Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,144 
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Post by Foggy on Jul 16, 2024 14:08:32 GMT
It doesn't particularly matter where in the N postcode area the poorly thought-through reckons are coming from. Parties have stood on a policy of abolishing Wales's devolved institutions and have uniformly done poorly. The Welsh electorate reckon that the Welsh Parliament is required, it makes very little difference that weld has his own uninformed opinions. Whilst there is a small minority of people in Wales who sincerely want a return to no devolution whatsoever and a slightly less small minority who genuinely want a directly elected First Minister but no Senedd, I think weld was just saying whatever he thought would be the most provocative thing possible in a thread on this topic and holds no strong opinion either way. We should stop indulging in such behaviour by ignoring it. |
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Jul 16, 2024 21:14:36 GMT
It doesn't particularly matter where in the N postcode area the poorly thought-through reckons are coming from. Parties have stood on a policy of abolishing Wales's devolved institutions and have uniformly done poorly. The Welsh electorate reckon that the Welsh Parliament is required, it makes very little difference that weld has his own uninformed opinions. Whilst there is a small minority of people in Wales who sincerely want a return to no devolution whatsoever and a slightly less small minority who genuinely want a directly elected First Minister but no Senedd, I think weld was just saying whatever he thought would be the most provocative thing possible in a thread on this topic and holds no strong opinion either way. We should stop indulging in such behaviour by ignoring it.Β My view is that it needs more powers: they need to be made to be a local education authority and a social care authority to bail out the 22 districts ("counties"). More responsibilities for them is the way forward. Let them be judged on how they deliver. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 19, 2024 10:15:56 GMT
The newly empowered Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru formerly known as the Local Democracy and Boundary Commission for Wales has announced its timetable for the pairing exercise for the new Senedd. July 19th 2024: Publication of "Da Rules" September 2024: Inital Recommendations December 2024: Secondary Recommendations based on consultation responses March 2025: Final Recommendations based on consultation responses And believes that the order of council will be done in May 2025, a year before the elections "Da Rules" have now been pubished: d34hss7hg6i3n.cloudfront.net/reviews/Senedd-Guide-to-the-Review-V3.pdfIt doesn't explicitly say that there needs to be road links between areas. The section most relevant to boundaries is this: |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,917
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Post by YL on Jul 19, 2024 12:13:21 GMT
Given those rules I think my arrangement would be as follows:
1. Ceredigion Preseli/Mid & South Pembrokeshire
2. Caerfyrddin/Llanelli
3. Dwyfor Meirionnydd/Ynys MΓ΄n
4. Bangor Aberconwy/Clwyd North
5. Clwyd East/Alyn & Deeside
6. Wrexham/Montgomeryshire & GlyndΕ΅r
7. Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe/Neath & Swansea East
8. Gower/Swansea West
9. Monmouthshire/Torfaen
10. Newport East/Newport West & Islwyn
11. Caerphilly/Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney
12. Cardiff East/Cardiff South & Penarth
13. Cardiff North/Cardiff West
14. Vale of Glamorgan/Bridgend
15. Pontypridd/Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare
16. Rhondda & Ogmore/Aberafan Maesteg
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Jul 19, 2024 13:35:38 GMT
