Prediction Competition - August 2021

[yellowperil]

Congratulations (once again) to Toylyyev for another resounding weekly victory. Quite pleased to join him on the podium, but it will probably all come crashing down for me next week. After all, that will include one on my home turf, which will probably go embarassingly wrong.

[Robert Waller]

Yes, no doubt at all about the top two. many congratulations, this was a really hard set.

I thought I was having a truly terrible week (I've ended up proof reading in four or five days the whole of Iain Dale's forthcoming compendium on The Presidents, so had almost no time at all for research) but seem to have ended up in the top half (due mainly to the last result in, Wick, where I may even have pipped the master Toylyyev despite Robbie's bold type? - though my relatively close grouping of the four main contenders was due to uncertainty rather than prescience).


Plenty of opportunity for folk to catch up in the next couple of weeks ...

[Toylyyev]

Aug 13, 2021 12:58:16 GMT Robert Waller said:

Yes, no doubt at all about the top two. many congratulations, this was a really hard set.

I thought I was having a truly terrible week (I've ended up proof reading in four or five days the whole of Iain Dale's forthcoming compendium on The Presidents, so had almost no time at all for research) but seem to have ended up in the top half (due mainly to the last result in, Wick, where I may even have pipped the master Toylyyev despite Robbie's bold type? - though my relatively close grouping of the four main contenders was due to uncertainty rather than prescience_(my underscore)).


Plenty of opportunity for folk to catch up in the next couple of weeks ...

Yes, what did cost me in Caithness was that the first thing the Liberal Democrat candidate had to say in the article linked to in Andrew Teale's previews was that she was from a military family. Now i think to know enough to understand why one would do that, but that didn't prevent it from beating me and playing a part in losing at least 8.2 points on the first numbers i had written down. (I hadn't done the transfers at that stage) Though moving a large chunck to the Conservative candidate did limit the damage.

[andykernow]

Here are mine for 19th August

Aberdeen - Mid Formantine - CON gain from SNP on transfers

Conservative - 43%
SNP - 38%
Lib Dem - 13%
Green - 6%

Ashford - Downs - Green Gain from Con

Green - 42%
Conservative - 39%
Lib Dem - 19%

Dover - Sandwich - Con Hold

Conservative - 65%
Lib Dem - 35%

East Riding - East Wold - Con Hold

Conservative - 38%
Green - 22%
Yorkshire - 19%
Lib Dem - 15%
Labour - 6%

Ribble - Littlemore - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem 42%
Conservative - 28%
Labour - 23%
Green - 7%

Ribble - Primrose - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 45%
Conservative - 24%
Labour - 22%
Green - 9%

Rutland - Lib Dem gain from Con

Lib Dem - 52%
Conservative - 48%

[peterl]

Aberdeenshire - Mid Formantine - CON gain from SNP on transfers

Conservative - 39%
SNP - 37%
Lib Dem - 17%
Green - 7%

Ashford - Downs - Green Gain from Con

Green - 43%
Conservative - 36%
Lib Dem - 21%

Dover - Sandwich - Con Hold

Conservative - 61%
Lib Dem - 39%

East Riding - East Wold - Con Hold

Conservative - 36%
Green - 27%
Yorkshire - 21%
Lib Dem - 12%
Labour - 4%

Ribble Valley - Littlemore - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem 44%
Conservative - 25%
Labour - 21%
Green - 10%

Ribble Valley - Primrose - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 46%
Conservative - 22%
Labour - 20%
Green - 12%

Rutland - Lib Dem gain from Con

Lib Dem - 55%
Conservative - 45%

[Richard Cromwell]

Mid Formantine, Aberdeenshire

SNP	40%
CON	39%	Win On Transfers
LD	15%
GRN	6%

Downs, Ashford

GRN	38%
CON	32%
LD	30%

Sandwich, Dover

CON	55%
LD	45%

East Wold, East Riding

Yorkshire	31%
CON	30%
GRN	29%
LD	6%
LAB	4%

Littlemore, Ribble Valley

LD	48%
LAB	21%
CON	16%
GRN	15%

Primrose, Ribble Valley

LD	40%
GRN	22%
LAB	20%
CON	18%

Oakham South, Rutland

CON	51%
LD	49%

[Tony Otim]

Aberdeenshire: Con 46.6; SNP 32.6; LD 14.8; Grn 6.0 (Con win)
Ashford: Con 45.1; Grn 40.5; LD 14.4
Dover: Con 60.3; LD 39.7
East Riding: Con 42.4; Grn 25.3; LD 13.2; YP 10.6; Lab 8.5
Ribble Valley, Littlemoor: LD 52.7; Con23.9; Lab 14.1; Grn 9.3
Ribble Valley, Primrose: LD 53.9; Lab 20.9; Con 18.6; Grn 6.6
Rutland: LD 55.1; Con 44.9

