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Post by agbutler on Oct 9, 2021 21:07:43 GMT
This is a seat that Reform UK would probably want to try hard for in a by-election I would have thought.
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Post by southernliberal on Oct 9, 2021 23:06:51 GMT
Saw a post earlier about the Lib Dems being disappointed if they didn't take this seat which seemed incredibly disingenuous given how different the two seats are for the Lib Dems:
Old Bexley and Sidcup - 62% Leave, just 8% of the vote won in 2019, no local councillor base, Lib Dems have never come second - last Liberal second place was in the 80's
Chesham and Amersham - 45% Leave, 26% of the vote won in 2019, strong local councillor base, Aside from 2015 and 2017 the Lib Dems and predecessor parties had consistently been in second place since the 70's
BUT, I thought I'd have a think about what would be a great, good or bad night for the main three parties:
Conservatives great night: A hold with a similar or slightly reduced majority as 2019 (41-points) which was the largest majority achieved in this seat since 1987 (41.5-points).
Conservatives good night: Holding the seat by around 20 to 35-points with a reduced majority in percentage terms but still a solid hold and a failure to see any sign of a strong anti-government backlash.
Conservatives bad night: Any hold of less than around 20-points - Conservatives held the seat by 7 and 8-points in 1997 and 2001 and 22-points in 2005 when Labour were winning majorities nationwide so these would be key markers to place in analysing any poor performance by the Tories.
Labour great night: Labour's 23.5% in 2019 and 29.3% in 2017 was still the parties best showings since 2005 (27.5%) and 2001 (37.5%) so the party is actually starting from, for this seat, quite a high base compared to earlier in the decade where in both 2010 and 2015 when the party couldn't even muster 20% support. Given this, a modest rise up to 30% support or higher could be seen as a positive outcome to be cheered.
Labour good night: Other than Airdre and Shotts earlier this year, the last time before this that Labour increased their share of the vote, as compared to the previous general election, in a parliamentary by-election was in 2016, so any increase in their share of the vote from 2019 would be seen as relatively positive.
Labour bad night: Any fall backwards, but especially if it is to less than 20% support - the previous worst performances for the party was in 2015 and 2010 (Both 19%) which was the first time since the 80's they recorded less than one fifth of support, so that would be pretty disappointing for the party. In addition if Labour don't manage second place, which they have achieved in every election from 1992 onwards.
Lib Dems great night: The 8% the party achieved in 2019 was the parties best results since 2010, a great result though would see the party successfully challenge Labour for second - clearly this would get no where near the coverage as Chesham and Amersham got but would still show the party can pull off by-election surprises even in less hospitable seats.
Lib Dems good night: Given its a relatively low stakes by-election for the party, avoiding getting squeezed and increasing their share of the vote back up to the 13-16% range that the party achieved consistently in every single election between 1992 and 2010, pre-coalition.
Lib Dems bad night: Failing to save their deposit and/or falling to fourth place behind the Greens wouldn't be a good night for the party, but would probably show that they didn't take the by-election too seriously.
Let me know your thoughts on the above.
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Post by monksfield on Oct 10, 2021 6:56:00 GMT
I may be swimming against the tide but I don't see this as fertile territory for the LibDems at all, indeed, it may be one to run a very low key campaign.
