timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 9, 2021 8:28:23 GMT
It appears the result in Aldeburgh and Leiston was one Green Party and one Conservative (with the second Green Party candidate being only two votes behind). Still checking for the full result. This appears to confirm that: |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 9, 2021 8:33:56 GMT
Well it doesn't confirm it, because that's where I got it from.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 9, 2021 8:35:56 GMT
It appears the result in Aldeburgh and Leiston was one Green Party and one Conservative (with the second Green Party candidate being only two votes behind). Still checking for the full result. maybe, at last, something I got right this week! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 9, 2021 8:37:13 GMT
EAST SUFFOLK Aldeburgh and Leiston
DALY, Thomas (Green Party) 1,110
RAINGER, Russell Trevor (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,103
OAKLEY, Matthew Peter (Green Party) 1,101
REID, Andrew (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,006
ILETT, Ian (Labour Party) 355
TURNER, Mark William (Labour Party) 311
MARSLING, Stephen William (Communist Party of Britain) 61
Turnout: 26.6%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2021 8:38:35 GMT
Why did Labour do so well in Honiton? Andrew’s preview mentioned a strong Labour showing in the county council division covering this ward in May. Could there be an Exeter effect - as property prices rise in the city, young professionals begin to move to neighbouring towns? There are other results from the same area (for example in the Central Devon parliamentary constituency, 2017) which seem to also show Labour doing well in Exeter's hinterland. That'll be part of it, although I think there's another factor: Labour have somewhat of a surplus of activists in the area while the Lib Dems are overstretched, and Labour have mastered Lib Dem style local (but not necessarily hyper-localist) campaigning around here. Obviously in yesterday's by-election the Lib Dems were the incumbent and probably could have mustered the effort, but a) in 2019 anyone with a non-blue rosette could get elected in eastern Devon with a relatively small amount of effort and b) while the Lib Dems may have been able to put effort in for the by-election if they wanted to, as already mentioned Labour were clear second in the County division that covers the ward, no doubt partly because the Lib Dems just didn't have the resources to campaign there while Labour did. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2021 8:40:35 GMT
EAST SUFFOLK Aldeburgh and Leiston DALY, Thomas (Green Party) 1,110 RAINGER, Russell Trevor (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,103 OAKLEY, Matthew Peter (Green Party) 1,101 REID, Andrew (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,006 ILETT, Ian (Labour Party) 355 TURNER, Mark William (Labour Party) 311 MARSLING, Stephen William (Communist Party of Britain) 61 Turnout: 26.6% I wonder what was larger: the margin between 2nd and 3rd or the number of Conservative/Communist split ballots? |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 9, 2021 8:40:42 GMT
Could there be an Exeter effect - as property prices rise in the city, young professionals begin to move to neighbouring towns? There are other results from the same area (for example in the Central Devon parliamentary constituency, 2017) which seem to also show Labour doing well in Exeter's hinterland. That'll be part of it, although I think there's another factor: Labour have somewhat of a surplus of activists in the area while the Lib Dems are overstretched, and Labour have mastered Lib Dem style local (but not necessarily hyper-localist) campaigning around here. Obviously in yesterday's by-election the Lib Dems were the incumbent and probably could have mustered the effort, but a) in 2019 anyone with a non-blue rosette could get elected in eastern Devon with a relatively small amount of effort and b) while the Lib Dems may have been able to put effort in for the by-election if they wanted to, as already mentioned Labour were clear second in the County division that covers the ward, no doubt partly because the Lib Dems just didn't have the resources to campaign there while Labour did. Pretty much no Labour tradition here though - it's been a Con-Lib choice - but it does appear that LD strength in the SW has declined. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 9, 2021 8:54:42 GMT
It appears the result in Aldeburgh and Leiston was one Green Party and one Conservative (with the second Green Party candidate being only two votes behind). Still checking for the full result. This appears to confirm that: I have been enjoying looking through all that stuff from the GLI group behind the pic of the green candidate standing in front of Sizewell. GLI I now realise stands for Green/ LiberalDemocrat /Independent, and I wish a few more places could get together as harmoniously as that - in so many places I find it's the Greens who are too prickly to make it work. And I do like the pic of one person standing in front of their village sign so it reads something like "please drive car through our village" which I think might have been best avoided.  |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 9, 2021 8:56:28 GMT
