Prediction Competition - November 2021

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to greenhert for the week

[The Bishop]

Nov 12, 2021 9:35:41 GMT robbienicoll said:

Results are now up. Pity we didn't have the pair in North Kesteven but also thankful I didn't have to work out the faults for lot drawing!

Has that ever happened before in the competition?

[robbienicoll]

Nov 12, 2021 10:41:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 12, 2021 9:35:41 GMT robbienicoll said:

Results are now up. Pity we didn't have the pair in North Kesteven but also thankful I didn't have to work out the faults for lot drawing!

Has that ever happened before in the competition?

It has, but I was a competitor and not mod, think it was in Thurrock iirc.

Edit - just checked, it was Thurrock, March 2018 competition.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Nov 12, 2021 9:40:53 GMT Tony Otim said:

Congratulations to greenhert for the week

Seconded.

Weird week for me, 2 x best predictions (1 joint) and 2 x howlers.

[Toylyyev]

Nov 12, 2021 9:35:41 GMT robbienicoll said:

Results are now up. Pity we didn't have the pair in North Kesteven but also thankful I didn't have to work out the faults for lot drawing_(my underscore)!

Ring fault?

[peterl]

CANTERBURY DC Gorrell Ward: Green 37%, Labour 34%, Con 27%, Workers 2%
LIVERPOOL MBC Anfield Ward: Labour 62%, Liberal 14%, Green 10%, ND 6%, Con 5%, Lib Dem 3%
LIVERPOOL MBC Clubmoor Ward: Labour 53%, Liberal 19%, Green 10%, Ind 8%, Lib Dem 5%, Con 3%, TUSC 2%
LIVERPOOL MBC Kirkdale Ward: Labour 58%, Green 18%, TUSC 10%, Ind 7%, Con 4%, Lib Dem 3%
MANCHESTER MBC Chorlton Ward: Labour 55%, Green 25%, Con 11%, Lib Dem 6%, WEP 3%
RYEDALE DC Cropton Ward: Liberal 50%, Green 27%, Con 18%, Labour 5%
SOUTH RIBBLE DC Bamber Bridge East Ward: Labour 45%, Con 40%, Green 15%
TEWKESBURY DC Brockworth East Ward: ND 42%, Con 36%, Lib Dem 14%, Labour 8%
WEST DEVON DC Bere Ferrers Ward: Lib Dem 38%, Con 34%, Green 17%, Labour 11%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Confidence low

CANTERBURY DC; Gorrell
Green – 38%
Labour – 37%
Conservative – 23.6%
Workers Party of Britain – 1.4%

LIVERPOOL MBC
Labour – 65%
Liberal Party – 13%
Green – 10%
Conservative – 6%
Liberal Democrat - 4%
No Description – 2%

LIVERPOOL MBC; Clubmoor
Labour – 60%
Liberal Party – 21%
Green – 8%
Liberal Democrat – 5%
Conservative – 3.4%
Independent – 1.4%
TUSC – 1.2%

LIVERPOOL MBC; Kirkdale
Labour – 58.5%
Green – 13%
Liberal Democrats – 12.5%
TUSC – 10%
Conservative – 5%
No Description – 1%

MANCHESTER MBC; Chorlton
Labour – 66%
Green – 21%
Conservative – 5.5%
Liberal Democrats – 4.5%
Women’s Equality Party – 2.5%
Independent – 0.5%

RYEDALE DC; Cropton
Liberal Party – 48%
Conservative – 45%
Green – 4%
Labour – 3%

SOUTH RIBBLE DC; Bamber Bridge East
Labour – 55%
Conservative – 37%
Green – 8%

TEWKESBURY DC; Brockworth East
No Description – 44%
Conservative – 35%
Liberal Democrat – 13%
Labour – 8%

Independent - 0%

WEST DEVON DC; Bere Ferrers
Conservative – 40%
Liberal Democrat - 36%
Labour – 20%
Green – 4%

