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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 8, 2021 19:54:15 GMT
Alison McGovern’s seat disappears - most of her support goes into Birkenhead , while the Tory wards shifted to West Wirral should be more than enough to tip out Margaret Greenwood. While the new Wirral West is better for the Conservatives than the old one, I'm fairly sure it would still be notionally Labour. Ben Wallace, the current Defence Secretary. His seat is broken up for spare parts, so to speak. The same goes for the seats of Andrew Gwynne, Bridget Phillipson, and Ian Lavery et al. Ian Lavery will be fine, Blyth & Ashington will be safe Labour. Andrew Gwynne could potentially take the new Droylsden & Failsworth seat. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 8, 2021 19:57:03 GMT
Ben Wallace, the current Defence Secretary. His seat is broken up for spare parts, so to speak. The same goes for the seats of Andrew Gwynne, Bridget Phillipson, and Ian Lavery et al. Ian Lavery will be fine. Assuming he doesn't retire, he'll fight (and almost certainly win) Blyth and Ashington. Particularly since Ian Levy will probably choose not to contest that seat, instead going for the (likely very marginal) cross-county seat of Whitley Bay and Cramlington.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,927
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Post by right on Jun 8, 2021 20:01:14 GMT
One question that interests me is which factions in both main parties will benefit from this?
Obviously the central bureaucracy could have a big role to play if they go beyond simply trying to keep as many MPs in place as possible. If the CCHQ decided to move on some Boris doubters or Starmer tried to ease out some left wingers such as Lavery or Cat Smith, then this would be the time to do this.
I doubt that there could be any pushback in the Labour ranks, the pro-Europeans aren't either organised nor numerous enough and there's no other factions that would make any hay. But Labour has strong factions on the hard left and the pro European right who are not in tune with Starmer.
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Post by loderingo on Jun 8, 2021 20:11:15 GMT
Ben Wallace, the current Defence Secretary. His seat is broken up for spare parts, so to speak. The same goes for the seats of Andrew Gwynne, Bridget Phillipson, and Ian Lavery et al. Wallace can take the new Lancaster seat. He started out as the MP for Lancaster and Wyre |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 8, 2021 20:36:18 GMT
I don't suppose Clive Efford will like the proposals much?
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 8, 2021 20:41:48 GMT
Are there any notionals up anywhere yet? I understand that the New Statesman will be publishing notionals tomorrow but no idea how accurate they will be especially in London where new ward boundaries will mean that such calculations will be very difficult until May 2022. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 8, 2021 20:58:17 GMT
Westmoreland & Lonsdale has been splatted into four fragments. It's almost as if the BCE subconsciously was wanting to splat Tim Farron into four fragments just because he's a smug booliak.
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Post by rivers10 on Jun 8, 2021 21:04:26 GMT
Alison McGovern’s seat disappears - most of her support goes into Birkenhead , while the Tory wards shifted to West Wirral should be more than enough to tip out Margaret Greenwood. The new Wirral West is obviously a lot more Tory but I'd have it notionally Labour and trending further left as has been discussed many times before so I'd imagine Margaret would hold on The proposed Wirral Deeside from the zombie review was notionally Tory by about 4,000 in 2015 and the seat has swung to Labour since then and these boundaries are much better for Lab in that it still contains half of Upton ward and doesn't include Parkgate and the other Cheshire West villages |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,069 
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Post by jamie on Jun 8, 2021 21:04:40 GMT
Mary Glindon and Alan Campbell wont be happy. Both have their constituencies sliced in half. Campbell would have to choose between the notionally Conservative marginal of Cramlington and Whitley Bay and the safe Labour North Shields and Wallsend constituency. However, Mary Glindon lives in Wallsend so would prefer this constituency, particularly as the new Newcastle North is notionally fairly marginal (though it’s hard to see Labour ever actually losing it).
