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Post by yellowperil on Jun 30, 2021 20:55:22 GMT
Chelmsford, Writtle: Con 45, Lab 8, LD 32, GP15
Elmbridge, Cobham & Downside: Con 50, Lab 10, LD 36, GP 3, RefUK 1
Enfield, Bush Hill Park: Con 55, Lab 29, LD 8, GP 6, TUSC 1 TIP1
Islington, Tollington:Con 6, Lab 64, LD 4, GP 26
Newark & Sherwood, Bridge: Con 24, Lab 15, LD 4, GP 2, Ind 55 ( Ind x2 wins)
NE Lincs, Heneage: Con 53, Lab 36, LD 9, TUSC 2
Stoke on Trent, Penkhull & Stoke: Con 26, Lab 28, GP 8, CInd 38.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 30, 2021 22:04:57 GMT
Chelmsford DC, Writtle: Conservative 56, Liberal Democrats 30, Green 9, Labour 5.
Elmbridge DC, Cobham & Downside: Con 58, Lib Dem 30, Lab 8, Green 3, Reform UK 1.
Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Con 47, Lab 39, Lib Dem 7, Green 5, TUSC 1, TIP 1.
Islington LBC, Tollington: Lab 60, Green 30, Con 6, LD 4.
Newark & Sherwood DC, Bridge: Independents (Bickerton & Darby, total): 57, Con 20, Lab 16, Green 4, LD 3.
North East Lincolnshire UA, Heneage: Con 53, Lab 39, LD 7, TUSC 1.
Stoke on Trent UA, Penkhull & Stoke: City Independents 34, Con 26, Lab 24, Green 16.
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Post by rightleaning on Jul 1, 2021 5:00:47 GMT
Chelmsford, Writtle, C 55, LD 35, Gn 6, Lab 4
Elmbridge, Cobham and Downside. C 61, LD 28, Lab 3, Gn 7, Reform 1
Enfield, Bush Hill Park. C 48, Lab 40, Gn 6, LD 4, TTi 1, TUSC 1
Islington, Tollington. Lab 62, Gn 24, LD 8, C 6
Newark and Sherwood, Bridge. Ind 45, C 25, Lab 21, LD 4, Gn 5
NE Lincs, Heneage. C 55, Lab 40, LD 4, TUSC 1
Stoke, Penkhull and Stoke. CitInd 38, Lab 30, C 27, Gn 5
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2021 5:06:12 GMT
Enfield LB - Bush Hill Park | Con | 48.0% | | Lab | 36.0% | | Grn | 8.4% | | LD | 6.8% | | TUSC | 0.4% | | TTIP | 0.4% |
Islington LB - Tollington | Lab | 63.3% | | Grn | 20.5% | | LD | 10.5% | | Con | 5.7% |
NE Lincolnshire UA - Heneage | Con | 47.4% | | Lab | 43.8% | | LD | 5.5% | | TUSC | 3.3% |
Stoke on Trent UA - Penkull & Stoke | City Ind | 40.8% | | Lab | 34.0% | | Con | 18.5% | | Grn | 6.7% |
Chelmsford CC - Writtle | Con | 53.9% | | LD | 29.2% | | Lab | 11.6% | | Grn | 5.3% |
Elmbridge BC - Cobham & Downside | Con | 58.7% | | LD | 26.4% | | Lab | 8.6% | | Ref | 3.4% | | Grn | 2.9% |
Newark & Sherwood DC - Bridge | Ind | 47.6% | | Con | 29.5% | | Lab | 17.9% | | LD | 2.8% | | Grn | 2.2% |
Edit: For the avoidance of any doubt, I am predicting the Independent slate win both seats in Newark |
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 1, 2021 5:27:09 GMT
Chelmsford DC, Writtle, Con 50, LDm 35, Lab 9, Grn 6
Elmbridge DC, Cobham and Downside. Con 50, LDm 36, Lab 7, Grn 5, Ref-UK 2
Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park. Con 49, Lab 35, Grn 9.5, LDm 5, TUSC 1, Initiative 0.5
Islington LBC, Tollington. Lab 61, Grn 22, LDm 10, Con 7
Newark and Sherwood DC, Bridge. Ind 38, Con 29, Lab 23, LDm 6, Grn 4 (2 Ind win)
NE Lincs UA, Heneage. Con 54, Lab 38, LDm 6, TUSC 2
Stoke UA, Penkhull and Stoke. Con 35, Lab 31, CityInd 28, Grn 6
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 1, 2021 8:36:39 GMT
Enfield LB - Bush Hill Park | Con | 48.0% | | Lab | 36.0% | | Grn | 8.4% | | LD | 6.8% | | TUSC | 0.4% | | TTIP | 0.4% |
Islington LB - Tollington | Lab | 63.3% | | Grn | 20.5% | | LD | 10.5% | | Con | 5.7% |
NE Lincolnshire UA - Heneage | Con | 47.4% | | Lab | 43.8% | | LD | 5.5% | | TUSC | 3.3% |
Stoke on Trent UA - Penkull & Stoke | City Ind | 40.8% | | Lab | 34.0% | | Con | 18.5% | | Grn | 6.7% |
Chelmsford CC - Writtle | Con | 53.9% | | LD | 29.2% | | Lab | 11.6% | | Grn | 5.3% |
Elmbridge BC - Cobham & Downside | Con | 58.7% | | LD | 26.4% | | Lab | 8.6% | | Ref | 3.4% | | Grn | 2.9% |
Newark & Sherwood DC - Bridge | Ind | 47.6% | | Con | 29.5% | | Lab | 17.9% | | LD | 2.8% | | Grn | 2.2% |
Edit: For the avoidance of any doubt, I am predicting the Independent slate win both seats in Newark Welcome back! You took your time! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 1, 2021 9:34:53 GMT
Yes, great to see Pete back!
