Prediction Competition - November 2021

[Toylyyev]

Hopefully nobody will miss out on the 30/11 Tuesday by-election in Wyre Forest after 32 predictions!

Further reminders wanted.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

For the 25th

ALLERDALE DC; Maryport South
Labour – 42%
Independent – 38%
Conservative - 20%

BASILDON DC; Lee Chapel North
Labour – 40%
Conservative – 38%
Basildon Community Residents Party – 15%
Reform UK – 4%
Liberal Democrat – 3%

HALTON UA; Halton Castle
Labour – 50%
Independent - 23%
Conservative – 17%
Liberal Democrat – 7%
Green – 3%

HAMBLETON DC; Raskelf & White Horse
Conservative – 49.5%
Green - 48%
Liberal Democrat – 2.5%

LANCASTER DC; Carnforth & MIllhead
Labour – 43%
Conservative – 38%
Green – 15%
Liberal Democrat – 4%

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME DC; Knutton
Labour – 60%
Conservative - 40%

NUNEATON & BEDWORTH DC; Bar Pool
Conservative – 45%
Labour – 40%
Green – 15%

TUNBRIDGE WELLS DC; Speldhurst & Bidborough
Tunbridge Wells Alliance – 55%
Conservative – 37%
Labour - 8%

WANDSWORTH LBC; Bedford
Labour – 44%
Conservative – 32%
Green – 19%
Liberal Democrat – 5%

WEST SUFFOLK DC; Horringer
Conservative - 60%
Labour – 32%
Liberal Democrat – 8%

WIGAN MBC; Bryn
FAIRHURST, (Independent) – 35%
RICHARDSON, (Independent) – 30%
Labour – 25%
Conservative – 8%
Liberal Democrat – 2%
COOKSON, John (Indepedent)

WIRRAL MBC; Oxton
Liberal Democrat - 56%
Labour – 25%
Green – 12%
Conservative – 7%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

For 30th

WYRE FOREST DC; Franche & Habberley North
Independent – 33%
Conservative – 28%
Labour- 27%
Liberal Democrat – 12%

[andykernow]

For the 25th

ALLERDALE - Maryport Independent gain from Non Affiliated

Independent - 41%
Labour - 38%
Conservative - 21%

BASILDON - Le Chapel - Conservative gain from Labour

Conservative - 33%
Labour - 32%
BCRP - 20%
Reform UK - 10%
Liberal Democrat - 5%

HALTON - Halton Castle - Labour Hold

Labour - 52%
Independent - 20%
Conservative - 18%
Green - 5.1%
Liberal Democrat 4.9%

HAMBLETON - Raskell - Green Gain from Conservative

Green - 41%
Conservative - 38%
Liberal Democrat - 21%

LANCASTER - Carnforth - Conservative Gain from Labour

Conservative - 39%
Labour - 36%
Green - 21%
Liberal Democrat - 4%

NEWCASTLE Under Lyme - Knutton - Labour Hold

Labour - 59%
Conservative 41%

NUNEATON - Bar Pool - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 50%
Labour - 29%
Green - 21%

TUNBRIDGE - Speldhurst - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 41%
TWA - 36%
Labour - 23%

WANDSWORTH - Belford - Labour Hold

Labour - 48%
Conservative - 29%
Green - 18%
Liberal Democrat - 5%

WEST SUFFOLK - Horringer - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 53%
Labour - 28&
Liberal Democrat - 19%

WIGAN - Bryn - Ind gain from Ind

Independent F - 58%
Labour - 20%
Conservative - 14%
Liberal Democrat - 5%
Independent R - 3%

WIRRAL - Oxton - Liberal Democrat Hold

Liberal Democrat - 54%
Labour - 20%
Green - 15%
Conservative - 11%

[andykernow]

And for 30th

WYRE FOREST - Franche - Ind gain from IKHC

Independent - 44%
Conservative - 24%
Labour - 22%
Liberal Democrat - 10%

[Tony Otim]

Allerdale: Galletly 46.2; Lab 42.5; Con 11.3
Basildon: Con 37.8; Lab 37.3; BCRP 13.6; RefUK 6.0; LD 5.3
Halton: Lab 57.2; Whyte 15.5; Con 14.4; LD 8.9; Grn 4.0
Hambleton: Con 56.6; LD 23.0; Grn 20.4
Lancaster: Con 41.2; Lab 37.8; Grn 12.2; LD 8.8
Newcastle Under Lyme: Con 56.5; Lab 43.5
Nuneaton & Bedworth: Con 56.4; Lab 33.4; Grn 10.2
Tunbridge Wells: TWA 49.8; Con 41.5; Lab 8.7
Wandsworth: Lab 51.6; Con 28.0; Grn 14.3; LD 6.1
West Suffolk: Con 62.8; Lab 20.1; LD 17.0
Wigan: Richardson 37.5; Lab 34.4; Fairhurst 15.7; Con 9.4; LD 3.0
Wirral: LD 60.0; Lab 26.8; Grn 6.8; Con 6.3

