Which MPs are in trouble from the boundary review?

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 26, 2023 21:14:19 GMT aargauer said:

Feb 26, 2023 17:22:07 GMT batman said:

Buckland's perhaps a bit moderate to win a selection battle against Danny Kruger.

Tory party battles tend to be more personality driven than ideology except in extreme examples.

But that doesn't really help when one candidate has previously represented the majority of members voting, whereas the other has only represented a handful. Unless Kruger has a reputation as a complete arsehole amongst local members, Buckland would still be on a hiding to nothing.

[nyx]

In Wales, is there a chance Ruth Jones (Newport West) goes for Monmouthshire? Considering that her existing seat is being split in two, that she has stood for Monmouth in the past, and that Monmouthshire would likely fall to Labour in a Labour victory scenario, it seems like the obvious choice.

[The Bishop]

Or given her age, she *could* just decide to retire.

[LDCaerdydd]

If she wants to run again, (she only became an MP in March 2019) she should absolutely go for Newport West again.

Next door in Caerphilly Wayne David has already announced he’s off, so that gives some breathing room for Labour.

[Clark]

Sir Graham Brady stepping down - I think he knows the writing is on the wall in his seat

[andrea]

Mar 6, 2023 16:49:09 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

If she wants to run again, (she only became an MP in March 2019) she should absolutely go for Newport West again.
Next door in Caerphilly Wayne David has already announced he’s off, so that gives some breathing room for Labour.

There will possibly be a selection contest between her and Chris Evans for that new seat

In the first proposals, she was luckier because she would have got Newport West & Caerphilly merged constituency (with just a trigger ballot) on the back of David's retirement. She can eventually contest the open selection in Caerphilly though.

On the last point, Darren William's report about Welsh Executive Committee December meeting

The next item was a paper on Resolving MP Candidate Claims. This set out a procedure, for selecting parliamentary candidates under the proposed new boundaries, whereby Labour MPs for current constituencies would have certain rights to be considered for selection for those new seats for which they wished to stand, depending on the percentage of their current constituency’s population that would be incorporated in the new constituency. The General Secretary pointed out that, while the party’s response to the boundary review was not devolved to Wales, selection procedures are devolved and there are several points in the proposed process where the WEC would have a degree of discretion in the application of the rules.

...

With regard to the point about finding seats for reselected MPs, she [the General Secretary] explained that this was intended to indicate that sitting MPs would be given priority over new candidates. She was also asked about the omission of Caerphilly – where the incumbent is stepping down – from the list of new selections for current seats, with the implication that this would be resolved under the procedure for allocating MPs to the new boundaries; the CLP wanted an open selection a.s.a.p. and it had been agreed at the previous meeting that Welsh Labour officers would discuss this with the CLP officers, which hadn’t yet happened. The General Secretary apologised for this and said that a meeting with the CLP would take place as soon as possible.


I mean, the key is the "percentage" they are intending to use for territorial claims. In the past Labour used 40%. May be lower this time but as low as allowing Evans claiming Caerphilly (24% of his current electorate going there)?

[where2travel]

Mar 8, 2023 13:10:45 GMT Clark said:

Sir Graham Brady stepping down - I think he knows the writing is on the wall in his seat

Yes, and I wonder whether not having Brady as the Tory candidate make make it that little bit harder for them to have a chance of holding on too.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 8, 2023 13:10:45 GMT Clark said:

Sir Graham Brady stepping down - I think he knows the writing is on the wall in his seat

Discussed (correctly) on the retiring MPs thread. Whatever his reasons for standing down, the boundary review is not one of them (unless he was holding out for some favourable boundary changes to save him - Altrincham, Knutsford & Lymm perhaps..)