East Devon: Feniton - Conservative gain from Independent| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | | Conservative | 239 | 53.5% | +40.9% | | Labour | 126 | 28.2% | +23.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 82 | 18.3% | from nowhere | | Elected Independent |
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| -82.6% | | Total votes | 447 |
| 58% |
Swing: Not meaningful Council now: 22 Conservative, 15 Independent, 13 East Devon Alliance, 7 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Labour East Devon: Honiton St Michael - Labour gain from Liberal Democrat| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | since 2016 B * | since 2015 "top" * | since 2015 "average" * | | Labour | 807 | 58.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| +36.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 522 | 37.5% | -15.5% | -12.3% |
| -2.3% | -2.0% | -2.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 63 | 4.5% | -42.5% | -45.7% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -23.2% | -19.5% | -20.1% | | UKIP |
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| -15.4% | -20.7% | -19.1% | | East Devon Alliance |
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| -20.4% | -21.1% | | Total votes | 1,392 |
| 93% | 100% |
| 153% | 39% | 41% |
* minor boundary changes in 2019 Swing: Not meaningful Council now: 22 Conservative, 15 Independent, 13 East Devon Alliance, 7 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Labour East Suffolk: Aldeburgh & Leiston - 1 Conservative hold, 1 Green gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes
1st | 2021 votes
2nd | 2021 votes
total | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Green | 1,110 | 1,101 | 2,211 | 43.8% | +27.5% | +29.1% | | Conservative | 1,103 | 1,006 | 2,109 | 41.8% | +13.0% | +12.4% | | Labour | 355 | 311 | 666 | 13.2% | -5.8% | -5.0% | | Communist | 61 |
| 61 | 1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independents |
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| -26.2% | -27.1% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -9.8% | -10.5% | | Total votes | 2,629 | 2,418 | 5,047 |
| 57% | 62% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 7¼% / 8¼% since 2019 Council now: 38 Conservative, 7 Labour, 5 Green, 3 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent, 1 vacancy Harlow: Mark Hall - Conservative gain from Labour| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | | Conservative | 549 | 46.4% | -14.6% | +23.2% | +13.4% | +23.4% | | Labour | 493 | 41.7% | +9.8% | -0.9% | -8.2% | -2.7% | | Green | 86 | 7.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 55 | 4.6% | -2.4% | -5.0% | -3.3% | -1.5% | | UKIP |
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| -24.6% | -9.2% | -26.5% | | Total votes | 1,183 |
| 70% | 82% | 78% | 70% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 12½% since May but Labour to Conservative 12% since 2019, 10¾% since 2018 and 13% since 2016 Council now: 21 Conservative, 12 Labour Huntingdonshire: St Neots East - Independent gain from Labour| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Independent | 249 | 42.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 196 | 33.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 68 | 11.6% | -15.9% | -20.4% | | Conservative | 47 | 8.0% | -24.0% | -23.7% | | Labour | 26 | 4.4% | -36.0% | -31.8% | | Total votes | 586 |
| 69% | 80% |
Swing: Not meaningful Council now: 30 Conservative, 10 Independent Group, 7 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 2 Independent Mid Sussex: Ardingley & Balcombe - Green gain from Conservative - amended result as wrong winner initially reported| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Green | 452 | 36.9% | +13.6% | +12.9% | +16.9% | +16.8% | | Conservative | 409 | 33.4% | -5.6% | -5.6% | -13.6% | -13.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 340 | 27.8% | +1.0% | +2.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 23 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour |
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| -10.9% | -11.3% | -15.7% | -15.8% | | Previous Independent |
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| -17.2% | -17.3% | | Total votes | 1,224 |
| 70% | 72% | 35% | 36% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 9½% /9¼% since 2019 and 15¼% / 15% since 2015
Council now: 34 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 3 Independent
So 7 seats contested in 6 wards with only the second seat in the 2 vacancy ward being retained by the defending party, then only narrowly:
* Conservatives retain 1, gain 2 (1 each from Labour and and Independent) and lose 2 (to Greens)
* Labour gain 1 from Liberal Democrat but loose 2 (1 each to a Conservative and an Independent)
* Liberal Democrats lose 1 to Labour
* Greens gain 2 from Conservatives
* Independents gain 1 from Labour and lose 1 to a Conservative
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 9, 2021 9:06:33 GMT
Mark Hall (which is incidentally where my father spent his early childhood) is certainly somewhere Labour needs to win to have a shot at the Harlow seat, but I suspect if we do win the seat again it won't be down to restoring our old margins there so much as narrowing the gap in the Tory parts of the seat.
