Prediction Competition - November 2021

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 33 by-elections during November.

- 6 by-elections on 4 November
- 5 on 11 November
- 9 on 18 November
- 12 on 25 November
- 1 on 30 November

20 by-elections are for District Councils, 14 last contested in 2019, 4 in May and 2 in 2018
7 are for a Metropolitan Councils last contested in May
2 are for Unitary Authorities, 1 last contested in May and 1 in 2019
2 are for Welsh authorities last contested in 2017
1 is in a London Borough last contested in 2018
1 is in a County Council last contested in 2017

Conservatives defend 7 of the by-election seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor, 4 a resignation and 1 a disqualification (sitting as an Independent within the Opposition Grouping)
Labour defend 14 seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor and 9 a resignation (1 of which was sitting as an Eco-Socialist, 1 an Independent and 1 Wandsworth Independent Alliance)
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Independents defend 4 seats, 3 following resignations and 1 a disqualification
Greens, Plaid Cymru, Brockworth First and Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern defend 1 seat apiece, all following resignations
Liberals defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With all candidates declared there is a full slate of 33 Conservative candidates, 29 Labour, 22 Liberal Democrats, 19 Greens, 3 Liberals, 2 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Women’s Equality Party, 1 Worker’s Party of Britain, 1 Tunbridge Wells Alliance and 1 Basildon Community Residents’ Party along with 8 Independents and 3 No Descriptions contesting 10 seats
- a total of 126 candidates for 33 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 2, 2021 16:41:48 GMT robbienicoll said:

There appears to be 31 by-elections during November.

- 6 by-elections on 4 November
- 5 on 11 November
- 9 on 18 November
- 10 on 25 November
- 1 on 30 November

18 by-elections are for District Councils, 13 last contested in 2019, 3 in May and 2 in 2018
7 are for a Metropolitan Councils last contested in May
2 are for Unitary Authorities, 1 last contested in May and 1 in 2019
2 are for Welsh authorities last contested in 2017
1 is in a London Borough last contested in 2018
1 is in a County Council last contested in 2017

Conservatives defend 5 of the by-election seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor, 3 a resignation and 1 a disqualification (sitting as an Independent within the Opposition Grouping)
Labour defend 14 seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor and 9 a resignation (1 of which was sitting as an Eco-Socialist, 1 an Independent and 1 Wandsworth Independent Alliance)
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Independents defend 4 seats, 3 following resignations and 1 a disqualification
Greens, Plaid Cymru, Brockworth First and Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern defend 1 seat apiece, all following resignations
Liberals defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With the contest on the 30th still to announce candidates, there is a full slate of 30 Conservative candidates, 26 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrats, 19 Greens, 3 Liberals, 2 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Women’s Equality Party, 1 Worker’s Party of Britain and 1 Basildon Community Residents’ Party along with 7 Independents and 3 No Descriptions contesting 9 seats
- a total of 116 candidates for 30 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

There's 11 on 25th now- extra one in Tunbridge Wells, Conservative defence after a death, Con-lab- Tunbridge Wells Alliance contest. Was last contested this May.

[robbienicoll]

Nov 2, 2021 17:31:48 GMT Tony Otim said:

Nov 2, 2021 16:41:48 GMT robbienicoll said:

*Snip*

There's 11 on 25th now- extra one in Tunbridge Wells, Conservative defence after a death, Con-lab- Tunbridge Wells Alliance contest. Was last contested this May.

Thank you, now amended.

[yellowperil]

I have decided I will take a break from the prediction competition for a bit at least.Am pondering whether to extend that to the forum as a whole- well maybe.

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

Nov 2, 2021 22:11:49 GMT yellowperil said:

I have decided I will take a break from the prediction competition for a bit at least.Am pondering whether to extend that to the forum as a whole- well maybe.

Rejoin soon. 

[andykernow]

Gloucester - Longlevens - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Green - 20%
Conservative - 35%
Labour - 7%
Lib Dem - 38%

Huntingdonshire - Huntingdon East - Con Gain from Lib Dem

Conservative - 52%
Lib Dem - 48%

Rutland - Oakham North - Con Gain from Ind

Conservative - 68%
Labour - 32%

Salford - Blackfriars - Lab Hold

Lib Dem - 12%
Conservative - 14%
Green - 32%
Labour - 42%

West Lancashire - North Meols - Lab gain from Con

Conservative - 48%
Labour - 52%

West Sussex - Bourne - Con Hold

Labour - 14%
Conservative - 48%
Lib Dem - 29%
Green - 9%

[Richard Cromwell]

Longlevens, Gloucester

GRN	37%
LD	34%
CON	23%
LAB	6%

Huntingdon East, Huntingdonshire

LD	67%
CON	33%

Oakham North, Rutland

CON	54%
LAB	46%

Blackfriars, Salford

GRN	43%
LAB	41%
LD	9%
CON	7%

North Meols, West Lancashire

LAB	59%
CON	41%

Bourne, West Sussex

LD	34%
CON	32%
GRN	23%
LAB	11%

[peterl]

Gloucester - Longlevens - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Lib Dem - 44%
Conservative - 32%
Green - 19%
Labour - 5%

Huntingdonshire - Huntingdon East - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 54%
Conservative - 46%

Rutland - Oakham North - Con Gain from Ind

Conservative - 64%
Labour - 36%

Salford - Blackfriars - Lab Hold

Labour - 44%
Green - 30%
Lib Dem - 15%
Conservative - 11%

West Lancashire - North Meols - Lab gain from Con

Labour - 55%
Conservative - 45%

West Sussex - Bourne - Con Hold

Conservative - 46%
Lib Dem - 31%
Green - 13%
Labour - 10%

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

GLOUCESTER DC; Longlevens
Conservative – 46%
Liberal Democrat – 42%
Labour – 8%
Green – 4%

