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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 28, 2021 13:04:16 GMT
There appears to be 26 by-elections for 28 seats during July.
- 7 by-elections including a "double" election on 1 July
- 6 by-elections including a "double" election on 8 July
- 1 on 15 July
- 7 on 22 July
- 5 on 29 July
3 by-elections are for District Councils previously contested in May
9 by-elections including both "double" elections are for District Councils last contested in 2019
2 are for District Councils last contested in 2018
4 are for Unitary Authorities last contested in 2019
3 are in Metropolitan Boroughs previously contested in May
3 are in London Boroughs last contested in 2018
1 is in a County Council previously contested in May
1 is in a Welsh Council last contested in 2017
Labour defend 10 of the by-election seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor, one of which was sitting as an Independent, 5 a resignation and 1 a disqualification
Conservatives defend 8 seats including both seats in one "double" election, 3 following the death of the previous councillor, 5 a resignation and 1 disqualification who was sitting as an Independent
Independents defend 4 seats including both seats in one "double" election, all following resignations
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, all following resignations
Greens defend 1 seat following a resignation
City Independents defend 1 seat following a resignation
There is a full slate of 28 Conservative candidates, 26 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrats, 17 Greens, 4 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 4 Reform UK, 3 For Britain, 2 UKIP, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Communist Party of Britain, 1 Women's Equality Party, 1 Taking the Initiative Party, 1 Basildon Community Residents Group and 1 City Independent along with 10 Independents contesting 9 seats
- a total of 120 candidates for 28 seats.
Double elections will be scored using the top method.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 28, 2021 13:19:41 GMT
Are we treating the 2 Indies in Newark and Sherwood this week as one slate? I believe they might be running together.
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 28, 2021 13:38:47 GMT
Are we treating the 2 Indies in Newark and Sherwood this week as one slate? I believe they might be running together. Yes that was my thinking too so I'm happy to go with this. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 28, 2021 13:42:23 GMT
Are we treating the 2 Indies in Newark and Sherwood this week as one slate? I believe they might be running together. Yes that was my thinking too so I'm happy to go with this. And not that it makes much difference to predictions but In the double vacancies, are we using ‘top’ vote or ‘average’ vote for each party? I’ve forgotten what we did in the past. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 28, 2021 13:57:48 GMT
Yes that was my thinking too so I'm happy to go with this. And not that it makes much difference to predictions but In the double vacancies, are we using ‘top’ vote or ‘average’ vote for each party? I’ve forgotten what we did in the past. Top, we've used average before but I think there was something before where the wrong winner faults were more difficult to attribute so going with top for now. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 29, 2021 7:06:40 GMT
