|
|
Post by anthonyjwells on Jun 9, 2021 6:32:04 GMT
Are there any notionals up anywhere yet? Don't think so, although when the previous review was announced Anthony Wells of UKPR had notionals up within a matter of hours. Not sure how he did it so fast. I'm not planning on doing any this time - Britain Elects Ben is supposed to be releasing some on the News Statesman site today. (Speed was all down to prepping a spreadsheet wholly in advance, and just dropping in the list of which ward went where on release day) |
|
hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
|
Post by hengo on Jun 9, 2021 7:29:11 GMT
Alison McGovern’s seat disappears - most of her support goes into Birkenhead , while the Tory wards shifted to West Wirral should be more than enough to tip out Margaret Greenwood. The new Wirral West is obviously a lot more Tory but I'd have it notionally Labour and trending further left as has been discussed many times before so I'd imagine Margaret would hold on The proposed Wirral Deeside from the zombie review was notionally Tory by about 4,000 in 2015 and the seat has swung to Labour since then and these boundaries are much better for Lab in that it still contains half of Upton ward and doesn't include Parkgate and the other Cheshire West villages Well if it goes through, we’ll see. I’m not myself convinced that this Merseyside trend is some kind of irreversible phenomenon. I realise that one cannot simply transfer local election results into the parliamentary constituencies, but with Pensby now trending back to the conservatives , I think every ward in the new Wirral West will be blue. And with the ones with the heaviest Tory majorities in Wirral now included I’m not quite sure how the new seat is deemed notionally Labour? As for the MPs , Alison McGovern is actually quite popular personally in the Tory Deeside wards of Wirral South as well as Labour Merseyside. She was careful to make sure everyone knew she was no Corbynite, and of course a local girl. A bit anodyne but personable. I don’t think Greenwood has the same cross party appeal. At this point , and provided the Conservatives , for once , find a decent candidate and make some kind of visible effort to win the seat, I would be confident of water running downhill again here! |
|
|
|
Post by rivers10 on Jun 9, 2021 8:20:11 GMT
The new Wirral West is obviously a lot more Tory but I'd have it notionally Labour and trending further left as has been discussed many times before so I'd imagine Margaret would hold on The proposed Wirral Deeside from the zombie review was notionally Tory by about 4,000 in 2015 and the seat has swung to Labour since then and these boundaries are much better for Lab in that it still contains half of Upton ward and doesn't include Parkgate and the other Cheshire West villages Well if it goes through, we’ll see. I’m not myself convinced that this Merseyside trend is some kind of irreversible phenomenon. I realise that one cannot simply transfer local election results into the parliamentary constituencies, but with Pensby now trending back to the conservatives , I think every ward in the new Wirral West will be blue. And with the ones with the heaviest Tory majorities in Wirral now included I’m not quite sure how the new seat is deemed notionally Labour? As for the MPs , Alison McGovern is actually quite popular personally in the Tory Deeside wards of Wirral South as well as Labour Merseyside. She was careful to make sure everyone knew she was no Corbynite, and of course a local girl. A bit anodyne but personable. I don’t think Greenwood has the same cross party appeal. At this point , and provided the Conservatives , for once , find a decent candidate and make some kind of visible effort to win the seat, I would be confident of water running downhill again here! Nothing is permanent but I know the area very well and the Wirral is prime Liverpool commuter belt, elderly Tory voters are quite literally dieing off and being replaced by Labour voting families, I can't see the trend going into sharp reverse in the near future Pensby is absolutely not trending Tory, the ward has always been marginal and that will remain the case for a good while yet so the tories having a full slate of councillors is not unprecedented especially given the aggro in the Wirral Labour Party the last few years and some green belt issues that have made the Labour Council very unpopular The new seat still contains half of Upton ward which is a Labour vote sink. Also Wirral has long been identified as one of those areas where a particular party underperforms locally compared to the general elections. In the 2019 general Labour carried Pensby and Greasby easily and in 2017 they even ran the tories close in Hoylake and West Kirby. I know Ali's agent in Wirral South personally and Clatterbridge went Labour easily in 2017 and we even carried it in 2019, the only place where Labour really struggle in generals is Heswall |
|
|
|
Post by pinkglover on Jun 9, 2021 9:41:49 GMT
|
|
hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
|
Post by hengo on Jun 9, 2021 9:52:37 GMT
Well if it goes through, we’ll see. I’m not myself convinced that this Merseyside trend is some kind of irreversible phenomenon. I realise that one cannot simply transfer local election results into the parliamentary constituencies, but with Pensby now trending back to the conservatives , I think every ward in the new Wirral West will be blue. And with the ones with the heaviest Tory majorities in Wirral now included I’m not quite sure how the new seat is deemed notionally Labour? As for the MPs , Alison McGovern is actually quite popular personally in the Tory Deeside wards of Wirral South as well as Labour Merseyside. She was careful to make sure everyone knew she was no Corbynite, and of course a local girl. A bit anodyne but personable. I don’t think Greenwood has the same cross party appeal. At this point , and provided the Conservatives , for once , find a decent candidate and make some kind of visible effort to win the seat, I would be confident of water running downhill again here! Nothing is permanent but I know the area very well and the Wirral is prime Liverpool commuter belt, elderly Tory voters are quite literally dieing off and