Prediction Competition - August 2021

[robbienicoll]

Aug 20, 2021 1:19:12 GMT yellowperil said:

Robbie seems to have decided to leave the Rutland calculation to later, as well as obviously the Scottish one. That is nice of him, as it leaves me briefly overnight with my nose just in front of Toylyyev, but given that the Rutland calculations are pretty easy ( even I shouldn't make a mistake with a simple two-hander) it is obvious the master will be well back in front after absolutely thrashing everybody at Rutland. And Scotland might well be where it really all comes unstuckfor me....

Should've been more patient with Rutland, did wonder how long it would take them to count a two-candidate contest but looks like they declared a few minutes after I packed it in. Your calculations were correct for that one, although there actually wasn't a huge amount in it in Aberdeenshire. Congratulations to andrewp and iainbhx for a very close first and second on the week and Right Leaning for just pipping greenhert to third. Leaves both Toylyyev and yellowperil ahead of the competition for the month, though next week's look a tricky bunch, so all to play for!

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Aug 20, 2021 12:06:22 GMT robbienicoll said:

Aug 20, 2021 1:19:12 GMT yellowperil said:

Robbie seems to have decided to leave the Rutland calculation to later, as well as obviously the Scottish one. That is nice of him, as it leaves me briefly overnight with my nose just in front of Toylyyev, but given that the Rutland calculations are pretty easy ( even I shouldn't make a mistake with a simple two-hander) it is obvious the master will be well back in front after absolutely thrashing everybody at Rutland. And Scotland might well be where it really all comes unstuckfor me....

Should've been more patient with Rutland, did wonder how long it would take them to count a two-candidate contest but looks like they declared a few minutes after I packed it in. Your calculations were correct for that one, although there actually wasn't a huge amount in it in Aberdeenshire. Congratulations to andrewp and iainbhx for a very close first and second on the week and Right Leaning for just pipping greenhert to third. Leaves both Toylyyev and yellowperil ahead of the competition for the month, though next week's look a tricky bunch, so all to play for!

For Some Maybe

[greenhert]

If only I had not predicted a Conservative hold in Oakham South....I assumed the high Liberal Democrat vote in 2019 was a personal vote for their sole candidate since Oakham is not natural Liberal Democrat territory.

[Toylyyev]

Aug 20, 2021 15:01:01 GMT greenhert said:

If only I had not predicted a Conservative hold in Oakham South....I assumed the high Liberal Democrat vote in 2019 was a personal vote for their sole candidate since Oakham is not natural Liberal Democrat territory.

I plead guilty of straying on occasion on this self-confessed pathetic but avuncular blog.. and reaping the benefits of the thereby acquired knowledge on the ins and outs of igloos.

www.greaterfool.ca/2021/08/15/the-vote/

Another appetizer

“I was a little bored this morning,” writes George, “so I Googled ‘canada money supply’. Here is what showed up. This does not look good.”


No, George, it does not.

Taken from www.greaterfool.ca/2021/08/18/bubble-boy/

[Toylyyev]

Aug 20, 2021 12:06:22 GMT robbienicoll said:

Aug 20, 2021 1:19:12 GMT yellowperil said:

Robbie seems to have decided to leave the Rutland calculation to later, as well as obviously the Scottish one. That is nice of him, as it leaves me briefly overnight with my nose just in front of Toylyyev, but given that the Rutland calculations are pretty easy ( even I shouldn't make a mistake with a simple two-hander) it is obvious the master will be well back in front after absolutely thrashing everybody at Rutland. And Scotland might well be where it really all comes unstuckfor me....

Should've been more patient with Rutland, did wonder how long it would take them to count a two-candidate contest but looks like they declared a few minutes after I packed it in. Your calculations were correct for that one, although there actually wasn't a huge amount in it in Aberdeenshire. Congratulations to andrewp and iainbhx for a very close first and second on the week and Right Leaning for just pipping greenhert to third. Leaves both Toylyyev and yellowperil ahead of the competition for the month, though next week's look a tricky bunch_(my underscore), so all to play for!

I seem to have started off at the right end, the three hipsters in Graig are quite entertaining.

[andykernow]

As I am running around like a blue assed fly this week i'll go early with these

Cumbria - Corby - Con Hold

Conservative - 64%
Lib Dem - 36%

Medway - Princes Park - Con Hold

Conservative - 54%
Labour - 21%
Lib Dem - 15%
Independent - 8%
Green - 2%

Medway- Strood - Labour Gain from Con

Labour - 44%
Conservative - 35%
Green - 10%
Lib Dem - 8%
Independent - 3%

Newport - Graig - Labour Gain from Con

Labour - 44.3%
Conservative - 43.7%
Lib Dem - 12%

[peterl]

Cumbria - Corby - Con Gain from Ind

Conservative - 59%
Lib Dem - 41%

Medway - Princes Park - Con Hold

Conservative - 37%
Labour - 30%
Lib Dem - 18%
Independent - 10%
Green - 5%

Medway- Strood - Labour Gain from Con

Labour - 41%
Conservative - 33%
Green - 12%
Lib Dem - 9%
Independent - 5%

Newport - Graig - Lab Gain from Con

Labour - 42%
Conservative - 40%
Lib Dem - 18%

[Richard Cromwell]

Corby, Cumbria

CON	54%
LD	46%

Princes Park, Medway

CON	32%
LAB	23%
LD	21%
IND	20%
GRN	4%

Strood, Medway

LAB	41%
CON	32%
GRN	21%
LD	5%
IND	1%

Graig, Newport

LAB	40%
CON	34%
LD	26%

[Tony Otim]

Cumbria: Con 67.2; LD 32.8
Medway Princes Park: Con 48.6; Lab 19.5; Durcan 16.6; LD 8.8; Grn 6.5
Medway Strood North: Con 36.2; Lab 28.5; Spalding 19.2; Grn 9.4; LD 6.7
Newport: Con 48.5; Lab 40.3; LD 11.2

[Toylyyev]

Cumbria CC, Corby & Hayton:
Conservative 55, Liberal Democrat 45.