[Richard Cromwell]

Gorrell, Canterbury

GRN	46%
LAB	35%
CON	19%
Workers	0%

Anfield, Liverpool

Liberal	37%
LAB	36%
No Description	11%
GRN	8%
LD	7%
CON	1%

Clubmoor, Liverpool

LAB	46%
Liberal	24%
GRN	16%
LD	7%
IND	4%
TUSC	2%
CON	1%

Kirkdale, Liverpool

LAB	67%
IND	11%
GRN	10%
LD	7%
TUSC	4%
CON	1%

Chorlton, Manchester

LAB	43%
GRN	34%
LD	16%
CON	6%
Women's Equality	1%

Cropton, Ryedale

Liberal	62%
GRN	29%
CON	5%
LAB	4%

Bamber Bridge East, South Ribble

LAB	42%
GRN	39%
LAB	19%

Brockworth, Tewkesbury

CON	39%
LD	29%
No Description	20%
LAB	12%

Bere Ferrers, West Devon

GRN	40%
LD	39%
CON	13%
LAB	8%

[greenhert]

Canterbury DC, Gornell: Green 45, Labour 36, Conservative 17, Workers Party of Britain 2. Green gain from Labour.
Liverpool MBC, Anfield: Labour 69, Green 10, Liberal 8, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservative 4, Independent (Hetherington) 3.
Liverpool MBC, Clubmoor: Labour 62, Liberal 16, Green 8, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservative 4, TUSC 2, Independent (Wharton) 2.
Liverpool MBC, Kirkdale: Labour 60, TUSC 14, Green 11, Liberal Democrats 7, Conservative 5, Peter Furmedge 3.
Manchester MBC, Chorlton: Labour 44, Green 35, Conservative 10, Liberal Democrats 5, WEP 3, Independent (Harnett) 3.
Ryedale DC, Cropton: Liberal 50, Conservative 40, Green 6, Labour 4.
South Ribble DC, Bamber Bridge East: Labour 48, Conservative 42, Green 10.
Tewkesbury DC< Brockworth East: Charlotte Mills 50, Conservative 34, Liberal Democrats 10, Labour 6. No Description gain from Brockworth First.
West Devon DC, Bere Ferrers: Liberal Democrats 42, Conservative 37, Green 14, Labour 7.

[andrewp]

Canterbury, Gorrell. Lab 40, Green 37, Con 22, Workers 1
Liverpool, Anfield. Lab 65, Liberal 11, Green 11, LD 6, Con 4, Heatherington 3.
Liverpool, Clubmoor.. Lab 62,  Liberal 16, Green 7, LD 6, Wharton 4, Con 3, TUSC 2
Liverpool. Kirkdale, Lab 62, Green 13, TUSC 8, LD8, Furmedge 5, Con 4
Manchester. Chorlton. Lab 65, Green 15, Con 6, LD 6, Harnett 5, WEP 3
Ryedale. Cropton. Lib 46, Con 37, Green 12, Lab 5
South Ribble, Bamber Bridge East. Lab 52, Con 40, Green 8
Tewkesbury. Brockworth East. Mills 40, Con 35, LD 16, Lab 9.
West Devon, Bere Ferrers. LD 40, Con 37, Green 14, Lab 9

[Tony Otim]

Canterbury Gorrel: Lab 40.1; Grn 36.8; Con 22.0; Workers 1.1
Liverpool Anfield: Lab 60.5; Grn 13.9; Lib 9.4; LD 6.5; Con 4.9; Heatherington 4.8
Liverpool Clubmoor: Lab 56.1; Lib 21.4; LD 7.3; Grn 7.0; Con 3.4; Wharton 2.6; TUSC 2.2
Liverpool Kirkdale: Lab 57.5; TUSC 13.4; Grn 11.7; LD 10.4; Con 4.6; Furmedge 2.5
Manchester Chorlton: Lab 57.5; Grn 27.5; LD 6.9; Con 5.4; WEP 2.0; Harnett 0.7
Ryedale Cropton: Lib 50.7; Con 30.2; LD 11.8; Grn 7.3
South Ribble Bamber Bridge East: Lab 49.4; Con 44.8; grn 5.8
Tewkesbury Brockworth East: Mills 38.6; Con 33.0; Lab 19.5; LD 8.9
West Devon Bere Ferrers: Con 37.1; LD 27.1; Grn 22.7; Lab 13.1

