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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 9, 2021 10:23:04 GMT
Tried doing a Google search for the image and can't find it anywhere else. Does anyone actually know the provenance of this map? It is actually the worst map I have ever seen in my fucking life
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 9, 2021 10:24:41 GMT
I mean its so bad its good. I keep finding new gems, such as that Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner is 'demographically similar to the Red Wall'
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 9, 2021 10:26:31 GMT
If someone on this forum was found to be responsible they should get a lifetime ban. I don't think even Harry is capable of something this bad
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 9, 2021 10:36:25 GMT
This is James Kanagasooriam's first map of the 'Red Wall':-
All the seats where we underpolled given the demographics of a seat.
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Post by justin124 on Oct 9, 2021 10:44:38 GMT
I am surprised that the seat voted so strongly for Brexit - given that this had been Ted Heath's seat for so long. I would have expected his influence to have pushed it the other way. Surely most voters make up their own minds in most subjects? They are not very influenced by what their MP says or does unless strongly in agreement or strongly opposed, and then they either warm to or reject the MP. At times a very charismatic and long serving MP, such as a Ken Clarke or an Austin Mitchell may have an effect in cementing an attachment to them as a person and thus to that party whilst they are there as the MP, but seldom if ever to a given policy in itself.. Heath was never that sort of man and latterly very much not that sort of man. To think that in that particular demographic Heath would convert the voters to Remainer stance is utterly absurd. I don't disagree with much of that at all , but given that Heath was a former PM and had been party leader for nearly 10 years it is not particularly unreasonable to think that his views would have left some mark on former constituents in respect of an issue which had been central to his political career.Had he still been alive in 2016, he would have been an ultra - Remainer. There is also some evidence that he did acquire a personal vote over the years in that whilst he barely squeaked into Parliament in 1950 , his majority in the original Bexley seat never fell that low again - not even in the 1966 Labour landslide when his majority was 2,333.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 9, 2021 10:49:32 GMT
When would we expect this to happen?
On the same timetable as Chesham and Amersham it would be about Christmas. I wonder if the Conservatives will want it sooner. End of November maybe?
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 9, 2021 10:57:47 GMT
Someone better tell Reading East MP Matt Rodda he's a Tory according to this map. Some of the Blue Wall has already fallen, Oxford West and Abington is another example. Point is that most of the seats were never safe or even Tory for all of the last 20 years, both Reading and Oxford seats are in non-Tory hands or have been during the last 20 years. This whole Red Wall, Blue Wall supposition is simplistic bollocks, concocted by journalists who don't live in or visit these regions at all and I don't know why certain members keep promoting it as verbatim.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 9, 2021 10:59:34 GMT
Someone better tell Reading East MP Matt Rodda he's a Tory according to this map. Or Mike Kane. Who would have known that Wythenshawe was a northern extension of the blue wall... Maybe the blue wall was actually breached all the way back in 1964 after all, when Labour shockingly won over the jet setting, prosecco swilling, upper-middle classes classes of Wythenshawe country estate by campaigning against Tory racism and xenophobia . Yeah, it used to be named Wythenshawe Garden City, don't you know? Some of the most valuable housing in Manchester is found in Roundthorn 🤣🤣🤣
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 9, 2021 11:37:42 GMT
Someone better tell Reading East MP Matt Rodda he's a Tory according to this map. Or Mike Kane. Who would have known that Wythenshawe was a northern extension of the blue wall... Maybe the blue wall was actually breached all the way back in 1964 after all, when Labour shockingly won over the jet setting, prosecco swilling, upper-middle classes classes of Wythenshawe country estate by campaigning against Tory racism and xenophobia . It was a victory made all the more shocking by Labour's defeat in their traditional red wall bastion next door. Harold Wilson and his backbenchers became embroiled in arguments about why Macclesfield went Tory!
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Post by justin124 on Oct 9, 2021 11:41:41 GMT
Or Mike Kane. Who would have known that Wythenshawe was a northern extension of the blue wall... Maybe the blue wall was actually breached all the way back in 1964 after all, when Labour shockingly won over the jet setting, prosecco swilling, upper-middle classes classes of Wythenshawe country estate by campaigning against Tory racism and xenophobia . It was a victory made all the more shocking by Labour's defeat in their traditional red wall bastion next door. Harold Wilson and his backbenchers became embroiled in arguments about why Macclesfield went Tory! Macclesfield nearly went Labour at the Autumn 1971 by election when Nicholas Winterton was first elected. Labour's candidate was Diana Jeudah
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 9, 2021 11:45:44 GMT
Macclesfield is a textile town, although the textile in question is silk so it's a cut above the rest of them. But it has Labour bits, and the big Tory vote comes from the wealthier outer villages like Prestbury and Bollington and Manchester commuter territory. Also Nick Winterton had a big personal vote from the early 1980s on.
