|
|
Post by andrew111 on Oct 1, 2021 10:44:43 GMT
That is a lot of anti Labour votes. And even more anti-LD votes. Most voters obviously hate the LDs! I expect the Lib Dems will take this seat in the next local elections, now the electors know who to vote for. Topping 50% would not surprise me either |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2021 11:15:11 GMT
Possibly, but as with the recent Sheffield near miss devoting as many resources to it as in a regular council election may be tricky.
|
|
|
|
Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Oct 1, 2021 11:39:23 GMT
East Hampshire: Horndean Downs - Green gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | | since 2015 * | since 2011 * | | Green | 320 | 49.2% | +33.3% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 291 | 44.7% | -8.0% |
| -25.5% | -19.8% | | Independent | 40 | 6.1% | -12.6% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat |
|
| -12.8% |
| -7.1% | -24.2% | | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -15.4% |
| | Labour |
|
|
|
| -7.3% | -11.4% | | Total votes | 651 |
| 81% |
| Row 8 column 6 | Row 8 column 7 |
* boundary changes Swing: Conservative to Green 20¾% since 2019 Council now: 31 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Independent East Staffordshire: Tutbury & Outwoods - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 549 | 44.3% | -13.4% | -13.4% | -2.8% | -2.0% | | Independent ^ | 464 | 37.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 186 | 15.0% | -27.2% | -27.2% | -10.6% | -9.7% | | Green | 39 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -4.6% | -5.1% | | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -19.5% | -20.7% | | Total votes | 1,238 |
| 77% | 80% | 33% | 35% |
^ Independent was Labour candidate in 2019 Swing: not meaningful Council now: 24 Conservative, 11 Labour, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Centre Right Independent Eden: Penrith West - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | 2015 result | | Liberal Democrat | 173 | 43.5% | +2.8% | +1.4% | 35.9% | | Conservative | 87 | 21.9% | -1.0% | -1.8% | 34.3% | | Independent | 51 | 12.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| | Labour | 40 | 10.1% | -12.1% | -9.4% | 29.9% | | Putting Cumbria First | 28 | 7.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| | Green | 19 | 4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| | UKIP |
|
| -14.4% | -14.9% |
| | Total votes | 398 |
| 57% | 59% | 25% |
Swing: if meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2% / 1½% since 2019 Council now: 13 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent Alliance, 4 Independent Group, 2 Labour, 2 Green Sunderland: Hetton - Labour hold | Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | | Labour | 661 | 31.6% | -13.1% | -1.7% | -21.9% | -20.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 634 | 30.3% | +28.1% | +26.6% | +28.4% | +27.2% | | Independent Geddis | 386 | 18.5% | -1.2% | -3.1% | -10.4% | +13.9% | | Conservative | 303 | 14.5% | -4.9% | +8.8% | +1.5% | +9.1% | | Independent Allen | 67 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 41 | 2.0% | -0.9% | from nowhere | -0.7% | from nowhere | | UKIP |
|
| -11.1% | -28.7% |
| -35.1% | | Democrats & Veterans |
|
|
| -7.0% |
|
| | Total votes | 2,092 |
| 74% | 70% | 76% | 71% |
Swing: labour to Liberal Democrat 20½% since May, 14¼% since 2019, 25½% since 2018 and 23¾% since 2016 Council now: 42 Labour, 19 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 2 Wearside Independent Swale: Priory - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | | Liberal Democrat ^ | 215 | 38.1% | -13.7% | from nowhere | | Conservative | 173 | 30.6% | +1.5% | +1.5% | | Green | 128 | 22.7% | +15.2%% | +17.7% | | Labour | 49 | 8.7% | -3.0% | -7.4% | | Independent |
|
|
| -49.9% | | Total votes | 565 |
| 77% | 46% |
^ Liberal Democrat candidate was Independent councillor elected in 2015 Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 7½% since 2019 Council now: 17 Conservative, 10 Labour, 8 Swale Independent Alliance, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 2 Green, 2 Independent First, 1 Reform West Suffolk: The Rows - Conservative gain from Independent who did not contest seat | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Conservative | 428 | 65.2% | +26.5% | +26.1% | | Labour | 126 | 19.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 102 | 15.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independents |
|
| -61.3% | -60.9% | | Total votes | 656 |
| 63% | 72% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 41 Conservative, 11 Independent, 6 West Suffolk Independent, 4 Labour, 1 Green, 1 not specified There was some talk earlier in the thread of a Labour conference boost.... |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2021 11:46:24 GMT
Tbf the post I remember from that was the observation that the seats weren't very well designed for that even if there was one.
We surely all know by now how (not) popular the Labour-run council in Sunderland is, and apart from that there wasn't much for them to exploit.
|
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on Oct 1, 2021 11:54:30 GMT
A good set of results for the Greens; OK for the LibDems; pretty poor for Labour; and not too bad for the Conservatives. The results in Broadland were the most odd though: it looks quite uncommon for both the Greens and the LibDems to significantly increase their share of the vote at the same time.
