iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Oct 10, 2021 20:23:49 GMT
Whereabouts? (And if not too personal a question, which school did you go to?) Cuxton Close (behind the Red House) then Brunswick Road: that's the Upton Ward, I believe. Moved to Woolwich - not my choice - when I was seven. Went to Woolwich Poly and can confirm that Woolwich is hell. My grandparents still live in Bexleyheath on Gravel Road and I was always there as a kid. Returned to Bexleyheath aged 18 and lived on a flat on Broadway above a shop there for some time. I moved up to Norwich for a year - woman related - and then returned to live on Woodlands Road near the train station in a house-share until 2009, before moving to Hull after that. I know the whole area, well as it was then, through childhood: nicer place to be than Woolwich. I went to an adult education college in Sidcup and had jobs in Welling, Slade Green & Dartford. I grew up in Erith, then we moved to Bexley when I was eleven, the house where my parents still live. Blendon and Penhill ward, the other end of Danson Park |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 11, 2021 13:10:09 GMT
The problem the Lib Dems now have with the 'Blue Wall' strategy is that pretty much any suburban south east/London seat held by the Tories will be seen through this filter. Lazy Westminster journalists will look at the C&A win and the Lib Dem spin on their victory - it wasn't about remain it was about infrastructure and planning reform. The latter clearly applies here almost as much as in C&A. The expectations raised by Davey that "the Liberal Democrats are the main threat to the Conservatives in huge swathes of the country.” www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/lib-dems-can-topple-tory-blue-wall-in-south-of-england-says-leader will inevitably lead to journalists speculating this is the next by-election win for them. This will obviously be tempered by LD expectation management and the more switched on journos understanding the differences between the two seats. But it does mean significant progress by the Lib Dems will be expected - it is after all next to Orpington and Bromley and Chislehurst. That's the filter it is almost certainly going to be seen through. So what then do the Lib Dems need to do? I'd say second place and reducing the Tory majority would mean they could claim credibly the 'Blue Wall' is a thing. It's almost a free hit for Starmer though - a big increase in the Labout vote with a much decreased Tory majority (or even an unlikely win) would automatically sink the Lib Dem Blue Wall startegy as Labour is in second place in more Tory seats in the south east. But as said upthread - it's probably one of those 'as you were' by-elections that sink into obscurity afterwards. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 11, 2021 13:32:33 GMT
We should also not forget that in this century an MP for OBS sat on the Lib Dem benches.
(Okay this was part of a fight over who got to sit on the opposition bench below the gangway with Sir Edward Heath retaining the corner seat but still...)
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Post by justin124 on Oct 11, 2021 15:43:37 GMT
We should also not forget that in this century an MP for OBS sat on the Lib Dem benches. (Okay this was part of a fight over who got to sit on the opposition bench below the gangway with Sir Edward Heath retaining the corner seat but still...) They were hardly LD benches just because they decided to occupy them! |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Oct 11, 2021 15:58:46 GMT
It would be good to see Johnson and his government get a good rinsing here but I think it is out of reach for both opposition parties.
Even if Reform stand and take a healthy vote share (the latter seems unlikely) - I think it'll remain in the blue column.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 11, 2021 17:35:08 GMT
It would be good to see Johnson and his government get a good rinsing here but I think it is out of reach for both opposition parties. Even if Reform stand and take a healthy vote share (the latter seems unlikely) - I think it'll remain in the blue column. I think the 2nd/3rd battle will be more intense than that for 1st/2nd. I've forgotten already whose project Reform is so I suspect any traction may be limited. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 12, 2021 9:16:53 GMT
It's almost a free hit for Starmer though - a big increase in the Labout vote with a much decreased Tory majority (or even an unlikely win) would automatically sink the Lib Dem Blue Wall startegy as Labour is in second place in more Tory seats in the south east. Why would that be advantageous for Labour? We want to ensure that we're viewed as the primary challenger in seats like Basingstoke and Dover, but there are hardly likely to be serious LD challenges in those seats anyway. But in most seats in the SE (even if we are in second place) we have a much lower ceiling than the LDs and couldn't win them unless we were on course for a 1997-style result. Having the LDs challenge in seats like that increases the chance of a hung Parliament (where we'd have more possible partners than the Tories on present evidence) and also draws Tory resources away from traditional Lab/Con marginals. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 12, 2021 10:38:16 GMT
The problem the Lib Dems now have with the 'Blue Wall' strategy is that pretty much any suburban south east/London seat held by the Tories will be seen through this filter. Lazy Westminster journalists will look at the C&A win and the Lib Dem spin on their victory - it wasn't about remain it was about infrastructure and planning reform. The latter clearly applies here almost as much as in C&A. The expectations raised by Davey that "the Liberal Democrats are the main threat to the Conservatives in huge swathes of the country.” www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/lib-dems-can-topple-tory-blue-wall-in-south-of-england-says-leader will inevitably lead to journalists speculating this is the next by-election win for them. This will obviously be tempered by LD expectation management and the more switched on journos understanding the differences between the two seats. But it does mean significant progress by the Lib Dems will be expected - it is after all next to Orpington and Bromley and Chislehurst. That's the filter it is almost certainly going to be seen through. So what then do the Lib Dems need to do? I'd say second place and reducing the Tory majority