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Post by yellowperil on Nov 18, 2021 7:51:39 GMT
As a dispassionate outside observer, I note the average score for Tewkesbury Lib Dems pre Adam intervention was 15.1, and surprise, surprise, the score after Adam, 30.2! This was before the deadline and a possible entry from AK - who clearly would need to enter 30.2 to retain this neatness. Unless of course any of the early entrants decide to modify their score.
PS -The AK entry came in while I was posting this which rather spoils that neatness, but would be close to the average of the whole range of entries, pre and post Adam.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Nov 18, 2021 8:44:45 GMT
I think we (LDs) will do better in Brockworth than most of these predictions. You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments. While seconding the suggestion, my LibDem score guess didn't move after the post. It actually dated from Tuesday as it was one of my first picks and it would not have moved a lot subsequently in the final review even without the confirmatory information. Correlation and causation anew. EDIT: For completeness sake, earlier predictions did move some of my numbers. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 18, 2021 9:04:51 GMT
CANTERBURY DC; Gorrell - Green Gain from Labour Green – 38% Labour – 36% Conservative – 23% Workers Party of Britain – 3% LIVERPOOL - Anfield. - Labour Hold Labour – 60% Liberal Party – 20% Green – 8% Liberal Democrat - 8% Conservative – 4% No Description – 2% LIVERPOOL MBC; Clubmoor - Labour Hold Labour – 55% Liberal Party – 20% Green – 8% Liberal Democrat – 8% Conservative – 4% TUSC - 3% Independent – 2% LIVERPOOL MBC; Kirkdale - Labour Hold Labour – 56% Green – 20% Liberal Democrats – 11% Conservative - 6% TUSC –4% No Description – 3% MANCHESTER MBC; Chorlton - Labour Hold Labour – 52% Independent - 12% Green – 11% Conservative – 10% Liberal Democrats – 9% Women’s Equality Party – 6% RYEDALE DC; Cropton - Liberal Party Hold Liberal Party – 42% Conservative – 20% Green – 20% Labour – 18% SOUTH RIBBLE DC; Bamber Bridge East - Conservative Gain from Labour Labour – 40% Conservative – 38% Green –22% TEWKESBURY DC; Brockworth East - Conservative gain from BF Conservative - 32% No Description – 31% Liberal Democrat – 22% Labour – 15% Independent - 0% WEST DEVON DC; Bere Ferrers - Liberal Democrat Hold Liberal Democrat - 43% Conservative – 30% Green - 14% Labour – 13% Neat trick by the CON at Bamber Bridge. Will LAB have a points deduction for some infraction of rules like Derby County? |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Nov 18, 2021 9:31:56 GMT
I think we (LDs) will do better in Brockworth than most of these predictions. You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments. To play devil's advocate, why is one opinion of one party's prospects in one seat a bigger deal than all the predictions covering EVERY party in EVERY seat? Surely if this is an issue then it's tiny compared to all the previous entries in the thread? I always have great respect for those who go first because I'm sure later entries are influenced by them. If all entries were by PM I suspect we would see who really knows what they are talking about. I'm sure tips will remain more than welcome in the Yellow room anyway  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 18, 2021 9:43:28 GMT
You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments. To play devil's advocate, why is one opinion of one party's prospects in one seat a bigger deal than all the predictions covering EVERY party in EVERY seat? Surely if this is an issue then it's tiny compared to all the previous entries in the thread? I always have great respect for those who go first because I'm sure later entries are influenced by them. If all entries were by PM I suspect we would see who really knows what they are talking about. I'm sure tips will remain more than welcome in the Yellow room anyway When I used to do the competition regularly, it was always my practice to PM my predictions to middleenglander , typically on the Monday which was usually before any other predictions had been made, so as not to influence, or be influenced by others. I did try to persuade others that this was best practice but I think there were few other takers and this would only become widespread (or in that case, presumably universal) if it were made a rule of the competition. You do see an awful lot of herding on these threads. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 18, 2021 9:44:33 GMT