[Richard Cromwell]

Maryport, Allerdale

LAB	39%
IND	32%
CON	29%

Le Chapel, Basildon

Residents	28%
LAB	27%
CON	26%
LD	13%
Reform	6%

Halton Castle, Halton

LAB	48%
IND	25%
CON	13%
GRN	9%
LD	5%

Raskell, Hambleton

GRN	55%
CON	23%
LD	22%

Canforth, Lancaster

LAB	35%
CON	31%
GRN	30%
LD	4%

Knutton, Newcastle Under Lyme

LAB	63%
CON	37%

Bar Pool, Nuneaton

CON	37%
GRN	34%
LAB	29%

Speldhurst, Tunbridge

Alliance	44%
CON	31%
LAB	25%

Belford, Wandsworth

LAB	49%
CON	23%
GRN	22%
LD	6%

Horringer, West Suffolk

CON	40%
LD	34%
LAB	26%

CON	29%
Gareth Fairhurst	28%
LAB	27%
James Richardson	12%
LD	4%

Oxton, Wirral

LD	51%
GRN	25%
LAB	18%
CON	6%

[peterl]

ALLERDALE - Maryport Independent gain from Non Affiliated

Independent - 45%
Labour - 36%
Conservative - 19%

BASILDON - Le Chapel - Labour Hold

Labour - 32%
Conservative - 27%
BCRP - 22%
Reform UK - 12%
Liberal Democrat - 7%

HALTON - Halton Castle - Labour Hold

Labour - 49%
Independent - 28%
Conservative - 12%
Green - 7%
Liberal Democrat 4%

HAMBLETON - Raskell - Green Gain from Conservative

Green - 44%
Conservative - 38%
Liberal Democrat - 18%

LANCASTER - Carnforth - Conservative Gain from Labour

Conservative - 39%
Labour - 31%
Green - 25%
Liberal Democrat - 5%

NEWCASTLE Under Lyme - Knutton - Labour Hold

Labour - 56%
Conservative 44%

NUNEATON - Bar Pool - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 48%
Labour - 28%
Green - 24%

TUNBRIDGE - Speldhurst - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 42%
TWA - 38%
Labour - 20%

WANDSWORTH - Belford - Labour Hold

Labour - 45%
Conservative - 26%
Green - 22%
Liberal Democrat - 7%

WEST SUFFOLK - Horringer - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 50%
Labour - 29%
Liberal Democrat - 21%

WIGAN - Bryn - Ind gain from Ind

Independent F - 52%
Labour - 26%
Conservative - 12%
Liberal Democrat - 6%
Independent R - 4%

WIRRAL - Oxton - Liberal Democrat Hold

Liberal Democrat - 55%
Labour - 20%
Green - 17%
Conservative - 8%

[greenhert]

Allerdale DC, Maryport South: Independent (Galletly) 45, Conservative 25, Labour 20. Independent gain from another Independent.
Basildon BC, Lee Chapel North: Labour 47, Conservative 30, Basildon Community Residents Party 15, Liberal Democrats 6, Reform UK 2.
Halton UA, Halton Castle: Labour 60, Independent (White) 15, Conservative 14, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 5.
Hambleton DC, Raskelf & White Horse: Green 48, Conservative 44, Liberal Democrats 8. Green gain from Conservative.
Lancaster DC, Carnforth & Millhead: Labour 46, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 7.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Knutton: Labour 66, Conservative 34.
Nuneaton & Bedworth BC, Bar Pool: Conservative 45, Labour 44, Green 11. Conservative gain from Labour.
Tunbridge Wells DC, Speldhurst & Bidborough: Tunbridge Wells Alliance 48, Conservative 37, Labour 15. Tunbridge Wells Alliance gain from Conservative.
Wandsworth LBC, Bedford: Labour 56, Conservative 27, Green 11, Liberal Democrats 6.
West Suffolk DC, Horringer: Conservative 50, Liberal Democrats 38, Labour 12.
Wigan MBC, Bryn: Independent (Fairhurst) 38, Independent (Richardson) 24, Labour 22, Conservative 13, Liberal Democrats 3. Independent gain from another Independent.
Wirral MBC, Oxton: Liberal Democrats 58, Labour 24, Conservative 11, Green 7.