[greenhert]

Aberdeenshire UA, Mid Formartine (1st preferences): Conservative 50.5, SNP 34, Liberal Democrats 10.5, Green 5. Conservative gain from SNP.
Ashford DC, Downs North: Green 48, Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 10. Green gain from Conservative.
Dover BC, Sandwich: Conservative 57, Liberal Democrats 43.
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, Conservative 48, Green 24, Liberal Democrats 11, Yorkshire Party 9, Labour 8.
Ribble Valley DC, Littlemoor: Liberal Democrats 55, Conservative 31, Labour 9, Green 5.
Ribble Valley DC, Primrose: Liberal Democrats 52, Conservative 22, Labour 21, Green 7.
Rutland UA, Oakham South: Conservative 51, Liberal Democrats 49.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Mid Formartine
Conservative – 44%
SNP – 39%
Liberal Democrat – 11%
Green - 6%
Conservative win after transfers

ASHFORD DC; Downs North
Green – 43.1%
Conservative – 42.9%
Liberal Democrat - 14%

DOVER DC; Sandwich
Conservative – 57%
Liberal Democrat – 43%

EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE UA; East Wolds & Coastal
Conservative – 46.6%
Green – 31%
Labour – 9.8%
Liberal Democrat – 6.9%
Yorkshire Party - 5.7%

RIBBLE VALLEY DC; Littlemoor
Liberal Democrats – 61%
Conservative – 21%
Labour - 13.1%
Green – 4.9%

RIBBLE VALLEY DC; Primrose
Liberal Democrat – 62%
Conservative – 15.3%
Labour – 15%
Green – 7.7%

RUTLAND UA; Oakham South
Conservative - 59%
Liberal Democrat – 41%

[andrewp]

Aberdeenshire, Mid Formantine. Con 42, SNP 31: LD 22, Green 5. Con win
Ashford. Downs North. Green 46, Con 42, LD 12
Dover, Sandwich. Con 55, LD 45
East Riding, Wolds and Coastal. Con 46, LD 23, Green 12, York’s 10, Lab 9
Ribble Valley. Littlemoor. LD 53, Con 29, Lab 13: Green 5
Ribble Valley, Primrose. Ld 49. Lab 23, Con 23, Green 5
Rutland, Oakham South. LD 51, Con 49

[Deleted]

Mid Formantine (Aberdeenshire): Con 45 SNP 35 LD 18 Grn 2 Con GAIN
Downs North (Ashford): Con 45 Grn 40 LD 15
Sandwich (Dover): Con 61 LD 39
Wolds & Coastal (E. Riding of Yorks): Con 43 Grn 27 LD 15 Lab 10 YP 5
Littlemoor (Ribble Valley): LD 53 Con 25 Lab 12 Grn 10
Primrose (Ribble Valley): LD 54 Lab 20 Con 16 Grn 10
Oakham South (Rutland): LD 52 Con 48

[yellowperil]

Aberdeenshire, Mid Formantine: Con 41, LD 12, SGP 8, SNP 39 . Con to win on transfers
Ashford, Downs North: Con 40, LD 11, GP 49.
Dover, Sandwich: Con 60, LD 40.
Yorks East Riding, East Wolds & Coastal:  Con 40, Lab 3, LD 18, GP 20, YP 19.
Ribble Valley, Littlemoor: Con 27, Lab 12, LD 51, GP 10.
Ribble Valley, Primrose: Con 22, Lab 18, LD 50, GP 10.
Rutland, Oakham South: Con 44, LD 56

[yellowperil]

Aug 18, 2021 22:18:56 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Mid Formantine (Aberdeenshire): Con 45 SNP 35 LD 18 Grn 2 Con GAIN
Downs North (Ashford): Con 45 Grn 40 LD 15
Sandwich (Dover): Con 61 LD 39
Wolds & Coastal (E. Riding of Yorks): Con 43 Grn 27 LD 15 Lab 10 YP 5
Littlemoor (Ribble Valley): LD 53 Con 25 Lab 12 Grn 10
Primrose (Ribble Valley): LD 52 Lab 17 Con 13 10 Grn 8
Oakham South (Rutland): LD 52 Con 48

Something wrong with Primrose?