Medway UA, Princes Park:
Conservative 49, Labour 23, Liberal Democrat 16, Green 4, Independent 8.
Strood North:
Conservative 26, Labour 25, Liberal Democrat 3, Green 27, Independent 19.

Newport UA, Graig:
Conservative 48.5, Labour 44.5, Liberal Democrat 7.

[greenhert]

Cumbria CC, Corby & Hayton: Conservative 57, Liberal Democrats 43. Conservative gain from Independent.
Medway UA, Princes Park: Conservative 52, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 11, Independent (Durcan) 7, Green 5.
Medway UA, Strood North: Green 35, Conservative 27, Labour 21, Independent (Spalding) 14, Liberal Democrats 3. Green gain from Conservative.
Newport UA, Graig: Conservative 48, Labour 42, Liberal Democrats 10.

[andrewp]

Cumbria, Corby and Hayton Con 63, LD 37
Medway, Princes Park. Con 50, Lab 26, Ind 12, LD 7, Green 5
Medway, Strood North Con 36, Lab 30, Green 19, Ind 10. LD 5
Newport, Graig, Con 46, Lab 43, LD 11

[yellowperil]

Cumbria, Corby & Hayton: Con 49, LD 51.
Medway, Princes Park: Con 45,Lab 25, LD 13, GP 7, Ind 10.
Medway, Strood North: Con 40, Lab 36, LD 6, GP 14, Ind 4.
Newport, Graig: Con 41, Lab 39, LD 20.

[Robert Waller]

Cumbria, Corby and Hayton Con 60, LD 40

Medway, Princes Park. Con 50, Lab 25, Ind 10, LD 10, Green 5

Medway, Strood North Con 35, Lab 25, Green 25, Ind 10, LD 5

Newport, Graig, Con 47, Lab 43, LD 10

[Deleted]

Corby & Hayton (Cumbria): Con 63 LD 37
Princes Park (Medway): Con 50 Lab 25 Ind 13 LD 7 Grn 5
Strood N (Medway): Con 42 Lab 33 Ind 13 LD 7 Grn 5
Graig (Newport): Con 46 Lab 44 LD 10

[carlton43]

Aug 25, 2021 20:33:54 GMT greenhert said:

Cumbria CC, Corby & Hayton: Conservative 57, Liberal Democrats 43. Conservative gain from Independent.
Medway UA, Princes Park: Conservative 52, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 11, Independent (Durcan) 7, Green 5.
Medway UA, Strood North: Green 35, Conservative 27, Labour 21, Independent (Spalding) 14, Liberal Democrats 3. Green gain from Conservative.
Newport UA, Graig: Conservative 48, Labour 42, Liberal Democrats 10.

Strood must have changed a lot since I knew it then!

[rightleaning]

Corby & Hayton (Cumbria): C 61 LD 39
Princes Park (Medway): C 50 Lab 23 Ind 14 LD 8 Gn 5
Strood N (Medway): C 43 Lab 31 Ind 14 LD 7 Gn 5
Graig (Newport): C 44 Lab 42 LD 14

[iainbhx]

Cumbria CC, Corby & Hayton: LDm 52 Con 48
Medway UA, Princes Park: Con 46, Lab 29, Ind 12, LDm 7, Grn 6
Medway UA, Strood N: Con 43, Lab 36, Ind 8.5, Grn 7.5, LDm 5
Newport WUA, Graig : Lab 45, Con 44, LDm 11

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Nearly forgot, so probably even more inaccurate than ususal

CUMBRIA CC; Corby & Hayton
Conservative – 66%
Liberal Democrat – 34%

MEDWAY UA; Princes Park
Conservative - 58%
Labour – 28.8%
Liberal Democrat – 4.8%
Green – 4.4%
Independent – 4%

MEDWAY UA; Strood North
Conservative – 47%
Labour – 39%
Independent – 5%
Green – 4.9%
Liberal Democrat – 4.1%

NEWPORT UA; Graig
Conservative – 47%
Labour – 41%
Liberal Democrats – 12%

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to close the month, all on time and correct.

Corby and Hayton, Cumbria: 11 Conservative gain from Independent, with iainbhx and yellowperil Liberal Democrat gain.
Princes Park, Medway: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (peterl) to 33% (andykernow).
Strood North, Medway: 8 Conservative hold, with andykernow, peterl and Richard Cromwell Labour gain, and greenhert and Toylyyev Green gain.
Graig, Newport: 9 Conservative hold, with andykernow, iainbhx, peterl and Richard Cromwell Labour gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1URqrMvOm6t7w49rrF5exZGF77DLgGcYzCsBs9tTXsxU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!