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Post by Richard Cromwell on Jul 28, 2021 18:41:13 GMT
Pitsea North West, Basildon | LAB | 37% | | CON | 34% | | Basildon Community Residents | 21% | | LD | 8% | | Reform | 0% | | For Britain | 0% |
East Retford South, Bassetlaw Knaresborough Scriven Park, Harrogate Gaywood South, Norfolk | CON | 45% | | LAB | 35% | | LD | 19% | | UKIP | 1% | | IND | 0% |
Felgate and Hedworth, South Tyneside | IND | 42% | | LAB | 41% | | CON | 9% | | GRN | 5% | | LD | 3% |
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Post by rightleaning on Jul 28, 2021 19:55:44 GMT
Basildon DC, Pitsea North West; C 42, Lab 35, Residents 10, LD 6, RUK 5, FB 2
Bassetlaw DC, East Retford South: C 35, Lab 32, Ind 35
Harrogate DC, Knaresborough Scriven Park: LD 44, C 41, Lab 13, UKIP 2
Norfolk CC, Gaywood South: C 41, Lab 37, LD 15, Ind 4, UKIP 3,
South Tyneside MBC, Fellgate and Hedworth: Lab 41, Ind 37, C 12, LD 6, Gn 4,
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 28, 2021 21:12:53 GMT
Basildon: Lab 47.5; Con 37.3; Res 8.5; LD 3.2; RefUK 1.9; For Britain 1.6
Bassetlaw: Con 43.6; Lab 28.9; Richards 27.5
Harrogate: Con 42.7; LD 40.6; Lab 11.7; UKIP 5.0
Norfolk: Con 43.4; Lab 37.8; LD 11.5; Talbot 4.1; UKIP 3.2
South Tyneside: Lab 44.8; Robertson 40.2; Con 8.0; LD 5.2; Grn 1.8
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 28, 2021 21:19:04 GMT
Basildon: Lab 47.5; Con 37.3; Res 8.5; LD 3.2; RefUK 1.9; For Britain 1.6 Bassetlaw: Con 43.6; Lab 28.9; Richards 27.5 Harrogate: Con 42.7; LD 40.6; Lab 11.7; UKIP 5.0 Norfolk: Con 43.4; Lab 37.8; LD 11.5; Talbot 4.1; UKIP 3.2 South Tyneside: 44.8; Robertson 40.2; Con 8.0; LD 5.2; Grn 1.8 I presume Tony means Lab 44.8 in S Tyneside |
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Post by agbutler on Jul 28, 2021 21:22:24 GMT
Basildon: 45 Labour, 35 Tory, 11 Res, 5 LD, 2 Reform, 2 For Britain
Bassetlaw: 42 Labour, 35 Tory, 23 Ind
Harrogate: 46 LD, 40 Tory, 12 Labour, 2 UKIP
Norfolk: 41 Labour, 39 Tory, 10 LD, 5 UKIP, 5 Ind
South Tyneside: 50 Labour, 21 Tory, 20 Ind, 5 LD, 4 Grn
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Post by greenhert on Jul 28, 2021 21:35:06 GMT
Basildon BC, Pitsea North West: Labour 43, Conservative 35, Basildon Residents 15, Liberal Democrats 4, Reform UK 1.5, For Britain 1.5.
Bassetlaw DC, East Retford South: Labour 43, Conservative 40, Independent (Richards) 17.
Harogate DC, Knaresborough Scriven Park: Liberal Democrats 51, Conservative 42, Labour 7. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Norfolk CC, Gaywood South: Conservative 45, Labour 38, Liberal Democrats 8, Independent (Talbot) 5, UKIP 4.
South Tyneside MBC, Felgate & Hedworth: Labour 43, Independent (Robertson) 31, Conservative 16, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 4. Labour gain from Independent.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 28, 2021 22:10:04 GMT
Basildon, Pitsea NW: Con 42, Lab 37, LD 3, BCR 15, RefUK 2. FB 1
Bassetlaw, East Retford S: Con 40, Lab39, Ind 21
Harrogate,Knaresborough Scriven Park: Con 40, Lab 15, LD 44, UKIP 1
Norfolk, Gaywood South: Con 38. Lab 39, LD 15, UKIP 2, Ind 6
South Tyneside, Felgate & Hedworth: Con 14, Lab 40, LD 3, GP 2, Ind 41
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 28, 2021 23:15:04 GMT
Basildon DC, Pitsea North West; Conservative 40, Labour 38, Liberal Democrat 5, Reform UK 2, For Britain 1, Basildon Community Residents Party 14.
Bassetlaw DC, East Retford South: Conservative 38, Labour 31, Independent 31.
