iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Oct 8, 2021 12:39:56 GMT
It is sad news - younger than me. This is where I grew up and my parents still live. There are some areas of former Lib / Lib Dem strength. Blackfen was the main Liberal ward in my time there, and East Wickham and wards based on Welling were the main area of Lib Dem strength, but that was when those wards were in the neighbouring Bexleyheath constituency. It's a long time since the Lib Dems won any of those though...
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Post by matureleft on Oct 8, 2021 12:40:08 GMT
By elections are an opportunity for voters to have a moan about something local or national without altering the government. A strong local candidate with some credibility and some freedom to tap these things might have a chance. But is there such a person available to a serious party? I doubt it.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,762
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 12:40:29 GMT
There is a respectable Labour vote in the north of the seat, around Falconwood, Welling, and East Wickham. I can't see anything but a comfortable Conservative hold, and I can't see the Liberal Democrats making much progress here. Lib Dems at byelections can be remarkably flexible |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 8, 2021 12:52:57 GMT
Surely this is the yardstick the performance of the various parties need to be judged: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Bromley_and_Chislehurst_by-electionLib Dems starting in third place almost won and Labour collapsed. Obviously the base LD vote is much smaller now but if their 'blue wall' strategy is anything but spin second place and a 20%+ share has to be their ambition? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 8, 2021 12:53:37 GMT
Sad news. On the election it's worth noting that last time was the first time since 1992 there had only been one right-of-centre candidate (unless you count the CPA). Are you counting the Natural Law party as 'right-of-centre' or do you know something most of don't about the Independent candidate in 1992? |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Oct 8, 2021 12:55:17 GMT
Surely this is the yardstick the performance of the various parties need to be judged: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Bromley_and_Chislehurst_by-electionLib Dems starting in third place almost won and Labour collapsed. Obviously the base LD vote is much smaller now but if their 'blue wall' strategy is anything but spin second place and a 20%+ share has to be their ambition? Bromley and Chislehurst demograchic wise is much more amenable to the LDs. OB&S is quite different though. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,468 
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Post by peterl on Oct 8, 2021 12:57:27 GMT
Surely this is the yardstick the performance of the various parties need to be judged: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Bromley_and_Chislehurst_by-electionLib Dems starting in third place almost won and Labour collapsed. Obviously the base LD vote is much smaller now but if their 'blue wall' strategy is anything but spin second place and a 20%+ share has to be their ambition? Well Bromley had a high profile UKIP campaign and for the time an impressive performance. I can't see Reform being able to mount a campaign on that scale or with such a well known candidate. And clearly UKIP taking votes off the Tories was what allowed the Lib Dems to do better than they otherwise would of, and still not well enough to win. I see this as a comfortable Tory hold, albeit probably a bit of a swing away from them due to midterm dissatisfaction and a free protest vote opportunity. I would imagine Tories on about 45% and a battle between the Lib Dems and Labour for second place, no serious contenders from the "others" here. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2021 13:05:55 GMT
Are you counting the Natural Law party as 'right-of-centre' or do you know something most of don't about the Independent candidate in 1992? I wasn't counting any of the candidates as right-of-centre in 1992 apart from the Tories. Though of course some might not consider the Tory candidate then (and 1997) as "right of centre" either  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 8, 2021 13:10:29 GMT
Are you counting the Natural Law party as 'right-of-centre' or do you know something most of don't about the Independent candidate in 1992? I wasn't counting any of the candidates as right-of-centre in 1992 apart from the Tories. 1997: Referendum, UKIP, BNP 2001: UKIP 2005: UKIP, BNP 2010: BNP, UKIP, Eng Dem 2015: UKIP, BNP 2017: UKIP, BNP 1992 and 2019 didn't have any candidates from those types of parties. The Tory candidate in 1992 was left of centre |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 8, 2021 13:10:32 GMT
Surely this is the yardstick the performance of the various parties need to be judged: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Bromley_and_Chislehurst_by-electionLib Dems starting in third place almost won and Labour collapsed. Obviously the base LD vote is much smaller now but if their 'blue wall' strategy is anything but spin second place and a 20%+ share has to be their ambition? Bromley and Chislehurst demograchic wise is much more amenable to the LDs. OB&S is quite different though. It's a bit more Labour but it seems similar overall - overwhelmingly white, owner occupied and commuter belt. The Lib Dems surely have to make progress here? |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Oct 8, 2021 13:10:56 GMT
I wasn't counting any of the candidates as right-of-centre in 1992 apart from the Tories. Though of course some might not consider the Tory candidate then (and 1997) as "right of centre" either Building on the Dennis Howell comments, Horam is one of only a few people to have been a minister for two parties. Reg Prentice is probably the only other one from that era. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2021 13:12:10 GMT
Horam was a Tory MP for Orpington, no?
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Oct 8, 2021 13:14:09 GMT
Horam was a Tory MP for Orpington, no? He was, it occurred to me as I looked at a map due to the geographical closeness. |
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zoe
Conservative
Posts: 637
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Post by zoe on Oct 8, 2021 13:16:29 GMT
Horam was a Tory MP for Orpington, no? Yes and Labour MP for Gateshead West. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2021 13:18:20 GMT
Horam was a Tory MP for Orpington, no? Yes and Labour MP for Gateshead West. To be strictly accurate, Labour then SDP - IIRC he went over to the Tories before the 1987 GE and was re-elected to parliament in their colours five years later. A look at his Wikipedia entry reveals not just that he is still with us and indeed active as a peer, but that he recently "came out" as a supporter of Modern Monetary Theory - not what I was really expecting, especially given his political trajectory earlier in life. |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 8, 2021 13:20:39 GMT
Some might consider a belief in yogic-flying to be akin to attaching credence to some of Johnson's rhetoric...
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Post by rcronald on Oct 8, 2021 13:22:45 GMT
I’m not that familiar with the area, but is it fair to compare the seat to Dartford or Hornchurch & Upminster? Because if so, I highly doubt the Tories are going to lose the seat.
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 8, 2021 13:23:52 GMT
Bromley and Chislehurst demograchic wise is much more amenable to the LDs. OB&S is quite different though. It's a bit more Labour but it seems similar overall - overwhelmingly white, owner occupied and commuter belt. The Lib Dems surely have to make progress here? Bromley and Chislehurst is a bit more middle class, and there are more graduates there. The EU referendum result is a good illustration - B&C was pretty much evenly split, whereas OB&S was comfortably Leave (though less so than Bexley as a whole). |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Oct 8, 2021 13:31:50 GMT
Some grade A trolling on here and the by election hasn't been called yet. 🙄.
Safe Conservative hold.
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Post by justin124 on Oct 8, 2021 13:52:34 GMT
Astonishing spin. Disappointed not to get a 28+(?) point swing and take a seat from third place? No, it's a compliment. This is an incredibly skittish time and the Lib Dems have a by-election machine second to none. If I wanted to spin this I'd be talking about Labour's secure second place and saying this was a test for Keir as not only can't Labour win this (unlike the Liberals) but it would big up the lesser threat. In fact I'd be expecting exactly this line from Tory Central office if they have their wits about them more than they did in Amersham. Labour was not too far off unseating Ted Heath here in 1997. |
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