You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments. To play devil's advocate, why is one opinion of one party's prospects in one seat a bigger deal than all the predictions covering EVERY party in EVERY seat? Surely if this is an issue then it's tiny compared to all the previous entries in the thread? I always have great respect for those who go first because I'm sure later entries are influenced by them. If all entries were by PM I suspect we would see who really knows what they are talking about. I'm sure tips will remain more than welcome in the Yellow room anyway Its not tips that are the problem, just the timing of it this time. Tips often accur in the by-election weekly thread and are welcome. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 18, 2021 9:46:38 GMT
To play devil's advocate, why is one opinion of one party's prospects in one seat a bigger deal than all the predictions covering EVERY party in EVERY seat? Surely if this is an issue then it's tiny compared to all the previous entries in the thread? I always have great respect for those who go first because I'm sure later entries are influenced by them. If all entries were by PM I suspect we would see who really knows what they are talking about. I'm sure tips will remain more than welcome in the Yellow room anyway When I used to do the competition regularly, it was always my practice to PM my predictions to middleenglander , typically on the Monday which was usually before any other predictions had been made, so as not to influence, or be influenced by others. I did try to persuade others that this was best practice but I think there were few other takers and this would only become widespread (or in that case, presumably universal) if it were made a rule of the competition. You do see an awful lot of herding on these threads. I just post early and predict badly. 😁 |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 18, 2021 10:09:03 GMT
You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments. While seconding the suggestion, my LibDem score guess didn't move after the post. It actually dated from Tuesday as it was one of my first picks and it would not have moved a lot subsequently in the final review even without the confirmatory information. Correlation and causation anew. EDIT: For completeness sake, earlier predictions did move some of my numbers. I rather suspected that would be the case. I would also be rather surprised if it influenced Robert Waller whose entry was posted soon after the Adam posting and I guess was prepared earlier. It may be of course that other information about Tewkesbury was seeping through, from sources other than Adam- I usually have found that crucial information doesn't become available until very close to the deadline, and not uncommonly after it. It is one reason why I have rarely been among the earliest posters. It might be noticed as well that Adam was quite cautious- he merely thought the early predictions (around 15%) were probably a bit low- he never said he thought the Lib Dems were going to win in Tewkesbury. |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Nov 18, 2021 10:22:34 GMT
While seconding the suggestion, my LibDem score guess didn't move after the post. It actually dated from Tuesday as it was one of my first picks and it would not have moved a lot subsequently in the final review even without the confirmatory information. Correlation and causation anew. EDIT: For completeness sake, earlier predictions did move some of my numbers. I rather suspected that would be the case. I would also be rather surprised if it influenced Robert Waller whose entry was posted soon after the Adam posting and I guess was prepared earlier. It may be of course that other information about Tewkesbury was seeping through, from sources other than Adam- I usually have found that crucial information doesn't become available until very close to the deadline, and not uncommonly after it_(my underscore). It is one reason why I have rarely been among the earliest posters. It might be noticed as well that Adam was quite cautious- he merely thought the early predictions (around 15%) were probably a bit low- he never said he thought the Lib Dems were going to win in Tewkesbury. This came out on Tuesday: One could also have deduced it from the campa publications of these candidates albeit probably not as pointedly, but the above was what i saw first and it made me go find the output of the candidates. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 18, 2021 10:40:56 GMT
I can confirm I did not edit my prediction after seeing the information re Brockworth, but I did edit it after my initial posting because I lost some faith in my initial faith in the independent in Clubmoor, having initially been more convinced by her twitter feed! My original Wharton prediction was 10%, so we'll see if Toylyyev, who also spotted Liverpudlian twittering, has judged better than me!
By the way, most posts in the discussion above refer to Adam's intervention; ricmk seems to have done the same thing re Manchester.
