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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2021 16:28:09 GMT
I'm not saying that it should be a 2:1 victory - but the Liberals should be challenging here particularly if the Tories don't quickly move the writ. If the Liberals can't win in middle class Leave voting seats then the blue wall is a rather short wall. Here is a helpful guide as to what is and is not in the Blue (& Red) Wall. Old Bexley and Sidcup is definitely NOT in the Blue Wall.  That’s a questionable map. Clwyd West is not Red Wall. Kingston & Surbiton is not Blue Wall. The traditionally Labour ex-mining seats in County Durham surely are (or were) Red Wall. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 8, 2021 16:30:57 GMT
I'm not saying that it should be a 2:1 victory - but the Liberals should be challenging here particularly if the Tories don't quickly move the writ. If the Liberals can't win in middle class Leave voting seats then the blue wall is a rather short wall. Here is a helpful guide as to what is and is not in the Blue (& Red) Wall. Old Bexley and Sidcup is definitely NOT in the Blue Wall. I don't know what criteria you're using, but I'd argue that the likes of Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Congleton, Macclesfield, and Southport (amongst other) are not of the so-called "Red Wall" either. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 8, 2021 16:31:35 GMT
Macclesfield and Congleton are interesting inclusions in that map. Who the hell created that? The description of 'Blue Wall' as applied to OB&S seems simply to mean a Conservative held seat which is bad enough but not we have a definition of 'Red wall' including seats which Labour have never won
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 8, 2021 16:37:54 GMT
Macclesfield and Congleton are interesting inclusions in that map. Who the hell created that? The description of 'Blue Wall' as applied to OB&S seems simply to mean a Conservative held seat which is bad enough but not we have a definition of 'Red wall' including seats which Labour have never won Oh there are some definitely terrible calls in the map I've linked, but I more meant it to show that OB&S is definitely not Blue Wall. Southport being part of the "Red Wall" is my personal favourite, but still. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 8, 2021 16:38:15 GMT
Macclesfield and Congleton are interesting inclusions in that map. Who the hell created that? The description of 'Blue Wall' as applied to OB&S seems simply to mean a Conservative held seat which is bad enough but not we have a definition of 'Red wall' including seats which Labour have never won "The Red and Blue Walls" said the White Queen "Mean exactly what I want them to mean". |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 8, 2021 16:46:26 GMT
Macclesfield and Congleton are interesting inclusions in that map. Who the hell created that? The description of 'Blue Wall' as applied to OB&S seems simply to mean a Conservative held seat which is bad enough but not we have a definition of 'Red wall' including seats which Labour have never won Oh there are some definitely terrible calls in the map I've linked, but I more meant it to show that OB&S is definitely not Blue Wall. Southport being part of the "Red Wall" is my personal favourite, but still. Well, Southport is now closer to being a Labour seat than at any time since 1945 and the sub regional movement will very possibly see it as a Labour seat ere long.
Even then it would not be another brick in the wall... |
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 8, 2021 18:09:28 GMT
This is likely to be a very low-key by-election in which a Johnson loyalist is elected on a turnout of about 38%. It will feature about fourth on the BBC News and the Today programme won't bother to interview anyone about its implications because there won't be any.
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jamesg
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Post by jamesg on Oct 8, 2021 18:17:58 GMT
I was wanted to add a reminder that should this thread be given a poll, the by-elections for the Commons this year have defied Vote2012 polls.
Hartlepool, Batley & Spen and C&A all went the other way to what was confidently predicted.
I grew up in Bexleyheath, in the neighbouring constituency. Bexley Village and Chislehurst are very Conservative; Sidcup less so. Personally, it'd tag this as a solid, quiet Conservative hold because I cannot see the LD by-election machine making a real impact.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2021 18:48:37 GMT
I'm not saying that it should be a 2:1 victory - but the Liberals should be challenging here particularly if the Tories don't quickly move the writ. If the Liberals can't win in middle class Leave voting seats then the blue wall is a rather short wall. Here is a helpful guide as to what is and is not in the Blue (& Red) Wall. Old Bexley and Sidcup is definitely NOT in the Blue Wall. Macclesfield and Congleton. Red wall. And Stroud...."demographically similar"? What absolute fucking idiot drew that up? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2021 18:49:53 GMT
Macclesfield and Congleton are interesting inclusions in that map. Who the hell created that? The description of 'Blue Wall' as applied to OB&S seems simply to mean a Conservative held seat which is bad enough but not we have a definition of 'Red wall' including seats which Labour have never won Oh there are some definitely terrible calls in the map I've linked, but I more meant it to show that OB&S is definitely not Blue Wall. Southport being part of the "Red Wall" is my personal favourite, but still. But you haven't done that because the map is worthless and doesn't demonstrate anything (except possibly the ignorance of whoever made it) |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 8, 2021 18:57:25 GMT
When I first heard this news, I was shocked, to say the least, since I previously believed that James Brokenshire would recover by the end of this year, and also he was only 53.
