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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 9, 2021 12:39:35 GMT
Well, I’ve lived here for thirty years so know it quite well myself.I hope though I’ll have to disappoint you by not dying for an election or two yet, God willing! How, out of interest would you explain Clatterbridge ward , held locally by Cherry Povall with a vote share of 52% with Labour at 37%, being “ easily” Labour at general election time? Are there really that many Labour supporters who only vote at GEs? We’ve discussed often enough the general trend here. There is certainly a big prosperous public sector vote - large numbers of teachers, doctors and other health and university employees from Liverpool as well as the rest of Wirral tend to live either here or Formby way. They will undoubtably mostly support Labour. However it is somewhat puzzling why they should disproportionally fail to turn up at local elections. What has struck me over the last decade at least is the lack of any discernible effort ( in Wirral South) on the part of the Conservatives. Even here in Heswall there is always a fair amount of Labour canvassing. I can’t remember when I last saw so much as a Conservative poster locally, and never in all the time I’ve lived here have we been canvassed by the Tories, but several times by Labour and LibDems. I hear a lot of comments along the lines of “ if they can’t be bothered here, why should we be?” That plus the less than impressive candidates in recent elections ( while the sitting MP is widely seen as “ nice”), has, I’m sure , had a significant effect on what is still a fairly marginal seat. The new Wirral West should be an attractive proposition for a good ambitious Conservative candidate prepared to work hard. This is totally anecdotal but a friend of my dad's who lives in Hoylake (upper middle class public sector) often boasts that he votes Labour nationally cos they'll give him a pay rise but Tory locally cos they'll cut his council tax. I honestly think that sentiment might be quite widespread on the Wirral and there is a lot of split ticket voting taking place, neighbouring Wallasey is an extreme example of that, there's simply no way that the Tory wards there don't monolothically vote Labour at the generals In regards to Clatterbridge specifically our sampling showed that we won it by approx 15 points in 2017 and Ali's agent is not some muppet who'd screw that up, he's the type that has the entire Lab delegation with clipboards sampling at the count This type of split ticket voting isn't unheard off especially in the last 2 elections, I belive it was Plymouth that actually gave specific ward level results for the 2017 general election and it showed that Luke Pollard carried both the Compton and Peverall wards comfortably despite them being safe Tory in the locals so Ali easily winning Clatterbridge and Margaret running the cons close in Hoylake and West Kirkby isn't that unbelievable So as I said these boundaries certainly put the Cons back into contention but it's way less rosey than it first appears and I think they'll really struggle to actually win it Plymouth is not the best comparison as local election results have realigned, to a greater extent, with national ones whereas on the Wirral they're still vastly different. Peverell is a genuine marginal ward now, it'll probably start voting Labour regularly as soon as the party gets its act together (which could be a while, who knows) and even Compton is closer than it used to be. The problem for Plymouth Labour though is that their position appears to have collapsed in the northern (Moor View) wards like in the general, with the Tories getting a clean sweep this year. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 9, 2021 12:41:32 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. They explain they regard a new seat as one which dosent contain "the larger part" of an existing seat. not sure whether they just counted wards, counted electorates in the before/after seats or both or neither, though. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 31,143
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2021 13:10:17 GMT
Cat Smith was mentioned upthread - does anyone have a "notional" for the new Lancaster seat?
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ibfc
Forum Regular
Posts: 1,248
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Post by ibfc on Jun 9, 2021 13:12:45 GMT
Cat Smith was mentioned upthread - does anyone have a "notional" for the new Lancaster seat? Electoral Calculus says it is a Conservative majority of 4836. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 31,143
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2021 13:14:03 GMT
Might still have gone Labour in 2017, then. Though no doubt the party will try to improve it from a Labour POV going forward.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 9, 2021 13:22:33 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. They explain they regard a new seat as one which dosent contain "the larger part" of an existing seat. not sure whether they just counted wards, counted electorates in the before/after seats or both or neither, though. The detailed mathematical calculation may be outweighed by gut feeling in some cases. The apple might look more like a pear. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 9, 2021 13:29:16 GMT
Ah but what do apples and pears do to the core vote?  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 9, 2021 14:10:15 GMT
Might still have gone Labour in 2017, then. Though no doubt the party will try to improve it from a Labour POV going forward. The difficulty is nobody likes Lancaster and Fleetwood, so the only other significant source of Labour votes is Morecambe, and it's hard to justify the cross-border seat stretching down to Garstang. |
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Post by emsworth on Jun 9, 2021 14:27:48 GMT
Will Keir Starmer take Kentish Town & Bloomsbury?