being replaced by Labour voting families, I can't see the trend going into sharp reverse in the near future Pensby is absolutely not trending Tory, the ward has always been marginal and that will remain the case for a good while yet so the tories having a full slate of councillors is not unprecedented especially given the aggro in the Wirral Labour Party the last few years and some green belt issues that have made the Labour Council very unpopular The new seat still contains half of Upton ward which is a Labour vote sink. Also Wirral has long been identified as one of those areas where a particular party underperforms locally compared to the general elections. In the 2019 general Labour carried Pensby and Greasby easily and in 2017 they even ran the tories close in Hoylake and West Kirby. I know Ali's agent in Wirral South personally and Clatterbridge went Labour easily in 2017 and we even carried it in 2019, the only place where Labour really struggle in generals is Heswall Well, I’ve lived here for thirty years so know it quite well myself.I hope though I’ll have to disappoint you by not dying for an election or two yet, God willing! How, out of interest would you explain Clatterbridge ward , held locally by Cherry Povall with a vote share of 52% with Labour at 37%, being “ easily” Labour at general election time? Are there really that many Labour supporters who only vote at GEs? We’ve discussed often enough the general trend here. There is certainly a big prosperous public sector vote - large numbers of teachers, doctors and other health and university employees from Liverpool as well as the rest of Wirral tend to live either here or Formby way. They will undoubtably mostly support Labour. However it is somewhat puzzling why they should disproportionally fail to turn up at local elections. What has struck me over the last decade at least is the lack of any discernible effort ( in Wirral South) on the part of the Conservatives. Even here in Heswall there is always a fair amount of Labour canvassing. I can’t remember when I last saw so much as a Conservative poster locally, and never in all the time I’ve lived here have we been canvassed by the Tories, but several times by Labour and LibDems. I hear a lot of comments along the lines of “ if they can’t be bothered here, why should we be?” That plus the less than impressive candidates in recent elections ( while the sitting MP is widely seen as “ nice”), has, I’m sure , had a significant effect on what is still a fairly marginal seat. The new Wirral West should be an attractive proposition for a good ambitious Conservative candidate prepared to work hard. |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 9, 2021 10:02:58 GMT
Nothing is permanent but I know the area very well and the Wirral is prime Liverpool commuter belt, elderly Tory voters are quite literally dieing off and being replaced by Labour voting families, I can't see the trend going into sharp reverse in the near future Pensby is absolutely not trending Tory, the ward has always been marginal and that will remain the case for a good while yet so the tories having a full slate of councillors is not unprecedented especially given the aggro in the Wirral Labour Party the last few years and some green belt issues that have made the Labour Council very unpopular The new seat still contains half of Upton ward which is a Labour vote sink. Also Wirral has long been identified as one of those areas where a particular party underperforms locally compared to the general elections. In the 2019 general Labour carried Pensby and Greasby easily and in 2017 they even ran the tories close in Hoylake and West Kirby. I know Ali's agent in Wirral South personally and Clatterbridge went Labour easily in 2017 and we even carried it in 2019, the only place where Labour really struggle in generals is Heswall Well, I’ve lived here for thirty years so know it quite well myself.I hope though I’ll have to disappoint you by not dying for an election or two yet, God willing! How, out of interest would you explain Clatterbridge ward , held locally by Cherry Povall with a vote share of 52% with Labour at 37%, being “ easily” Labour at general election time? Are there really that many Labour supporters who only vote at GEs? We’ve discussed often enough the general trend here. There is certainly a big prosperous public sector vote - large numbers of teachers, doctors and other health and university employees from Liverpool as well as the rest of Wirral tend to live either here or Formby way. They will undoubtably mostly support Labour. However it is somewhat puzzling why they should disproportionally fail to turn up at local elections. What has struck me over the last decade at least is the lack of any discernible effort ( in Wirral South) on the part of the Conservatives. Even here in Heswall there is always a fair amount of Labour canvassing. I can’t remember when I last saw so much as a Conservative poster locally, and never in all the time I’ve lived here have we been canvassed by the Tories, but several times by Labour and LibDems. I hear a lot of comments along the lines of “ if they can’t be bothered here, why should we be?” That plus the less than impressive candidates in recent elections ( while the sitting MP is widely seen as “ nice”), has, I’m sure , had a significant effect on what is still a fairly marginal seat. The new Wirral West should be an attractive proposition for a good ambitious Conservative candidate prepared to work hard. It is certainly puzzling, but of course if Wirral West voted nationally, as it does locally, it would be a fairly safe Conservative seat. But it isn't. Similarly, Margaret Greenwood's results are better than those of Alison McGovern given the demographics of the two seats. |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,069 
Member is Online
|
Post by jamie on Jun 9, 2021 10:08:51 GMT
I haven’t calculated the notional result of the new Wirral West, but Labour’s performance in the Wirral at local elections is much, much worse than at general elections. There is simply no way of explaining the 2017 or even 2019 general election results if you assume the middle class wards in particular voted remotely like they do at council elections.
