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Post by yellowperil on Jul 8, 2021 22:43:04 GMT
Looks like the voters in Feniton agreed with Susie Bond! Well, I thought they might . The Labour vote was more than might have beeb expected from her comments, though- knock on effecy of activity in St Michaels? |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Jul 8, 2021 22:43:47 GMT
Looks like the voters in Feniton agreed with Susie Bond! Well, I thought they might . The Labour vote was more than might have beeb expected from her comments, though- knock on effecy of activity in St Michaels? Yes I thought they would too. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 8, 2021 22:44:42 GMT
And I’m regretting not going the full hog for Jake Bonetta in Honiton. I thought he might win but chickened out,
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 8, 2021 23:01:59 GMT
And I’m regretting not going the full hog for Jake Bonetta in Honiton. I thought he might win but chickened out, As I said above, this applies even more to me. But a brilliant call from Toylyyev, which justly puts hm top of the running scores for the week and month. More surprises to come, though, tonight, I guess ... |
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Post by agbutler on Jul 8, 2021 23:16:32 GMT
Well this will be a high scoring week
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 8, 2021 23:17:16 GMT
Is it just Aldeburgh to come though or are they counting Ardingly as well - there seemed to be some doubt earlier?
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 8, 2021 23:18:55 GMT
Well this will be a high scoring week it already is- do you mean there's worse to come? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 8, 2021 23:20:57 GMT
And I’m regretting not going the full hog for Jake Bonetta in Honiton. I thought he might win but chickened out, As I said above, this applies even more to me. But a brilliant call from Toylyyev, which justly puts hm top of the running scores for the week and month. More surprises to come, though, tonight, I guess ... communist win in A&L? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 9, 2021 9:30:14 GMT
Final results now calculated in Robbie's link above.
Many congratulations to Toylyyev for the week and the month so far.
He made some very brave and bold calls in a generally very surprising and difficult week.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 9, 2021 9:40:15 GMT
The scores for East Suffolk look wrong to me, though I could just not be understanding the score right.
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 9, 2021 10:27:17 GMT
The scores for East Suffolk look wrong to me, though I could just not be understanding the score right. Top scores had the Greens ahead, so 5 faults for anyone with Conservatives ahead, 2.5 faults per incorrect seat winner. So yourself, Toylyyev and yellowperil, whilst getting the right seat winners, had the incorrect party leading so receive 5 faults. Greenhert and Richard Cromwell receive 2.5 for predicting the Greens winning the second seat, and everyone else who had the Conservatives ahead and winning both receive 7.5 for incorrect party ahead and incorrect seat prediction. Precedent for the scoring is from the June 2019 competition. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 9, 2021 10:55:38 GMT
The scores for East Suffolk look wrong to me, though I could just not be understanding the score right. Top scores had the Greens ahead, so 5 faults for anyone with Conservatives ahead, 2.5 faults per incorrect seat winner. So yourself, Toylyyev and yellowperil, whilst getting the right seat winners, had the incorrect party leading so receive 5 faults. Greenhert and Richard Cromwell receive 2.5 for predicting the Greens winning the second seat, and everyone else who had the Conservatives ahead and winning both receive 7.5 for incorrect party ahead and incorrect seat prediction. Precedent for the scoring is from the June 2019 cohad mpetition. Wow, that's complex. I accept the reasoning and the precedent, but it does seem to me to overvalue the positioning on the results list when the votes are so tight. Of course" real life" is like that too- you can be elected or not elected by the cast of a single vote, or indeed the drawing of a straw. But I thought I'd done well to work out the votes were going to be so close that a split vote was quite likely, and was quite chuffed that I'd got that right, but now realise I lose out more by not guessing which elected party actually topped the poll. Thank God we were not asked to say which of the 2 party candidates was elected and which failed to get elected! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 9, 2021 12:47:18 GMT
The scores for East Suffolk look wrong to me, though I could just not be understanding the score right. Top scores had the Greens ahead, so 5 faults for anyone with Conservatives ahead, 2.5 faults per incorrect seat winner. So yourself, Toylyyev and yellowperil, whilst getting the right seat winners, had the incorrect party leading so receive 5 faults. Greenhert and Richard Cromwell receive 2.5 for predicting the Greens winning the second seat, and everyone else who had the Conservatives ahead and winning both receive 7.5 for incorrect party ahead and incorrect seat prediction. Precedent for the scoring is from the June 2019 competition. Thanks That ward is the one bright spot on a horrendous night for me predictionwise. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 9, 2021 13:32:46 GMT
One of those rare occasions where i would have done better following my heart. I felt both Mid-Sussex and East Suffolk had an outside chances of a Green gain, but then decided that was being too optimistic.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 9, 2021 14:09:17 GMT