Mind you, Harlow itself is moving down the target list in Essex and I don't see that changing without a lot more housebuilding in the area.
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Post by arnieg on Jul 9, 2021 9:11:12 GMT
EAST SUFFOLK Aldeburgh and Leiston DALY, Thomas (Green Party) 1,110 RAINGER, Russell Trevor (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,103 OAKLEY, Matthew Peter (Green Party) 1,101 REID, Andrew (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,006 ILETT, Ian (Labour Party) 355 TURNER, Mark William (Labour Party) 311 MARSLING, Stephen William (Communist Party of Britain) 61 Turnout: 26.6% I see the successful Tory describes himself as a "human performance practitioner" |
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Post by michael2019 on Jul 9, 2021 9:13:48 GMT
An interesting night with 6 seats switching hands (and almost 7) out of 7!
A very good night for the Greens with almost 3 gains! And some stonking increases in votes.
Conversely a poor night for the Tories losing votes in most places and only really gaining votes where an independent didn't stand this time
Interesting times?
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 9, 2021 9:28:09 GMT
Mark Hall (which is incidentally where my father spent his early childhood) is certainly somewhere Labour needs to win to have a shot at the Harlow seat, but I suspect if we do win the seat again it won't be down to restoring our old margins there so much as narrowing the gap in the Tory parts of the seat. Mind you, Harlow itself is moving down the target list in Essex and I don't see that changing without a lot more housebuilding in the area. I think that's unlikely. Harlow's middle class areas attract the Daily Mail middle classes, not social progressives And the last housebuilding programme created the Church Langley ward which is full of exactly those sort of people and is impregnably Tory |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2021 9:35:47 GMT
The result in Harlow was still a substantial swing back to Labour in just two months.
At the very least, it suggests that May's results could turn out to be a historic Tory "high" in some places where they did outstandingly well then.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 9, 2021 9:38:33 GMT
Mark Hall (which is incidentally where my father spent his early childhood) is certainly somewhere Labour needs to win to have a shot at the Harlow seat, but I suspect if we do win the seat again it won't be down to restoring our old margins there so much as narrowing the gap in the Tory parts of the seat. Mind you, Harlow itself is moving down the target list in Essex and I don't see that changing without a lot more housebuilding in the area. I think that's unlikely. Harlow's middle class areas attract the Daily Mail middle classes, not social progressives And the last housebuilding programme created the Church Langley ward which is full of exactly those sort of people and is impregnably Tory The BCE boundary proposals would also extend the Harlow constituency further out into the countryside, further increasing the Tory majority. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 9, 2021 9:40:22 GMT
An interesting night with 6 seats switching hands (and almost 7) out of 7! A very good night for the Greens with almost 3 gains! And some stonking increases in votes. Conversely a poor night for the Tories losing votes in most places and only really gaining votes where an independent didn't stand this time Interesting times? Plus Tory gain from Lab in Harlow. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2021 9:40:56 GMT
I think that's unlikely. Harlow's middle class areas attract the Daily Mail middle classes, not social progressives And the last housebuilding programme created the Church Langley ward which is full of exactly those sort of people and is impregnably Tory The BCE boundary proposals would also extend the Harlow constituency further out into the countryside, further increasing the Tory majority. Which is slightly unusual, given that the trend in these sorts of seats has tended to be the other way. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 9, 2021 9:44:18 GMT
An interesting night with 6 seats switching hands (and almost 7) out of 7! A very good night for the Greens with almost 3 gains! And some stonking increases in votes. Conversely a poor night for the Tories losing votes in most places and only really gaining votes where an independent didn't stand this time Interesting times? Plus Tory gain from Lab in Harlow. No, a Tory hold.... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2021 9:46:03 GMT
It was a gain, two months ago was the first time the Tories had ever won that ward.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 9, 2021 9:46:05 GMT
The BCE boundary proposals would also extend the Harlow constituency further out into the countryside, further increasing the Tory majority. Which is slightly unusual, given that the trend in these sorts of seats has tended to be the other way. Is it under-sized? I assume the new town area remains intact? |
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