Prediction Competition - July 2021

[Toylyyev]

East Devon DC,
Feniton: Conservative 48, Labour 3, Liberal Democrat 49.
Honiton St Michael’s: Conservative 44, Labour 51, Liberal Democrat 5.

East Suffolk DC, Aldeburgh and Leiston, top vote: Conservative 45, Labour 13, Green 41, Communist Party of Britain 1. One Conservative and one Green win.

Harlow DC, Mark Hall: Conservative 38, Labour 39, Liberal Democrat 4, Green 19.

Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots East: Conservative 24, Labour 9, Liberal Democrat 7, Green 24, Independent 36.

Mid Sussex DC, Ardingly and Balcombe: Conservative 44, Liberal Democrat 37, Green 15, Independent 4.

[andrewp]

East Devon. Feniton Con 52, LD 40, Lab 8
East Devon, Honiton St Michaels Con 49, Lab 38, LD 13
East Suffolk, Aldeburgh and Leiston Con 50, Green 33.5, Lab 16, Comm 0.5
Harlow. Mark Hall Con 55: Lab 31: LD 10, Green 4
Huntingdonshire, St Neots East. Ind 29, Con 28, Lab 20, LD 18, Green 5
Mid Sussex. Ardingly and Balcombe. Con 40, LD 35, Green 17, Ind 8

[greenhert]

East Devon DC, Feniton: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 45, Labour 5. Liberal Democrat gain from Independent.
East Devon DC, Honiton St Michaels: Con 50, Lib Dem 40, Lab 10.
East Suffolk DC, Aldeburgh & Leiston: Green 45, Con 42, Lab 12, Communist 1. (2xGreen gain from Conservative)
Harlow BC, Mark Hall: Con 50, Lab 37, LD 8, Green 5. Conservative gain from Labour.
Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots East: Con 32, Lab 28, Independent (Pitt) 24, Lib Dem 12, Green 4. Conservative gain from Labour.
Mid Sussex DC, Ardingly & Balcombe: Con 40, Lib Dem 32, Green 20, Independent (Steggles) 8.

[peterl]

Jul 7, 2021 16:35:12 GMT Toylyyev said:

Jul 7, 2021 14:46:53 GMT peterl said:

East Devon Feniton: C 48.2, LD 44.8, L 7.0
East Devon Honiton: LD 46.5, C 45.4, L 8.1
East Suffolk (top): C 44.2, G 34.7, L 19.1, Comm 2.0
Harlow: C 44.9, L 38.9, LD 10.1, G 6.1
Huntingdonshire: LD 33.5, L 32.2, C 25.1, G 9.2
Mid Sussex: LD 33.2, C 29.5, G 28.5, I 8.8

Zero points for the Independent in St Neots East? 

Thanks for pointing it out.

Revised prediction for Huntingdonshire: LD 29.7, I 23.5, L 22.2 C 15.4, G 9.2

[Robert Waller]

East Devon. Feniton Con 50, LD 45, Lab 5
East Devon, Honiton St Michaels Con 50, Lab 25, LD 25
East Suffolk, Aldeburgh and Leiston Con 49, Green 29, Lab 19, Comm 3 (two C wins)
Harlow. Mark Hall Con 59: Lab 29: LD 8, Green 4
Huntingdonshire, St Neots East. Ind 31, Con 29, Lab 22, LD 12, Green 6
Mid Sussex. Ardingly and Balcombe. Con 45, LD 25, Green 25, Ind 5

[rightleaning]

East Devon. Feniton C 54, LD 40, Lab 6
East Devon, Honiton St Michaels C 51, LD 43, Lab 6
East Suffolk, Aldeburgh and Leiston C 55, Gn 32, Lab 12, Comm 1
Harlow. Mark Hall C 59, Lab 25,LD 10, Gn 6
Huntingdonshire, St Neots East. C 30, Ind 29, Lab 20, LD 15, Gn 6
Mid Sussex. Ardingly and Balcombe. C 46, LD 30, Gn 19, Ind 5

[iainbhx]

Feniton, East Devon DC: Con 56 LDm 37 Lab 7
Honiton St Michaels, East Devon DC: LDm 44 Con 42 Lab 14
Aldeburgh and Leiston, East Suffolk DC: Con: 49 Grn 34 Lab 16 Comm 1 (Con win both)
Mark Hall, Harlow DC: Con 52 Lab 38 LDm 7 Grn 3
St Neots East, Huntingdonshire DC: Ind 28 Con 26 LDm 25 Lab 14 Grn 7
Ardingley & Balcombe, Mid Sussex DC: Con 48 LDm 27 Grn 21 Ind 4