[Adam in Stroud]

I think we (LDs) will do better in Brockworth than most of these predictions.

[Robert Waller]

Canterbury, Gorrell. Lab 39, Green 37, Con 22, Workers 2
Liverpool, Anfield. Lab 68, Liberal 11, Green 11, LD 4, Con 4, Heatherington 2.
Liverpool, Clubmoor.. Lab 61, Liberal 17, Green 8, LD 3, Wharton 5, Con 4, TUSC 2
Liverpool. Kirkdale, Lab 62, Green 12, TUSC 9, LD 7, Furmedge 6, Con 4
Manchester. Chorlton. Lab 61, Green 23, Con 5, LD 4, Harnett 5, WEP 2
Ryedale. Cropton. Lib 53, Con 32, Green 10, Lab 5
South Ribble, Bamber Bridge East. Lab 47, Con 46, Green 7
Tewkesbury. Brockworth East. Mills 31, Con 29, LD 23, Lab 17.
West Devon, Bere Ferrers. LD 38, Con 39, Green 18, Lab 5

[ricmk]

Oh why not? Not going to pretend I have done a lot of research  though:

Canterbury: Lab 46, Green 32, Con 18, Workers 4
Liverpool (Anfield): Lab 60, Green 15 Liberal 10, Con 8 LD 5, Ind 2
Liverpool (Clubmoor): Lab 58, Liberal 25, Lib Dem 7, Green 4, Con 3, Ind 2, TUSC 1
Liverpool (Kirkdale): Lab 65, TUSC 12, Green 12, Con 5, LD 4, Ind 2
Manchester: Lab 50, LD 25, Green 15, Con 7, Ind 2 WEP 1 (I've seen lots of Lib Dem activity online here, including a Layla Moran visit so I think LDs will do better than some of the other thoughts here.)
Ryedale: Con 43 Lib 41, Green 12, Lab 4
South Ribble: Lab 55, Con 40, Green 5
Tewkesbury: Taking Adam in Stroud at his word let's say LD 35 Ind 30 Con 30, Lab 5
West Devon: LD 41, Con 39, Green 15, Lab 5

[Toylyyev]

Canterbury DC, Gorrell:
Conservative 26, Labour 35.1, Green 35, Workers Party of Britain 3.9.

Liverpool MBC, Anfield:
Conservative 4.5, Labour 60, Liberal Democrat 19, Green 5.5, The Liberal Party 10, No Description 1.
Clubmoor:
Conservative 3.5, Labour 51, Liberal Democrat 4.5, Green 4.5, The Liberal Party 24.5, TUSC 1.5, Independent 10.5.
Kirkdale:
Conservative 4, Labour 24, Liberal Democrat 3.5, Green 8.5, TUSC 4.5, No Description 55.5.

Manchester MBC, Chorlton:
Conservative 5, Labour 50, Liberal Democrat 28.5, Green 14, Women’s Equality Party 1.5, Independent 1.

Ryedale DC, Cropton:
Conservative 27, Labour 9, Green 21, The Liberal Party 43.

South Ribble DC, Bamber Bridge East:
Conservative 45.5, Labour 50.5, Green 4.

Tewkesbury DC, Brockworth East:
Conservative 20, Labour 12, Liberal Democrat 35, No Description 33.

West Devon DC, Bere Ferrers:
Conservative 39, Labour 18, Liberal Democrat 36, Green 7.

