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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 10:14:15 GMT
There is no guarantee the "new" Batley seat will survive the consultation period, and even if it does Leadbeater might fancy her chances in a more "normal" electoral situation. Plus she fairly clearly wants to represent her "own" area and would have little interest in "carpet-bagging" to somewhere notionally safer. First of all, I said she might.Secondly, she is from Heckmonwicke which would be in Dewsbury and is therefore not a carpet-bagger even if she did chicken run to Dewsbury. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 10, 2021 10:20:41 GMT
What I was saying is that I would be suprised if Phillipson went to Washington before Durham given the current situation. I suppose it may depend on how prominent the EU issue is - has she gone full-on rejoin or is he being loyal? Certainly her stance appeared to be considerably separate from her leave voting seat - not so much being a Remainer but the level of fervour.... Though it's worth pointing out that while it would be much closer, the proposed City of Durham seat is far from a Remain banker, because of how strongly Leave voting Houghton and Hetton were. Electoral Calculus has it as 50-50, and my estimates have it as 51.6% Leave. A fervent Remainer might go down well in certain areas within Durham city, but that's just one part of the constituency. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 10, 2021 10:24:25 GMT
In "normal trouble":
WEST MIDLANDS
45.Taiwo Owatemi-Lab Marginal 46.Zarah Sultana-Lab Marginal 48.Matt Western-Lab Marginal Matt Western is actively helped by boundary changes, since Warwick & Leamington is losing one rural ward rather than any of the conurbation, and there is no prospect of anything substantially different being in the final report. Only one out of Taiwo and Zarah can possibly be disadvantaged by them (depending on precisely which Coventry ward swap is included in the final proposals).
Those are only the names which immediately jumped out at me as questionable, but it seems fairly clear that the number of MPs in actual trouble as a result of boundary changes will be fewer than your list implies.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 10:25:45 GMT
I suppose it may depend on how prominent the EU issue is - has she gone full-on rejoin or is he being loyal? Certainly her stance appeared to be considerably separate from her leave voting seat - not so much being a Remainer but the level of fervour.... Though it's worth pointing out that while it would be much closer, the proposed City of Durham seat is far from a Remain banker, because of how strongly Leave voting Houghton and Hetton were. Electoral Calculus has it as 50-50, and my estimates have it as 51.6% Leave. A fervent Remainer might go down well in certain areas within Durham city, but that's just one part of the constituency. Which is why I said remain y- as it is relatively speaking remain leaning compared to the constituencies sorounding it (especially her original seat). |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 10:27:28 GMT
In "normal trouble":
WEST MIDLANDS
45.Taiwo Owatemi-Lab Marginal 46.Zarah Sultana-Lab Marginal 48.Matt Western-Lab Marginal Matt Western is actively helped by boundary changes, since Warwick & Leamington is losing one rural ward rather than any of the conurbation, and there is no prospect of anything substantially different being in the final report. Only one out of Taiwo and Zarah can possibly be disadvantaged by them (depending on precisely which Coventry ward swap is included in the final proposals).
Those are only the names which immediately jumped out at me as questionable, but it seems fairly clear that the number of MPs in actual trouble as a result of boundary changes will be fewer than your list implies.
I know, I should perhaps clarify that the post is about all of the marginals after boundary changes and not the ones that became marginal. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 10, 2021 10:28:13 GMT
Matt Western is actively helped by boundary changes, since Warwick & Leamington is losing one rural ward rather than any of the conurbation, and there is no prospect of anything substantially different being in the final report. Only one out of Taiwo and Zarah can possibly be disadvantaged by them (depending on precisely which Coventry ward swap is included in the final proposals).
Those are only the names which immediately jumped out at me as questionable, but it seems fairly clear that the number of MPs in actual trouble as a result of boundary changes will be fewer than your list implies.
