Prediction Competition - August 2021

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 18 by-elections for 18 seats during August.

- 1 by-election on 5 August
- 6 on 12 August
- 7 on 19 August
- 4 on 26 August

1 by-election is for a District Council previously contested in May
5 are for District Councils last contested in 2019
1 is in a County Council previously contested in May
4 are for Unitary Authorities last contested in 2019
1 is in a London Borough last contested in 2018
5 are in Scottish Councils last contested in 2017
1 is in a Welsh Council last contested in 2017

Conservatives defend 7 of the by-election seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor, one of which was sitting as an Independent and 5 a resignation
Independents defend 4 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, all following resignations
Labour defend 2 seats, both following the death of the previous councillor
SNP defend 2 seats, both following resignations

There are full slates of 18 Conservative candidates and 18 Liberal Democrats, 11 Labour, 8 Greens, 5 SNP, 3 Scottish Greens, 2 Libertarians, 2 Independence for Scotland Party, 1 Yorkshire Party, 1 Aspire, 1 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition and 1 Socialist Labour Party along with 5 Independents contesting 5 seats
- a total of 76 candidates for 18 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

[Tony Otim]

It should be either 8 Greens or 5 Greens and 3 Scottish Greens, whichever way you want to record it...

[robbienicoll]

Aug 1, 2021 15:14:00 GMT Tony Otim said:

It should be either 8 Greens or 5 Greens and 3 Scottish Greens, whichever way you want to record it...

Now amended, knew I'd miss something!

[Tony Otim]

West Lothian: SNP 40.9; Lab 28.3; Con 22.4; Grn 4.5; LD 2.6; I4S 1.3 (Comfortable SNP win on transfers)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

WEST LOTHIAN UA; East Livingston & East Calder
SNP – 42% - win after transfers
Labour - 29.2%
Conservative - 22.9%
Green – 3%
Liberal Democrat – 2%
Independence for Scotland - 0.9%

[Toylyyev]

West Lothian UA, East Livingston & East Calder: Conservative 24, Labour 24, Liberal Democrat 3, Green 4, SNP 44, Independence for Scotland 1. SNP win on transfers.

[Robert Waller]

West Lothian UA, East Livingston & East Calder:
Conservative 22, Labour 28, Liberal Democrat 3, Green 3, SNP 42, Independence for Scotland 2. SNP win on transfers.

[yellowperil]

West Lothian, East Livingston & East Calder:
Con 21.5, Lab 30, LD 2.5, SGP 4.5, SNP 40, I4S 1.5
SNP win on transfers

[Deleted]

East Livingston & East Calder (W Lothian): SNP 40 Lab 30 Con 20 LD 5 Grn 4 I4S 1
SNP win on transfers

[Richard Cromwell]

East Livingston & East Calder, West Lothian

SNP	39%	Win On Transfers
LAB	37%
CON	14%
GRN	7%
LD	2%
Independence	1%

[andykernow]

WEST LOTHIAN UA; East Livingston & East Calder
SNP – 45% - I also think the SNP will win after transfers
Conservative - 24%
Labour - 23%
Green – 4%
Liberal Democrat – 3%
Independence for Scotland - 1%

[andrewp]

Wesr Lothian. East Livingston and East Calder

SNP 39, Lab 30, Con 21, LD 5, Green 3, Ind for Scot 2

SNP to win on transfers

[agbutler]

West Lothian, East Livingston and East Calder
SNP: 38(win on transfers)
Lab: 31
Con: 20
Green: 6
LD: 4
I4S: 1

[peterl]

West Lothian, East Livingston and East Calder

SNP: 40 (win on transfers)
Lab: 27
Con: 21
Green: 7
LD: 4
I4S: 1

[iainbhx]

WEST LOTHIAN SUA East Livingston & East Calder

First Preferences
SNP 41 Lab 30 Con 19 Grn 5 LDm 3.5 IFS: 1.5

SNP win after transfers

[rightleaning]

West Lothian: East Livingston & East Calder: SNP 37, Lab 32, C 23, LD 4, Gn 3, I4S 1
SNP win on transfers

[greenhert]

West Lothian UA, East Livingston & East Calder: SNP 39, Labour 31, Conservative 22, LD 4, Green 3, IFS 1. SNP win on transfers.

[robbienicoll]

14 entries to open the month, with European Lefty returning. Greenhert receives 20 faults for posting two hours over the deadline, aside from that all correct.

East Livingston and East Calder: 100% SNP lead on first preferences and gain from Labour after transfers. First preference majorities range from 2% over Labour (Richard Cromwell) to 21% over Conservatives (andykernow).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eJkruT3BFiaIrYTmvOSWqIQ5G8TA9cn_SmVdus0yxNY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! 

[andykernow]

Well, I think we should have just one by-election each week from now on as I seem to to much better with those :-)

[andykernow]

East Suffolk - Orwell - Con Hold

Conservative - 48%
Labour - 30%
Liberal Democrat - 22%

Highland - Inverness West - SNP Gain on Transfers

SNP - 35%
Liberal Democrat - 22%
Conservative - 20%
Independent - 11%
Green - 8%
Libertarian - 3%
Independence for Scotland - 1%

Highland - Wick - Independent Hold on Transfers

Independent - 42%
SNP - 32%
Conservative - 21%
Liberal Democrat - 4%
Scottish Libertarian - 1%

North Ayrshire - Dalry - Independent gain on Transfers

SNP - 34%
Independent - 28%
Conservative - 23%
Liberal Democrat - 8%
Labour - 6%
Socialist Labour - 1%

South Lakeland - Grange - Lib Dem Hold

Liberal Democrats - 52%
Conservative - 28%
Green - 13%
Labour - 8%

Tower Hamlets - Weavers - Labour Hold
Labour - 51%
Aspire - 18%
Conservative - 13%
Green - 10%
Liberal Democrat - 8%
TUSC - 1%