[Deleted]

Aug 18, 2021 22:28:40 GMT yellowperil said:

Aug 18, 2021 22:18:56 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Mid Formantine (Aberdeenshire): Con 45 SNP 35 LD 18 Grn 2 Con GAIN
Downs North (Ashford): Con 45 Grn 40 LD 15
Sandwich (Dover): Con 61 LD 39
Wolds & Coastal (E. Riding of Yorks): Con 43 Grn 27 LD 15 Lab 10 YP 5
Littlemoor (Ribble Valley): LD 53 Con 25 Lab 12 Grn 10
Primrose (Ribble Valley): LD 52 Lab 17 Con 13 10 Grn 8
Oakham South (Rutland): LD 52 Con 48

Something wrong with Primrose?

Yes, thank you

[Toylyyev]

Aberdeenshire UA, Mid Formartine: Conservative win on transfers.
Conservative 47, Liberal Democrat 9.5, Green 4.5, SNP 39.

Ashford DC, Downs North:
Conservative 40, Liberal Democrat 10, Green 50.

Dover DC, Sandwich:
Conservative 58, Liberal Democrat 42.

East Riding of Yorkshire UA, East Wolds & Coastal:
Conservative 38, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 6, Green 10, Yorkshire Party 41.

Ribble Valley DC, Littlemoor:
Conservative 24.5, Labour 11.5, Liberal Democrat 57, Green 7.
Primrose:
Conservative 15, Labour 14, Liberal Democrat 52, Green 19.

Rutland UA, Oakham South:
Conservative 31.5, Liberal Democrat 68.5.


Timed in remembrance of the exclusive rumor for the July 2019 Bridlington North by-election.

[Robert Waller]

Mid Formantine (Aberdeenshire): Con 45 SNP 39 LD 11 Grn 5 -- Con win after transfers
Downs North (Ashford): Con 45 Grn 40 LD 15
Sandwich (Dover): Con 62 LD 38
Wolds & Coastal (E. Riding of Yorks): Con 48 Grn 26 LD 14 Lab 6 YP 6
Littlemoor (Ribble Valley): LD 55 Con 30 Lab 10 Grn 5
Primrose (Ribble Valley): LD 55 Lab 16 Con 24 Grn 5
Oakham South (Rutland): LD 58 Con 42

[rightleaning]

Aberdeenshire, Mid Formantine. C 44, SNP 30, LD 22, Gn 4. C win
Ashford. Downs North. Gn 46, C 44, LD 10
Dover, Sandwich. C 58, LD 42
East Riding, Wolds and Coastal. C 45, LD 27, Gn 12, York’s 10, Lab 6
Ribble Valley. Littlemoor. LD 55, C 28, Lab 14, Gn 3
Ribble Valley, Primrose. LD 52, C 26, Lab 18, Gn 4
Rutland, Oakham South. LD 54, C 46

[iainbhx]

Aberdeenshire SUA, Mid Formantine: Con 41, SNP 32: LDm 22, Grn 5 - Con win after transfers
Ashford DC, Downs North: Con 46 Grn 44, LDm 10
Dover DC, Sandwich: Con 57, LDm 43
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, East Wolds and Coastal: Con 46, LDm 24, Lab 13 , Grn 9 ,  York  8
Ribble Valley DC, Littlemoor: LDm 43, Con 34, Lab 16: Grn 7
Ribble Valley DC, Primrose: LDm 47, Con 26, Lab 22, Grn 5
Rutland UA, Oakham South: LDm 53, Con 47

[robbienicoll]

13 entries this week, with agbutler missing. All on time, although greenhert picks up 2 faults for going over in Primrose.

Mid Formartine, Aberdeenshire: 100% Conservative gain from the SNP, 12 after transfers and greenhert on first preferences. Richard Cromwell has SNP ahead on first preferences.
Downs North, Ashford: 9 Green gain from Conservative, with European Lefty, iainbhx, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold.
Sandwich, Dover: 100% Conservative hold, majorities ranging from 10% (andrewp and Richard Cromwell) to 30% (andykernow).
East Wolds and Coastal, East Riding of Yorkshire: 11 Conservative hold, with Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Yorkshire Party gain.
Littlemoor, Ribble Valley: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 9% (iainbhx) to 40% (alien8ted).
Primrose, Ribble Valley: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 18% (Richard Cromwell) to 46.7% (alien8ted).
Oakham South, Rutland: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with alien8ted, greenhert and Richard Cromwell Conservative hold.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zm52h2nh23K6UYtVcJIS2qZyz2G7goIyzVwpTzinNMM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!
 

[yellowperil]

Robbie seems to have decided to leave the Rutland calculation to later, as well as obviously the Scottish one. That is nice of him, as it leaves me briefly overnight with my nose just in front of Toylyyev, but given that the Rutland calculations are pretty easy ( even I shouldn't make a mistake with a simple two-hander) it is obvious the master will be well back in front after absolutely thrashing everybody at Rutland. And Scotland might well be where it really all comes unstuckfor me....