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Post by Merseymike on Jul 11, 2021 15:49:05 GMT
That was her job, and Government policy, though. Pretty much universally agreed within the government at the time. In retrospect one has to wonder why no one in the goverment raised the alarm bells that the immingration policy was a bit too "loose" compared to the rest of the EU to say the least.... On one level it made sense as it meant the initial rush coincided with the economic boom. Had there been limited numbers initially it may just have delayed the inevitable - given that Poles were always going to head here. Our gardener and wife arrived in that initial batch, still here with a thriving business and mortgage |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 19, 2021 13:02:16 GMT
How many MP vs MP selection fights do you think Labour would have in Wales?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 19, 2021 14:20:41 GMT
In the north the Tories will be much more affected, given how badly we did in 2019. Llanelli might get more marginal, but assuming they assign two whole seats to Carmarthenshire then it won't be an incumbent v. incumbent fight. In West Glamorgan a seat will be lost, and they're all Labour at present. In Mid-Glamorgan there will four and a half seats where there are currently six, although there's at least a possibility that somebody will choose to go up against Jamie Wallis rather than go for a selection fight. South Glamorgan probably holds steady, but depending on the boundaries we get an incumbent v. incumbent fight isn't impossible anyway. Gwent will drop from 8 and a bit seats to 6, so that's 2 selection fights for Labour (assuming nobody retires.)
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Post by rcronald on Jul 19, 2021 14:35:22 GMT
In the north the Tories will be much more affected, given how badly we did in 2019. Llanelli might get more marginal, but assuming they assign two whole seats to Carmarthenshire then it won't be an incumbent v. incumbent fight. In West Glamorgan a seat will be lost, and they're all Labour at present. In Mid-Glamorgan there will four and a half seats where there are currently six, although there's at least a possibility that somebody will choose to go up against Jamie Wallis rather than go for a selection fight. South Glamorgan probably holds steady, but depending on the boundaries we get an incumbent v. incumbent fight isn't impossible anyway. Gwent will drop from 8 and a bit seats to 6, so that's 2 selection fights for Labour (assuming nobody retires.) I would be shocked if one of odd ones out in North Wales isn’t Roberts my guess is that Baynes will easily defeat him even if Roberts has 90% of the constituency. I would also guess that Millar will be the second one out. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 19, 2021 15:22:53 GMT
Given how small most of the seats in Clwyd are and that all of them are at least somewhat marginal, I'm not sure any of them will be sitting comfortably. Equally, even where MPs are squeezed out of one contest they will probably also have a second seat that they will have a shot at.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 19, 2021 15:39:48 GMT
Given how small most of the seats in Clwyd are and that all of them are at least somewhat marginal, I'm not sure any of them will be sitting comfortably. Equally, even where MPs are squeezed out of one contest they will probably also have a second seat that they will have a shot at. are the Tories really going to let Rob Roberts run? |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 19, 2021 14:19:10 GMT
The Labour head to heads based on Welsh proposals would be
Newport East: Jessica Morden vs Ruth Jones
Newport West: Wayne David vs Ruth Jones
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare: Gerald Jones vs Beth Winter
Pontypridd: Alex Davies-Jones vs Beth Winter
Swansea Central and North: Carolyn Harris vs Geraint Davies
Swansea West and Gower: Tonia Antoniazzi vs Geraint Davies
Chris Elmore would get the new Bridgend.
Christina Rees would have a free run for Swansea East & Neath as Harries has less than 40% going there.
If the proposals survive, given some names mentioned, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of retirements.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Nov 9, 2022 17:49:57 GMT
Using Electoral Calculus calculations of make ups of proposed constituencies, the selection battles for sitting Labour MPs should be (if they keep the 40% of current seat going into the one as their definition of substantial territorial claim)
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West: Chi Onwurah vs Catherine McKinnell * McKinnell is the only one with a claim on Newcastle upon Tyne North
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend: Mary Glindon vs Nick Brown (if he is re-admitted)
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough: Justin Madders va Allison McGovern
Gorton and Denton: Afzal Khan vs Andrew Gwynne (39.4% but highest share going here as the seat is basically split in three parts)* But Khan would get Manchester Rusholme as the only claimant.
Lambeth Central: Bell Ribeiro-Addy vs Florence Eshalomi *But Eshalomi is the only one with a claim on Vauxhall.