CHELMSFORD DC; Writtle Conservative – 47% Liberal Democrat – 46% Green – 4% Labour – 3% ELMBRIDGE DC; Cobham & Downside Conservative - 49% Liberal Democrat – 41% Labour – 6% Green – 3% Reform UK – 1% ENFIELD LBC; Bush Hill Park Conservative - 45% Liberal Democrat – 27% Labour – 20.9% Green – 5.1% TUSC – 1.1% Taking the Initiative Party – 0.9% ISLINGTON LBC; Tollington Labour – 54% Green – 29% Liberal Democrat – 9% Conservative - 8% NEWARK & SHERWOOD DC; Bridge - see lower post
BICKERTON, Ryan Andrew (Independent) – 22.5%
DARBY, Deb’s (Independent) – 21.9%
GEARY, Lisa June (Labour) – 11.4%
HAYNES, Simon Edward (Conservative) – 10.9%
PALMER, Mark (Labour) – 10.4%
KELLAS, Jack Logan (Conservative) – 9.7%
CULLEN, Ryan Thomas (Liberal Democrat) – 4.1%
MELTON, Keith Myers (Liberal Democrat) – 3.9%
PLATT, Steve (Green) – 2.6%
POYZER, Mike (Green) – 2.6%
NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE UA; Heneage Conservative – 53% Labour – 27% Liberal Democrat – 18.2% TUSC – 1.8% STOKE ON TRENT UA; Penkhull & Stoke City Independents – 33% Labour – 32.9% Conservative – 26.1% Green – 8% |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 29, 2021 9:18:05 GMT
CHELMSFORD DC; Writtle Conservative – 47% Liberal Democrat – 46% Green – 4% Labour – 3% ELMBRIDGE DC; Cobham & Downside Conservative - 49% Liberal Democrat – 41% Labour – 6% Green – 3% Reform UK – 1% ENFIELD LBC; Bush Hill Park Conservative - 45% Liberal Democrat – 27% Labour – 20.9% Green – 5.1% TUSC – 1.1% Taking the Initiative Party – 0.9% ISLINGTON LBC; Tollington Labour – 54% Green – 29% Liberal Democrat – 9% Conservative - 8% NEWARK & SHERWOOD DC; Bridge
BICKERTON, Ryan Andrew (Independent) – 22.5%
DARBY, Deb’s (Independent) – 21.9%
GEARY, Lisa June (Labour) – 11.4%
HAYNES, Simon Edward (Conservative) – 10.9%
PALMER, Mark (Labour) – 10.4%
KELLAS, Jack Logan (Conservative) – 9.7%
CULLEN, Ryan Thomas (Liberal Democrat) – 4.1%
MELTON, Keith Myers (Liberal Democrat) – 3.9%
PLATT, Steve (Green) – 2.6%
POYZER, Mike (Green) – 2.6%
NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE UA; Heneage Conservative – 53% Labour – 27% Liberal Democrat – 18.2% TUSC – 1.8% STOKE ON TRENT UA; Penkhull & Stoke City Independents – 33% Labour – 32.9% Conservative – 26.1% Green – 8% I think for the double vacancy it should only be one percentage for each party, treating the indies as a combined slate, using top vote method of calculating percentage and indicating if you think seats would be split. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 29, 2021 9:32:50 GMT
I notice Defenestrated Fipplebox has given a candidate by candidate breakdown for Newark whereas you want a party top vote it seems. Interested to know how that works out - presumably Defenestrated Fipplebox risks a major handicap for giving more detailed information than you want! If you simply add his party candidates together you get in effect an average score result which might still be a minor handicap. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 29, 2021 11:21:08 GMT
Oh right, I understand better I think, all 2nd place party candidates will be disregarded.
NEWARK
Independent - 46.5%
Labour - 24.6%
Conservative - 22.4%
Liberal Democrat - 3.9%
Green - 2.6%
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Post by andykernow on Jun 30, 2021 12:21:26 GMT
CHELMSFORD - LD Gain from CON
Green 9%
Lib Dem 38%
Lab 17%
Con 36%