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Post by where2travel on Oct 9, 2021 12:08:21 GMT
Macclesfield is a textile town, although the textile in question is silk so it's a cut above the rest of them. But it has Labour bits, and the big Tory vote comes from the wealthier outer villages like Prestbury and Bollington and Manchester commuter territory. Also Nick Winterton had a big personal vote from the early 1980s on. Agreed. Macc itself (known as Silk Town, although I remember my parents always called it Treacle Town, which seemed to be its other main nickname) is pretty reliable for Labour (and becoming more so). You don't have to go far in any direction from the town to easily see where the Tory votes pile up. A big chunk of the irritatingly-labelled "Golden Triangle" in Cheshire is in this constituency, from Prestbury to Mottram St Andrew.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 9, 2021 14:22:12 GMT
Accepted that I didn't properly scruntise the map, I liked it at first glace because it actually kept both Red and Blue as "Walls", which is my biggest annoyance with the use of "Red Wall" in the media, it's now a meaningless term describing a seat north of Watford that has voted for Labour in the last 30 years. The Yougov MRP from earlier this week including a Birmingham seat in there was maddening. But my main point still stands. OB&S is definitively, 100%, without a shadow of doubt, NOT a "Blue Wall" seat. Who knows? Who cares? All blue wall/red wall discourse is meaningless crap and whilst I can forgive journalists for it people on this forum should know better. "Not blue wall" is in pretty much the same category as "won't elect a Green" www.greatgreenwall.org/about-great-green-wall
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 9, 2021 15:03:30 GMT
I really should’ve looked at the map before posting it huh. Suppose that’ll teach me for not critically analysing things posted on Twitter! Don’t think I’ve ever seen you lot this annoyed before 😬
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 9, 2021 15:11:40 GMT
I really should’ve looked at the map before posting it huh. Suppose that’ll teach me for not critically analysing things posted on Twitter! Don’t think I’ve ever seen you lot this annoyed before 😬 Write out one hundred times...
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Post by greatkingrat on Oct 9, 2021 15:22:25 GMT
This may be the safest Tory seat in London It May also be the richest I would have thought it's quite a long way from being the richest seat in London. Indeed, it's not even in the top half. Median income for Old Bexley & Sidcup in 2018-19 was 29k, putting it joint 42nd out of 73 constituencies. Top 5 are Cities of London & Westminster (44.3k), Richmond Park (42k), Chelsea & Fulham (40.9k), Battersea (38.4k) and Kensington (38.1k).
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Post by where2travel on Oct 9, 2021 20:13:46 GMT
I would have thought it's quite a long way from being the richest seat in London. Indeed, it's not even in the top half. Median income for Old Bexley & Sidcup in 2018-19 was 29k, putting it joint 42nd out of 73 constituencies. Top 5 are Cities of London & Westminster (44.3k), Richmond Park (42k), Chelsea & Fulham (40.9k), Battersea (38.4k) and Kensington (38.1k). That's if you define "rich" by income. On other measures, constituencies such as Battersea and Kensington may fair less well and OB&S a bit better, but it's all relative. On any measure of wealth OB&S is middling for London.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 9, 2021 20:31:46 GMT
Haven't checked but this seat may have registered the highest Tory share in London. someone mentioned upthread that it had the third largest Tory lead, behind Orpington and Hornchurch & Upminster, and of these H&U has a higher Tory share as well though Orpington does not.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 9, 2021 20:38:14 GMT
Haven't checked but this seat may have registered the highest Tory share in London. someone mentioned upthread that it had the third largest Tory lead, behind Orpington and Hornchurch & Upminster, and of these H&U has a higher Tory share as well though Orpington does not. Correct. In 2019 the Conservatives polled 65.8% in Hornchurch & Upminster and 64.5% in Old Bexley & Sidcup.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 9, 2021 20:49:23 GMT
Haven't checked but this seat may have registered the highest Tory share in London. 64.5% in 2019
Narrowly beaten by Hornchurch and Upminster (65.8%) and Romford (64.6%)
Orpington not far behind with 63.4%, having been in first position in 2017
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