The more the merrier ...
Did we have to nominate two winners in Newark Bridge as well as predict percentages? Anyway, 2 Independent wins in my view.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 1, 2021 10:22:54 GMT
To confirm mine was 2x Independent wins in Newark
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 1, 2021 20:09:17 GMT
13 entries to open the month, with Pete Whitehead making a very welcome return. I've not penalised anyone who predicted the 2x Independents win in Newark over the 9am deadline because I didn't specify you had to (though that would've been helpful if I had!). I've taken all entries as predicting a 2x Independent win. Andykernow didn't make a prediction for Stoke so receives 100 faults, Richard Cromwell receives 3 for going 2 over in Heneage and 1 under in Newark, and Tony Otim receives 0.1 faults for going slightly under in Heneage. Writtle, Chelmsford: 10 Conservative hold, with andykernow, peterl and Richard Cromwell Liberal Democrat gain. Cobhan and Downside, Elmbridge: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (Richard Cromwell) to 43% (Toylyyev). Bush Hill Park, Enfield: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (Richard Cromwell) to 31.6% (Tony Otim). Tollington, Islington: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 16% (Toylyyev) to 54.6% (Tony Otim). Bridge, Newark and Sherwood: 100% Independent win, with "top" majorities ranging from 8% (peterl) to 52% (Richard Cromwell). Heneage, North East Lincolnshire: 12 Conservative gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 3.6% (Pete Whitehead) to 29% (peterl and Richard Cromwell), andykernow Labour hold. Penkhull and Stoke, Stoke-on-Trent: 8 City Independent hold, andrewp, Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Labour gain, iainbhx Conservative gain. Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vj59M3WLSX6np-90Tm2K_04qO2k4nuxx7K_b-3fX6TM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 2, 2021 3:10:31 GMT
13 entries to open the month, with Pete Whitehead making a very welcome return. I've not penalised anyone who predicted the 2x Independents win in Newark over the 9am deadline because I didn't specify you had to (though that would've been helpful if I had!). I've taken all entries as predicting a 2x Independent win. Andykernow didn't make a prediction for Stoke so receives 100 faults, Richard Cromwell receives 3 for going 2 over in Heneage and 1 under in Newark, and Tony Otim receives 0.1 faults for going slightly under in Heneage. Writtle, Chelmsford: 10 Conservative hold, with andykernow, peterl and Richard Cromwell Liberal Democrat gain. Cobhan and Downside, Elmbridge: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (Richard Cromwell) to 43% (Toylyyev). Bush Hill Park, Enfield: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (Richard Cromwell) to 31.6% (Tony Otim). Tollington, Islington: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 16% (Toylyyev) to 54.6% (Tony Otim). Bridge, Newark and Sherwood: 100% Independent win, with "top" majorities ranging from 8% (peterl) to 52% (Richard Cromwell). Heneage, North East Lincolnshire: 12 Conservative gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 3.6% (Pete Whitehead) to 29% (peterl and Richard Cromwell), andykernow Labour hold. Penkhull and Stoke, Stoke-on-Trent: 8 City Independent hold, andrewp, Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Labour gain, iainbhx Conservative gain. Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vj59M3WLSX6np-90Tm2K_04qO2k4nuxx7K_b-3fX6TM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Looking at the results so far it appears that I've had about the luck one should expect for the 13th guest at the feast! |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 2, 2021 6:14:39 GMT
13 entries to open the month, with Pete Whitehead making a very welcome return. I've not penalised anyone who predicted the 2x Independents win in Newark over the 9am deadline because I didn't specify you had to (though that would've been helpful if I had!). I've taken all entries as predicting a 2x Independent win. Andykernow didn't make a prediction for Stoke so receives 100 faults, Richard Cromwell receives 3 for going 2 over in Heneage and 1 under in Newark, and Tony Otim receives 0.1 faults for going slightly under in Heneage. Writtle, Chelmsford: 10 Conservative hold, with andykernow, peterl and Richard Cromwell Liberal Democrat gain. Cobhan and Downside, Elmbridge: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (Richard Cromwell) to 43% (Toylyyev). Bush Hill Park, Enfield: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (Richard Cromwell) to 31.6% (Tony Otim). Tollington, Islington: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 16% (Toylyyev) to 54.6% (Tony Otim). Bridge, Newark and Sherwood: 100% Independent win, with "top" majorities ranging from 8% (peterl) to 52% (Richard Cromwell). Heneage, North East Lincolnshire: 12 Conservative gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 3.6% (Pete Whitehead) to 29% (peterl and Richard Cromwell), andykernow Labour hold. Penkhull and Stoke, Stoke-on-Trent: 8 City Independent hold, andrewp, Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Labour gain, iainbhx Conservative gain. Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vj59M3WLSX6np-90Tm2K_04qO2k4nuxx7K_b-3fX6TM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Looking at the results so far it appears that I've had about the luck one should expect for the 13th guest at the feast! I don't think any of us have exactly covered ourselves in glory this week.. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 2, 2021 6:18:32 GMT
We are of course waiting for Writtle to count this morning and for Newark Bridge ward to find the AWOL Labour vote. Writtle could be... interesting and Bridge could be another disaster of Fellbridge like proportions last month - we all pretty well got the new Indies as the annointed successors of the old onesand hugely overestimated them.All to play for, then, except we can only sit and wait .