ELMBRIDGE - CON Hold
Green 4%
Ref UK 6%
Lib Dem 20%
Con 61%
Lab 9%
ENFIELD - CON Hold
Lib Dem 8%
TUSC 1%
Con 58%
Green 5%
TIP 1%
Lab 27%
ISLINGTON - LAB HOLD
Con 5%
Lab 62%
Lib Dem 13%
Green 20%
NEWARK X 2 - IND HOLD x 2
Ind 45%
Lib Dem 20%
Lab 18%
Con 12%
Green 5%
NORTH EAST LINCS - LAB HOLD
TUSC 7%
Lib Dem 25%
Lab 45%
Con 23%
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 30, 2021 13:32:00 GMT
CHELMSFORD - LD Gain from CON Green 9% Lib Dem 38% Lab 17% Con 36% ELMBRIDGE - CON Hold Green 4% Ref UK 6% Lib Dem 20% Con 61% Lab 9% ENFIELD - CON Hold Lib Dem 8% TUSC 1% Con 58% Green 5% TIP 1% Lab 27% ISLINGTON - LAB HOLD Con 5% Lab 62% Lib Dem 13% Green 20% NEWARK X 2 - IND HOLD x 2 Ind 45% Lib Dem 20% Lab 18% Con 12% Green 5% NORTH EAST LINCS - LAB HOLD TUSC 7% Lib Dem 25% Lab 45% Con 23% Have you forgotten Stoke or does it just need more thought? ( they all need more thought as far as I'm concerned) |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 30, 2021 15:00:01 GMT
CHELMSFORD - LD Gain from CON Green 9% Lib Dem 38% Lab 17% Con 36% ELMBRIDGE - CON Hold Green 4% Ref UK 6% Lib Dem 20% Con 61% Lab 9% ENFIELD - CON Hold Lib Dem 8% TUSC 1% Con 58% Green 5% TIP 1% Lab 27% ISLINGTON - LAB HOLD Con 5% Lab 62% Lib Dem 13% Green 20% NEWARK X 2 - IND HOLD x 2 Ind 45% Lib Dem 20% Lab 18% Con 12% Green 5% NORTH EAST LINCS - LAB HOLD TUSC 7% Lib Dem 25% Lab 45% Con 23% Have you forgotten Stoke or does it just need more thought? ( they all need more thought as far as I'm concerned)
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 30, 2021 15:08:43 GMT
CHELMSFORD - LD Gain from CON Green 9% Lib Dem 38% Lab 17% Con 36% ELMBRIDGE - CON Hold Green 4% Ref UK 6% Lib Dem 20% Con 61% Lab 9% ENFIELD - CON Hold Lib Dem 8% TUSC 1% Con 58% Green 5% TIP 1% Lab 27% ISLINGTON - LAB HOLD Con 5% Lab 62% Lib Dem 13% Green 20% NEWARK X 2 - IND HOLD x 2 Ind 45% Lib Dem 20% Lab 18% Con 12% Green 5% NORTH EAST LINCS - LAB HOLD TUSC 7% Lib Dem 25% Lab 45% Con 23% Have you forgotten Stoke or does it just need more thought? ( they all need more thought as far as I'm concerned) I'm sure there are days when we'd all like to forget Stoke... |
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Jun 30, 2021 17:35:53 GMT
Writtle, Chelmsford Cobham & Downside, Elmbridge | CON | 44% | | LD | 43% | | GRN | 11% | | LAB | 2% | | Reform | 0% |
Bush Hill Park, Enfield | CON | 32% | | LD | 30% | | LAB | 21% | | GRN | 14% | | Initiative | 2% | | TUSC | 1% |
Tollington, Islington Bridge, Newark & Sherwood (Double / Top Vote) | IND | 65% | Win Both | | LAB | 13% | | | LD | 12% | | | CON | 7% | | | GRN | 2% | |
Heneage, North East Lincolnshire Penkhull & Stoke, Stoke-on-Trent |
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Post by Toylyyev on Jun 30, 2021 18:44:30 GMT
Chelmsford DC, Writtle: Conservative 55, Labour 6.5, Liberal Democrat 32, Green 6.5.
Elmbridge DC, Cobham & Downside: Conservative 65, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 22, Green 5, Reform UK 3.
Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 48, Labour 33, Liberal Democrat 9.5, Green 6.5, TUSC 2, Take the Initiative Party 1.
Islington LBC, Tollington: Conservative 13, Labour 48, Liberal Democrat 7, Green 32.
Newark and Sherwood DC, Bridge, top vote; Conservative 28, Labour 10, Liberal Democrat 5, Green 10, Independent 47.
North East Lincolnshire UA, Heneage: Conservative 55, Labour 34, Liberal Democrat 7, TUSC 4.
