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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 8, 2021 23:02:35 GMT
That’s what the council reckon: EDIT: As does the Local Democracy Reporter for Radio Exe: Why did Labour do so well in Honiton? Andrew’s preview mentioned a strong Labour showing in the county council division covering this ward in May. Could there be an Exeter effect - as property prices rise in the city, young professionals begin to move to neighbouring towns? There are other results from the same area (for example in the Central Devon parliamentary constituency, 2017) which seem to also show Labour doing well in Exeter's hinterland. |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 8, 2021 23:04:50 GMT
That’s what the council reckon: EDIT: As does the Local Democracy Reporter for Radio Exe: Why did Labour do so well in Honiton? Andrew’s preview mentioned a strong Labour showing in the county council division covering this ward in May. Partly, at least, explained by a very strong local candidate. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2021 23:04:55 GMT
Would appear Conservative have gained Markhall (note one word on the declaration paper), Harlow:
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 8, 2021 23:05:36 GMT
EAST DEVON Honiton St Michael’s BONETTA, Jake E (Labour) 807 JENNY, Brown* (Conservative) 522 HOYLES, Jules (Liberal Democrat) 63 807 for Labour and 63 for LDs? Are you sure? Some discussion in the second half of this page vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15353/prediction-competition-july-2021?page=3A good win for Jake Bonetta, just like St Neots East for the locally active Independent. These are local elections, after all! |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 8, 2021 23:09:16 GMT
I thought it would have been a old town councillor, involved in the town since decades, but apparently he did his A-Levels last month and is aged 18.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 8, 2021 23:17:23 GMT
Fact of the week: Jake Bonetta wasn't born when Labour last won a council seat on East Devon District Council.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 8, 2021 23:19:30 GMT
Why did Labour do so well in Honiton? Andrew’s preview mentioned a strong Labour showing in the county council division covering this ward in May. Could there be an Exeter effect - as property prices rise in the city, young professionals begin to move to neighbouring towns? There are other results from the same area (for example in the Central Devon parliamentary constituency, 2017) which seem to also show Labour doing well in Exeter's hinterland. Yes, but this effect is not merely confined to Exeter by any means-in fact it is much stronger around the ancient university cities of Oxford and Cambridge, although in both those cases the Liberal Democrats are stronger beneficiaries since it is combined with a London commuter effect. Brighton has a comparable effect on Lewes, Worthing and Shoreham, although in the latter two cases the decline of the formerly strong elderly population depresses the solid Conservative vote simultaneously. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 8, 2021 23:21:09 GMT
Sometimes there has been literally nothing done in these areas and there can be potential there but untapped.
However, if Labour can't take back the Mark Hall ward in Harlow, which is stereotypical of a white working class Labour ward, they still have a way to go
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Post by phil156 on Jul 8, 2021 23:26:00 GMT
Just 3 to go all Con defences
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 8, 2021 23:30:18 GMT
However, if Labour can't take back the Mark Hall ward in Harlow, which is stereotypical of a white working class Labour ward, they still have a way to go Or alternatively: Mark Hall ward saw the Conservatives poll just under twice as many votes as Labour in May, too much to overturn in two months; but Labour did extraordinarily well to cut the Conservative lead down to a narrow 50 votes. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 8, 2021 23:32:01 GMT
This is a partial result as there was an Independent candidate as well.