Given those rules I think my arrangement would be as follows: 1. Ceredigion Preseli/Mid & South Pembrokeshire 2. Caerfyrddin/Llanelli 3. Dwyfor Meirionnydd/Ynys MΓ΄n 4. Bangor Aberconwy/Clwyd North 5. Clwyd East/Alyn & Deeside 6. Wrexham/Montgomeryshire & GlyndΕ΅r 7. Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe/Neath & Swansea East 8. Gower/Swansea West 9. Monmouthshire/Torfaen 10. Newport East/Newport West & Islwyn 11. Caerphilly/Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney 12. Cardiff East/Cardiff South & Penarth 13. Cardiff North/Cardiff West 14. Vale of Glamorgan/Bridgend 15. Pontypridd/Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare 16. Rhondda & Ogmore/Aberafan Maesteg That's more or less what I had β I'd pair 11/15 (Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare + Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney; Caerphilly + Pontypridd β makes more sense to have all the Cardiff exurbs from Llanharan to Caerphilly in one and the Heads of the Valleys in another) and 12/13 (Cardiff North + East; Cardiff West + South and Penarth β because it seems more sensible to put Cyncoed and Llanishen together; likewise Riverside and Grangetown) differently. The problem is of course that 3 is discontiguous, but I don't think that will sway them into doing the whole of North Wales the other way round. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 19, 2024 14:42:49 GMT
I'd probably pair Aberafan with Bridgend, Rhondda with Merthyr and Pontypridd with the Vale.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,067
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Post by nyx on Jul 19, 2024 15:16:41 GMT
That's more or less what I had β I'd pair 11/15 (Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare + Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney; Caerphilly + Pontypridd β makes more sense to have all the Cardiff exurbs from Llanharan to Caerphilly in one and the Heads of the Valleys in another) and 12/13 (Cardiff North + East; Cardiff West + South and Penarth β because it seems more sensible to put Cyncoed and Llanishen together; likewise Riverside and Grangetown) differently. The problem is of course that 3 is discontiguous, but I don't think that will sway them into doing the whole of North Wales the other way round. Well, it's only discontiguous by road. Of course if it wasn't for the regulations being what they are, one constituency covering all of the preserved county of Gwynedd would be ideal, but the pairing rules means Bangor has to stay with Aberconwy. In South Wales, the one thing I'd try to avoid is having to pair Aberavon with Rhondda, the links between the two are very poor. Rhondda+Pontypridd is the natural pairing; assuming we don't accept dividing Cardiff more than two ways, this implies Neath+Aberavon pairing and therefore having to pair Brecon with either Monmouthshire or Merthyr Tydfil. Which is a worse pairing for Brecon but better pairings for the others. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 19, 2024 15:18:35 GMT
We also have a date for the inital recommendations, September 3rd
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 19, 2024 15:31:11 GMT
That's more or less what I had β I'd pair 11/15 (Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare + Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney; Caerphilly + Pontypridd β makes more sense to have all the Cardiff exurbs from Llanharan to Caerphilly in one and the Heads of the Valleys in another) and 12/13 (Cardiff North + East; Cardiff West + South and Penarth β because it seems more sensible to put Cyncoed and Llanishen together; likewise Riverside and Grangetown) differently. The problem is of course that 3 is discontiguous, but I don't think that will sway them into doing the whole of North Wales the other way round. Well, it's only discontiguous by road. Of course if it wasn't for the regulations being what they are, one constituency covering all of the preserved county of Gwynedd would be ideal, but the pairing rules means Bangor has to stay with Aberconwy. In South Wales, the one thing I'd try to avoid is having to pair Aberavon with Rhondda, the links between the two are very poor. Rhondda+Pontypridd is the natural pairing; assuming we don't accept dividing Cardiff more than two ways, this implies Neath+Aberavon pairing and therefore having to pair Brecon with either Monmouthshire or Merthyr Tydfil. Which is a worse pairing for Brecon but better pairings for the others. That plan would leave the Vale of Glamorgan stranded. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,067
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Post by nyx on Jul 19, 2024 15:33:03 GMT
