stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Oct 8, 2021 21:07:53 GMT
Very sad news Example of a rare London seat that voted for Brexit so can’t imagine the Tories having any issues. "Rare" being something like 20-25% of London seats? Or rare in the lazy world of journalism where they'd have you believe there isn't a single Leaver or Tory voter in London. I agree I can't see the Tories having too many issues, although it'd probably help them for a quick by-election in the run up to winter rather than it being drawn out too much. Definition of rare can be subjective I guess, certainly it’s in a minority of London constituencies. But you’re correct that like Scotland it can be forgotten there was still a notable leave vote in London |
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Post by redtony on Oct 8, 2021 21:26:35 GMT
This may be the safest Tory seat in London It May also be the richest
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Post by greenhert on Oct 8, 2021 21:57:31 GMT
This may be the safest Tory seat in London It May also be the richest The safest Conservative seat in Greater London is Orpington, and Hornchurch & Upminster is slightly safer than Old Bexley & Sidcup, which is nevertheless the third safest Conservative seat in Greater London. The wealthiest Conservative seat in London is naturally the Cities of London & Westminster. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2021 22:15:59 GMT
But you haven't done that because the map is worthless and doesn't demonstrate anything (except possibly the ignorance of whoever made it) Accepted that I didn't properly scruntise the map, I liked it at first glace because it actually kept both Red and Blue as "Walls", which is my biggest annoyance with the use of "Red Wall" in the media, it's now a meaningless term describing a seat north of Watford that has voted for Labour in the last 30 years. The Yougov MRP from earlier this week including a Birmingham seat in there was maddening. But my main point still stands. OB&S is definitively, 100%, without a shadow of doubt, NOT a "Blue Wall" seat. Who knows? Who cares? All blue wall/red wall discourse is meaningless crap and whilst I can forgive journalists for it people on this forum should know better. "Not blue wall" is in pretty much the same category as "won't elect a Green" |
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Post by pepperminttea on Oct 8, 2021 23:11:58 GMT
Here is a helpful guide as to what is and is not in the Blue (& Red) Wall. Old Bexley and Sidcup is definitely NOT in the Blue Wall.  I don't know what criteria you're using, but I'd argue that the likes of Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Congleton, Macclesfield, and Southport (amongst other) are not of the so-called "Red Wall" either. Yes and Hexham is more demographically 'blue wall' than Berwick. The blue wall (as terrible as that term is) are well-off Tory seats that voted Remain or at least were very close to doing so, i.e. definitely not Bridgwater, Broxbourne, the New Forest seats, Christchurch, Forest of Dean, Torbay, Spelthorne or any of the other Brexitty seats that are highlighted in blue in the above map. Similarly the centres of the big Northern cities are not the red wall (also awful term) as they contain completely different demographics to the Rother Valleys or Bassetlaws. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 9, 2021 1:31:04 GMT
I'm not saying that it should be a 2:1 victory - but the Liberals should be challenging here particularly if the Tories don't quickly move the writ. If the Liberals can't win in middle class Leave voting seats then the blue wall is a rather short wall. Here is a helpful guide as to what is and is not in the Blue (& Red) Wall. Old Bexley and Sidcup is definitely NOT in the Blue Wall. Someone better tell Reading East MP Matt Rodda he's a Tory according to this map.  |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 9, 2021 1:36:48 GMT
As regards to Mr Brokenshire's death, indeed he is a great loss to UK politics as a rational, civil and amiable politician.
My prediction is safe Tory hold due to the white lower middle class demographics of the seat - Johnson's brand of Conservatism will have a field day here.
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spqr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,905
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Post by spqr on Oct 9, 2021 3:07:01 GMT
Yes and Labour MP for Gateshead West. To be strictly accurate, Labour then SDP - IIRC he went over to the Tories before the 1987 GE and was re-elected to parliament in their colours five years later. A look at his Wikipedia entry reveals not just that he is still with us and indeed active as a peer, but that he recently "came out" as a supporter of Modern Monetary Theory - not what I was really expecting, especially given his political trajectory earlier in life. A pretty similar trajectory in many ways to Lord (Robert) Skidelsky - to put it glibly, essentially Thatcherite by the late 1970s, leading to a jump from Labour to Tory via the SDP, but with a regard for deficit-spending Keynesianism that re-emerged following the financial crisis. |
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Post by ibfc on Oct 9, 2021 3:34:04 GMT
The Tory vote here in 2019 was 7% down on the Tory + UKIP vote in 2015. The corresponding figure in Chesham was around 17%. I have found this to be a handy way of guesstimating Tory performance post 2019 in England. So what do you think this portends - a squeaker of a result one way or the other in comparison to the Chesham landslide or a comfortable Tory hold? Think a comfortable Tory hold since Labour are second. Would’ve been tight if the LDs were. |
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Post by seanryanj on Oct 9, 2021 4:33:04 GMT
I am an election geek but this speculation about the by election within 24 hrs? Give it a week please. And I know in people's mind people even in any job they are saying etc...in politics forum like this maybe leave the written speculation 7 days
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 9, 2021 5:38:07 GMT
There's a fundraising page for those who wish to contribute.