EDIT: No, it's not - it's an incorrect result. The Green Party won.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 8, 2021 23:37:02 GMT
Fact of the week: Jake Bonetta wasn't born when Labour last won a council seat on East Devon District Council. According to the Election Center, the history of Labour seats in East Devon is Exmouth Withycombe Urban in 1973 (Liberals only ran 2 candidates; Labour took the 3rd one) Exmouth Withycombe Urban in 1976 (Liberals took the 2 others seats) Sidmouth Woolbrook in 1979 for a 3 year term (election by thirds) Sidmouth Woolbrook in 1983 (taking back the seat lost in 1982) Sidmouth Woolbrook in 1987 (back to all-outs) Ottery St Mary Town in 1999 |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 8, 2021 23:41:10 GMT
Why did Labour do so well in Honiton? Andrew’s preview mentioned a strong Labour showing in the county council division covering this ward in May. I don’t wouldn’t hazard a guess, but oddly, according to Joe Ives’ Twitter commentary they were more hopeful in Feniton. That sounds unlikely- the outgong independent councillor for Feniton was scathing about the lack of any campaigning from Labour there. Of course, the previous strong county campaign by the same young Labour candidate for St Michaels had covered Feniton as well as Honiton, so they may have uncovered some potential there at that stage, and certainly the Labour vote in Feniton went up a bit, but I'm sure they were concentrating on St Michaels this time. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 8, 2021 23:41:35 GMT
MID SUSSEX Ardingly and Balcombe
EDWARDS, Jenny (Green) 452
NUNES-CARVALHO, Lorraine (Conservative) 409
JERRIT, Ben (Liberal Democrat) 340
STEGGLES, Carole Ann (Independent) 23
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2021 23:43:33 GMT
I don’t wouldn’t hazard a guess, but oddly, according to Joe Ives’ Twitter commentary they were more hopeful in Feniton. That sounds unlikely- the outgong independent councillor for Feniton was scathing about the lack of any campaigning from Labour there. Of course, the previous strong county campaign by the same young Labour candidate for St Michaels had covered Feniton as well as Honiton, so they may have uncovered some potential there at that stage, and certainly the Labour vote in Feniton went up a bit, but I'm sure they were concentrating on St Michaels this time. It may be they were hoping to capitalise on the LD’s candidate’s admission she’d done no campaigning, so usually LD voters would come over to somebody better known from the campaign? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 8, 2021 23:43:40 GMT
I don’t wouldn’t hazard a guess, but oddly, according to Joe Ives’ Twitter commentary they were more hopeful in Feniton. That sounds unlikely- the outgong independent councillor for Feniton was scathing about the lack of any campaigning from Labour there. Of course, the previous strong county campaign by the same young Labour candidate for St Michaels had covered Feniton as well as Honiton, so they may have uncovered some potential there at that stage, and certainly the Labour vote in Feniton went up a bit, but I'm sure they were concentrating on St Michaels this time. I think the Local Democracy Reporter (who is in his first week in the job so cut him some slack) was confusing the two wards. Note he refers here to a Liberal Democrat candidate for Feniton having done no campaigning - but the man he names was a candidate in Honiton St Michael's. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 8, 2021 23:43:52 GMT
I don’t wouldn’t hazard a guess, but oddly, according to Joe Ives’ Twitter commentary they were more hopeful in Feniton. That sounds unlikely- the outgong independent councillor for Feniton was scathing about the lack of any campaigning from Labour there. Of course, the previous strong county campaign by the same young Labour candidate for St Michaels had covered Feniton as well as Honiton, so they may have uncovered some potential there at that stage, and certainly the Labour vote in Feniton went up a bit, but I'm sure they were concentrating on St Michaels this time. Joe Ives corrected himself later. Also, it seems the Liberal Democrat in St Michaels seems to have told Joe Ives he did not campaign. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 8, 2021 23:46:02 GMT
That sounds unlikely- the outgong independent councillor for Feniton was scathing about the lack of any campaigning from Labour there. Of course, the previous strong county campaign by the same young Labour candidate for St Michaels had covered Feniton as well as Honiton, so they may have uncovered some potential there at that stage, and certainly the Labour vote in Feniton went up a bit, but I'm sure they were concentrating on St Michaels this time. I think the Local Democracy Reporter (who is in his first week in the job so cut him some slack) was confusing the two wards. Note he refers here to a Liberal Democrat candidate for Feniton having done no campaigning - but the man he names was a candidate in Honiton St Michael's. Some of them will see no by-elections for months, he gets the job a few days before multiple ones. Rough start. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2021 23:46:04 GMT
That sounds unlikely- the outgong independent councillor for Feniton was scathing about the lack of any campaigning from Labour there. Of course, the previous strong county campaign by the same young Labour candidate for St Michaels had covered Feniton as well as Honiton, so they may have uncovered some potential there at that stage, and certainly the Labour vote in Feniton went up a bit, but I'm sure they were concentrating on St Michaels this time. Joe Ives corrected himself later. Also, it seems the Liberal Democrat in St Michaels seems to have told Joe Ives he did not campaign. Sorry, my Twitter’s crashed, I didn’t see the correction. It must be a night for corrections down there as the council initially Tweeted a LD win in Feniton. |
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Post by phil156 on Jul 8, 2021 23:48:26 GMT
The two wards in East Suffolk must be counting tomorrow I should think
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