[andrewp]

Allerdale. Maryport South Ind 47, Lab 43, Con 10
Basildon. Lee Chapel North. Lab 40, Con 35, BCR 16, LD 5, RefUk 4
Halton, Halton Castle. Lab 49, Ind 19, Con 15, LD 10: Green 7
Hambleton. Raskelf and White Horse. Con 50, Green 33, LD 17
Lancaster. Carnforth and Millhead. Lab 45, Con 33, Green 14, LD 8
Newcastle under Lyme. Knutton. Lab 58, Con 42
Nuneaton and Bedworth, Barpool. Con 49, Lab 38, Green 13.
Tunbridge Wells, Speldhurst and Bidborough. TWA 51, Con 42, Lab 7.
Wandsworth. Bedford. Lab 50, Con 30, Green 14, LD 6
West Suffolk. Horringer. Con 55, Ld 27, Lab 18
Wigan. Bryn. Richardson 38, Lab 26, Fairhurst 26, Con 7, LD 3
Wirral. Oxton. LD 51, Lab 30, Green 10, Con 9

[Robert Waller]

Allerdale, Maryport South Ind 45, Lab 35, Con 20
Basildon, Lee Chapel North. Lab 43, Con 35, BCR 15, LD 5, Ref UK 2
Halton, Halton Castle. Lab 62, Ind 22, Con 8, LD 4: Green 4
Hambleton. Raskelf and White Horse. Con 50, Green 35, LD 15
Lancaster, Carnforth and Millhead. Lab 38, Con 32, Green 15, LD 15
Newcastle under Lyme, Knutton. Lab 40, Con 60
Nuneaton and Bedworth, Barpool. Con 48, Lab 39, Green 13.
Tunbridge Wells, Speldhurst and Bidborough. TWA 48, Con 45, Lab 7.
Wandsworth, Bedford. Lab 48, Con 28, Green 18, LD 6
West Suffolk, Horringer. Con 55, LD 30, Lab 15
Wigan, Bryn. Richardson 32, Lab 25, Fairhurst 33, Con 6, LD 4
Wirral, Oxton. LD 62, Lab 26, Green 6, Con 6

[agbutler]

Allerdale, Maryport South Lab 47, Ind 40, Con 13
Basildon, Lee Chapel North. Lab 45, Con 30, BCR 15, LD 5, Ref UK 5
Halton, Halton Castle. Lab 65, Green 20, Ind 10, Con 3, LD 2
Hambleton. Raskelf and White Horse. Green, 46, Con 30, LD 24
Lancaster, Carnforth and Millhead. Lab 45, Con 31, Green 19, LD 5
Newcastle under Lyme, Knutton. Lab 54, Con 46
Nuneaton and Bedworth, Barpool. Lab 46, Con 45, Green 9.
Tunbridge Wells, Speldhurst and Bidborough. TWA 51, Con 43, Lab 6.
Wandsworth, Bedford. Lab 53, Con 23, Green 20, LD 4
West Suffolk, Horringer. Con 40, LD 35, Lab 25
Wigan, Bryn. Fairhurst 30, Richardson 29, Lab 29, Con 6, LD 6
Wirral, Oxton. LD 50, Lab 35, Green 10, Con 5

[rightleaning]

Allerdale, Maryport South: Ind 45, Lab 33, C 22
Basildon, Lee Chapel North: Lab 41, C 38, BCR 12, LD 7, Ref UK 2
Halton, Halton Castle: Lab 60, Ind 23, C 10, LD 4, Gn 3
Hambleton. Raskelf and White Horse: C 48, Gn 39, LD 13
Lancaster, Carnforth and Millhead: Lab 40, C 35, Gn 15, LD 10
Newcastle under Lyme, Knutton: C 56, Lab 44,
Nuneaton and Bedworth, Barpool: C 51, Lab 36, Gn 13.
Tunbridge Wells, Speldhurst and Bidborough: TWA 46, C 45, Lab 9.
Wandsworth, Bedford: Lab 47, C 30, Gn 18, LD 5
West Suffolk, Horringer. C 53, LD 35, Lab 12
Wigan, Bryn. Fairhurst 35, Richardson 29, Lab 25, C 8, LD 3
Wirral, Oxton. LD 58, Lab 26, C 10, Gn 6

[rightleaning]

Wyre Forest Franche: Ind 40, C 32, Lab 20, LD 8

[Toylyyev]

ALLERDALE DC, Maryport South:
Conservative 24.5, Labour 44.5, Independent 31.