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Post by where2travel on Oct 8, 2021 19:18:13 GMT
I'm baffled how Beckenham and Bromley & Chislehurst are "Demographically similar to, but not the red wall" in that bizarre chart.
That aside, Bromley & Chislehurst is quite different demographically to OB&S for some of the reasons already mentioned. OB&S is probably a bit of a mix of B&C but with quite a bit of Orpington thrown in (they all border each other so it's probably not a big surprise). Despite comparison with Orpington, days of the Lib Dems being strong there are quite some time ago now, and I can't see OB&S being another Orpington when it comes to by-elections.
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 8, 2021 19:35:22 GMT
If that happens then Chesham is a fluke and not the start of a trend Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain and had high levels of graduates, wealthy voters and other helpful demographics to the Lib Dems. Bexley and Old Sidcup voted 62% Leave and is in no way demographically similar to Chesham and Amersham. Behave yourself. 63% Leave according to Hanretty, which is exactly the same as the Borough of Bexley as a whole. Might be an overestimate though since OB&S appears to be the wealthy half of the borough |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 8, 2021 19:38:21 GMT
Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain and had high levels of graduates, wealthy voters and other helpful demographics to the Lib Dems. Bexley and Old Sidcup voted 62% Leave and is in no way demographically similar to Chesham and Amersham. Behave yourself. 63% Leave according to Hanretty, which is exactly the same as the Borough of Bexley as a whole. Might be an overestimate though since OB&S appears to be the wealthy half of the borough It would appear that Ted Heath's influence on the area is long gone! |
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Post by mrsir on Oct 8, 2021 19:54:01 GMT
I think it was a long time since our last Conservative MP death and now we’ve had two this year.
RIP
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 8, 2021 19:56:24 GMT
I am surprised that the seat voted so strongly for Brexit - given that this had been Ted Heath's seat for so long. I would have expected his influence to have pushed it the other way. Given how much of a people person the Great Sulker of State was, I would expect the opposite. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 8, 2021 19:56:43 GMT
Oh there are some definitely terrible calls in the map I've linked, but I more meant it to show that OB&S is definitely not Blue Wall. Southport being part of the "Red Wall" is my personal favourite, but still. But you haven't done that because the map is worthless and doesn't demonstrate anything (except possibly the ignorance of whoever made it) Accepted that I didn't properly scruntise the map, I liked it at first glace because it actually kept both Red and Blue as "Walls", which is my biggest annoyance with the use of "Red Wall" in the media, it's now a meaningless term describing a seat north of Watford that has voted for Labour in the last 30 years. The Yougov MRP from earlier this week including a Birmingham seat in there was maddening. But my main point still stands. OB&S is definitively, 100%, without a shadow of doubt, NOT a "Blue Wall" seat. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 8, 2021 20:11:23 GMT
63% Leave according to Hanretty, which is exactly the same as the Borough of Bexley as a whole. Might be an overestimate though since OB&S appears to be the wealthy half of the borough It would appear that Ted Heath's influence on the area is long gone! Well he was only Prime Minister. Now, if he'd had his own You Tube channel... |
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Post by where2travel on Oct 8, 2021 20:25:47 GMT
Very sad news Example of a rare London seat that voted for Brexit so can’t imagine the Tories having any issues. "Rare" being something like 20-25% of London seats? Or rare in the lazy world of journalism where they'd have you believe there isn't a single Leaver or Tory voter in London. I agree I can't see the Tories having too many issues, although it'd probably help them for a quick by-election in the run up to winter rather than it being drawn out too much. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 8, 2021 20:26:29 GMT
I think it was a long time since our last Conservative MP death and now we’ve had two this year. RIP Eric Forth in 2006 before the two this year. |
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