Harrogate DC, Knaresborough Scriven Park: Conservative 44, Labour 8, Liberal Democrat 46, UKIP 2.
Norfolk CC, Gaywood South: Conservative 41, Labour 38, Liberal Democrat 13, UKIP 3, Independent 5.
South Tyneside MBC, Fellgate and Hedworth: Conservative 14, Labour 36, Liberal Democrat 5, Green 5, Independent 40.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 29, 2021 5:06:59 GMT
Basildon DC, Pitsea NW; Lab 40, Con 38, Res 11, LDm 5, REF-UK 4, FB 2
Bassetlaw DC, East Retford S: Ind 40 Lab 34 Con 26
Harrogate DC, Knaresborough Scriven Park: LDm 47, Con 43, Lab 8, UKIP 2
Norfolk CC, Gaywood South: Con 43, Lab 40, LDm 10, UKIP 5, Ind 2
South Tyneside MBC, Fellgate and Hedworth: Lab 44, Con 25, Ind 20, LDm 8, Grn 3
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Post by andrewp on Jul 29, 2021 7:45:01 GMT
Basildon. Pitsea NW. Lab 45, Con 41, Res 7, LD 4, Ref 2, FB 1
Bassetlaw, East Retford S. Ind 35, Lab 34, Con 31
Harrogate. Knaresborough Scriven Park. LD 47, Con 40, Lab 11, UKIP 2
Norfolk, Gaywood South. Con 41: Lab 39, LD 10, Ind 8, UKIP 2
South Tyneside, Fellgate and Hedworth, Lab 42, Ind 39, Con 11, LD 5, Green 3.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 29, 2021 9:44:41 GMT
Most of us think most or all of these 5 will be close this week. ( or are hedging our bets).
Particularly difficult to predict how the 2 incumbents standing for re election will do.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 29, 2021 10:13:11 GMT
Most of us think most or all of these 5 will be close this week. ( or are hedging our bets). Particularly difficult to predict how the 2 incumbents standing for re election will do. ...and at least two quite likely to be close 3-way contests -always embarassing when your expected winner finishes third.  |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 29, 2021 10:26:00 GMT
Most of us think most or all of these 5 will be close this week. ( or are hedging our bets). Particularly difficult to predict how the 2 incumbents standing for re election will do. ...and at least two quite likely to be close 3-way contests -always embarassing when your expected winner finishes third. It wouldn’t surprise me if John Robertson and Helen Richards both got 60% or both got 15% |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Jul 29, 2021 13:20:04 GMT
I haven't been following these in detail, but I've just read the story of John Robertson (Ind, F&H, South Tyneside) so I predict that he will be in 3rd place with 14%.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 29, 2021 17:08:31 GMT
...and at least two quite likely to be close 3-way contests -always embarassing when your expected winner finishes third. It wouldn’t surprise me if John Robertson and Helen Richards both got 60% or both got 15% Robertson is being an arse, I can see that not going down well. Richardson is being a NIMBY, I can see that going down better, which is why I predicted what I did. I actually spent longest on the King's Lynn seat. |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 29, 2021 17:19:17 GMT
It wouldn’t surprise me if John Robertson and Helen Richards both got 60% or both got 15% Robertson is being an arse, I can see that not going down well. Richardson is being a NIMBY, I can see that going down better, which is why I predicted what I did. I actually spent longest on the King's Lynn seat. Yes I thought resigning to be a NIMBY might go down well. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 29, 2021 20:27:49 GMT
Quick housekeeping announcement before predictions summary. It is likely most regulars will have a longer memory than me on why the 12 day rule was set at 12 days, and I can certainly see the need for such a rule to exist. However, I think that on balance it is a bit long, and so I'm minded to shorten it to 8 days before the poll closes for the by-election as of next month, which would have caught Dover last week. This would mean that anyone who only checks in once a week for the competition (which I think is the main reason for the rule) won't be disadvantaged. Any thoughts on this would be welcome. 13 entries this week with agbutler returning. All on time, but Right Leaning receives 2 faults for going over in Bassetlaw. He also didn't specify a winner between the Conservative and Independent candidate who are tied for first place in the same election, so unless a draw happens will receive 5 wrong winner faults if either wins, with the usual 10 for a Labour win. Pitsea North West, Basildon: 8 Labour hold, with alien8ted, Right Leaning, Robert Waller, Toylyyev and yellowperil Conservative gain. East Retford South, Bassetlaw: 6 Labour hold, with Robert Waller, Tony Otim and yellowperil Conservative gain, and andrewp, iainbhx and Toylyyev Independent (Richards) gain. Knaresborough Scriven Park, Harrogate: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 1% (Richard Cromwell) to 10% (peterl). Tony Otim Conservative hold on a majority of 2.1%. Gaywood South, Norfolk: 10 Conservative hold, with agbutler, Toylyyev and yellowperil Labour gain. Felgate and Hedworth, South Tyneside: 9 Labour gain from Independent, with Richard Cromwell, Robert Waller, Toylyyev and yellowperil Independent (Robertson) hold. Johnloony also predicts that Robertson will crash (if you'll pardon the pun) into third place! Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LT8BXolozhCWx_8eWjvZemINNVciQEKv2G8zkxiD66g/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 29, 2021 20:32:28 GMT