[agbutler]

Canterbury, Gorrell. Lab 41, Green 40, Con 17, Workers 2
Liverpool, Anfield. Lab 63, Liberal 9, Green 13, LD 4, Con 4, Heatherington 7.
Liverpool, Clubmoor. Lab 58, Liberal 13, Green 10, LD 5, Wharton 8, Con 4, TUSC 2
Liverpool. Kirkdale, Lab 59, Green 15, TUSC 7, LD 7, Furmedge 6, Con 6
Manchester. Chorlton. Lab 55, Green 25, Con 5, LD 6, Harnett 5, WEP 4
Ryedale. Cropton. Lib 43, Con 30, Green 14, Lab 13
South Ribble, Bamber Bridge East. Lab 47, Con 43, Green 10
Tewkesbury. Brockworth East. Mills 29, Con 28, LD 27, Lab 16.
West Devon, Bere Ferrers. LD 30, Con 25, Green 16, Lab 29

[rightleaning]

Canterbury, Gorrell. Lab 43, Gn 37, C 19, Workers 1
Liverpool, Anfield. Lab 66, Gn 13, LD 9, Liberal 4, C 4, ND 4.
Liverpool, Clubmoor. Lab 62, LD 16, Green 10, C 5, Liberal 3, Ind 3, TUSC 1
Liverpool. Kirkdale, Lab 62, Gn 15, LD 9, C 6, TUSC 5, ND 3,
Manchester. Chorlton. Lab 58, Gn 19, C 10, LD 8, Ind 4, WEP 1
Ryedale. Cropton. Lib 49, C 30, Gn 14, Lab 7
South Ribble, Bamber Bridge East. Lab 48, C 44, Green 8
Tewkesbury. Brockworth East. LD 31, ND 29, C 28, Lab 12
West Devon, Bere Ferrers. C 35, LD 30, Gn 20, Lab 15

[Tony Otim]

Nov 17, 2021 22:27:02 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

I think we (LDs) will do better in Brockworth than most of these predictions.

You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Nov 18, 2021 6:59:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

Nov 17, 2021 22:27:02 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

I think we (LDs) will do better in Brockworth than most of these predictions.

You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments.

Or before any predictions. 😉

Not changing mine though, as it would be daft to. 

[andykernow]

CANTERBURY DC; Gorrell - Green Gain from Labour
Green – 38%
Labour – 36%
Conservative – 23%
Workers Party of Britain – 3%

LIVERPOOL - Anfield. - Labour Hold
Labour – 60%
Liberal Party – 20%
Green – 8%
Liberal Democrat - 8%
Conservative – 4%
No Description – 2%

LIVERPOOL MBC; Clubmoor - Labour Hold
Labour – 55%
Liberal Party – 20%
Green – 8%
Liberal Democrat – 8%
Conservative – 4%
TUSC - 3%
Independent – 2%

LIVERPOOL MBC; Kirkdale - Labour Hold
Labour – 56%
Green – 20%
Liberal Democrats – 11%
Conservative - 6%
TUSC –4%
No Description – 3%

MANCHESTER MBC; Chorlton - Labour Hold
Labour – 52%
Independent - 12%
Green – 11%
Conservative – 10%
Liberal Democrats – 9%
Women’s Equality Party – 6%

RYEDALE DC; Cropton - Liberal Party Hold
Liberal Party – 42%
Conservative – 20%
Green – 20%
Labour – 18%

SOUTH RIBBLE DC; Bamber Bridge East - Conservative Gain from Labour
Labour – 40%
Conservative – 38%
Green –22%

TEWKESBURY DC; Brockworth East - Conservative gain from BF
Conservative - 32%
No Description – 31%
Liberal Democrat – 22%
Labour – 15%
Independent - 0%

WEST DEVON DC; Bere Ferrers - Liberal Democrat Hold
Liberal Democrat - 43%
Conservative – 30%
Green - 14%
Labour – 13%