One of those rare occasions where i would have done better following my heart. I felt both Mid-Sussex and East Suffolk had an outside chances of a Green gain, but then decided that was being too optimistic. I have said in the past, all too often, that whatever strengths the Green Party had, they were seemingly incapable of turning up the effort for local by elections, and always seemed to underperform against expectations in that situation. I am sure you would be able to come up with chapter and verse to show me to be sometimes wrong in that assertion, but in the last while it has been clear that anyway things have moved on apace, and the Green Party have now started to outdo the LibDems, who had always been the masters, in these particular skills. Not least because the Lib Dems are in danger of losing them, as this week's set exemplifies. I'm afraid my party seems to be filling up with people who expect results to be offered to them on a plate without any effort, and that may reflect the new intake of members in the last few years. Of course there are still some people around in the party who have what it takes, but increasingly I see such people in the Greens, among Independents and even, I dare whisper it, within the two big parties. I will have to reassess my prediction formulae in the light of this new reality. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jul 9, 2021 15:39:12 GMT
One of those rare occasions where i would have done better following my heart. I felt both Mid-Sussex and East Suffolk had an outside chances of a Green gain, but then decided that was being too optimistic. I have said in the past, all too often, that whatever strengths the Green Party had, they were seemingly incapable of turning up the effort for local by elections, and always seemed to underperform against expectations in that situation. I am sure you would be able to come up with chapter and verse to show me to be sometimes wrong in that assertion, but in the last while it has been clear that anyway things have moved on apace, and the Green Party have now started to outdo the LibDems, who had always been the masters, in these particular skills. Not least because the Lib Dems are in danger of losing them, as this week's set exemplifies. I'm afraid my party seems to be filling up with people who expect results to be offered to them on a plate without any effort, and that may reflect the new intake of members in the last few years. Of course there are still some people around in the party who have what it takes, but increasingly I see such people in the Greens, among Independents and even, I dare whisper it, within the two big parties. I will have to reassess my prediction formulae in the light of this new reality. You make some very good points. I think one of the issues is that the Green party is in *some* ways are approaching matching the Lib Dems in local election performance generally - in by-elections and in the May elections. *Where they stood* (which is an important qualifier) the BBC estimate this May they got 11% of the vote against the Lib Dems' Projected National Share (PNS) of 17%. Now these are not two equivalent figures - as there are many seats where the Greens don't stand and they stand in their better seats. And it may be slightly a perception effect - they stand where they are strong - even for by-elections. So it may be that your prediction formulae do need a change in seats they are standing in - perhaps also where they have some record of success - a good place if not winning and not necessarily in that ward but neighbouring ones or in a related county seat. It has also to be said that glancing through the May local elections the Greens were notching up some stonking votes in areas I was really surprised about. And there does seem to be this effect of Greens doing well in the home county shires over house-building etc. And voters picking one of Greens, Labour, Lib Dems or Indies in different wards and different areas - whereas in the past it might have been only the Lib Dems they considered. There may be two other effects other but related to those you cite. It may well be that in many areas that long-standing lib dems lost between 2011-2017 and they then become inactive and their knowledge and craft left with them and it may take some time for that to be picked up again. And of course if there are no other Lib Dem councillors in a local authority area or few there's probably less manpower and less money. In contrast where that hasn't been lost and good long-standing activists have continued to run things - Eastleigh and Portsmouth are two particular examples but no doubt others - they have continued to do exceptionally well at a local level even if they have struggled at a parliamentary level. In addition, Liberals who knew real struggles in the 70s and "not always" winning in an area are probably not that numerous any more and may have bowed out in 2010 if they were still where around then. I knew one ward - and this was some 30 years ago - where the Lib Dems absolutely trounced the opposition and the key activist and organiser died and independents came in and the Lib Dems have struggled since then and the indies now always win. So the moral of the story as an activist (of any party) is pass on your knowledge and build your team of successors. But if one key person goes things can crumble. And "old stager" Liberals could probably handle a bit of adversity and failure as that's what they started with. Also quite a lot of Liberals of that era were inspired by Grimond and his "march towards gunfire." and I am not sure the current Lib Dem leadership is inspiring the next generation of activists in the same way. Whereas Greens viz XR etc. are inspired and can take a bit of electoral failure - in the same way Liberals of the 60s and 70s were inspired by Grimond and were enthusiastic if inexperienced and unknowledgeable - energetic youthful (at whatever age!) enthusiasm trumps experience without enthusiasm. Secondly there are areas where people thought if it's not the Tories it's the Lib Dems or if it's not Labour