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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2021 5:19:15 GMT
Which is the most Parliamentarian? "Least supportive in the country Liverpool, Riverside Glasgow Central Manchester Central Bristol West Edinburgh East Birmingham, Ladywood Sheffield South East Manchester, Withington Aberdeen North Glasgow North Most supportive in the country Old Bexley and Sidcup Christchurch Hornchurch and Upminster South Staffordshire Rayleigh and Wickford Brentwood and Ongar Aldridge-Brownhills Castle Point Clacton Sleaford and North Hykeham" election.unherd.com/home/ and only 3 constituencies are plurality parliamentarian |
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Post by where2travel on Oct 14, 2021 7:40:37 GMT
Which is the most Parliamentarian? "Most supportive in the country Old Bexley and Sidcup Christchurch Hornchurch and Upminster South Staffordshire Rayleigh and Wickford Brentwood and Ongar Aldridge-Brownhills Castle Point Clacton Sleaford and North Hykeham" election.unherd.com/home/OB&S (still at 64.5%) has the lowest 2019 Conservative vote share of them all, which shows the constituencies we're looking at here (not at all surprisingly). |
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Post by samdwebber on Oct 21, 2021 13:08:23 GMT
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Post by agbutler on Oct 27, 2021 19:43:08 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 27, 2021 20:15:39 GMT
Sounds like it could be a short campaign unlike C&A Doesn't necessarily mean they'll move the writ quickly – there's a certain appeal to a Thursday January 6, 2022, date for by-elections from a ratfuck perspective. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2021 20:22:22 GMT
As we have 4 confirmed or possible by-elections waiting I wonder if they'll be tempted to try and do them all together?
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
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Post by mondialito on Oct 27, 2021 20:33:31 GMT
As we have 4 confirmed or possible by-elections waiting I wonder if they'll be tempted to try and do them all together? I imagine this would be scheduled with Southend West, but the other two have some way to run before they are scheduled, if at all. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 27, 2021 21:48:05 GMT
As we have 4 confirmed or possible by-elections waiting I wonder if they'll be tempted to try and do them all together? Of core snot. Two are already vacant, and the other two have several months to go before the recall process is finished. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 27, 2021 22:01:06 GMT
Which is the most Parliamentarian? "Least supportive in the country Liverpool, Riverside Glasgow Central Manchester Central Bristol West Edinburgh East Birmingham, Ladywood Sheffield South East Manchester, Withington Aberdeen North Glasgow North Slightly surprised in Sheffield South East being on there. It's not even the part of Sheffield I'd've expected to be worst. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Oct 27, 2021 22:31:04 GMT
Francis is a Cllr for Belvedere ward in Bexley Murphy is a former Lambeth Cllr who works for thinktank Storm is involved in the Fabian Society. From Hampstead and Kilburn CLP Taggart-Ryan is from Eltham CLP |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Oct 28, 2021 11:12:37 GMT
So what does the blue wall realistically mean if OB&S is not in it, even for a by-election when the bounds will be far wider?
It must be a bit more than St Albans and Amersham and maybe ten other constituencies
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,765
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Post by right on Oct 28, 2021 11:13:30 GMT
I predict Con 17k Lab 9k LD 6k Why do you think the Lib Dems won't come second? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 28, 2021 11:19:50 GMT
So what does the blue wall realistically mean if OB&S is not in it, even for a by-election when the bounds will be far wider? It must be a bit more than St Albans and Amersham and maybe ten other constituencies The Blue Wall could conceivably be anywhere with a larger than average proportion of graduates, for instance. Old Bexley and Sidcup isn't in that category because it has an average number of graduates IIRC. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 28, 2021 11:20:41 GMT
I predict Con 17k Lab 9k LD 6k Why do you think the Lib Dems won't come second? You could turn the question around and ask why they would come second. This isn't exactly a very LD-friendly part of the country. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,765
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Post by right on Oct 28, 2021 11:30:54 GMT
Why do you think the Lib Dems won't come second? You could turn the question around and ask why they would come second. This isn't exactly a very LD-friendly part of the country. Fair question. Why the Lib Dems should come second: 1. Lib Dems have by far the best by-election machine - and this counts for second place as well as first place 2. Labour can't win that seat unless they're Blair level popular and the electorate know this - and electorate vaguely aware that Lib Dems can win in all sorts of unlikely places 3. Lib Dems also tend to do well in by-elections when the opposition leader is a bit uninspiring - as it is now 4. If the Blue Wall is anything other than hype derived from a freak election result then it needs to apply to other southern Tory seats - at least to the exceedingly modest level of overtaking Labour in a by-election for seat Labour can't win 5. The seat is chock full of Tory voters and Tory voters are far, far, far more likely to vote Lib Dem as a protest than they are to vote Labour - particularly with the sour after taste of Corbyn in their mouths |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Oct 28, 2021 13:20:38 GMT
Has the date been set for this yet?
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 28, 2021 15:23:33 GMT
Has the date been set for this yet? Wikipedia doesn't have a date and I'm sure someone would have updated it if a date had been set. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2021 17:31:23 GMT
I predict Con 17k Lab 9k LD 6k Why do you think the Lib Dems won't come second? Because not one single person with more than a primary school level of understanding if politics does |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2021 17:32:55 GMT
So what does the blue wall realistically mean if OB&S is not in it, even for a by-election when the bounds will be far wider? It must be a bit more than St Albans and Amersham and maybe ten other constituencies Wealthy constituencies with a higher than average remain votes and number of graduates. Only one of those things is actually true here |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Oct 28, 2021 20:27:23 GMT
Cllr Daniel Francis has been selected as Labour's candidate.
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