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Post by justin124 on Oct 8, 2021 13:55:48 GMT
Would have been a good by-election for UKIP back in the day But, but, but they never got second place and no one wins by elections from third It would have been a good byelection for them, but they always choked with byelections except when they had a defection The LDs did win Brecon & Radnor frpm third place in July 1985. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 8, 2021 13:56:51 GMT
But, but, but they never got second place and no one wins by elections from third It would have been a good byelection for them, but they always choked with byelections except when they had a defection The LDs did win Brecon & Radnor frpm third place in July 1985. That seat had a strong liberal heritage. This one doesn't. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Oct 8, 2021 13:56:52 GMT
Some grade A trolling on here and the by election hasn't been called yet. 🙄. Safe Conservative hold. It doktorb was here we'd not even have been allowed to discuss it 😂 |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 8, 2021 14:01:19 GMT
The LDs did win Brecon & Radnor frpm third place in July 1985. That seat had a strong liberal heritage. This one doesn't. Not in 1985! The Tories gained the seat in 1979 and before that it had been Labour - held since a byelection in 1939. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 14:05:09 GMT
Some grade A trolling on here and the by election hasn't been called yet. 🙄. Safe Conservative hold. If that happens then Chesham is a fluke and not the start of a trend |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 14:06:59 GMT
That seat had a strong liberal heritage. This one doesn't. Not in 1985! The Tories gained the seat in 1979 and before that it had been Labour - held since a byelection in 1939. Weren't there opinion polls leading up to the Brecon by-election showing Labour ahead of the Liberals? I vaguely remember the Liberals getting very het up about polls in that by-election, but not sure of the details. |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 8, 2021 14:22:43 GMT
Not in 1985! The Tories gained the seat in 1979 and before that it had been Labour - held since a byelection in 1939. Weren't there opinion polls leading up to the Brecon by-election showing Labour ahead of the Liberals? I vaguely remember the Liberals getting very het up about polls in that by-election, but not sure of the details. That is correct. The Tories dropped to third place - as they did at Eastleigh in 1994 and Littleborough & Saddleworth in 1995. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 8, 2021 14:42:02 GMT
Some grade A trolling on here and the by election hasn't been called yet. 🙄. Safe Conservative hold. If that happens then Chesham is a fluke and not the start of a trend Good try, but I don't think you will get that line to work. Not every constituency is the same. At every period when there have been really remarkable by election victories,there have been other unremarkable ones where nothing much changed and they were soon forgotten. Too early yet to say about OB&S, but its more likely to be one of those latter. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 8, 2021 14:42:55 GMT
The last byelection in Bexley was won by Ashley Bramall, a giant of post-war London government but only briefly an MP. He was also Labour group leader on Westminster City Council, and one of his successors Paul Dimoldenberg has recently written his biography.
Ashley always went down to Bexley to campaign for Labour at each successive general election.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2021 15:10:21 GMT
If that happens then Chesham is a fluke and not the start of a trend Good try, but I don't think you will get that line to work. Not every constituency is the same. At every period when there have been really remarkable by election victories,there have been other unremarkable ones where nothing much changed and they were soon forgotten. Too early yet to say about OB&S, but its more likely to be one of those latter. It’s not unreasonable to ascribe significance to a seat held, as much as a seat gained. Either one may indicate significance for the next general election. Of course we won’t actually know which one is truly more significant until after the general election is over: Was Copeland or Richmond Park? Is Hartlepool, Batley or Chesham & Amersham? |
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Post by islington on Oct 8, 2021 15:37:11 GMT
It's a bit more Labour but it seems similar overall - overwhelmingly white, owner occupied and commuter belt. The Lib Dems surely have to make progress here? Bromley and Chislehurst is a bit more middle class, and there are more graduates there. The EU referendum result is a good illustration - B&C was pretty much evenly split, whereas OB&S was comfortably Leave (though less so than Bexley as a whole). This is right.
Bromley and Chislehurst are traditionally very superior places. They have probably slipped somewhat downmarket over the past couple of decades but they still look down their noses at Sidcup.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 8, 2021 15:53:27 GMT
The current constituency's first Labour candidate was Chris Kiff, a Gillingham councillor.