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 2, 2021 13:37:23 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Jul 2, 2021 13:40:48 GMT
Much as I would like to claim to be closest in Writtle, I’m not sure the totals column is correct for that one? It doesn’t seem to be adding the other columns, unless I’m reading it wrong? |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 2, 2021 13:46:34 GMT
Much as I would like to claim to be closest in Writtle, I’m not sure the totals column is correct for that one? It doesn’t seem to be adding the other columns, unless I’m reading it wrong? Very good spot, now amended. There is a bit of a change in the rankings as a result but the top three remain unchanged. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 4, 2021 11:09:31 GMT
Posting early as am away this week, with zero confidence in any of these. Slightly tough bunch this week:
East Devon, Feniton: Con 46.2; LD 31.2; Lab 22.6
East Devon, Honiton St Michaels: Con 42.1; LD 31.4; Lab 26.5
East Suffolk: Con 51.9; Grn 25.8; Lab 20.8; Comm 1.5
Harlow: Con 56.8; Lab 35.2; LD 5.4; Grn 2.6
Huntingdonshire: LD 30.5; Con 28.0; Lab 20.9; Pitt 15.1; Grn 5.5
Mid Sussex: Con 40.7; Grn 28.3; LD 22.3; Steggles 8.7
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 5, 2021 15:47:32 GMT
OP is now updated following the publication of SOPNs for the 29th contests.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 6, 2021 9:42:45 GMT
Difficult set this week, so low confidence, as per TonyOtim
I've gone for a lot of close contests this week, hopefully it is that interesting.
EAST DEVON DC; Feniton
Liberal Democrat – 48.9%
Conservative – 48.1%
Labour – 3%
EAST DEVON DC; Honiton St Michael’s
Liberal Democrat - 48.1%
Conservative - 47.9%
Labour - 4%
EAST SUFFOLK DC; Aldeburgh & Leiston
Conservative – 42.9%
Green – 42.4%
Labour – 14.6%
Communist Party of Britain 0.1%
1x Conservative 1x Green
HARLOW DC; Mark Hall
Conservative – 54%
Labour – 28%
Liberal Democrat – 12%
Green – 6%
HUNTINGDONSHIRE DC; St Neots East
Liberal Democrat – 32.3%
Conservative – 32.1%
Labour – 31.1%
Green – 3.9%
PITT, Ben (Independent) – 0.6%
MID SUSSEX DC; Ardingly & Balcombe
Conservative -33.2%
Green – 32.1%
Liberal Democrat – 32%
STEGGLES, Carole Ann (Independent) – 2.7%
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jul 7, 2021 14:46:53 GMT
East Devon Feniton: C 48.2, LD 44.8, L 7.0
East Devon Honiton: LD 46.5, C 45.4, L 8.1
East Suffolk (top): C 44.2, G 34.7, L 19.1, Comm 2.0
Harlow: C 44.9, L 38.9, LD 10.1, G 6.1
Huntingdonshire: LD 33.5, L 32.2, C 25.1, G 9.2
Mid Sussex: LD 33.2, C 29.5, G 28.5, I 8.8
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Jul 7, 2021 16:35:12 GMT
East Devon Feniton: C 48.2, LD 44.8, L 7.0 East Devon Honiton: LD 46.5, C 45.4, L 8.1 East Suffolk (top): C 44.2, G 34.7, L 19.1, Comm 2.0 Harlow: C 44.9, L 38.9, LD 10.1, G 6.1 Huntingdonshire: LD 33.5, L 32.2, C 25.1, G 9.2 Mid Sussex: LD 33.2, C 29.5, G 28.5, I 8.8 Zero points for the Independent in St Neots East? |
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