neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Oct 8, 2021 11:36:50 GMT
The Blue Wall and Johnsonism. Let's brace ourselves for a barrage of lazy journalism. |
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Post by ibfc on Oct 8, 2021 11:38:05 GMT
The Tory vote here in 2019 was 7% down on the Tory + UKIP vote in 2015. The corresponding figure in Chesham was around 17%. I have found this to be a handy way of guesstimating Tory performance post 2019 in England.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2021 11:40:07 GMT
I'd like to see a full Labour campaign here, not because I think we can win but because I think we can do some damage of we secure a healthy swing in our favour
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Post by elinorhelyn on Oct 8, 2021 11:41:55 GMT
The Blue Wall and Johnsonism. Let's brace ourselves for a barrage of lazy journalism. This is just about the worst seat in London and probably the entire South to test strengh of the Blue Wall. |
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Post by Strontium Dog on Oct 8, 2021 11:44:09 GMT
It's not as promising as Chesham, but the Liberals must be disappointed if they lose this by-election. Thanks for the belly laugh. Much needed. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 11:45:32 GMT
Very sad news. 53 is no age at all. It's not as promising as Chesham, but the Liberals must be disappointed if they lose this by-election. I'm not sure if this is serious or not. The Lib Dems have no chance of gaining this. They've never been the main challenger and they even lost their deposits in 2015 and 2017. My early take is it will be comfortable Tory hold. A comfortable Tory hold in this parliament would be a most remarkable thing - we haven't seen that since Sleaford and North Hykeham in 2016, and the only other comfortable hold was Newark - and that was due to UKIP's rickety machine rather than the Conservative's record in government. If the Lib Dems don't break out then Labour in it's current anaemic state would fail to win this seat (they wouldn't have done under Blair or perhaps post 87 Kinnock), But a Lib Dem break out has to be on the cards here. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 11:47:11 GMT
I'd like to see a full Labour campaign here, not because I think we can win but because I think we can do some damage of we secure a healthy swing in our favour You could, and more importantly a strong Labour campaign would secure this for the Conservatives. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 11:49:00 GMT
The Tory vote here in 2019 was 7% down on the Tory + UKIP vote in 2015. The corresponding figure in Chesham was around 17%. I have found this to be a handy way of guesstimating Tory performance post 2019 in England. So what do you think this portends - a squeaker of a result one way or the other in comparison to the Chesham landslide or a comfortable Tory hold? |
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Post by evergreenadam on Oct 8, 2021 11:49:26 GMT
RIP James Brokenshire. I think it will be a comfortable Tory hold. Outer London leave voting seat. I would love to see the Mayoral and GLA elections to compare. To the Lib Dem, this is no Chesham and Amersham, democrgrahics are not in your favour and your not in second place by a mile. Absolutely, voters in this seat probably like this government! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2021 11:53:47 GMT
I'd like to see a full Labour campaign here, not because I think we can win but because I think we can do some damage of we secure a healthy swing in our favour You could, and more importantly a strong Labour campaign would secure this for the Conservatives. Well that's unlikely because we're going to finish second anyway even if we don't campaign at all. Labour have been second since 1992 and in 2019 we beat the LibDems 23.5-8.3. This is not a LibDem friendly seat |
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Post by swindonlad on Oct 8, 2021 12:01:00 GMT
You could, and more importantly a strong Labour campaign would secure this for the Conservatives. Well that's unlikely because we're going to finish second anyway even if we don't campaign at all. Labour have been second since 1992 and in 2019 we beat the LibDems 23.5-8.3. This is not a LibDem friendly seat I suspect someone is trying to split the opposition vote by playing up the 3rd placed party |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 12:01:34 GMT
You could, and more importantly a strong Labour campaign would secure this for the Conservatives. Well that's unlikely because we're going to finish second anyway even if we don't campaign at all. Labour have been second since 1992 and in 2019 we beat the LibDems 23.5-8.3. This is not a LibDem friendly seat If Labour don't campaign at all you will lose second place. These positions are not awarded as a matter of right, particularly in by-elections. Scotland and the red wall doesn't seem to have any lessons for Labour. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 12:04:20 GMT
Well that's unlikely because we're going to finish second anyway even if we don't campaign at all. Labour have been second since 1992 and in 2019 we beat the LibDems 23.5-8.3. This is not a LibDem friendly seat I suspect someone is trying to split the opposition vote by playing up the 3rd placed party Labour can't win in their current state. This isn't the 1990s. But by elections are for kicking governments, particularly Conservative governments - and the Liberals have the best by election machine in the business. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 8, 2021 12:06:57 GMT
That's awful news - 53 is no age at all and terribly sad for his family.
Re the by-election, I can't see it being anything other than a Conservative hold. The only wildcard would be if there was a strong right wing challenge (they wouldn't necessarily win but could split the vote) - but I can't see where that would come from.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 8, 2021 12:07:37 GMT
I suspect someone is trying to split the opposition vote by playing up the 3rd placed party Labour can't win in their current state. This isn't the 1990s. But by elections are for kicking governments, particularly Conservative governments - and the Liberals have the best by election machine in the business. Would have been a good by-election for UKIP back in the day |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2021 12:10:38 GMT
Labour can't win in their current state. This isn't the 1990s. But by elections are for kicking governments, particularly Conservative governments - and the Liberals have the best by election machine in the business. Would have been a good by-election for UKIP back in the day But, but, but they never got second place and no one wins by elections from third It would have been a good byelection for them, but they always choked with byelections except when they had a defection |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Oct 8, 2021 12:16:44 GMT
Would have been a good by-election for UKIP back in the day But, but, but they never got second place and no one wins by elections from third It would have been a good byelection for them, but they always choked with byelections except when they had a defection I think the Reform Party can build a good campaign off disgruntled Torys upset with Johnsons Tax rises. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 8, 2021 12:22:59 GMT
There is a respectable Labour vote in the north of the seat, around Falconwood, Welling, and East Wickham. I can't see anything but a comfortable Conservative hold, and I can't see the Liberal Democrats making much progress here.
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 8, 2021 12:23:16 GMT
But, but, but they never got second place and no one wins by elections from third It would have been a good byelection for them, but they always choked with byelections except when they had a defection I think the Reform Party can build a good campaign off disgruntled Torys upset with Johnsons Tax rises. I could see Insulate Britain being an issue too. This constituency has far more people who drive to work than the London average and, and a lot of people work in construction, transport, and similar industries where the road blockages will be causing chaos. If Reform can portray the government as being weak on Insulate Britain then they might be able to get votes out of that. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Oct 8, 2021 12:24:45 GMT
Very sad news
Example of a rare London seat that voted for Brexit so can’t imagine the Tories having any issues
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