I know, I should perhaps clarify that the post is about all of the marginals after boundary changes and not the ones that became marginal. Ah, that makes more sense. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2021 10:41:23 GMT
There is no guarantee the "new" Batley seat will survive the consultation period, and even if it does Leadbeater might fancy her chances in a more "normal" electoral situation. Plus she fairly clearly wants to represent her "own" area and would have little interest in "carpet-bagging" to somewhere notionally safer. First of all, I said she might.Secondly, she is from Heckmonwicke which would be in Dewsbury and is therefore not a carpet-bagger even if she did chicken run to Dewsbury. No need to take it as a personal criticism, it wasn't meant that way  There have also been suggestions she would go for Huddersfield should Sheerman retire - I think you might agree that fits the "carpet-bag" category rather better. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 10, 2021 10:41:24 GMT
It's not always down to the leadership, though. The membership doesn't always play ball. Actually the best example of this is the number of right wing MPs who survived despite having a lot of local critics - because the less active members, who had largely voted for Corbyn, didn't want to deselect their MP. Another important thing to remember is that turnout isnt that high and so local organization can make a difference. What I was saying is that I would be suprised if Phillipson went to Washington before Durham given the current situation. That was my point too. Re schedule of the selection battles between sitting MPs which will be likely decided on inputs from Regional/Central party rather than the outcome. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 10:45:45 GMT
First of all, I said she might.Secondly, she is from Heckmonwicke which would be in Dewsbury and is therefore not a carpet-bagger even if she did chicken run to Dewsbury. No need to take it as a personal criticism, it wasn't meant that way There have also been suggestions she would go for Huddersfield should Sheerman retire - I think you might agree that fits the "carpet-bag" category rather better. Huddersfield is carpet-bagging and a bit idiotic considering the new Dewsbury and the new Huddersfield are going to have similar majorities. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 10, 2021 11:16:16 GMT
In London, Helen Hayes is basically seatless as Dulwich and West Norwood has been split in many ways. There are new seats around her which will likely won't have a claim from another sitting MP. Open selections in London are more competitive than elsewhere, but I guess she can land somewhere between Norwood and Clapham & Brixton. I'll stand corrected but IIRC the Labour rules are that a sitting MP can go for any seat which contains 40% or more of their existing seat and there's either a trigger ballot or a closed contest if more than one sitting MP qualifies. If no one seat contains 40% then they can apply for any of the successor seats and again get a trigger ballot or closed contest. I think also they can only actually apply for one successor seat rather having back-ups (though they might informally work something out with their neighbours to avoid head to head contests). |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 10, 2021 11:59:01 GMT
In London, Helen Hayes is basically seatless as Dulwich and West Norwood has been split in many ways. There are new seats around her which will likely won't have a claim from another sitting MP. Open selections in London are more competitive than elsewhere, but I guess she can land somewhere between Norwood and Clapham & Brixton. I'll stand corrected but IIRC the Labour rules are that a sitting MP can go for any seat which contains 40% or more of their existing seat and there's either a trigger ballot or a closed contest if more than one sitting MP qualifies. If no one seat contains 40% then they can apply for any of the successor seats and again get a trigger ballot or closed contest. I think also they can only actually apply for one successor seat rather having back-ups (though they might informally work something out with their neighbours to avoid head to head contests). You are correct. I meant that after (if) she loses against Ellie Reeves in a "closed" contest for Dulwich and Sydenham (where 34% of her current seat goes. 40% not reached anywhere), she would then be free to apply to open selection contests wherever she prefers. If Steve Reed gets Croydon North (55% of his seat going there) and Florence Eshalomi gets Vauxhall & Camberwell (59% of her seat going there), there will be open selections for the new Norwood and Clapham/Brixton seats. Both would contain parts of her current seats but less than 34%. If an MP qualify by the 40% rule for more than 1 seat, they can go for both of them. For ex, last time (pre 2010), Ian Stewart (Eccles) first contested Worsley and Eccles South nomination losing to Barbara Keeley and then lost to Hazel Blears for the Salford & Eccless nomination. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 10, 2021 20:08:16 GMT
My guess is that Phillipson would prefer Posh and remainy Durham to Washington. Whether Durham would prefer her is another question, though. It's often the middle class academic seats more likely to want a left wing MP. The right wing dominance of Labour in the north-east is longstanding and wasn't based on middle class party members. More the old right wing union machine It's worth noting that the selection in City of Durham was stitched up for Foy and she still almost lost it. Partly that was down to a local candidate who was much better than the shortlisting panel had assumed and sometimes people who narrowly win a selection then become extremely popular with the membership, but nevertheless that's not a particular sign of strength. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 10, 2021 21:03:47 GMT