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 9, 2021 10:17:33 GMT
I haven’t calculated the notional result of the new Wirral West, but Labour’s performance in the Wirral at local elections is much, much worse than at general elections. There is simply no way of explaining the 2017 or even 2019 general election results if you assume the middle class wards in particular voted remotely like they do at council elections. It used to be the same in Sefton. When Bill Esterson first won the new Sefton Central seat there wasn't a single Labour councillor and just about everyone had written it off within the Labour party. They now hold all but one ward. Wirral council has been embroiled in a range of controversy over the years and the Labour group has been very divided between left and right and that's been quite vicious at times. Field's influence in the main. He has gone, so have his followers, and it will be interesting to see how Janette Williamson, the new council leader performs (she is very left wing) |
|
|
|
Post by rivers10 on Jun 9, 2021 10:20:04 GMT
Nothing is permanent but I know the area very well and the Wirral is prime Liverpool commuter belt, elderly Tory voters are quite literally dieing off and being replaced by Labour voting families, I can't see the trend going into sharp reverse in the near future Pensby is absolutely not trending Tory, the ward has always been marginal and that will remain the case for a good while yet so the tories having a full slate of councillors is not unprecedented especially given the aggro in the Wirral Labour Party the last few years and some green belt issues that have made the Labour Council very unpopular The new seat still contains half of Upton ward which is a Labour vote sink. Also Wirral has long been identified as one of those areas where a particular party underperforms locally compared to the general elections. In the 2019 general Labour carried Pensby and Greasby easily and in 2017 they even ran the tories close in Hoylake and West Kirby. I know Ali's agent in Wirral South personally and Clatterbridge went Labour easily in 2017 and we even carried it in 2019, the only place where Labour really struggle in generals is Heswall Well, I’ve lived here for thirty years so know it quite well myself.I hope though I’ll have to disappoint you by not dying for an election or two yet, God willing! How, out of interest would you explain Clatterbridge ward , held locally by Cherry Povall with a vote share of 52% with Labour at 37%, being “ easily” Labour at general election time? Are there really that many Labour supporters who only vote at GEs? We’ve discussed often enough the general trend here. There is certainly a big prosperous public sector vote - large numbers of teachers, doctors and other health and university employees from Liverpool as well as the rest of Wirral tend to live either here or Formby way. They will undoubtably mostly support Labour. However it is somewhat puzzling why they should disproportionally fail to turn up at local elections. What has struck me over the last decade at least is the lack of any discernible effort ( in Wirral South) on the part of the Conservatives. Even here in Heswall there is always a fair amount of Labour canvassing. I can’t remember when I last saw so much as a Conservative poster locally, and never in all the time I’ve lived here have we been canvassed by the Tories, but several times by Labour and LibDems. I hear a lot of comments along the lines of “ if they can’t be bothered here, why should we be?” That plus the less than impressive candidates in recent elections ( while the sitting MP is widely seen as “ nice”), has, I’m sure , had a significant effect on what is still a fairly marginal seat. The new Wirral West should be an attractive proposition for a good ambitious Conservative candidate prepared to work hard. This is totally anecdotal but a friend of my dad's who lives in Hoylake (upper middle class public sector) often boasts that he votes Labour nationally cos they'll give him a pay rise but Tory locally cos they'll cut his council tax. I honestly think that sentiment might be quite widespread on the Wirral and there is a lot of split ticket voting taking place, neighbouring Wallasey is an extreme example of that, there's simply no way that the Tory wards there don't monolothically vote Labour at the generals In regards to Clatterbridge specifically our sampling showed that we won it by approx 15 points in 2017 and Ali's agent is not some muppet who'd screw that up, he's the type that has the entire Lab delegation with clipboards sampling at the count This type of split ticket voting isn't unheard off especially in the last 2 elections, I belive it was Plymouth that actually gave specific ward level results for the 2017 general election and it showed that Luke Pollard carried both the Compton and Peverall wards comfortably despite them being safe Tory in the locals so Ali easily winning Clatterbridge and Margaret running the cons close in Hoylake and West Kirkby isn't that unbelievable So as I said these boundaries certainly put the Cons back into contention but it's way less rosey than it first appears and I think they'll really struggle to actually win it |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 51,152