it's the Lib Dems. This has been lost in that people are now thinking well the Lib Dems are not that popular nationally, didn't like them in coalition, haven't heard much from them locally recently - Greens, Labour or indies are just a good a choice. Obviously related to all this is that the Lib Dems' PNS at local elections was often in the mid to high 20%s up to 2010 - often matching or just a few points lower than Labour and Tories. Since 2011 they have been the mid to high teens. By definition if they are polling lower they will get fewer votes and win fewer seats - exaggerated by FPTP. And it may be that the individual prowess of Lib Dems was actually somewhat exaggerated - they were just doing well nationally (in local elections!) And people in other parties are not stupid they have seen that Lib Dem techniques work and so they think if that works we will do it as well. So after a few years of losing to the Lib Dems in Portsmouth in the early 2000s the Tories copied the Lib Dems putting out four tabloid newspapers over four weeks, similar styles of leaflets and letters etc. and started doing (a bit) better. There was obv. a major targeting of the Lib Dems by the Tories in 2015 whereas before mostly the Lib Dems it seems at a national HQ campaign level had been a small flea in the Tory v Labour battle. And that was tough for the Lib Dems at a local election level as well. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 9, 2021 16:45:35 GMT
I have said in the past, all too often, that whatever strengths the Green Party had, they were seemingly incapable of turning up the effort for local by elections, and always seemed to underperform against expectations in that situation. I am sure you would be able to come up with chapter and verse to show me to be sometimes wrong in that assertion, but in the last while it has been clear that anyway things have moved on apace, and the Green Party have now started to outdo the LibDems, who had always been the masters, in these particular skills. Not least because the Lib Dems are in danger of losing them, as this week's set exemplifies. I'm afraid my party seems to be filling up with people who expect results to be offered to them on a plate without any effort, and that may reflect the new intake of members in the last few years. Of course there are still some people around in the party who have what it takes, but increasingly I see such people in the Greens, among Independents and even, I dare whisper it, within the two big parties. I will have to reassess my prediction formulae in the light of this new reality. You make some very good points. I think one of the issues is that the Green party is in *some* ways are approaching matching the Lib Dems in local election performance generally - in by-elections and in the May elections. *Where they stood* (which is an important qualifier) the BBC estimate this May they got 11% of the vote against the Lib Dems' Projected National Share (PNS) of 17%. Now these are not two equivalent figures - as there are many seats where the Greens don't stand and they stand in their better seats. And it may be slightly a perception effect - they stand where they are strong - even for by-elections. So it may be that your prediction formulae do need a change in seats they are standing in - perhaps also where they have some record of success - a good place if not winning and not necessarily in that ward but neighbouring ones or in a related county seat. It has also to be said that glancing through the May local elections the Greens were notching up some stonking votes in areas I was really surprised about. And there does seem to be this effect of Greens doing well in the home county shires over house-building etc. And voters picking one of Greens, Labour, Lib Dems or Indies in different wards and different areas - whereas in the past it might have been only the Lib Dems they considered. There may be two other effects other but related to those you cite. It may well be that in many areas that long-standing lib dems lost between 2011-2017 and they then become inactive and their knowledge and craft left with them and it may take some time for that to be picked up again. And of course if there are no other Lib Dem councillors in a local authority area or few there's probably less manpower and less money. In contrast where that hasn't been lost and good long-standing activists have continued to run things - Eastleigh and Portsmouth are two particular examples but no doubt others - they have continued to do exceptionally well at a local level even if they have struggled at a parliamentary level. In addition, Liberals who knew real struggles in the 70s and "not always" winning in an area are probably not that numerous any more and may have bowed out in 2010 if they were still where around then. I knew one ward - and this was some 30 years ago - where the Lib Dems absolutely trounced the opposition and the key activist and organiser died and independents came in and the Lib Dems have struggled since then and the indies now always win. So the moral of the story as an activist (of any party) is pass on your knowledge and build your team of successors. But if one key person goes things can crumble. And "old stager" Liberals could probably handle a bit of adversity and failure as that's what they started with. Also quite a lot of Liberals of that era were inspired by Grimond and his "march towards gunfire." and I am not sure the current Lib Dem leadership is inspiring the next generation of activists in the same way. Whereas Greens viz XR etc. are inspired and can take a bit of electoral failure - in the same way Liberals of the 60s and 70s were inspired by Grimond and were enthusiastic if inexperienced and unknowledgeable - energetic youthful (at whatever age!) enthusiasm trumps experience without enthusiasm. Secondly there are areas where people thought if it's not the Tories it's the Lib Dems or if it's not Labour it's the Lib