BASILDON DC, Lee Chapel North:
Conservative 36, Labour 32, Liberal Democrat 3.5, Reform UK 4.5, Basildon Community Residents Party 24.

HALTON UA, Halton Castle:
Conservative 10, Labour 50, Liberal Democrat 5, Green 20, Independent 15.

HAMBLETON DC, Raskelf and White Horse
Conservative 47, Liberal Democrat 38.5, Green 14.5.

LANCASTER DC, Carnforth and Millhead:
Conservative 36.5, Labour 51.5, Liberal Democrat 4, Green 8.

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME DC, Knutton:
Conservative 58, Labour 42.

NUNEATON and BEDWORTH DC, Barpool:
Conservative 50, Labour 32, Green 18.

TUNBRIDGE WELLS DC, Speldhurst and Bidborough:
Conservative 43, Labour 5, Tunbridge Wells Alliance 52.

WANDSWORTH LBC, Bedford:
Conservative 29, Labour 49, Liberal Democrat 4, Green 18.

WEST SUFFOLK DC, Horringer:
Conservative 65, Labour 25.5, Liberal Democrat 9.5.

WIGAN MBC, Bryn:
Conservative 6.5, Labour 32, Liberal Democrat 2, Independent Fairhurst 38.5, Independent Richardson 21.

WIRRAL MBC, Oxton:
Conservative 8, Labour 35, Liberal Democrat 50, Green 7.

[robbienicoll]

11 entries this week. All on time, with greenhert receiving 10 faults for going under in Allerdale, and Tony Otim receiving 0.2 for going under in West Suffolk and Wirral.

Maryport South, Allerdale: 7 Independent win, with agbutler, DHAA, Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Labour gain.
Lee Chapel North, Basildon: 7 Labour hold, with andykernow, Tony Otim and Toylyyev Conservative gain and Richard Cromwell Basildon Community Residents gain.
Halton Castle, Halton: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 21% (peterl) to 45% (agbutler and greenhert).
Raskelf and White Horse, Hambleton: 6 Conservative hold, with agbutler, andykernow, greenhert, peterl and Richard Cromwell Green gain.
Carnforth and Millhead, Lancaster: 8 Labour hold, with andykernow, peterl and Tony Otim Conservative gain.
Knutton, Newcastle-under-Lyme: 7 Labour hold, with Right Leaning, Robert Waller, Tony Otim and Toylyyev Conservative gain.
Bar Pool, Nuneaton and Bedworth: 10 Conservative gain from Labour, with agbutler Labour hold.
Speldhurst and Bidborough, Tunbridge Wells: 9 Tunbridge Wells Alliance gain from Conservative, with andykernow and peterl Conservative hold.
Bedford, Wandsworth: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 12% (DHAA) to 30% (agbutler).
Horringer, West Suffolk: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (agbutler) to 42.7% (Tony Otim).
Bryn, Wigan: 8 Independent (Fairhurst) win, with andrewp and Tony Otim Independent (Richardson) win and Richard Cromwell Conservative gain.
Oxton, Wirral: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (agbutler and Toylyyev) to 36% (Robert Waller).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RzcIgHrErsYr6c8PNGfH_6TIQqJPm2-AWGksQk5gwLU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Many congratulations to Toylyyev for the week's win and for a convincing lead in the month so far, with only one prediction to come (Tuesday 30th)

Tonyotim also did very well in this varied and difficult 'super Thursday' set!

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Nov 26, 2021 12:48:07 GMT Robert Waller said:

Many congratulations to Toylyyev for the week's win and for a convincing lead in the moth so far, with only one prediction to come(Tuesday 30th)

Tonyotim also did very well in this varied and difficult 'super Thursday' set!

He's going to fly away with this month's prize I think. 

[Toylyyev]

Nov 26, 2021 12:48:07 GMT Robert Waller said:

Many congratulations to Toylyyev for the week's win and for a convincing lead in the moth so far, with only one prediction to come(Tuesday 30th)

Tonyotim also did very well in this varied and difficult 'super Thursday' set!

Thanks, but also a fair share of the luck wishes seem to have landed with me. I didn't find the Raskelf SOPN on the website at first and the one i found via the search engine did turn out to have the addresses of the elections agents, only that i did notice that after posting. Made me know that the agent for the LibDem lives close to the ward in Skewby and the other ones in Norton-on-Dervent, and played a part in having a high LibDem and low Green score. Luckily for me candidate location  doesn't seem to have been the only factor in the result.

[peterl]

Wyre Forest Franche: Ind 37, C 31, Lab 20, LD 12