ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Jul 15, 2021 11:56:10 GMT
Just realised my entry was hideously late so I will withdraw and drop by another time.
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,534
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jul 15, 2021 16:24:00 GMT
Sandwell: i predikt
Lab 50%
Con 35%
LD 10%
Ind 3%
TUSC 2%
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 15, 2021 19:17:38 GMT
14 entries this week with agbutler, conservativeestimate and johnloony all joining and andykernow missing. Johnloony posted well after the deadline so has been timed out, although I've included his prediction in the weekly ranking. Aside from that, all on time and correct. Tividale, Sandwell: 8 Conservative gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 0.9% (peterl) to 4% (Robert Waller). 6 have a Labour hold, majorities ranging from 0.1% (conservativeestimate) to 15% (johnloony). Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vy0j488eotHOvUZdFO7hSok-ajO9_Tq9eiWVK2rGh4I/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 16, 2021 6:26:38 GMT
Waiting for the boss to pronounce officially but I make that a very narrow (home?) win for iainbhx,so congratulations to him if that's correct. Not that this is much of a result to disturb the monthly rankings |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 16, 2021 8:05:50 GMT
Waiting for the boss to pronounce officially but I make that a very narrow (home?) win for iainbhx ,so congratulations to him if that's correct. Not that this is much of a result to disturb the monthly rankings Results are now up, and they say joint win between the two of you, so either you're too modest or I made a mistake somewhere! |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 16, 2021 8:20:48 GMT
Waiting for the boss to pronounce officially but I make that a very narrow (home?) win for iainbhx ,so congratulations to him if that's correct. Not that this is much of a result to disturb the monthly rankings Results are now up, and they say joint win between the two of you, so either you're too modest or I made a mistake somewhere! The third possibility, that my quick back of envelope calculation was less accurate than the computer, is far more likely. I think neither of your two suggestions are at all plausible. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 16, 2021 8:49:50 GMT
Waiting for the boss to pronounce officially but I make that a very narrow (home?) win for iainbhx,so congratulations to him if that's correct. Not that this is much of a result to disturb the monthly rankings My father was in a nursing home in Tividale at the end of his life, so yes, I had been there quite a bit - but it was 10 years ago now. So I suppose I have a bit of local knowledge. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,534
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jul 18, 2021 9:08:56 GMT
14 entries this week with agbutler, conservativeestimate and johnloony all joining and andykernow missing. Johnloony posted well after the deadline so has been timed out, although I've included his prediction in the weekly ranking. Aside from that, all on time and correct. Tividale, Sandwell: 8 Conservative gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 0.9% (peterl) to 4% (Robert Waller). 6 have a Labour hold, majorities ranging from 0.1% (conservativeestimate) to 15% (johnloony). Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vy0j488eotHOvUZdFO7hSok-ajO9_Tq9eiWVK2rGh4I/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Deadline? I was 5:24pm. Four hours before polling closed?! |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 18, 2021 10:28:15 GMT
14 entries this week with agbutler, conservativeestimate and johnloony all joining and andykernow missing. Johnloony posted well after the deadline so has been timed out, although I've included his prediction in the weekly ranking. Aside from that, all on time and correct. Tividale, Sandwell: 8 Conservative gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 0.9% (peterl) to 4% (Robert Waller). 6 have a Labour hold, majorities ranging from 0.1% (conservativeestimate) to 15% (johnloony). Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vy0j488eotHOvUZdFO7hSok-ajO9_Tq9eiWVK2rGh4I/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Deadline? I was 5:24pm. Four hours before polling closed?! Its rules Mate innit? We live in a world of petty rules and this Forum and the British public love 'em. Ignore them and all you lose is points ..... And prizes. Who wants prizes except insecure nerks? |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 18, 2021 11:11:08 GMT
14 entries this week with agbutler, conservativeestimate and johnloony all joining and andykernow missing. Johnloony posted well after the deadline so has been timed out, although I've included his prediction in the weekly ranking. Aside from that, all on time and correct. Tividale, Sandwell: 8 Conservative gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 0.9% (peterl) to 4% (Robert Waller). 6 have a Labour hold, majorities ranging from 0.1% (conservativeestimate) to 15% (johnloony). Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vy0j488eotHOvUZdFO7hSok-ajO9_Tq9eiWVK2rGh4I/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Deadline? I was 5:24pm. Four hours before polling closed?!