Whether Durham would prefer her is another question, though. It's often the middle class academic seats more likely to want a left wing MP. The right wing dominance of Labour in the north-east is longstanding and wasn't based on middle class party members. More the old right wing union machine It's worth noting that the selection in City of Durham was stitched up for Foy and she still almost lost it. Partly that was down to a local candidate who was much better than the shortlisting panel had assumed and sometimes people who narrowly win a selection then become extremely popular with the membership, but nevertheless that's not a particular sign of strength. Indeed. Though I can't actually think of many Labour MPs I have less regard for than Bridget Philipson. I don't know much about Mary Foy but I can't believe she could be worse than Philipson. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 11, 2021 2:52:10 GMT
It's worth noting that the selection in City of Durham was stitched up for Foy and she still almost lost it. Partly that was down to a local candidate who was much better than the shortlisting panel had assumed and sometimes people who narrowly win a selection then become extremely popular with the membership, but nevertheless that's not a particular sign of strength. Indeed. Though I can't actually think of many Labour MPs I have less regard for than Bridget Philipson. I don't know much about Mary Foy but I can't believe she could be worse than Philipson. When people say that Labour forgot who they are supposed to represnt Phillipson and Mary Creagh come to my mind immediately! But Nevertheless I think Phillipson would probably beat Foy in Durham. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 11, 2021 6:58:01 GMT
Indeed. Though I can't actually think of many Labour MPs I have less regard for than Bridget Philipson. I don't know much about Mary Foy but I can't believe she could be worse than Philipson. When people say that Labour forgot who they are supposed to represnt Phillipson and Mary Creagh come to my mind immediately! But Nevertheless I think Phillipson would probably beat Foy in Durham.Pretty much sums up the problem with the Labour right. Creagh and Ruth Smeeth were two Labour MPS I was certainly glad to see the back of. I don't expect the Labour decline to be averted if MPS who still haven't accepted that policies for a Britain outside the EU are necessary, not just unhelpful complaining. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 11, 2021 7:35:36 GMT
When people say that Labour forgot who they are supposed to represnt Phillipson and Mary Creagh come to my mind immediately! But Nevertheless I think Phillipson would probably beat Foy in Durham.Pretty much sums up the problem with the Labour right. Creagh and Ruth Smeeth were two Labour MPS I was certainly glad to see the back of. I don't expect the Labour decline to be averted if MPS who still haven't accepted that policies for a Britain outside the EU are necessary, not just unhelpful complaining. I actually liked Smeeth. It still amazes me that Lab doesnt want to utilize the freedom to persue a more Keyensenian economic policy we can now have post EU. In general, I think only now people are starting to appreciate the economic freedon Britain now has to be more Socialist or Capitalist. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 11, 2021 9:26:38 GMT
Mary Creagh was a classic example of the "never set foot in the constituency before going for selection" tendency in the PLP, her hilariously bad leadership bid in 2015 is still "fondly" remembered. Phillipson is at least local to her area, and also OK to look at  |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 11, 2021 9:30:47 GMT
Mary Creagh was a classic example of the "never set foot in the constituency before going for selection" tendency in the PLP, her hilariously bad leadership bid in 2015 is still "fondly" remembered. Phillipson is at least local to her area, and also OK to look at Hold on, I thought Mary Creagh was a bus driver on diet! Phillipson may be a local but acted like she was from Highgate...... |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 11, 2021 9:43:50 GMT
Pretty much sums up the problem with the Labour right. Creagh and Ruth Smeeth were two Labour MPS I was certainly glad to see the back of. I don't expect the Labour decline to be averted if MPS who still haven't accepted that policies for a Britain outside the EU are necessary, not just unhelpful complaining. I actually liked Smeeth. It still amazes me that Lab doesnt want to utilize the freedom to persue a more Keyensenian economic policy we can now have post EU. In general, I think only now people are starting to appreciate the economic freedon Britain now has to be more Socialist or Capitalist. Yes, but you're a right wing Tory, so liking Smeeth is perfectly rational 😜 I really have given up trying to work out what is happening with Labour. It's as if they have grudgingly accepted that we aren't in the EU but absolutely refuse to engage with policy futures for that situation |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 11, 2021 9:52:26 GMT
I actually liked Smeeth. It still amazes me that Lab doesnt want to utilize the freedom to persue a more Keyensenian economic policy we can now have post EU. In general, I think only now people are starting to appreciate the economic freedon Britain now has to be more Socialist or Capitalist. Yes, but you're a right wing Tory, so liking Smeeth is perfectly rational 😜 I really have given up trying to work out what is happening with Labour. It's as if they have grudgingly accepted that we aren't in the EU but absolutely refuse to engage with policy futures for that situation I think there is a strong chance you are correct about me liking Smeeth because I am a Zionist Tory Brexiteer.  (I am serious) |
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(I am serious)