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 9, 2021 8:03:12 GMT
It would appear that Ted Heath's influence on the area is long gone! Well he was only Prime Minister. Now, if he'd had his own You Tube channel... You have to be down with the kids on Tik-Tok and Twitch now. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 9, 2021 8:51:27 GMT
Here is a helpful guide as to what is and is not in the Blue (& Red) Wall. Old Bexley and Sidcup is definitely NOT in the Blue Wall. Someone better tell Reading East MP Matt Rodda he's a Tory according to this map. Some of the Blue Wall has already fallen, Oxford West and Abington is another example. |
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Post by MeirionGwril on Oct 9, 2021 9:14:36 GMT
I am an election geek but this speculation about the by election within 24 hrs? Give it a week please. And I know in people's mind people even in any job they are saying etc...in politics forum like this maybe leave the written speculation 7 days Quatsch! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 9, 2021 9:28:42 GMT
I am an election geek but this speculation about the by election within 24 hrs? Give it a week please. And I know in people's mind people even in any job they are saying etc...in politics forum like this maybe leave the written speculation 7 days This thread has been set up specifically to discuss the by-election that is going to happen in this constituency. If speculation about the by election was occurring on the 'rest in peace' thread you might have a point. This is a point that has been made by others before and there are differing views about it. Of course you are perfectly at liberty to avoid this thread for the next week (or for however long you feel by-election discussion is inappropriate) but it is a bit odd to actively enter a thread dedicated to the forthcoming by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup and then to object when you find that people are discussing said by-election |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 9, 2021 9:29:35 GMT
Well he was only Prime Minister. Now, if he'd had his own You Tube channel... You have to be down with the kids on Tik-Tok and Twitch now. Well you know, one thing at a time. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 9, 2021 9:41:48 GMT
I am surprised that the seat voted so strongly for Brexit - given that this had been Ted Heath's seat for so long. I would have expected his influence to have pushed it the other way. Surely most voters make up their own minds in most subjects? They are not very influenced by what their MP says or does unless strongly in agreement or strongly opposed, and then they either warm to or reject the MP. At times a very charismatic and long serving MP, such as a Ken Clarke or an Austin Mitchell may have an effect in cementing an attachment to them as a person and thus to that party whilst they are there as the MP, but seldom if ever to a given policy in itself.. Heath was never that sort of man and latterly very much not that sort of man. To think that in that particular demographic Heath would convert the voters to Remainer stance is utterly absurd. |
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Post by seanryanj on Oct 9, 2021 10:02:09 GMT
I am an election geek but this speculation about the by election within 24 hrs? Give it a week please. And I know in people's mind people even in any job they are saying etc...in politics forum like this maybe leave the written speculation 7 days This thread has been set up specifically to discuss the by-election that is going to happen in this constituency. If speculation about the by election was occurring on the 'rest in peace' thread you might have a point. This is a point that has been made by others before and there are differing views about it. Of course you are perfectly at liberty to avoid this thread for the next week (or for however long you feel by-election discussion is inappropriate) but it is a bit odd to actively enter a thread dedicated to the forthcoming by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup and then to object when you find that people are discussing said by-election Well I paid my respects earlier in the thread..I thought there might be a pause b4 speculation on the by election of at least 24 hrs politics is one thing but someone dying might demand a bit of respect! I must be soft!! |
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Post by pepperminttea on Oct 9, 2021 10:08:38 GMT
Here is a helpful guide as to what is and is not in the Blue (& Red) Wall. Old Bexley and Sidcup is definitely NOT in the Blue Wall. Someone better tell Reading East MP Matt Rodda he's a Tory according to this map. Or Mike Kane. Who would have known that Wythenshawe was a northern extension of the blue wall... Maybe the blue wall was actually breached all the way back in 1964 after all, when Labour shockingly won over the jet setting, prosecco swilling, upper-middle classes classes of Wythenshawe country estate by campaigning against Tory racism and xenophobia . |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 9, 2021 10:13:41 GMT
I mean, what makes that map so awesomely bad is that clearly a bit of effort has gone into doing it....
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