[yellowperil]

East Devon, Feniton: Con 50,Lab 10, LD 40
East Devon, Honiton StMichaels: Con 47, Lab 16, LD 37
East Suffolk, Aldeburgh & Leiston:Con 45, Lab 14, GP 40, Comm 1 (CON x1, GPx1 win)
Harlow, Mark Hall: Con 50, Lab 35, LD 6, GP 9
Hunts, St Neots East: Con 22, Lab 24, LD 28, GP6, Ind 20
Mid Sussex, Ardingly& Balcombe: Con 43, LD35, GP14, Ind 8

[yellowperil]

Jul 8, 2021 5:03:00 GMT iainbhx said:

Feniton, East Devon DC: Con 56 LDm 37 Lab 7
Honiton St Michaels, East Devon DC: LDm 44 Con 42 Lab 14
Aldeburgh and Leiston, East Suffolk DC: Con: 49 Grn 34 Lab 16 Comm 1 (Con win both)
Mark Hall, Harlow DC: Con 52 Lab 38 Lab 7 Grn 3
St Neots East, Huntingdonshire DC: Ind 28 Con 26 LDm 25 Lab 14 Grn 7
Ardingley & Balcombe, Mid Sussex DC: Con 48 LDm 27 Grn 21 Ind 4

I guess one of the Labs in Mark Hall is supposed to be LD and I think I could guess which!

[iainbhx]

Jul 8, 2021 5:29:17 GMT yellowperil said:

Jul 8, 2021 5:03:00 GMT iainbhx said:

Feniton, East Devon DC: Con 56 LDm 37 Lab 7
Honiton St Michaels, East Devon DC: LDm 44 Con 42 Lab 14
Aldeburgh and Leiston, East Suffolk DC: Con: 49 Grn 34 Lab 16 Comm 1 (Con win both)
Mark Hall, Harlow DC: Con 52 Lab 38 Lab 7 Grn 3
St Neots East, Huntingdonshire DC: Ind 28 Con 26 LDm 25 Lab 14 Grn 7
Ardingley & Balcombe, Mid Sussex DC: Con 48 LDm 27 Grn 21 Ind 4

I guess one of the Labs in Mark Hall is supposed to be LD and I think I could guess which!

Thanks, not enough coffee when I did them.

[iang]

There seem to be some huge differences in predicting the Lab and LD votes in Honiton St Michael's. Anyone got word on the ground as to what might be happening?

[Richard Cromwell]

Feniton, East Devon

LD	56%
CON	43%
LAB	1%

Honiton St. Michael's, East Devon

LD	51%
CON	45%
LAB	4%

Aldeburgh & Leiston, East Suffolk

GRN	54%	Gain Both Seats
CON	35%
LAB	11%
Communist	0%

Mark Hall, Harlow

CON	41%
LAB	27%
GRN	17%
LD	15%

St. Neots East, Huntingdonshire

LD	39%
CON	25%
LAB	21%
GRN	14%
IND	1%

Adringly & Balcombe, Mid Sussex

GRN	38%
CON	30%
LD	27%
IND	5%

[andykernow]

East Devon - Feniton - CON Gain from Ind

Labour 23%
Conserative 45%
Lib Dem 32%

East Devon - Honiton - LD Hold

Labour 13%
Lib Dem 45%
Con 42%

East Suffolk - Con Hold
Green   6%
Labour 31%
Communist 1%
Conservative 62%

Harlow Mark Hall - Con Gain from Labour

Green 9%
Labour 31%
Lib Dem 22%
Conservative 38%

Huntingdon - Con gain from Labour
Conservative  33%
Green 10%  
Independent 4%
Lib Dem 21%
Labour 32%


Mid Sussex - Con Hold
Green 21%
Lib Dem 23%
Conservative 41%
Independent 15%

[yellowperil]

Jul 8, 2021 7:34:37 GMT iang said:

There seem to be some huge differences in predicting the Lab and LD votes in Honiton St Michael's. Anyone got word on the ground as to what might be happening?

Nothing that's reached me, but I spend less time trawling through the online undergrowth than some on here. I think the majority view on here is based on past records of the parties in this ward, which has had the Lib Dems reasonably strong here, mostly respectable second but a couple of odd wins, and Labour nowhere, except at the Lib Dem nadir of 2011 when one Lab candidate was just ahead of the LibDems doing very badly. I'm sure that is the basis that most of us have the LibDems "winning here" or back in that respectable second. So some others here have either got wind of something pretty extraordinary from Labour here or they are very confused. This is of course a Lib Dem defence of a seat where they just took a third place in the main election,and the Lib Dems are now junior partners in the administration, so anything is possible.