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Jun 9, 2021 11:10:17 GMT
I haven’t calculated the notional result of the new Wirral West, but Labour’s performance in the Wirral at local elections is much, much worse than at general elections. There is simply no way of explaining the 2017 or even 2019 general election results if you assume the middle class wards in particular voted remotely like they do at council elections. It is an area I know nothing about at all, and it has always anazed me how it has changed from the Marples and Chalker period to now. Also the odd divergence between local and GE results when most of England, if it has a divergence at all, diverges the other way round. There is comment up-thread by those who know, about the analysis of the demographic of educated middle class in the public sector working in Liverpool. Could it be that such a demographic are a self-select very much more to the left than a similar group in other parts of England? Add to that a general view of a most significant change in the perception of the Conservative Party post-Cameron and especially under Johnson. Could it be a reverse 'Corbyn effect' on a demographic of the same nature but in opposite direction to the causes of the loss by Labour of Don Valley, Rother Valley and Bassetlaw? Might this unwind under a Conservative party on the model of MacMillan, Major and Cameron? |
|
hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
|
Post by hengo on Jun 9, 2021 11:22:25 GMT
Your anecdote is not unfamiliar. It was a commonplace at one time among Education Officers that the ideal combination was a National Labour government to provide sufficient funding for schools and a Conservative council to ensure it was spent sensibly. But I’m sceptical to be honest. It would be fascinating to see an in depth study here to see how many of the theories explaining voting patterns here actually hold up. One further possible factor, more maybe in West Wirral than South, has been the migration of notionally Catholic ( Irish origin) families from Birkenhead where many of the primary schools were RC and are now , if still open, small or half empty, while there are insufficient places to meet demand around Hoylake and West Kirby. Tribal loyalties are maybe stronger among this demographic than some others. But it would I think be a mistake to assume that’s a permanent characteristic.
|
|
|
|
Post by thirdchill on Jun 9, 2021 11:25:46 GMT
They also have the new Bury South as notionally Labour, which seems odd given that the worst Labour ward in Greater Manchester (according to the mayoral result last month) is being transferred into it. It might be because Radcliffe North has been transferred to Bury North. I agree that it's probably still notionally conservative but still quite marginal even with the addition of Kersal. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Jun 9, 2021 11:43:42 GMT
 Nobody can credibly claim these boundaries are a Conservative gerrymander. (They couldn't anyway but still.) If we were trying to fix things surely we'd have wanted to keep one of Labour's biggest albatrosses in Parliament? |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jun 9, 2021 12:07:27 GMT
The guy behind Britain Elects reckons that the new Esher and Walton is notionally Lib Dem, although no doubt a seat could be found for Dominic Raab if things looked bad. They also have the new Bury South as notionally Labour, which seems odd given that the worst Labour ward in Greater Manchester (according to the mayoral result last month) is being transferred into it.Indeed. That would be a bizarre statement . Adding Kersal makes it slightly more favourable to the Tories than it otherwise would have been |
|
hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
|
Post by hengo on Jun 9, 2021 12:12:26 GMT
I’m not sure the infighting in the Labour group has had much effect on the Deeside areas. Obviously a lot in Birkenhead where the Greens have had the benefit. I assume too that these green local voters revert to Labour at a GE , as do the LibDems. I’ve not myself heard of Conservative local voters switching.