Quick housekeeping announcement before predictions summary. It is likely most regulars will have a longer memory than me on why the 12 day rule was set at 12 days, and I can certainly see the need for such a rule to exist. However, I think that on balance it is a bit long, and so I'm minded to shorten it to 8 days before the poll closes for the by-election as of next month, which would have caught Dover last week. This would mean that anyone who only checks in once a week for the competition (which I think is the main reason for the rule) won't be disadvantaged. Any thoughts on this would be welcome. 13 entries this week with agbutler returning. All on time, but Right Leaning receives 2 faults for going over in Bassetlaw. He also didn't specify a winner between the Conservative and Independent candidate who are tied for first place in the same election, so unless a draw happens will receive 5 wrong winner faults if either wins, with the usual 10 for a Labour win. Pitsea North West, Basildon: 8 Labour hold, with alien8ted, Right Leaning, Robert Waller, Toylyyev and yellowperil Conservative gain. East Retford South, Bassetlaw: 7 Labour hold, with Robert Waller, Tony Otim and yellowperil Conservative gain, and iainbhx and Toylyyev Independent (Richards) gain. Knaresborough Scriven Park, Harrogate: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 1% (Richard Cromwell) to 10% (peterl). Tony Otim Conservative hold on a majority of 2.1%. Gaywood South, Norfolk: 10 Conservative hold, with agbutler, Toylyyev and yellowperil Labour gain. Felgate and Hedworth, South Tyneside: 9 Labour gain from Independent, with Richard Cromwell, Robert Waller, Toylyyev and yellowperil Independent (Robertson) hold. Johnloony also predicts that Robertson will crash (if you'll pardon the pun) into third place! Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LT8BXolozhCWx_8eWjvZemINNVciQEKv2G8zkxiD66g/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Thankyou for this. I don’t think it will matter(!) but my numbers are for a Richards gain in East Retford. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 29, 2021 21:03:59 GMT
Quick housekeeping announcement before predictions summary. It is likely most regulars will have a longer memory than me on why the 12 day rule was set at 12 days, and I can certainly see the need for such a rule to exist. However, I think that on balance it is a bit long, and so I'm minded to shorten it to 8 days before the poll closes for the by-election as of next month, which would have caught Dover last week. This would mean that anyone who only checks in once a week for the competition (which I think is the main reason for the rule) won't be disadvantaged. Any thoughts on this would be welcome. 13 entries this week with agbutler returning. All on time, but Right Leaning receives 2 faults for going over in Bassetlaw. He also didn't specify a winner between the Conservative and Independent candidate who are tied for first place in the same election, so unless a draw happens will receive 5 wrong winner faults if either wins, with the usual 10 for a Labour win. Pitsea North West, Basildon: 8 Labour hold, with alien8ted, Right Leaning, Robert Waller, Toylyyev and yellowperil Conservative gain. East Retford South, Bassetlaw: 7 Labour hold, with Robert Waller, Tony Otim and yellowperil Conservative gain, and iainbhx and Toylyyev Independent (Richards) gain. Knaresborough Scriven Park, Harrogate: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 1% (Richard Cromwell) to 10% (peterl). Tony Otim Conservative hold on a majority of 2.1%. Gaywood South, Norfolk: 10 Conservative hold, with agbutler, Toylyyev and yellowperil Labour gain. Felgate and Hedworth, South Tyneside: 9 Labour gain from Independent, with Richard Cromwell, Robert Waller, Toylyyev and yellowperil Independent (Robertson) hold. Johnloony also predicts that Robertson will crash (if you'll pardon the pun) into third place! Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LT8BXolozhCWx_8eWjvZemINNVciQEKv2G8zkxiD66g/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! I agree shortening the 12 day rule to 8 days would be welcome. I have no idea why it was set at 12 days in the first place, well before my time. Robert might know? |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 29, 2021 21:21:53 GMT
Thankyou for this. I don’t think it will matter(!) but my numbers are for a Richards gain in East Retford. Cheers for the spot, now amended. |
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