|
|
peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
|
Post by peterl on Oct 1, 2021 12:10:45 GMT
A good set of results for the Greens; OK for the LibDems; pretty poor for Labour; and not too bad for the Conservatives. The results in Broadland were the most odd though: it looks quite uncommon for both the Greens and the LibDems to significantly increase their share of the vote at the same time. I would take issue with "not too bad for the Conservatives". 1 gain, 4 losses, net loss of 3, out of a total of 9 seats up for election this week, that is a rather poor result. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 1, 2021 12:29:55 GMT
A good set of results for the Greens; OK for the LibDems; pretty poor for Labour; and not too bad for the Conservatives. The results in Broadland were the most odd though: it looks quite uncommon for both the Greens and the LibDems to significantly increase their share of the vote at the same time. I would take issue with "not too bad for the Conservatives". 1 gain, 4 losses, net loss of 3, out of a total of 9 seats up for election this week, that is a rather poor result. Particularly as the one gain was taking back an independent seat where there was no Indy standing |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Oct 1, 2021 12:44:18 GMT
Possibly, but as with the recent Sheffield near miss devoting as many resources to it as in a regular council election may be tricky. Sunderland Lib Dems seem to be able to gain several seats at a time in a May election no problem. If you look in the 2021 results, a couple of seats were won from nowhere. This will be one of the targets next time I am sure |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
|
Post by Tony Otim on Oct 1, 2021 13:33:38 GMT
I would take issue with "not too bad for the Conservatives". 1 gain, 4 losses, net loss of 3, out of a total of 9 seats up for election this week, that is a rather poor result. Particularly as the one gain was taking back an independent seat where there was no Indy standing And that they almost lost East Staffs as well and that one and 3 of the ones they did lose were pretty safe looking on paper. I actually think its one of the poorest set of results they've had for a while. |
|
|
|
Post by mysticrobin on Oct 1, 2021 13:55:34 GMT
LibDem candidate now 4.8 (3.8/1) on Smarkets as money floods in to support him. Serious question, how much money *does* go on a council byelection? I imagine the market must be pretty easy to "ramp" if anybody was so minded. Four grand last night. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 1, 2021 15:26:11 GMT
Not that this is scientific, but in terms of good night, bad night, for the main parties, the percentage vote achieved against the average prediction of our 14 prediction competition entries is
Conservative
East Hampshire -6% compared to the average prediction
East Staffs -6%
Eden -6%
Sunderland -6%
Swale +1%
West Suffolk +12%
Average -2%
Labour
East Staffs -16%
Eden -7%
Sunderland -12%
Swale -4%
West Suffolk -1%
Average -8%
Lib Dem
Eden +3%
Sunderland +25%
Swale -14%
West Suffolk -20%
Average -1.5%
Green
East Hampshire +24%
East Staffs -9%
Eden -3%
Sunderland -4%
Swale +11%
Average +5%
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2021 15:39:48 GMT
Not that this is scientific, but in terms of good night, bad night, for the main parties, the percentage vote achieved against the average prediction of our 14 prediction competition entries is << snip >> An interesting metric to judge against. Almost worthy of a bar chart.  |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Oct 1, 2021 15:46:47 GMT
HORNDEAN RESULT GREEN. 320 CON. 291 IND. 40 TURNOUT 26.78% Impressive in that area. Helped a lot, no doubt, by the Lib Dems standing aside and the Independent being an ex-UKIP regular, unlikely to take many potential votes away from a Green candidate. Actually back when UKIP were still a thing there was quite a large Green-UKIP crossover vote from people who vote on the establishment/anti-establishment scale, rather than the left/right one.
|
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Oct 1, 2021 15:56:13 GMT
Impressive in that area. Helped a lot, no doubt, by the Lib Dems standing aside and the Independent being an ex-UKIP regular, unlikely to take many potential votes away from a Green candidate. Actually back when UKIP were still a thing there was quite a large Green-UKIP crossover vote from people who vote on the establishment/anti-establishment scale, rather than the left/right one.
I agree. In seats controlled by one of the major parties there's a substantial "not happy with the council (or the incumbent)" vote that is non-ideological in council elections. They can gravitate to the strongest contender. I think a survey of Lib Dem voters always found an otherwise surprising proportion who disagree with the party on high-profile policies (for example Europe). Having an Independent with a UKIP background meant those votes may have been relatively easy to detach while leaving him with some votes that the Tory candidate would have liked. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on Oct 1, 2021 16:54:57 GMT
Re Conservative vote: I know this isn't a psephologically legitimate way of looking at it, but if you add the vote changes from last time where the party in question stood both times the Conservatives total is +0.7%; LibDems +17.2%; Labour -52.4%; Green +47.6%. OK, lots of caveats about the precise patterns of candidature, but overall my contention stands despite the Tory seat losses.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Oct 1, 2021 16:55:57 GMT
Actually back when UKIP were still a thing there was quite a large Green-UKIP crossover vote from people who vote on the establishment/anti-establishment scale, rather than the left/right one.
I agree. In seats controlled by one of the major parties there's a substantial "not happy with the council (or the incumbent)" vote that is non-ideological in council elections. They can gravitate to the strongest contender. I think a survey of Lib Dem voters always found an otherwise surprising proportion who disagree with the party on high-profile policies (for example Europe). Having an Independent with a UKIP background meant those votes may have been relatively easy to detach while leaving him with some votes that the Tory candidate would have liked. The Sunderland Lib Dems are pretty clearly harvesting that vote at local level. But as we know, substantial numbers of voters for both main Parties disagree with their Party on flagship policies like Europe, and stay loyal even when the policy flips around. |
|
|
|
Post by oldhamexile on Oct 3, 2021 15:23:23 GMT
Impressive in that area. Helped a lot, no doubt, by the Lib Dems standing aside and the Independent being an ex-UKIP regular, unlikely to take many potential votes away from a Green candidate. Actually back when UKIP were still a thing there was quite a large Green-UKIP crossover vote from people who vote on the establishment/anti-establishment scale, rather than the left/right one.
On the same basis that when the NF was significant in the '70s (and when the BNP was significant in the '90s/'00s) there was substantial crossover in some places between them and the Liberals/LibDems. Very, very occasionally there was policy crossover as well, e.g. the LibDems playing the race card in Tower Hamlets during the early '90s. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on Oct 3, 2021 17:24:49 GMT
The Tower Hamlets affair is one of the low points of Paddy Ashdown's leadership, and the report he commissioned (and I printed) was an unfair indictment of the LibDem activists involved.
|
|