Dems. This has been lost in that people are now thinking well the Lib Dems are not that popular nationally, didn't like them in coalition, haven't heard much from them locally recently - Greens, Labour or indies are just a good a choice. Obviously related to all this is that the Lib Dems' PNS at local elections was often in the mid to high 20%s up to 2010 - often matching or just a few points lower than Labour and Tories. Since 2011 they have been the mid to high teens. By definition if they are polling lower they will get fewer votes and win fewer seats - exaggerated by FPTP. And it may be that the individual prowess of Lib Dems was actually somewhat exaggerated - they were just doing well nationally (in local elections!) And people in other parties are not stupid they have seen that Lib Dem techniques work and so they think if that works we will do it as well. So after a few years of losing to the Lib Dems in Portsmouth in the early 2000s the Tories copied the Lib Dems putting out four tabloid newspapers over four weeks, similar styles of leaflets and letters etc. and started doing (a bit) better. There was obv. a major targeting of the Lib Dems by the Tories in 2015 whereas before mostly the Lib Dems it seems at a national HQ campaign level had been a small flea in the Tory v Labour battle. And that was tough for the Lib Dems at a local election level as well. Again some excellent points. It may be a bit simplistic, though, to equate the effective Libs/LibDems of the past with the Grimondites. I personally am of an era to have possibly been a Grimondite(and Jo was indeed an influence) for example, but my entry to the Lib Dems came via the Labour Party and then SDP, so its never quite that simple. I do take the point about passing the message on to future generations, and I probably plead guilty to a failure in that regard when I fell out with some of the group on the borough council and spent two years sitting as an independent after losing the leadership- somewhat justified when some of Them went over to the Tories! I spent a lot of time trying to encourage and train up more young people but the really good ones always seemed to drift away after a few years,often because they moved to somewhere else, we always came back to the Old Codgers.Now my local party has actually more members than it had in my day, but no councillor representation at any level, when we went from my day to running the council, admittedly as the senior partners in a coalition. And the absolutely rock solid areas for us are now firmly in the hands of the Greens. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 9, 2021 16:48:09 GMT
Appropriately, I read these two posts one after the other, albeit on different threads: I'm afraid my party seems to be filling up with people who expect results to be offered to them on a plate without any effort, and that may reflect the new intake of members in the last few years. To my surprise I have received a Lib Dem leaflet. It is a curious beast. One side is a rant about the Spatial Plan and a bit about sixth-formers parking outside... erm... the sixth-form. The other side is an angry denunciation of the Tories and Labour and says it is ridiculous that the Lib Dems aren't in power. Crossing over with yet another thread, the party seems to have lost the Frank Pikes and has been filling up with Warden Hodgeses. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 9, 2021 16:54:10 GMT
Appropriately, I read these two posts one after the other, albeit on different threads: I'm afraid my party seems to be filling up with people who expect results to be offered to them on a plate without any effort, and that may reflect the new intake of members in the last few years. To my surprise I have received a Lib Dem leaflet. It is a curious beast. One side is a rant about the Spatial Plan and a bit about sixth-formers parking outside... erm... the sixth-form. The other side is an angry denunciation of the Tories and Labour and says it is ridiculous that the Lib Dems aren't in power. Crossing over with yet another thread, the party seems to have lost the Frank Pikes and has been filling up with Warden Hodgeses. The place: Warmington on Sea
The event : Central Warmington by election November 1945.
"Uncle Arthur, i don't want to go canvassing in the rain, I'll get wet and Mum said I wasn't to get all wet"
"Oh do be quiet Frank"
"Ah! I've got you now Napoleon, canvassing without masks and turning on lights without using low energy lightbulbs"
"Oh, do go away Hodges and join the local residents association in their apparently apolitical bid for power".
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 12, 2021 10:54:02 GMT
Appropriately, I read these two posts one after the other, albeit on different threads: Crossing over with yet another thread, the party seems to have lost the Frank Pikes and has been filling up with Warden Hodgeses. The place: Warmington on Sea
The event : Central Warmington by election November 1945.
"Uncle Arthur, i don't want to go canvassing in the rain, I'll get wet and Mum said I wasn't to get all wet" "Oh do be quiet Frank" "Ah! I've got you now Napoleon, canvassing without masks and turning on lights without using low energy lightbulbs" "Oh, do go away Hodges and join the local residents association in their apparently apolitical bid for power".
Love Dad's Army. Wilson would make a good Liberal candidate. Mainwaring would probably have been the Conservative (I think there is actually a reference in one episode to him becoming an alderman after the war). I would reckon Hodges would be Labour. The verger is enough of a busybody to go with a self-important apolitical resident's group. And Colonel Square as an independent on a platform not too far from UKIP. Mainwaring would end up winning by a small margin after a strong performance at the hustings. Sorry to get off topic, but I couldn't resist this one.  |
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