I agree it would be fairer to post local intelligence and opinion earlier or later - and on the actual local election thread, rather than here, where it really stands out as an intervention in the prediction competition itself.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 18, 2021 11:52:11 GMT
I think we (LDs) will do better in Brockworth than most of these predictions. You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments. Fair point, Tony, and apologies. I admit that I was unsure of etiquette on this point. I did a (tiny) bit in the Longlevens by-election a few weeks back and refrained from commenting on that until the polls had closed. Perhaps for transparency I should say that I have not been active in this campaign, it is based on my "feel" for politics in Gloucestershire right now. I think that, apart from Stroud, Labour is weak and disorganised while the Conservatives are sclerotic and complacent, which gives an opportunity for the LDs and/or Greens. Of course here the defenders are local Indys rather than actual Tories but there's usually a fair degree of overlap. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 18, 2021 19:38:20 GMT
12 entries for this bumper week, with ricmk joining. 2 faults for andykernow for going over in Anfield and 0.1 for Tony Otim for similar in Kirkdale. There were two instances where candidacies were incorrectly posted. The first, which was Tony Otim in Ryedale, had a phantom Lib Dem in place of Labour. The predicted score of 11.8 for the Lib Dem was therefore discarded and as such with no Labour entry Tony's score was 11.8 under 100 so those faults are added on. The second was Richard Cromwell's entry in South Ribble which had two predictions for Labour and no Conservative. I wasn't able to find past precedent for this scenario, so have taken the highest Labour entry, discarded the lower and then assigned 19 faults as there was no Conservative entry. I took the higher value as taking the lower would have made the overall prediction further from 100 and (in my view unfairly) added more faults on. As always, any objections will be readily taken and considered. Gorrell, Canterbury: 7 Labour hold, with andykernow, DHAA, greenhert, peterl and Richard Cromwell Green gain. Anfield, Liverpool: 11 Labour hold, with Richard Cromwell Liberal gain. Clubmoor, Liverpool: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 22% (Richard Cromwell over Liberal) to 46% (andrewp and greenhert over Liberal and Right Leaning over Liberal Democrat). Kirkdale, Liverpool: 11 Labour hold, with Toylyyev No Description gain. Chorlton, Manchester: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 9% (greenhert and Richard Cromwell) to 50% (andrewp). Cropton, Ryedale: 11 Liberal hold, with ricmk Conservative gain. Bamber Bridge East, South Ribble: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (Robert Waller) to 18% (DHAA). Brockworth East, Tewkesbury: 7 No Description gain from Brockworth First, with ricmk, Right Leaning and Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain, and andykernow and Richard Cromwell Conservative gain. Bere Ferrers, West Devon: 6 Liberal Democrat hold, with DHAA, Right Leaning, Robert Waller, Tony Otim and Toylyyev Conservative gain, and Richard Cromwell Green gain. Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tPKbHpu-y8Qxe2Z8LfK2GnBP9lWGakZ8wi_roAsYkJc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 18, 2021 20:14:00 GMT
Also note that there is an additional contest next Thursday - Conservative defence in Horringer, West Suffolk with Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem candidates.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 18, 2021 23:47:10 GMT
I think we (LDs) will do better in Brockworth than most of these predictions. And given the result, that may be why you don't enter the competition  |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 18, 2021 23:48:35 GMT
You may well be right, but could I respectfully suggest that in the interests of a fair competition, comments like this (especially if based on local knowledge) should be left until after the deadline for predictions- there's a clear difference in those predictions made before and after Adam's comments. Or before any predictions. 😉 Not changing mine though, as it would be daft to.
A very wise call, as it turns out... |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 19, 2021 7:14:08 GMT
Or before any predictions. 😉 Not changing mine though, as it would be daft to.
A very wise call, as it turns out... Who'd have thunk a Daft H'a'porth could turn out not to be daft. Well I guess a stopped clock is correct twice a day. 🕒😁 Edit: Well only 20% out. 😅 |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 19, 2021 9:48:31 GMT
I think we (LDs) will do better in Brockworth than most of these predictions. And given the result, that may be why you don't enter the competition My blind guesswork remains at the Forum's disposal. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 19, 2021 11:03:50 GMT
And given the result, that may be why you don't enter the competition My blind guesswork remains at the Forum's disposal. The forum, and especially the prediction competition, is awash with blind guesswork as it is. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 19, 2021 13:33:54 GMT
Although as I write Bere Ferrers has not yet been added in, I shall congratulate peterl for an excellent win for the week and I believe andrewp has taken the lead overall. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 19, 2021 13:51:38 GMT
My initial guess this week was a Conservative win over the Lib Dem’s by 1% in West Devon. As the week went on I changed my mind. I initially had Lab on 17% but then put them down to 11%. And then to 9%. although I never contemplated Labour in 2nd place. Lesson for myself there to stick with initial thoughts.
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