More interested in seeing whether Starmer could revive Labour fortunes a bit here.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 10, 2021 7:28:34 GMT
I may be swimming against the tide but I don't see this as fertile territory for the LibDems at all, indeed, it may be one to run a very low key campaign. More interested in seeing whether Starmer could revive Labour fortunes a bit here. As far as the tide on here is concerned, you seem to be very much swimming with the tide, except for mischief makers from the right ( or even the right) |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 10, 2021 8:39:31 GMT
Indeed, it's not even in the top half. Median income for Old Bexley & Sidcup in 2018-19 was 29k, putting it joint 42nd out of 73 constituencies. Top 5 are Cities of London & Westminster (44.3k), Richmond Park (42k), Chelsea & Fulham (40.9k), Battersea (38.4k) and Kensington (38.1k). That's if you define "rich" by income. On other measures, constituencies such as Battersea and Kensington may fair less well and OB&S a bit better, but it's all relative. On any measure of wealth OB&S is middling for London. That *is* the definition of "rich". "rich" = income, "wealthy" = assets. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 10, 2021 9:09:58 GMT
It's terribly sad news. A very good man who even if you had crossed swords with him was always kind and personable if you met him later. Not something you could say of many politicians who got that far. I take it that the lead is too much for Labour to overturn and a Liberal breakout would be the most plausible way for this to fall, buy this last had a Liberal second place in the 1980s. This blog puts the Referendum result as almost 2:1 to Leave, but that's not going to be enough on its own to stop a Liberal breakout democraticdashboard.com/constituency/old-bexley-and-sidcupIt's not as promising as Chesham, but the Liberals must be disappointed if they lose this by-election. The demographics are totally wrong for the LDs in this constituency. Even in 1983 and 1987 the Alliance only got the same share as their national showing, around 26% and 21%. Though that was enough for second place in both elections. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on Oct 10, 2021 10:41:27 GMT
I may be swimming against the tide but I don't see this as fertile territory for the LibDems at all, indeed, it may be one to run a very low key campaign. More interested in seeing whether Starmer could revive Labour fortunes a bit here. As far as the tide on here is concerned, you seem to be very much swimming with the tide, except for mischief makers from the right ( or even the right) This won't be a 2:1 victory like Chesham, but not being able to scare the Tories in this seat will show that the ceiling on the Lib Dem recovery is far lower than currently declared. Fair enough, third parties have more of an upside and less of a downside when overstating their potential than the big two do. And Labour keeping their second place - which should be doomed in this by-election - would be excellent news for the Tories. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 10, 2021 11:13:00 GMT
As far as the tide on here is concerned, you seem to be very much swimming with the tide, except for mischief makers from the right ( or even the right) This won't be a 2:1 victory like Chesham, but not being able to scare the Tories in this seat will show that the ceiling on the Lib Dem recovery is far lower than currently declared. Fair enough, third parties have more of an upside and less of a downside when overstating their potential than the big two do. And Labour keeping their second place - which should be doomed in this by-election - would be excellent news for the Tories. I think you have done your bit and can emerge from under the bridge now! |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Oct 10, 2021 11:40:53 GMT
Other than Airdre and Shotts earlier this year, I'd already forgotten that. One of those by elections, like Sleaford, that in years to come people will have to check the exact year. |
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 10, 2021 12:29:50 GMT
I wonder if 'right' is Grant Shapps? (Ealing by-election reference).
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on Oct 10, 2021 12:54:31 GMT
This won't be a 2:1 victory like Chesham, but not being able to scare the Tories in this seat will show that the ceiling on the Lib Dem recovery is far lower than currently declared. Fair enough, third parties have more of an upside and less of a downside when overstating their potential than the big two do. And Labour keeping their second place - which should be doomed in this by-election - would be excellent news for the Tories. I think you have done your bit and can emerge from under the bridge now! If this seat is out of scope for you, how many blue wall seats are in scope for you? Off the top of my head fewer than 50 prosperous Remain voting suburban Tory seats. That's reasonably OK for a focussed General Election, if slightly underwhelming, but there's a nontrivial chance that none of those seats will come up in by-elections this Parliament. The blue wall is safe if the Tories don't need to sweat this seat. |
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 10, 2021 13:05:52 GMT
Chesham and Amersham was 51st on the Lib Dem's list of targets, OB&S is 347th.
Failure by the Lib Dems to take OB&S will be a clear indication of something I agree, that we can't go back to our constituencies and prepare for government.
To imply that it 'makes the blue wall safe' if the Lib Dems don't come close here is massively over-stating your case, and I suspect that you know it...
