Prediction Competition - July 2021

[robbienicoll]

Unfortunately the Dover contest on the 22nd falls foul of the 12 day rule between identification on the thread and the date of the by-election. My apologies for missing it and will make sure to double check the list in future. The 7 other contests that day will have to suffice!

[J.G.Harston]

Jul 12, 2021 10:54:02 GMT peterl said:

Jul 9, 2021 16:54:10 GMT finsobruce said:

The place: Warmington on Sea

The event : Central Warmington by election November 1945.

"Uncle Arthur, i don't want to go canvassing in the rain, I'll get wet and Mum said I wasn't to get all wet"

"Oh do be quiet Frank"

"Ah! I've got you now Napoleon, canvassing without masks and turning on lights without using low energy lightbulbs"

"Oh, do go away Hodges and join the local residents association in their apparently apolitical bid for power".

Love Dad's Army.

Wilson would make a good Liberal candidate. Mainwaring would probably have been the Conservative (I think there is actually a reference in one episode to him becoming an alderman after the war). I would reckon Hodges would be Labour. The verger is enough of a busybody to go with a self-important apolitical resident's group. And Colonel Square as an independent on a platform not too far from UKIP. Mainwaring would end up winning by a small margin after a strong performance at the hustings.

Sorry to get off topic, but I couldn't resist this one.

I think that was the consensus on the other thread. And Ian Lavender did play a very Pike-like Liberal candidate in an episode of Rising Damp.

[peterl]

Jul 12, 2021 12:36:27 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Jul 12, 2021 10:54:02 GMT peterl said:

Love Dad's Army.

Wilson would make a good Liberal candidate. Mainwaring would probably have been the Conservative (I think there is actually a reference in one episode to him becoming an alderman after the war). I would reckon Hodges would be Labour. The verger is enough of a busybody to go with a self-important apolitical resident's group. And Colonel Square as an independent on a platform not too far from UKIP. Mainwaring would end up winning by a small margin after a strong performance at the hustings.

Sorry to get off topic, but I couldn't resist this one.

I think that was the consensus on the other thread. And Ian Lavender did play a very Pike-like Liberal candidate in an episode of Rising Damp.

Which other thread please?

[J.G.Harston]

Jul 12, 2021 12:38:38 GMT peterl said:

Jul 12, 2021 12:36:27 GMT J.G.Harston said:

I think that was the consensus on the other thread. And Ian Lavender did play a very Pike-like Liberal candidate in an episode of Rising Damp.

Which other thread please?

I've had a look for it but can't find it, it was something along the lines of: what do you think fictional characters' political allegencies would be.

[carlton43]

Jul 12, 2021 13:03:26 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Jul 12, 2021 12:38:38 GMT peterl said:

Which other thread please?

I've had a look for it but can't find it, it was something along the lines of: what do you think fictional characters' political allegencies would be.

It is a thread entitled

'Fictional Characters Voting Intentions'

and I think you were last to post on it 3-years back.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 12, 2021 11:30:55 GMT robbienicoll said:

Unfortunately the Dover contest on the 22nd falls foul of the 12 day rule between identification on the thread and the date of the by-election. My apologies for missing it and will make sure to double check the list in future. The 7 other contests that day will have to suffice!

But its the only one I know the exact result for.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

SANDWELL MBC; Tividale
HEVICAN, Robert Lionel (Labour) 46.3%
HENLAN, Emma Louise Camero (Conservative)46.1%
BRADLEY, Nicholas (Liberal Democrat) 7%
KUTEBURA, Energy (Independent) 0.4%
GINGELL, Richard (TUSC) 0.2%

[Deleted]

Tividale

Lab 46.5
Con 46.4
LD 5.5
Ind 0.9
TUSC 0.7

[Tony Otim]

Sandwell, Tividale: Lab 48.3; Con 41.4; LD 4.0; TUSC 3.4; Kutebura 2.9

[peterl]

Tividale

Con 46.1
Lab 45.2
LD 6.5
Ind 1.5
TUSC 0.7

[andrewp]

Sandwell Tividale

Lab 48
Con 44
LD 5
TUSC 1
Ind 2

[iainbhx]

SANDWELL MBC; Tividale : Con 49.1 Lab 47.0 LDm 2.7 TUSC 0.8 Ind 0.4

[greenhert]

Sandwell MBC, Tividale: Conservative 47, Labour 45, Liberal Democrats 5, Independent (Kutebura) 2, TUSC 1. Conservative gain from Labour.

[Robert Waller]

Sandwell, Tividale: Lab 43; Con 47; LD 8; TUSC 1; Kutebura 1

[yellowperil]

Sandwell, Tividale: Con 48.5, Lab 46.5, LD 3, TUSC 1, Ind 1

[yellowperil]

Jul 12, 2021 14:20:22 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jul 12, 2021 11:30:55 GMT robbienicoll said:

Unfortunately the Dover contest on the 22nd falls foul of the 12 day rule between identification on the thread and the date of the by-election. My apologies for missing it and will make sure to double check the list in future. The 7 other contests that day will have to suffice!

But its the only one I know the exact result for.

There will be nothing stopping you posting the prediction in the usual way, and we'll all be mightily impressed - it's just that it won't count for the competition, unfortunately.

[Richard Cromwell]

Tividale, Sandwell

CON	41%
LAB	40%
LD	14%
IND	5%
TUSC	0%

[agbutler]

Sandwell, Tividale
Lab: 51
Con: 41
LDem: 5
Ind: 2
TUSC: 1

[Toylyyev]

Sandwell MBC, Tividale: Conservative 47, Labour 46, Liberal Democrat 4. TUSC 2, Independent 1.

[rightleaning]

Sandwell, Tividale: C 46; Lab 43; LD 9; TUSC 1; Kutebura 1