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Post by emsworth on Jun 9, 2021 14:29:33 GMT
Karen Buck may have some difficulty. My guess is that Tulip Siddiq would take Camden Town & St John's Wood.
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 9, 2021 14:31:06 GMT
Will Keir Starmer take Kentish Town & Bloomsbury? Yes, almost certainly: he lives in the seat and it's the successor to Holborn & St Pancras. However, I'd be surprised if the proposed seat survives in its current form post-consultation. Suggestions for north London from forum members, such as Pete Whitehead, are far better than what the BCE have proposed; and I hope they put them forward during the consultation process. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 2,800
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Post by YL on Jun 9, 2021 14:35:17 GMT
Might still have gone Labour in 2017, then. Though no doubt the party will try to improve it from a Labour POV going forward. The difficulty is nobody likes Lancaster and Fleetwood, so the only other significant source of Labour votes is Morecambe, and it's hard to justify the cross-border seat stretching down to Garstang. The obvious adjustment on non-partisan grounds would be to get Skerton West in, and that ought to help Labour a bit. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 9, 2021 14:36:17 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. The seat names aren't always the most accurate guide. Arundel and South Downs has been split between 6 different new seats. Only 24% of Arundel and Littlehampton came from Arundel and South Downs, while 38% came from Worthing West and 29% from Bognor Regis and Littlehampton. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 9, 2021 14:38:48 GMT
I notice Electoral Calculus has the Tories very narrowly winning Leeds East on these boundaries (losing the Harehills half of Gipton & Harehills, gaining Garforth & Swillington). Do we reckon that's accurate? Whilst Burgon's result in the old seat was poor, he still won by 14.1%.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 9, 2021 14:53:54 GMT
Karen Buck may have some difficulty. My guess is that Tulip Siddiq would take Camden Town & St John's Wood. If these were the boundaries, I don't think she'd have much difficulty getting the selection for Kensington and Westbourne, as she previously represented much of that seat prior to 2010. |
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Post by emsworth on Jun 9, 2021 15:09:56 GMT
Karen Buck may have some difficulty. My guess is that Tulip Siddiq would take Camden Town & St John's Wood. If these were the boundaries, I don't think she'd have much difficulty getting the selection for Kensington and Westbourne, as she previously represented much of that seat prior to 2010. That's true. |
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Post by emsworth on Jun 9, 2021 15:10:32 GMT
What are the notionals for Camden Town & St John's Wood? My guess is safe Labour now, but marginal under Cameron - not sure who.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 13,718
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Post by right on Jun 9, 2021 15:23:02 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. The seat names aren't always the most accurate guide. Arundel and South Downs has been split between 6 different new seats. Only 24% of Arundel and Littlehampton came from Arundel and South Downs, while 38% came from Worthing West and 29% from Bognor Regis and Littlehampton. So is Andy Griffiths in trouble? |
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 9, 2021 15:37:50 GMT
The difficulty is nobody likes Lancaster and Fleetwood, so the only other significant source of Labour votes is Morecambe, and it's hard to justify the cross-border seat stretching down to Garstang. The obvious adjustment on non-partisan grounds would be to get Skerton West in, and that ought to help Labour a bit. Although it could go the other way. I'm sure the Tories will want Skerton East swapped back into Morecambe in exchange for somewhere like Halton-with-Aughton. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 9, 2021 15:40:53 GMT
I notice Electoral Calculus has the Tories very narrowly winning Leeds East on these boundaries (losing the Harehills half of Gipton & Harehills, gaining Garforth & Swillington). Do we reckon that's accurate? Whilst Burgon's result in the old seat was poor, he still won by 14.1%. Doesn't seem likely to me. Burgon's majority is around 5,500, and the loss of utterly safely Labour Harehills knocks a couple of thousand off that - but even then the addition of Garforth probably isn't enough to overturn it. |
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