HUNTINGDONSHIRE DC; Huntingdon East
Liberal Democrat – 60%
Conservative – 40%

RUTLAND UA; Oakham North West
Conservative – 65%
Labour – 35%

SALFORD MBC; Blackfriars & Trinity
Labour – 57%
Green – 30%
Conservative – 8%
Liberal Democrat – 5%

WEST LANCASHIRE DC; North Meols
Conservative 53%
Labour 47%

WEST SUSSEX CC; Bourne
Conservative – 47%
Liberal Democrat – 38%
Green – 8%
Labour – 7%

[andrewp]

Gloucester, Longlevens. LD 47, Con 40, Lab 8, Green 5
Huntingdonshire, Huntingdon East. LD 57, Con 43
Rutland, Oakham North Wesr. Con 68, Lab 32
Salford, Blackfriars and Trinity Lab 61, Green 23, Con 10, LD 6
West Lancashire, North Meols. Con 54, Lab 46
West Sussex, Bourne. Con 46, LD 38, Green 9, Lab 7

[greenhert]

Gloucester BC, Longlevens: Liberal Democrats 44, Conservative 40, Labour 11, Green 5. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East: Liberal Democrats 55, Conservative 45.
Rutland UA, Oakham North West: Conservative 62, Labour 38.
Salford MBC, Blackfriars & Trinity: Labour 54, Green 29, Conservative 12, Liberal Democrats 5.
West Lancashire DC, North Meols: Labour 52, Conservative 48. Labour gain from Conservative.
West Sussex CC, Bourne: Conservative 46, Liberal Democrats 38, Green 9, Labour 7.

[Tony Otim]

Gloucester: LD 42.5; Con 41.3; Lab 10.5; Grn 5.7
Huntingdonshire: LD 52.3; Con 47.7
Rutland: Con 68.9; Lab 31.1
Salford: Lab 63.2; LD 17.8; Grn 10.6; Con 8.4
West Lancs: Con 55.6; Lab 44.4
West Sussex: Con 45.7; LD 36.8; Grn 9.9; Lab 7.6

[Terry Weldon]

Nov 2, 2021 22:11:49 GMT yellowperil said:

I have decided I will take a break from the prediction competition for a bit at least.Am pondering whether to extend that to the forum as a whole- well maybe.

Will miss your input  - but do what is best for yourself.

[Robert Waller]

Gloucester, Longlevens. LD 47, Con 41, Lab 8, Green 4
Huntingdonshire, Huntingdon East. LD 60, Con 40
Rutland, Oakham North West. Con 71, Lab 29
Salford, Blackfriars and Trinity Lab 61, Green 23, Con 8, LD 8
West Lancashire, North Meols. Con 51, Lab 49
West Sussex, Bourne. Con 45, LD 35, Green 13, Lab 7

[European Lefty]

Longlevens (Gloucester): Con 45 LD 40 Lab 13 Grn 2
Huntingdon East (Huntingdonshire): LD 55 Con 45
Oakham NW (Rutland): Con 67 Lab 33
Blackfriars & Trinity (Salford): Lab 60 Grn 17 Con 15 LD 8
N Meols (W Lancs): Con 53 Lab 47
Bourne (W Sussex): Con 42 LD 33 Grn 22 Lab 3

[Toylyyev]

Gloucester DC, Longlevens:
Conservative 42, Labour 7, Liberal Democrat 47, Green 4.

Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East:
Conservative 43, Liberal Democrat 57.

Rutland UA, Oakham North West:
Conservative 47, Labour 53.

Salford MBC, Blackfriars and Trinity:
Conservative 6, Labour 55.5, Liberal Democrat 25, Green 13.5.

West Lancashire DC, North Meols:
Conservative 44, Labour 56.

West Sussex CC, Bourne:
Conservative 43, Labour 4, Liberal Democrat 45, Green 8.

[agbutler]

Longlevens (Gloucester): LD 46 Con 39 Lab 10 Grn 5
Huntingdon East (Huntingdonshire): LD 57 Con 43
Oakham NW (Rutland): Con 54 Lab 46
Blackfriars & Trinity (Salford): Lab 50 Grn 31 Con 12 LD 7
N Meols (W Lancs): Lab 57 Con 43
Bourne (W Sussex): LD 35 Con 30 Grn 23 Lab 12

[casualobserver]

Gloucester, Longlevens: LD 43, Con 38, Grn 11, Lab 8
Huntingdonshire, Huntingdon East: Con 54, LD 46
Rutland, Oakham North West: Con 69, Lab 31
Salford, Blackfriars and Trinity: Lab 55, Grn 26, Con 10, LD 9
West Lancashire, North Meols: Con 54, Lab 46
West Sussex, Bourne: Con 44, LD 35, Grn 13, Lab 8

[rightleaning]

Gloucester, Longlevens. LD 47, C 39, Lab 9, Gn 5
Huntingdonshire, Huntingdon East. LD 58, C 42
Rutland, Oakham North West. C 67, Lab 33
Salford, Blackfriars and Trinity Lab 55, Gn 23, C 14, LD 8
West Lancashire, North Meols. C 52, Lab 48
West Sussex, Bourne. C 42, LD 38, Gn 14, Lab 6

[iainbhx]

Gloucester DC, Longlevens: LDm 44, Con 42, Lab 9, Grn 5
Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East: LDm 57, Con 43
Rutland DC, Oakham North West: Con 61, Lab 39
Salford MBC, Blackfriars and Trinity: Lab 56, Grn 28, Con 10, LDm 6
West Lancashire DC, North Meols: Con 53, Lab 47
West Sussex CC, Bourne: Con 46, LDm 32, Grn 17, Lab 5