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 8, 2021 21:25:59 GMT
Ben Wallace, the current Defence Secretary. His seat is broken up for spare parts, so to speak. The same goes for the seats of Andrew Gwynne, Bridget Phillipson, and Ian Lavery et al. Oh dear, how sad. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,091
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 8, 2021 21:50:21 GMT
Are there any notionals up anywhere yet? Don't think so, although when the previous review was announced Anthony Wells of UKPR had notionals up within a matter of hours. Not sure how he did it so fast. I suppose he didn't have the ward splits to contend with we have this time. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 8, 2021 22:03:59 GMT
Stuart Andrew will not like the look of the new Pudsey seat but I guess he will be in line for the new Leeds NW which includes half the current Pudsey and should be Tory
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 8, 2021 22:06:08 GMT
Are there any notionals up anywhere yet? Don't think so, although when the previous review was announced Anthony Wells of UKPR had notionals up within a matter of hours. Not sure how he did it so fast. Anthony Wells is not so busy on his website these days and the last article by him is 4th May |
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Post by rivers10 on Jun 8, 2021 22:20:07 GMT
Stuart Andrew will not like the look of the new Pudsey seat but I guess he will be in line for the new Leeds NW which includes half the current Pudsey and should be Tory I'd be fascinated to see some notionals for the new Leeds NW, Lab have a chunky 22% majority in the current seat and that can't all be from Headingly and Weetwood meaning they must have done decently in Adel and Otley Likewise the old Pudsey seat is very marginal and Labour's support there can't come solely from Pudsey proper, they must have done decent in Guiseley and Horsforth I dont know Leeds at all but based on the local elections results it looks like the new seat will be an ultra marginal, a lot will depend on where the big Lib Dem vote in Otley and Yeadon goes |
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Post by where2travel on Jun 8, 2021 22:37:57 GMT
Bob Stewart will struggle in Beckenham with it being stripped of two extremely Tory wards and it being replaced with three Labour ones (two very heavily so). Not 100% sure what the notional for this seat would be though. This was my first thought when I saw the proposal for Beckenham showed it reverting back to its 1997 to 2010 boundaries. Those boundaries and the Tories general relative underperformance here since 2010 means I think the notional results could be close. Bob Stewart will be 75 in 2024 so may not be overly concerned if he's thinking of retiring. He may not be though, I often thought he may retire at the recent general elections, but he the showed no sign of doing so. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 8, 2021 23:14:03 GMT
Stuart Andrew will not like the look of the new Pudsey seat but I guess he will be in line for the new Leeds NW which includes half the current Pudsey and should be Tory I'd be fascinated to see some notionals for the new Leeds NW, Lab have a chunky 22% majority in the current seat and that can't all be from Headingly and Weetwood meaning they must have done decently in Adel and Otley Likewise the old Pudsey seat is very marginal and Labour's support there can't come solely from Pudsey proper, they must have done decent in Guiseley and Horsforth I dont know Leeds at all but based on the local elections results it looks like the new seat will be an ultra marginal, a lot will depend on where the big Lib Dem vote in Otley and Yeadon goes Well, the best Tory local election vote in Headingley in recent years is 5%.. And this year they got 12% in Weetwood. Sobel got most of his majority there. If there were no Lib Dems the Tories would probably win Otley and Yeadon, although it might be close. I don't think Labour have ever beaten the Tories in a local election in either Horsforth or Guiseley. Adel is always Tory. I think barring a 1997 election the peak vote for Labour in the new Leeds NW would be about 35%. Labour may have won all the current Pudsey wards in 1997, so in those circumstances anything could happen! Otherwise the Labour vote in Pudsey has been built on the Pudsey ward, with 30-35% in the others I would think. In 2019 Pudsey swung Tory like many Brexity places and the constituency was an easy Tory win.. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,060
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 9, 2021 3:15:15 GMT
George Hollingbery is abolished in the bits and pieces seat of Meon Valley, with only one ward going into the effective new seat of Hedge End, shifting across would be problematic.
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Post by robert1 on Jun 9, 2021 4:49:38 GMT
'George Hollingbery is abolished in the bits and pieces seat of Meon Valley, with only one ward going into the effective new seat of Hedge End, shifting across would be problematic'
Please keep up at the back. George stood down at the last election!
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,060
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 9, 2021 5:00:17 GMT
'George Hollingbery is abolished in the bits and pieces seat of Meon Valley, with only one ward going into the effective new seat of Hedge End, shifting across would be problematic' Please keep up at the back. George stood down at the last election! Sorry, I'd completely forgotten Flick Drummond had taken over from him. She is very forgettable (and I'm someone who knows her quite well!). |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 9, 2021 6:05:32 GMT
'George Hollingbery is abolished in the bits and pieces seat of Meon Valley, with only one ward going into the effective new seat of Hedge End, shifting across would be problematic' Please keep up at the back. George stood down at the last election! He's now our man in Havana. |
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