Well, it's only discontiguous by road. Of course if it wasn't for the regulations being what they are, one constituency covering all of the preserved county of Gwynedd would be ideal, but the pairing rules means Bangor has to stay with Aberconwy. In South Wales, the one thing I'd try to avoid is having to pair Aberavon with Rhondda, the links between the two are very poor. Rhondda+Pontypridd is the natural pairing; assuming we don't accept dividing Cardiff more than two ways, this implies Neath+Aberavon pairing and therefore having to pair Brecon with either Monmouthshire or Merthyr Tydfil. Which is a worse pairing for Brecon but better pairings for the others. That plan would leave the Vale of Glamorgan stranded. It'd be paired with Bridgend. |
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Jul 19, 2024 15:51:35 GMT
That's more or less what I had β I'd pair 11/15 (Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare + Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney; Caerphilly + Pontypridd β makes more sense to have all the Cardiff exurbs from Llanharan to Caerphilly in one and the Heads of the Valleys in another) and 12/13 (Cardiff North + East; Cardiff West + South and Penarth β because it seems more sensible to put Cyncoed and Llanishen together; likewise Riverside and Grangetown) differently. The problem is of course that 3 is discontiguous, but I don't think that will sway them into doing the whole of North Wales the other way round. Well, it's only discontiguous by road. Of course if it wasn't for the regulations being what they are, one constituency covering all of the preserved county of Gwynedd would be ideal, but the pairing rules means Bangor has to stay with Aberconwy. In South Wales, the one thing I'd try to avoid is having to pair Aberavon with Rhondda, the links between the two are very poor. Rhondda+Pontypridd is the natural pairing; assuming we don't accept dividing Cardiff more than two ways, this implies Neath+Aberavon pairing and therefore having to pair Brecon with either Monmouthshire or Merthyr Tydfil. Which is a worse pairing for Brecon but better pairings for the others. It's really not reasonable to have a constituency stretching from Pontardawe to Chepstow. Even before the boundary changes, the second-largest town in the Brecon and Radnor constituency was Ystradgynlais: the population of that constituency skews heavily south-west along the T6 bus route, even though it also contains very large remote rural areas that English people like to visit. The Maesteg half of Aberavon-Maesteg and the Ogmore half of Rhondda-Ogmore are perfectly well-connected and had always been in the same constituency as one another until the last boundary changes. There was always going to be some amorphous constituency in the middle of Glamorgan on these rules β it works quite nicely overall as a collection of small places that aren't any of the large towns around the periphery of Glamorgan; and there's a definite post-industrial village community of identity to the whole thing. |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 19, 2024 17:13:21 GMT
My plan:
Ynys MΓ΄n - Dwyfor Meirionydd *
Bangor Aberconwy - Clwyd North
Clwyd East - Alyn Deeside
Wrexham - Montgomeryshire
β------------------------
Ceredigion - Pembrokeshire
Caerfyrddin - Llanelli
-------------------------
Swansea West - Gower
Neath - Aberafan Maesteg
Bridgend - Vale of Glamorgan
Rhondda - Pontypridd
Merthyr - Caerphilly
Cardiff West - South
Cardiff North - East
--------------------------
Newport West Islwyn - Blaenau Gwent
Newport - Torfaen
Brecon - Monmouthshire
* alternatively Ynys MΓ΄n with Aberconwy and rotate all of the North Wales seats by 1
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 19, 2024 20:14:13 GMT
Well, it's only discontiguous by road. Of course if it wasn't for the regulations being what they are, one constituency covering all of the preserved county of Gwynedd would be ideal, but the pairing rules means Bangor has to stay with Aberconwy. In South Wales, the one thing I'd try to avoid is having to pair Aberavon with Rhondda, the links between the two are very poor. Rhondda+Pontypridd is the natural pairing; assuming we don't accept dividing Cardiff more than two ways, this implies Neath+Aberavon pairing and therefore having to pair Brecon with either Monmouthshire or Merthyr Tydfil. Which is a worse pairing for Brecon but better pairings for the others. It's really not reasonable to have a constituency stretching from Pontardawe to Chepstow. Even before the boundary changes, the second-largest town in the Brecon and Radnor constituency was Ystradgynlais: the population of that constituency skews heavily south-west along the T6 bus route, even though it also contains very large remote rural areas that English