Stoke-on-Trent UA, Penkhull and Stoke: Conservative 30, Labour 33, Green 7, City Independent 30.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jun 30, 2021 18:59:51 GMT
Chelmsford DC, Writtle: Liberal Democrat 50, Conservative 38, Green 7, Labour 5
Elmbridge DC, Cobham & Downside: Conservative 59, Liberal Democrat 28, Green 6, Labour 5, Reform UK 2
Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 45, Labour 36, Liberal Democrat 12, Green 5, TUSC 1, Take the Initiative Party 1
Islington LBC, Tollington: Labour 52, Green 27, Conservative 12, Liberal Democrat 9
Newark and Sherwood DC, Bridge: Top vote: Independent 39, Conservative 31, Green 12, Liberal Democrat 10, Labour 8
North East Lincolnshire UA, Heneage: Conservative 59, Labour 30, Liberal Democrat 9, TUSC 2
Stoke-on-Trent UA, Penkhull and Stoke: City Independent 33, Conservative 30, Labour 28, Green 9
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iang
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Post by iang on Jun 30, 2021 19:07:22 GMT
Writtle, Chelmsford Cobham & Downside, Elmbridge | CON | 44% | | LD | 43% | | GRN | 11% | | LAB | 2% | | Reform | 0% |
Bush Hill Park, Enfield | CON | 32% | | LD | 30% | | LAB | 21% | | GRN | 14% | | Initiative | 2% | | TUSC | 1% |
Tollington, Islington Bridge, Newark & Sherwood (Double / Top Vote) | IND | 65% | Win Both | | LAB | 13% | | | LD | 12% | | | CON | 7% | | | GRN | 2% | |
Heneage, North East Lincolnshire Penkhull & Stoke, Stoke-on-Trent I'd be very pleasantly amazed if some of those results came up! |
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 30, 2021 19:38:04 GMT
Chelmsford: Con 57.1; LD 21.4; Lab 12.2; Grn 9.3
Elmbridge: Con 61.9; LD 23.7; Lab 7.9; Grn 4.4; Ref 2.1
Enfield: Con 56.3; Lab 24.7; LD 10.7; Grn 5.1; TUSC 1.7; Take the INitiative 1.5
Islington: Lab 69.1; Grn 14.5; LD 8.9; Con 7.5
Newark & Sherwood: Ind 50.4; Con 22.3; Lab 11.8; LD 8.5; Grn 7.0
NE LIncs: Con 49.7; Lab 43.0; LD 4.6; TUSC 2.6
Stoke: City Ind 36.2; Lab 33.8; Con 23.9; Grn 6.1
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Post by andrewp on Jun 30, 2021 20:20:36 GMT
Chelmsford, Writtle, Con 50, LD 34, Green 9, Lab 7
Elmbridge, Cobham and Downside. Con 56, LD 30, Lab 7, Green 5, Reform 2
Enfield, Bush Hill Park. Con 53, Lab 32, LD 10, Green 2, TTi 2, TUSC 1
Islington, Tollington. Lab 68, Green 15, LD 12, Con 5
Newark and Sherwood, Bridge. Ind 43, Con 25, Lab 24, LD 4, Green 4
NE Lincs, Heneage. Con 49, Lab 42, LD 6, TUSC 3
Stoke, Penkhull and Stoke. Lab 37, CitInd 36, Con 23, Green 4
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 30, 2021 20:40:25 GMT
Chelmsford, Writtle, Con 57, LD 32, Green 6, Lab 5
Elmbridge, Cobham and Downside. Con 65, LD 27, Lab 4, Green 3, Reform 1
Enfield, Bush Hill Park. Con 51, Lab 36, LD 7, Green 4, TTi 1, TUSC 1
Islington, Tollington. Lab 64, Green 20, LD 8, Con 8
Newark and Sherwood, Bridge. Ind 47, Con 24, Lab 22, LD 4, Green 3
NE Lincs, Heneage. Con 53, Lab 42, LD 3, TUSC 2
Stoke, Penkhull and Stoke. Lab 28, CitInd 39, Con 30, Green 3
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