Streatham and Norbury: Bell Ribeiro-Addy vs Steve Reed * Reed is the only one with a claim on Croydon West and South Norwood
In Lambeth/Croydon, they fit all all of them leaving even a seat for a newcomer
I guess there may be some retirements in NE to fit all of them. Both Brown and Glindon are contenders for retirement at next GE
In Manchester they can fit both Khan and Gwynne.
It may go down to Madders and McGovern as the only selection vote between sitting MPs.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Nov 9, 2022 21:17:27 GMT
Using Electoral Calculus calculations of make ups of proposed constituencies, the selection battles for sitting Labour MPs should be (if they keep the 40% of current seat going into the one as their definition of substantial territorial claim) Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West: Chi Onwurah vs Catherine McKinnell * McKinnell is the only one with a claim on Newcastle upon Tyne North Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend: Mary Glindon vs Nick Brown (if he is re-admitted) Ellesmere Port and Bromborough: Justin Madders va Allison McGovern Gorton and Denton: Afzal Khan vs Andrew Gwynne (39.4% but highest share going here as the seat is basically split in three parts)* But Khan would get Manchester Rusholme as the only claimant. Lambeth Central: Bell Ribeiro-Addy vs Florence Eshalomi *But Eshalomi is the only one with a claim on Vauxhall. Streatham and Norbury: Bell Ribeiro-Addy vs Steve Reed * Reed is the only one with a claim on Croydon West and South Norwood In Lambeth/Croydon, they fit all all of them leaving even a seat for a newcomer I guess there may be some retirements in NE to fit all of them. Both Brown and Glindon are contenders for retirement at next GE In Manchester they can fit both Khan and Gwynne. It may go down to Madders and McGovern as the only selection vote between sitting MPs. And what is going on there? The recent stuff about Williamson has burned through in public over a few days. Yet nothing is coming out about Nick Brown. Presumably it will surface before there's a head to head. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Nov 9, 2022 21:53:05 GMT
Christina Rees would have a free run for Swansea East & Neath as Harries has less than 40% going there. If the proposals survive, given some names mentioned, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of retirements. I wouldn't be surprised if the Moment of Madness weren't one of the retirements, to be honest. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 24, 2022 14:42:52 GMT
Yorkshire and the Humber
Seat abolished with no obvious successor
Andrew Percy (Con, Brigg & Goole)
Seat changes party
(using Electoral Calculus's notionals for now)
Kim Leadbeater (Lab, Batley & Spen)
Mark Eastwood (Con, Dewsbury)
Emma Hardy (Lab, Hull West & Hessle)
The two Labour MPs may well think they can hold on. Dewsbury & Batley looks hopeless for the Tories (and might be another option for Leadbeater, though she doesn't get a 40% claim) but Eastwood might consider Wakefield West & Denby Dale.
Seat abolished or heavily redrawn but has obvious successor
(a little subjective what gets included here)
Alec Shelbrooke (Con, Elmet & Rothwell). The obvious successor is Wetherby & Easingwold, but it contains well under half of the current constituency.
Rachel Reeves (Lab, Leeds West). The obvious choice is the new Pudsey.
Stuart Andrew (Con, Pudsey). The obvious choice is the new Leeds North West.
Alex Sobel (Lab, Leeds North West). The obvious choice is the new Headingley.
Simon Lightwood (Lab, Wakefield). The constituency is split in two, and the new Wakefield looks the more attractive for a Labour MP.
The shuffle in north-west Leeds works out OK for all concerned.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Nov 24, 2022 16:05:04 GMT
North East
Seats abolished with no obvious or contested successor:
Mary Glindon (Lab, North Tyneside) - The plurality of her constituency goes into ‘Newcastle East and Wallsend’, which is safer and where she is based, but Nick Brown has a better claim. About 1/3 also goes into ‘Cramlington and Killingworth’ which EC has as notionally Labour (presumably marginally).
Nick Brown (Lab, Newcastle East) - ‘Newcastle East and Wallsend’ is the clear successor to his seat, but Mary Glindon would presumably prefer it and also has a claim.
Chi Onwurah (Lab, Newcastle Central) - Clear successor is ‘Newcastle Central and West’ but Catherine McKinnell also has a claim on it.