[andrewp]

Jul 8, 2021 8:09:53 GMT yellowperil said:

Jul 8, 2021 7:34:37 GMT iang said:

There seem to be some huge differences in predicting the Lab and LD votes in Honiton St Michael's. Anyone got word on the ground as to what might be happening?

Nothing that's reached me, but I spend less time trawling through the online undergrowth than some on here. I think the majority view on here is based on past records of the parties in this ward, which has had the Lib Dems reasonably strong here, mostly respectable second but a couple of odd wins, and Labour nowhere, except at the Lib Dem nadir of 2011 when one Lab candidate was just ahead of the LibDems doing very badly. I'm sure that is the basis that most of us have the LibDems "winning here" or back in that respectable second. So some others here have either got wind of something pretty extraordinary from Labour here or they are very confused. This is of course a Lib Dem defence of a seat where they just took a third place in the main election,and the Lib Dems are now junior partners in the administration, so anything is possible.

Im not confused but I see that I am an outlier so I might be terribly wrong! My prediction of a strong Labour performance there is based on the Labour candidate, who managed a very strong second from almost nowhere in the Honiton county division in May. He is very young (18/19) and on the town council and I think the founder of a Honiton food bank. He generally seems like a very active person. Of course it’s highly possible that he will drop down to 10% today and I will do terribly! Who knows.

[yellowperil]

Jul 8, 2021 8:39:52 GMT andrewp said:

Jul 8, 2021 8:09:53 GMT yellowperil said:

Nothing that's reached me, but I spend less time trawling through the online undergrowth than some on here. I think the majority view on here is based on past records of the parties in this ward, which has had the Lib Dems reasonably strong here, mostly respectable second but a couple of odd wins, and Labour nowhere, except at the Lib Dem nadir of 2011 when one Lab candidate was just ahead of the LibDems doing very badly. I'm sure that is the basis that most of us have the LibDems "winning here" or back in that respectable second. So some others here have either got wind of something pretty extraordinary from Labour here or they are very confused. This is of course a Lib Dem defence of a seat where they just took a third place in the main election,and the Lib Dems are now junior partners in the administration, so anything is possible.

Im not confused but I see that I am an outlier so I might be terribly wrong! My prediction of a strong Labour performance there is based on the Labour candidate, who managed a very strong second from almost nowhere in the Honiton county division in May. He is very young (18/19) and on the town council and I think the founder of a Honiton food bank. He generally seems like a very active person. Of course it’s highly possible that he will drop down to 10% today and I will do terribly! Who knows.

Obviously you're not confused, you're confused.com! I hadn't picked up he was that guy, so you may well be right.

[Robert Waller]

This was the Honiton and Feniton result for Devon county council in May:
www.devon.gov.uk/democracy/division2021/feniton-honiton/

I didn't quite have the courage of conviction of Andrew (or even more, Toylyyev), so I compromised between a personal vote and Labour standard showing in that area ...

[andrewp]

Labour activists in Exeter who’ve been out and about in Honiton

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week, with Pete Whitehead missing. Andykernow receives 15 (6x2.5) for posting 10 mins over the deadline, otherwise everyone was on time and correct.

Feniton, East Devon: 8 Conservative gain from Independent, with alien8ted, greenhert, Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain.
Honiton St Michael's, East Devon: 6 Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, with alien8ted, andykernow, iainbhx, peterl and Richard Cromwell Lib Dem hold, and Toylyyev Labour gain.
Aldeburgh and Leiston, East Suffolk: 10 Conservatives to finish first, of which 7 have them holding both seats, alien8ted, Toylyyev and yellowperil have the Greens gaining one. Greenhert and Richard Cromwell predict the Greens ahead and to gain both seats.
Mark Hall, Harlow: 11 Conservative gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 6% (peterl) to 34% (Right Leaning), Toylyyev Labour hold with a 1% majority over Conservative.
St Neots East, Huntingdonshire: 5 Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, with andrewp, iainbhx, Robert Waller and Toylyyev Independent gain, and andykernow, greenhert and Right Leaning Conservative gain.
Ardingly and Balcombe, Mid Sussex: 10 Conservative hold, with peterl Liberal Democrat gain and Richard Cromwell Green gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NzCgvXXQ_7HwGeEMVXHaewxF3OmLWcP11UfasGDspwc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[andrewp]

Looks like the voters in Feniton agreed with Susie Bond!