For this competition the deadline is 9am on polling day, has been since I started entering it in 2019, probably has been since it began.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Jul 19, 2021 18:22:02 GMT
Camden LBC, Fortune Green: Conservative 21, Labour 37, Liberal Democrat 42. Dover DC, Alkham & Capel-Le-Ferne:  Leicester UA, Humberstone and Hamilton: Conservative 32.5, Labour 30, Liberal Democrat 16, Green 18.5, Reform UK 1.5, For Britain 1.5. North Somerset UA, Congresbury & Puxton: Conservative 40, Labour 5, Green 55. Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Tyn-y-Nant: Conservative 6, Labour 80, Plaid Cymru 14. Spelthorne DC, Staines: Conservative 39, Green 51, TUSC 4, Reform UK 3, Independent 3. Thanet DC, Cliftonville East: Conservative 66, Labour 17, Women’s Equality Party 17. Wirral MBC, Liscard: Conservative 20, Labour 55, Liberal Democrat 6, Green 14, For Britain 2, Independent 3. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2021 7:21:06 GMT
CAMDEN LBC; Fortune Green Liberal Democrat 43% Labour 37% Conservative 20% DOVER DC; Alkham & Capel-Le-Ferne
LEICESTER UA; Humberstone and Hamilton Labour – 34% Conservative – 30% Green – 28.4% Liberal Democrat – 7% Reform UK – 0.4% For Britain – 0.2% NORTH SOMERSET UA; Congresbury & Puxton Green -58% Conservative – 27% Labour – 15% RHONDDA CYNON TAF UA; Tyn-y-Nant Labour – 58% Conservative – 25% Plaid Cymru – 17% SPELTHORNE DC; Staines Green – 58.8% Conservatives – 37% Independent – 3.5% Reform UK – 0.4% TUSC – 0.3% THANET DC; Cliftonville East Conservative – 67% Women’s Equality Party – 17% Labour – 16% WIRRAL MBC; Liscard Labour – 49% Conservative – 23% Green – 13% Liberal Democrat – 11% Independent – 3.8% For Britain – 0.2% |
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Post by andykernow on Jul 20, 2021 13:00:16 GMT
Camden - Fortune - LD Hold
Conservatve - 28%
Labour - 34%
Liberal Democrats - 38%
Dover - Arkham - Con Hold
Labour - 15%
Liberal Democrats - 25%
Conservative - 39%
Green - 21%
Leicester - Humberstone - Labour Hold
Labour - 51%
Liberal Democrat - 8%
Green - 18%
Conservative - 20%
For Britain - 1%
Reform UK - 2%
North Somerset - Congresbury - Green Gain from Lib Dem
Green - 51%
Labour 27%
Conservative - 22%
Rhonnda - Tyn Y Nant - Lab Hold
Labour - 48%
Plaid Cymru - 43%
Conservative - 9%
Spelthorne - Staines - Green Hold
Green - 39%
TUSC - 2%
Reform UK - 3%
Independent 32%
Conservative 24%
Thanet - Cliftonville - Con Hold
Labour - 39%
Conservative - 58%
Women's Equality - 3%
Thanet - Liscard - Labour Hold
Liberal Democrat - 15%
For Britain - 1%
Labour - 42%
Green - 21%
Conservative - 12%
Independent - 9%
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 20, 2021 16:09:17 GMT
Deadline? I was 5:24pm. Four hours before polling closed?!
For this competition the deadline is 9am on polling day, has been since I started entering it in 2019, probably has been since it began.