would mean they could claim credibly the 'Blue Wall' is a thing. It's almost a free hit for Starmer though - a big increase in the Labout vote with a much decreased Tory majority (or even an unlikely win) would automatically sink the Lib Dem Blue Wall startegy as Labour is in second place in more Tory seats in the south east. But as said upthread - it's probably one of those 'as you were' by-elections that sink into obscurity afterwards. I don’t think this seat matches the “blue wall” demographic. Sure it’s voted Conservative for donkeys years but the blue wall was about well educated affluent middle and upper classes which this seat doesn't quite have. As also said a key factor of C&A was the historic results with the Lib Dems performing above average and Labour below average. This seat, even in a by-election, is not and should not be considered winnable for the Lib Dems. And if the media talk it up for the Lib Dems they’re showing the same arrogance, laziness and ineptitude they displayed up to and including the close of polls in C&A. If Labour are serious about forming the next government they should aim for ~ 30% of the vote here as a minimum. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2021 10:41:07 GMT
It's almost a free hit for Starmer though - a big increase in the Labout vote with a much decreased Tory majority (or even an unlikely win) would automatically sink the Lib Dem Blue Wall startegy as Labour is in second place in more Tory seats in the south east. Why would that be advantageous for Labour? We want to ensure that we're viewed as the primary challenger in seats like Basingstoke and Dover, but there are hardly likely to be serious LD challenges in those seats anyway. But in most seats in the SE (even if we are in second place) we have a much lower ceiling than the LDs and couldn't win them unless we were on course for a 1997-style result. Having the LDs challenge in seats like that increases the chance of a hung Parliament (where we'd have more possible partners than the Tories on present evidence) and also draws Tory resources away from traditional Lab/Con marginals. I think this is slight 3-D chess thinking, tbh. The media will portray Labour dropping to third here as a bad result and a "blow to Starmer". There is a decent probability another Tory vacancy that is a better LibDem prospect will emerge before this parliament is out. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 12, 2021 11:14:53 GMT
Why would that be advantageous for Labour? We want to ensure that we're viewed as the primary challenger in seats like Basingstoke and Dover, but there are hardly likely to be serious LD challenges in those seats anyway. But in most seats in the SE (even if we are in second place) we have a much lower ceiling than the LDs and couldn't win them unless we were on course for a 1997-style result. Having the LDs challenge in seats like that increases the chance of a hung Parliament (where we'd have more possible partners than the Tories on present evidence) and also draws Tory resources away from traditional Lab/Con marginals. I think this is slight 3-D chess thinking, tbh. The media will portray Labour dropping to third here as a bad result and a "blow to Starmer". There is a decent probability another Tory vacancy that is a better LibDem prospect will emerge before this parliament is out. I agree falling to third would not be great for Starmer, but it happened in Witney without obvious consequences in the subsequent general election. There is obviously a potential for quite a big drop in the Tory vote in a by-election here. However there is no platform of past performance or local govt to build on for the Lib Dems here, unlike Witney. I would say it is unlikely the order of the top two will change. There may well be an increase in votes for other Parties, but the Greens could easily come third if there is not much Lib Dem effort. Refuk may do OK. But at the end of the day most people will not notice |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 12, 2021 13:37:10 GMT
Sounds like it could be a short campaign unlike C&A
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 12, 2021 15:48:05 GMT
Sounds like it could be a short campaign unlike C&A Get it over with before gas bills really kick in and people get 1 sausage roll each for Christmas Dinner... |
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Post by samdwebber on Oct 12, 2021 19:23:32 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 13, 2021 10:37:46 GMT
Why would that be advantageous for Labour? We want to ensure that we're viewed as the primary challenger in seats like Basingstoke and Dover, but there are hardly likely to be serious LD challenges in those seats anyway. But in most seats in the SE (even if we are in second place) we have a much lower ceiling than the LDs and couldn't win them unless we were on course for a 1997-style result. Having the LDs challenge in seats like that increases the chance of a hung Parliament (where we'd have more possible partners than the Tories on present evidence) and also draws Tory resources away from traditional Lab/Con marginals. I think this is slight 3-D chess thinking, tbh. The media will portray Labour dropping to third here as a bad result and a "blow to Starmer". There is a decent probability another Tory vacancy that is a better LibDem prospect will emerge before this parliament is out. Agree that dropping to third wouldn't be seen as a good result, but there's no particular upside to us in beating the Lib Dems, because the Blue Wall talk is not unhelpful. It's just that there's a downside to us from being beaten by them. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 13, 2021 10:45:06 GMT
I predict Con 17k Lab 9k LD 6k
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 13, 2021 10:48:37 GMT
Tories will drop a bit below 50% I reckon, but maybe not totally wrong there.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 13, 2021 15:42:59 GMT
I will run a prediction competition for this one.
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 13, 2021 19:21:19 GMT
Con 14,000; Lab 6000; LibDem 3000; Green 1700; Reform 1600.
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 13, 2021 20:17:35 GMT
This is, of course, predicated on Johnson not doing something that irrevocably damages him in the eyes of the electorate, which at some point he will.
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 14, 2021 0:11:47 GMT
Which is the most Parliamentarian?
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