people like to visit. The Maesteg half of Aberavon-Maesteg and the Ogmore half of Rhondda-Ogmore are perfectly well-connected and had always been in the same constituency as one another until the last boundary changes. There was always going to be some amorphous constituency in the middle of Glamorgan on these rules β it works quite nicely overall as a collection of small places that aren't any of the large towns around the periphery of Glamorgan; and there's a definite post-industrial village community of identity to the whole thing. I don't think this is really true. the Tawe Valley and Ystradgynlais together are only about a third of the electorate of the constituency. Sure, Ystradgynlais is a larger place than most in the constituency, but that's because it is a constituency made up of an awful lot of very small places. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 21, 2024 11:59:19 GMT
Reading the rules carefully, I believe we are missing one very large piece of the puzzle on these pairs, namely:
Dwyfor can only be paired with Bangor Aberconwy or Ceredigion Preseli (Ynys Mon is an island, Montgomeryshire is too English)
Mid and South Pembrokeshire cannot be paired with anyone, unless the Welsh language is ignored
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2024 13:20:58 GMT
So by that logic Yns Mon can't be paired with anywhere and you're left with an odd number of seats
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 21, 2024 13:28:10 GMT
Reading the rules carefully, I believe we are missing one very large piece of the puzzle on these pairs, namely: Dwyfor can only be paired with Bangor Aberconwy or Ceredigion Preseli (Ynys Mon is an island, Montgomeryshire is too English) Whilst language will be considered itβs not being considered as protected or essential. Language isnβt a good enough reason to not pair Dwyfor and Montgomeryshire for example. FWIW I think it will get paired with Ynys Mon due to geographical proximity. |
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Jul 21, 2024 15:12:30 GMT
My plan: Ynys MΓ΄n - Dwyfor Meirionydd * Bangor Aberconwy - Clwyd North Clwyd East - Alyn Deeside Wrexham - Montgomeryshire β------------------------ Ceredigion - Pembrokeshire Caerfyrddin - Llanelli ------------------------- Swansea West - Gower Neath - Aberafan Maesteg Bridgend - Vale of Glamorgan Rhondda - Pontypridd Merthyr - Caerphilly Cardiff West - South Cardiff North - East -------------------------- Newport West Islwyn - Blaenau Gwent Newport - Torfaen Brecon - Monmouthshire * alternatively Ynys MΓ΄n with Aberconwy and rotate all of the North Wales seats by 1 Let me buy you a one-way ticket to Newport... |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 21, 2024 15:48:19 GMT
My plan: Ynys MΓ΄n - Dwyfor Meirionydd * Bangor Aberconwy - Clwyd North Clwyd East - Alyn Deeside Wrexham - Montgomeryshire β------------------------ Ceredigion - Pembrokeshire Caerfyrddin - Llanelli ------------------------- Swansea West - Gower Neath - Aberafan Maesteg Bridgend - Vale of Glamorgan Rhondda - Pontypridd Merthyr - Caerphilly Cardiff West - South Cardiff North - East -------------------------- Newport West Islwyn - Blaenau Gwent Newport - Torfaen Brecon - Monmouthshire * alternatively Ynys MΓ΄n with Aberconwy and rotate all of the North Wales seats by 1 Let me buy you a one-way ticket to Newport... The only contentious pairing is Brecon - which doesnt really fit well with anywhere....... At least it should be for single election only. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 21, 2024 16:04:47 GMT
... At least it should be for single election only. With the caveat that, in subsequent reviews, the statute requires the Commission to βseek to minimise the amount of change to the Senedd constituencies that exist on the review dateβ - i.e. the outcome of the first review will significantly affect the next review. |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 21, 2024 16:37:56 GMT
... At least it should be for single election only. With the caveat that, in subsequent reviews, the statute requires the Commission to βseek to minimise the amount of change to the Senedd constituencies that exist on the review dateβ - i.e. the outcome of the first review will significantly affect the next review. But changes will be permitted. So chop off the clumsy Cwmtawe appendage and everything becomes more feasible |
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