right
Conservative
Posts: 18,926
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Post by right on Jun 8, 2021 17:50:23 GMT
So which MPs does it look like will have their seats cut asunder so much that they will have to compete with sitting party colleagues for safe-ish seats?
And which seats are going to lurch away from the sitting party under these proposals?
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Post by rivers10 on Jun 8, 2021 17:59:38 GMT
The first and most obvious is Felicity Buchan who's Kensignton seat becomes Kensington and Westbourne and is more or less unwinnable for the Tories
She doesn't have any nearby Tory seats to lay claim to either
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Post by andrewp on Jun 8, 2021 18:06:13 GMT
Chris Skidmore in Kingswood, although if they all shift one he could go to Keynsham & North East Somerset, Jacob Rees Mogg to Frome and David Warburton to Glastonbury & Somerton.
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 8, 2021 18:06:52 GMT
Are there any notionals up anywhere yet?
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 8, 2021 18:07:06 GMT
Nichola Richards - West Bromwich East. The addition of St Paul's may swing this marginal seat.
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 8, 2021 18:09:06 GMT
Chris Skidmore in Kingswood, although if they all shift one he could go to Keynsham & North East Somerset, Jacob Rees Mogg to Frome and David Warburton to Glastonbury & Somerton. That I can see happening. The addition of Eastville will scupper the Tories. I am wondering with this new Mendip seat with the villages around Weston-super-Mare merged with Wells could be a danger for James Heappey? The Lib Dems must fancy their chances there. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 8, 2021 18:10:33 GMT
Dominic Raab and Tim Farron have been mentioned elsewhere. Also presumably whichever of Matthew Offord or Mike Freer doesn't get nominated in Hendon & Golders Green might not fancy their chances in Finchley & Muswell Hill!
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Post by andrewp on Jun 8, 2021 18:13:10 GMT
Chris Skidmore in Kingswood, although if they all shift one he could go to Keynsham & North East Somerset, Jacob Rees Mogg to Frome and David Warburton to Glastonbury & Somerton. That I can see happening. The addition of Eastville will scupper the Tories. I am wondering with this new Mendip seat with the villages around Weston-super-Mare merged with Wells could be a danger for James Heappey? The Lib Dems must fancy their chances there. Although Wells would lose Street and Glastonbury which was Defitnely one of the best Lib Dem areas in the current Wells seat. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2021 18:14:38 GMT
Siobhan Bailie's position is weakened, and the removal of some decent Green wards might make Labour's task of squeezing the Green vote easier
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 8, 2021 18:15:37 GMT
The guy behind Britain Elects reckons that the new Esher and Walton is notionally Lib Dem, although no doubt a seat could be found for Dominic Raab if things looked bad.
They also have the new Bury South as notionally Labour, which seems odd given that the worst Labour ward in Greater Manchester (according to the mayoral result last month) is being transferred into it.
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 8, 2021 18:17:03 GMT
That I can see happening. The addition of Eastville will scupper the Tories. I am wondering with this new Mendip seat with the villages around Weston-super-Mare merged with Wells could be a danger for James Heappey? The Lib Dems must fancy their chances there. Although Wells would lose Street and Glastonbury which was Defitnely one of the best Lib Dem areas in the current Wells seat. That's true, and I think it may enhance their prospects in the new Glastonbury seat. I gathered Somerset was all Tory in the notional, but there's a Lib Dem voting base in Yatton, Blagdon and Churchill, Congresbury and I guess some of the Wells wards, and it depends on the campaign who works it. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 8, 2021 18:20:10 GMT
Steve Baker, whose Wycombe seat loses Hazlemere and with it much of his majority. He probably can't just run to an adjoining safe seat either - none of Wycombe is in the proposed Princes Risborough constituency, so his claim to it is very weak.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 8, 2021 18:22:55 GMT
I suspect given the large number of Conservative MPs that now retire at each General Election, if the Party bigwigs like a particular MP then they will be found a safe berth. There is unlikely to be such a luxury for Labour and Lib Dem MPs especially at this coming election as hard to name that many safe seats for either.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 8, 2021 18:29:01 GMT
Steve Baker, whose Wycombe seat loses Hazlemere and with it much of his majority. He probably can't just run to an adjoining safe seat either - none of Wycombe is in the proposed Princes Risborough constituency, so his claim to it is very weak. Can imagine Baker would be quite popular with a lot of potential Conservative Associations if he needed to relocate. |
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Jun 8, 2021 19:22:37 GMT
Alison McGovern’s seat disappears - most of her support goes into Birkenhead , while the Tory wards shifted to West Wirral should be more than enough to tip out Margaret Greenwood.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,926
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Post by right on Jun 8, 2021 19:29:25 GMT
I suspect given the large number of Conservative MPs that now retire at each General Election, if the Party bigwigs like a particular MP then they will be found a safe berth. There is unlikely to be such a luxury for Labour and Lib Dem MPs especially at this coming election as hard to name that many safe seats for either. Didn't the average age of the Parliamentary Conservative Party go down quite a lot? |
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 8, 2021 19:31:15 GMT
In addition to those mentioned here's a few more:
-Tim Farron is probably finished on these boundaries.
-Cat Smith probably will struggle to win without Fleetwood but with Garstang and more rural areas thrown into her seat.
-Bob Stewart will struggle in Beckenham with it being stripped of two extremely Tory wards and it being replaced with three Labour ones (two very heavily so). Not 100% sure what the notional for this seat would be though.
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 8, 2021 19:32:51 GMT
Chris Skidmore in Kingswood, although if they all shift one he could go to Keynsham & North East Somerset, Jacob Rees Mogg to Frome and David Warburton to Glastonbury & Somerton. I hope they correct this in the upcoming consultation as there's no need for that NE Somerset-South Gloucestershire seat and no real reason why Kingswood should get the chop. The pitchforks will be well and truly out in this area. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 8, 2021 19:40:04 GMT
Sarah Jones may struggle to get re-elected in this version of Croydon East. It's lost very heavily Labour Woodside as well as strongly Labour Fairfield but gained true-blue areas around Selsdon.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 8, 2021 19:47:04 GMT
Ben Wallace, the current Defence Secretary. His seat is broken up for spare parts, so to speak.
The same goes for the seats of Andrew Gwynne, Bridget Phillipson, and Ian Lavery et al.
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