In 1987 Labour's candidate was Howard Stoate, later MP for Dartford (1997-2010), and in 1992 Donna Brierly Cllr for the Thamesmead East ward of Bexley Council (1986-2002).Her name rings a bell but it may just be here candidacy here.
In the 1997 landslide it was Richard Justham, Cllr for the Cray ward (1994-2002) and then Cray Meadows ward (2002-2006) In 2001 the Tory majority was reduced to its lowest level since 1966 (if compared with the old Bexley seat) by Lambeth councillor and sometime council leader Jim Dickson. |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 8, 2021 16:01:50 GMT
The last byelection in Bexley was won by Ashley Bramall, a giant of post-war London government but only briefly an MP. He was also Labour group leader on Westminster City Council, and one of his successors Paul Dimoldenberg has recently written his biography. Ashley always went down to Bexley to campaign for Labour at each successive general election. That was a very different seat though - being the Bexley constituency very narrowly won by Ted Heath in 1950. Had the same boundaries existed, that seat would have reverted to Labour in 1997 - and probably remained so in 2001. |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 8, 2021 16:03:39 GMT
Bromley and Chislehurst is a bit more middle class, and there are more graduates there. The EU referendum result is a good illustration - B&C was pretty much evenly split, whereas OB&S was comfortably Leave (though less so than Bexley as a whole). This is right. Bromley and Chislehurst are traditionally very superior places. They have probably slipped somewhat downmarket over the past couple of decades but they still look down their noses at Sidcup.
Yet Chislehurst did go Labour in 1966! |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 8, 2021 16:07:53 GMT
Some grade A trolling on here and the by election hasn't been called yet. 🙄. Safe Conservative hold. If that happens then Chesham is a fluke and not the start of a trend Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain and had high levels of graduates, wealthy voters and other helpful demographics to the Lib Dems. Bexley and Old Sidcup voted 62% Leave and is in no way demographically similar to Chesham and Amersham. Behave yourself. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 8, 2021 16:10:19 GMT
This is right. Bromley and Chislehurst are traditionally very superior places. They have probably slipped somewhat downmarket over the past couple of decades but they still look down their noses at Sidcup.
Yet Chislehurst did go Labour in 1966! Though that version of Chislehurst actually included Sidcup! |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 16:10:21 GMT
If that happens then Chesham is a fluke and not the start of a trend Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain and had high levels of graduates, wealthy voters and other helpful demographics to the Lib Dems. Bexley and Old Sidcup voted 62% Leave and is in no way demographically similar to Chesham and Amersham. Behave yourself. I'm not saying that it should be a 2:1 victory - but the Liberals should be challenging here particularly if the Tories don't quickly move the writ. If the Liberals can't win in middle class Leave voting seats then the blue wall is a rather short wall. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 8, 2021 16:17:12 GMT
Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain and had high levels of graduates, wealthy voters and other helpful demographics to the Lib Dems. Bexley and Old Sidcup voted 62% Leave and is in no way demographically similar to Chesham and Amersham. Behave yourself. I'm not saying that it should be a 2:1 victory - but the Liberals should be challenging here particularly if the Tories don't quickly move the writ. If the Liberals can't win in middle class Leave voting seats then the blue wall is a rather short wall. Here is a helpful guide as to what is and is not in the Blue (& Red) Wall. Old Bexley and Sidcup is definitely NOT in the Blue Wall.  |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 8, 2021 16:17:53 GMT
I am surprised that the seat voted so strongly for Brexit - given that this had been Ted Heath's seat for so long. I would have expected his influence to have pushed it the other way.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 8, 2021 16:18:36 GMT
This is right. Bromley and Chislehurst are traditionally very superior places. They have probably slipped somewhat downmarket over the past couple of decades but they still look down their noses at Sidcup.
Yet Chislehurst did go Labour in 1966! The Labour MP Alastair Macdonald served one term before losing to his predecessor Pat Hornsby-Smith, fought both 1974 elections and came back to fight it again in 1983. He had been a councillor on the old Urban District Council. iirc Robert Waller referred to his triumph in the Almanac thus: "when dinosaurs roamed the earth and there was a Labour MP in Chislehurst". |
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