Catherine McKinnell (Lab, Newcastle North) - Has a claim on both ‘Newcastle Central and West’ and ‘Newcastle North’. She’s based in the former but Chi Onwurah has a better claim and there’s no sitting MP who would contest North so the latter seems the logical choice.
Seats changing party/becoming marginal:
Ian Levy (Con, Blyth Valley) - Blyth goes into ‘Blyth and Ashington’ which is notionally comfortably Labour, while most of the seat (Cramlington + Seaton Valley) goes into ‘Cramlington and Killingworth’ which EC has as notionally Labour (presumably marginally).
Richard Holden (Con, North West Durham) - Clear plurality goes into ‘Blaydon and Consett’ which is comfortably notionally Labour, the rest is divided between 4 different constituencies. Just over 1/4 goes into comfortably notionally Conservative ‘Bishop Auckland’, but there’s already an MP there with a much better claim.
Paul Howell (Con, Sedgefield) - Clear successor in ‘Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor’, but most of the majority is knocked off with the loss of rural Darlington.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 24, 2022 16:50:52 GMT
Brown has got the whip suspended and it's not certain he'll get it back. Plus he's been in Parliament since 1983 so there must be a decent chance he'll stand down at the next election.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 24, 2022 19:31:09 GMT
Scottish Highlands are going to be very weird. Inverness-shire and Wester Ross will contain the majority of the seats of two current SNP MPs:
50% of Ross, Skye, and Lochaber, whose MP is the SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford, and 60% of Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch, and Strathspey, whose MP is Drew Hendry. One of those will have to be pushed out into a neighbouring seat, both of which are nominally SNP:
43% of Ross, Skye, and Lochaber goes to an expanded Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross, whose MP is the Lib Dem Jamie Stone. This will still be competitive so I expect Blackford would try to avoid this option and to push Hendry to be the one to move seats to:
37% of Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch, and Strathspey becomes Nairn, Strathspey and Moray West, along with 67% of Moray, whose MP is Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross. The new seat is nominally SNP and I can hardly see Ross standing for it; given that Ross is also an MSP it feels likely that he simply won't stand for reelection in the next Westminster election.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 25, 2022 19:39:57 GMT
North East Seats changing party/becoming marginal:Richard Holden (Con, North West Durham) - Clear plurality goes into ‘Blaydon and Consett’ which is comfortably notionally Labour, the rest is divided between 4 different constituencies. Just over 1/4 goes into comfortably notionally Conservative ‘Bishop Auckland’, but there’s already an MP there with a much better claim. Dehenna Davison, the Bishop Auckland MP, has just announced she's standing down next election, which should leave Richard Holden with a run at that seat. Still will be a challenge for the Tories to hold in this national environment. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 9, 2023 16:11:02 GMT
Has Bill Cash announced if he is standing again? Stone is being divided up five ways and splits as follows:
10k to Staffordshire Moorlands (Cheadle)
20k to Stoke South (Barlaston and Blythe Bridge)
20k to Stafford (Shropshire border)
17k to Stone & Great Wyrley (Stone proper)
2k to Newcastle under Lyme (Madeley)
The only one of those that is vacant is Stone & Great Wyrley and it's by far the safest of those five, but both Gavin Williamson and Theo Clarke donate more electors to the seat. Clarke might want to rat-run from Stafford in current conditions and Williamson is likely to face a challenge from Mike Wood for Kingswinford & South Staffs, so might want this as a backup.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 9, 2023 20:32:38 GMT
Here in Wales, I think it is very likely that Stephen Crabb (Preseli) will try for Mid and South Pembrokeshire which will leave the Chief Whip of the party (Simon Hart) to either lose in Carmarthen or be sent to the Lords.
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Post by swindonlad on Feb 26, 2023 16:34:00 GMT
Robert Buckland in Swindon South with the proposed transfers to East Wiltshire are the areas that are most heavily Tory, so, forgetting any polling swing to Labour it would almost certainly change hands.
Now, his saving position could be, he lives in East Wiltshire whereas the Devizes MP doesn't
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Post by batman on Feb 26, 2023 17:22:07 GMT
Buckland's perhaps a bit moderate to win a selection battle against Danny Kruger.
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Post by aargauer on Feb 26, 2023 21:14:19 GMT
Buckland's perhaps a bit moderate to win a selection battle against Danny Kruger. Tory party battles tend to be more personality driven than ideology except in extreme examples. |
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