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Post by ibfc on Jun 9, 2021 13:12:45 GMT
Cat Smith was mentioned upthread - does anyone have a "notional" for the new Lancaster seat? Electoral Calculus says it is a Conservative majority of 4836. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2021 13:14:03 GMT
Might still have gone Labour in 2017, then. Though no doubt the party will try to improve it from a Labour POV going forward.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 9, 2021 13:22:33 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. They explain they regard a new seat as one which dosent contain "the larger part" of an existing seat. not sure whether they just counted wards, counted electorates in the before/after seats or both or neither, though. The detailed mathematical calculation may be outweighed by gut feeling in some cases. The apple might look more like a pear. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 9, 2021 13:29:16 GMT
Ah but what do apples and pears do to the core vote?  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 9, 2021 14:10:15 GMT
Might still have gone Labour in 2017, then. Though no doubt the party will try to improve it from a Labour POV going forward. The difficulty is nobody likes Lancaster and Fleetwood, so the only other significant source of Labour votes is Morecambe, and it's hard to justify the cross-border seat stretching down to Garstang. |
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Post by emsworth on Jun 9, 2021 14:27:48 GMT
Will Keir Starmer take Kentish Town & Bloomsbury?
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Post by emsworth on Jun 9, 2021 14:29:33 GMT
Karen Buck may have some difficulty. My guess is that Tulip Siddiq would take Camden Town & St John's Wood.
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 9, 2021 14:31:06 GMT
Will Keir Starmer take Kentish Town & Bloomsbury? Yes, almost certainly: he lives in the seat and it's the successor to Holborn & St Pancras. However, I'd be surprised if the proposed seat survives in its current form post-consultation. Suggestions for north London from forum members, such as Pete Whitehead, are far better than what the BCE have proposed; and I hope they put them forward during the consultation process. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
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Post by YL on Jun 9, 2021 14:35:17 GMT
Might still have gone Labour in 2017, then. Though no doubt the party will try to improve it from a Labour POV going forward. The difficulty is nobody likes Lancaster and Fleetwood, so the only other significant source of Labour votes is Morecambe, and it's hard to justify the cross-border seat stretching down to Garstang. The obvious adjustment on non-partisan grounds would be to get Skerton West in, and that ought to help Labour a bit. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 9, 2021 14:36:17 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. The seat names aren't always the most accurate guide. Arundel and South Downs has been split between 6 different new seats. Only 24% of Arundel and Littlehampton came from Arundel and South Downs, while 38% came from Worthing West and 29% from Bognor Regis and Littlehampton. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 9, 2021 14:38:48 GMT
I notice Electoral Calculus has the Tories very narrowly winning Leeds East on these boundaries (losing the Harehills half of Gipton & Harehills, gaining Garforth & Swillington). Do we reckon that's accurate? Whilst Burgon's result in the old seat was poor, he still won by 14.1%.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 9, 2021 14:53:54 GMT
Karen Buck may have some difficulty. My guess is that Tulip Siddiq would take Camden Town & St John's Wood. If these were the boundaries, I don't think she'd have much difficulty getting the selection for Kensington and Westbourne, as she previously represented much of that seat prior to 2010. |
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Post by emsworth on Jun 9, 2021 15:09:56 GMT
Karen Buck may have some difficulty. My guess is that Tulip Siddiq would take Camden Town & St John's Wood. If these were the boundaries, I don't think she'd have much difficulty getting the selection for Kensington and Westbourne, as she previously represented much of that seat prior to 2010. That's true. |
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Post by emsworth on Jun 9, 2021 15:10:32 GMT
What are the notionals for Camden Town & St John's Wood? My guess is safe Labour now, but marginal under Cameron - not sure who.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 9, 2021 15:23:02 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. The seat names aren't always the most accurate guide. Arundel and South Downs has been split between 6 different new seats. Only 24% of Arundel and Littlehampton came from Arundel and South Downs, while 38% came from Worthing West and 29% from Bognor Regis and Littlehampton. So is Andy Griffiths in trouble? |
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 9, 2021 15:37:50 GMT
The difficulty is nobody likes Lancaster and Fleetwood, so the only other significant source of Labour votes is Morecambe, and it's hard to justify the cross-border seat stretching down to Garstang. The obvious adjustment on non-partisan grounds would be to get Skerton West in, and that ought to help Labour a bit. Although it could go the other way. I'm sure the Tories will want Skerton East swapped back into Morecambe in exchange for somewhere like Halton-with-Aughton. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 9, 2021 15:40:53 GMT
I notice Electoral Calculus has the Tories very narrowly winning Leeds East on these boundaries (losing the Harehills half of Gipton & Harehills, gaining Garforth & Swillington). Do we reckon that's accurate? Whilst Burgon's result in the old seat was poor, he still won by 14.1%. Doesn't seem likely to me. Burgon's majority is around 5,500, and the loss of utterly safely Labour Harehills knocks a couple of thousand off that - but even then the addition of Garforth probably isn't enough to overturn it. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 9, 2021 15:46:30 GMT
Karen Buck may have some difficulty. My guess is that Tulip Siddiq would take Camden Town & St John's Wood. In the past Labour used the "40% of your current seat going into a new one" criteria to define territorial claims on the new constituencies. I am not sure Siddiq have it on the proposed Camden Town and St John's Wood. Buck (if she doesn't retire next time) has. |
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Post by thirdchill on Jun 9, 2021 15:49:30 GMT
The one fairly obvious one I missed was Warrington South. Removing Lymm (which goes into Tatton constituency) and adding wards from Central Warrington was always going to make this more vulnerable to changing hands. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 9, 2021 16:19:17 GMT
Did anyone mention Norwich North yet? The boundary changes wouldn't put it in the Labour column on 2019 numbers but is very unhelpful (would have been Labour in 2017)
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