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 10, 2021 13:23:34 GMT
I think you have done your bit and can emerge from under the bridge now! If this seat is out of scope for you, how many blue wall seats are in scope for you? Off the top of my head fewer than 50 prosperous Remain voting suburban Tory seats. That's reasonably OK for a focussed General Election, if slightly underwhelming, but there's a nontrivial chance that none of those seats will come up in by-elections this Parliament. The blue wall is safe if the Tories don't need to sweat this seat. I will be delighted with a gain of 50 seats, thankyou! That will ensure an undeniable and inevitable increase in government competence since you lot will no longer be in charge. (admittedly I am setting a very low bar in the competence stakes) |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on Oct 10, 2021 13:49:46 GMT
If this seat is out of scope for you, how many blue wall seats are in scope for you? Off the top of my head fewer than 50 prosperous Remain voting suburban Tory seats. That's reasonably OK for a focussed General Election, if slightly underwhelming, but there's a nontrivial chance that none of those seats will come up in by-elections this Parliament. The blue wall is safe if the Tories don't need to sweat this seat. I will be delighted with a gain of 50 seats, thankyou! That will ensure an undeniable and inevitable increase in government competence since you lot will no longer be in charge. (admittedly I am setting a very low bar in the competence stakes) I was talking about an absolute ceiling of seats, not baked in gains You won't need to prepare for government when you go to your constituency |
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 10, 2021 13:52:26 GMT
I will be delighted with a gain of 50 seats, thankyou! That will ensure an undeniable and inevitable increase in government competence since you lot will no longer be in charge. (admittedly I am setting a very low bar in the competence stakes) I was talking about an absolute ceiling of seats, not baked in gains You won't need to prepare for government when you go to your constituency We know this - but at least we show signs of THINKING about being prepared for being in government, unlike the current shower... :-) |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on Oct 10, 2021 13:52:50 GMT
Chesham and Amersham was 51st on the Lib Dem's list of targets, OB&S is 347th. Failure by the Lib Dems to take OB&S will be a clear indication of something I agree, that we can't go back to our constituencies and prepare for government. To imply that it 'makes the blue wall safe' if the Lib Dems don't come close here is massively over-stating your case, and I suspect that you know it... But the blue wall strategy shakes these things up and deprioritises rural and Labour seats which are in both the top 50 and 350. And yes, you should be getting and certainly challenging in seats where you wouldn't have a prayer in the General Election |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 10, 2021 13:56:36 GMT
Labour did come within 4,000 votes here in both 1997 and 2001.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Oct 10, 2021 17:26:53 GMT
I was wanted to add a reminder that should this thread be given a poll, the by-elections for the Commons this year have defied Vote2012 polls. Hartlepool, Batley & Spen and C&A all went the other way to what was confidently predicted. I grew up in Bexleyheath, in the neighbouring constituency. Bexley Village and Chislehurst are very Conservative; Sidcup less so. Personally, it'd tag this as a solid, quiet Conservative hold because I cannot see the LD by-election machine making a real impact. Whereabouts? (And if not too personal a question, which school did you go to?) |
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jamesg
Forum Regular
Posts: 253
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Post by jamesg on Oct 10, 2021 18:15:35 GMT
I was wanted to add a reminder that should this thread be given a poll, the by-elections for the Commons this year have defied Vote2012 polls. Hartlepool, Batley & Spen and C&A all went the other way to what was confidently predicted. I grew up in Bexleyheath, in the neighbouring constituency. Bexley Village and Chislehurst are very Conservative; Sidcup less so. Personally, it'd tag this as a solid, quiet Conservative hold because I cannot see the LD by-election machine making a real impact. Whereabouts? (And if not too personal a question, which school did you go to?) Cuxton Close (behind the Red House) then Brunswick Road: that's the Upton Ward, I believe. Moved to Woolwich - not my choice - when I was seven. Went to Woolwich Poly and can confirm that Woolwich is hell. My grandparents still live in Bexleyheath on Gravel Road and I was always there as a kid. Returned to Bexleyheath aged 18 and lived on a flat on Broadway above a shop there for some time. I moved up to Norwich for a year - woman related - and then returned to live on Woodlands Road near the train station in a house-share until 2009, before moving to Hull after that. I know the whole area, well as it was then, through childhood: nicer place to be than Woolwich. I went to an adult education college in Sidcup and had jobs in Welling, Slade Green & Dartford. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 10, 2021 18:27:50 GMT
Chesham and Amersham was 51st on the Lib Dem's list of targets, OB&S is 347th. Failure by the Lib Dems to take OB&S will be a clear indication of something I agree, that we can't go back to our constituencies and prepare for government. To imply that it 'makes the blue wall safe' if the Lib Dems don't come close here is massively over-stating your case, and I suspect that you know it... But the blue wall strategy shakes these things up and deprioritises rural and Labour seats which are in both the top 50 and 350. And yes, you should be getting and certainly challenging in seats where you wouldn't have a prayer in the General Election Well, if that is your interpretation of the Lib Dem "blue wall strategy" please do convey it persuasively to your Central Office. |
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