Wallasey, Carlton, in this (as in much else) is an odd place! When I first moved up here and was familiarising myself with the Borough, I found it hard to understand how it was a Conservative constituency at all, though Linda Chalker was quite popular. No surprise when it turned Labour and is now solid for them. South Wirral is divided between the fairly well heeled Deeside and the industrialised Merseyside with traditional working class estates. West Wirral has possibly the wealthiest area in the region in Calday but also some mixed parts around the fringes of Hoyalke and West Kirby and some overspill estates as well. But you would I think be very surprised to tour Deeside in Wirral (comprising the bulk of the new West Wirral) to think this was a notionally Labour constituency.
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jun 9, 2021 12:24:31 GMT
Very useful link. Thanks.
Interesting to note that one of the seats Electoral Calculus have switching is the Batley seat[soon to be Batley & Hipperholme] which is of course subject on an upcoming by-election! This would certainly exclude this seat from ever being considered a so-called Red Wall seat in future!
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jun 9, 2021 12:32:55 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. |
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on Jun 9, 2021 12:39:35 GMT
Well, I’ve lived here for thirty years so know it quite well myself.I hope though I’ll have to disappoint you by not dying for an election or two yet, God willing! How, out of interest would you explain Clatterbridge ward , held locally by Cherry Povall with a vote share of 52% with Labour at 37%, being “ easily” Labour at general election time? Are there really that many Labour supporters who only vote at GEs? We’ve discussed often enough the general trend here. There is certainly a big prosperous public sector vote - large numbers of teachers, doctors and other health and university employees from Liverpool as well as the rest of Wirral tend to live either here or Formby way. They will undoubtably mostly support Labour. However it is somewhat puzzling why they should disproportionally fail to turn up at local elections. What has struck me over the last decade at least is the lack of any discernible effort ( in Wirral South) on the part of the Conservatives. Even here in Heswall there is always a fair amount of Labour canvassing. I can’t remember when I last saw so much as a Conservative poster locally, and never in all the time I’ve lived here have we been canvassed by the Tories, but several times by Labour and LibDems. I hear a lot of comments along the lines of “ if they can’t be bothered here, why should we be?” That plus the less than impressive candidates in recent elections ( while the sitting MP is widely seen as “ nice”), has, I’m sure , had a significant effect on what is still a fairly marginal seat. The new Wirral West should be an attractive proposition for a good ambitious Conservative candidate prepared to work hard. This is totally anecdotal but a friend of my dad's who lives in Hoylake (upper middle class public sector) often boasts that he votes Labour nationally cos they'll give him a pay rise but Tory locally cos they'll cut his council tax. I honestly think that sentiment might be quite widespread on the Wirral and there is a lot of split ticket voting taking place, neighbouring Wallasey is an extreme example of that, there's simply no way that the Tory wards there don't monolothically vote Labour at the generals In regards to Clatterbridge specifically our sampling showed that we won it by approx 15 points in 2017 and Ali's agent is not some muppet who'd screw that up, he's the type that has the entire Lab delegation with clipboards sampling at the count This type of split ticket voting isn't unheard off especially in the last 2 elections, I belive it was Plymouth that actually gave specific ward level results for the 2017 general election and it showed that Luke Pollard carried both the Compton and Peverall wards comfortably despite them being safe Tory in the locals so Ali easily winning Clatterbridge and Margaret running the cons close in Hoylake and West Kirkby isn't that unbelievable So as I said these boundaries certainly put the Cons back into contention but it's way less rosey than it first appears and I think they'll really struggle to actually win it Plymouth is not the best comparison as local election results have realigned, to a greater extent, with national ones whereas on the Wirral they're still vastly different. Peverell is a genuine marginal ward now, it'll probably start voting Labour regularly as soon as the party gets its act together (which could be a while, who knows) and even Compton is closer than it used to be. The problem for Plymouth Labour though is that their position appears to have collapsed in the northern (Moor View) wards like in the general, with the Tories getting a clean sweep this year. |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jun 9, 2021 12:41:32 GMT
What might be a bit odd on that list is where they list a seat as abolished and what looks like a successor seat as a new seat. Ie Arundel and South Downs abolished and Arundel and Littlehampton as a new seat, Beverley and Holderness abolished, Beverley and The Wolds as a new seat. They explain they regard a new seat as one which dosent contain "the larger part" of an existing seat. not sure whether they just counted wards, counted electorates in the before/after seats or both or neither, though. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2021 13:10:17 GMT
Cat Smith was mentioned upthread - does anyone have a "notional" for the new Lancaster seat?
|
|