The deadline for the local government by-elections forum prediction competition (aka the proper competition) has indeed always been 9am on polling day. There have been any number of other one-off prediction competions, particularly those for parliamentary by elections, set up by any member who feels like it and making up their own rules and marking systems,(aka the bastard competitions). Quite often the closing time for those has been the close of polls rather than the opening of polls. Obviously these bastards don't maintain the same standard as the real thing. Up to now this hasn't mattered all that much, but it is obviously now confusing honourable members who having tried their luck with the bastards, now think to have a go with the real thing. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 20, 2021 17:08:37 GMT
Camden - Fortune - LD Hold
Liberal Democrats - 41%
Labour - 32%
Conservatve - 27%
Dover - Arkham - Con Hold
Two Face Conservative - 36%
Scarecrow Liberal Democrats - 27%
Poison Ivy Green - 23%
The Joker Labour - 14%
Leicester - Humberstone - Labour Hold
Labour - 45%
Green - 22%
Conservative - 18%
Liberal Democrat - 12%
Reform UK - 2%
For Britain - 1%
North Somerset - Congresbury - Green Gain from Lib Dem
Green - 58%
Labour 25%
Conservative - 17%
Rhonnda - Tyn Y Nant - Lab Hold
Labour - 51%
Plaid Cymru - 39%
Conservative - 10%
Spelthorne - Staines - Green Hold
Green - 44%
Independent 30%
Conservative 22%
Reform UK - 2%
TUSC - 2%
Thanet - Cliftonville - Con Hold
Conservative - 55%
Labour - 43%
Women's Equality - 2%
Thanet - Liscard - Labour Hold
Labour - 39%
Green - 24%
Liberal Democrat - 16%
Conservative - 11%
Independent - 9%
For Britain - 1%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 20, 2021 17:12:36 GMT
I'm sure the voters of Liscard ward will be shocked to learn they've been annexed by Thanet according to 2 of our posters 😉
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 20, 2021 18:26:30 GMT
I'm sure the voters of Liscard ward will be shocked to learn they've been annexed by Thanet according to 2 of our posters 😉 Yes , it's definitely not in Thanet but I keep thinking it ought to be in Cornwall  |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2021 18:51:49 GMT
Is the future of the Miskatonic University the main issue in the Dover byelection then?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 20, 2021 20:03:21 GMT
Camden: Lab 39.0; LD 37.1; Con 23.9
Dover: Con 56.7; LD 26.1; Lab 9.0; Grn 8.2
Leicester: Lab 48.1; Con 30.9; Grn 10.5; LD 7.0; RefUK 2.4; For Britain 1.1
North Somerset: Grn 57.4; Con 25.9; Lab 16.7
Rhondda Cynon Taf: Lab 48.1; Con 27.2; PC 24.7
Spelthorne: Grn 43.0; Con 36.2; West 12.1; RefUK 5.2; TUSC 3.5
Thanet: Con 69.6; Lab 22.1; WEQ 8.3
Wirral: Lab 57.3; Con 24.5; Grn 9.3; LD 5.6; Williams 2.5; For Britain 0.8
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Post by greenhert on Jul 21, 2021 19:17:07 GMT
Camden LBC, Fortune Green: Labour 43, Liberal Democrats 35, Conservative 22. Labour gain from Liberal Democrats.
Dover DC, Alkham & Capel-le-Ferne: Con 55, Lib Dem 28, Lab 12, Green 5.
Leicester UA, Humberstone & Hamilton: Lab 52, Con 28, Lib Dem 10, Green 7, Reform UK 2, For Britain 1.
North Somerset UA, Congresbury & Paxton: Green 54, Con 34, Lab 12. Green gain from Liberal Democrats.
Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Tyn-y-Nant: Lab 50, Plaid Cymru 36, Con 14.
Spelthorne DC, Staines: Green 47, Con 40, Independent (West) 9, Reform UK 3, TUSC 1.
Thanet DC, Cliftonville East: Con 66, Lab 28, Women's Equality 6.
Wirral MBC, Liscard: Lab 54, Con 27, Lib Dem 7, Green 6, Independent (Williams) 4, For Britain 2.
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