iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453 
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Post by iain on Jun 28, 2021 18:07:18 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Jun 28, 2021 18:15:12 GMT
Ah apologies! That does prove how different locals are to general election votes in some places. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,055
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 28, 2021 19:18:24 GMT
I’m not sure the infighting in the Labour group has had much effect on the Deeside areas. Obviously a lot in Birkenhead where the Greens have had the benefit. I assume too that these green local voters revert to Labour at a GE , as do the LibDems. I’ve not myself heard of Conservative local voters switching. Wallasey, Carlton, in this (as in much else) is an odd place! When I first moved up here and was familiarising myself with the Borough, I found it hard to understand how it was a Conservative constituency at all, though Linda Chalker was quite popular. No surprise when it turned Labour and is now solid for them. South Wirral is divided between the fairly well heeled Deeside and the industrialised Merseyside with traditional working class estates. West Wirral has possibly the wealthiest area in the region in Calday but also some mixed parts around the fringes of Hoyalke and West Kirby and some overspill estates as well. But you would I think be very surprised to tour Deeside in Wirral (comprising the bulk of the new West Wirral) to think this was a notionally Labour constituency. The vast majority of Wirral South is very comfortable suburbia/exurbia though, the 'traditional working class' estates are shoved up in the north east of the seat, are low turnout and, though they are the bedrock of the Labour vote, are completely overwhelmed by the character of the rest of the seat. If rivers10 is right about Clatterbridge (and, having seeing Labour tallying over the years at a whole range of elections, it's embarrasingly bad so I'm not taking that assertion at face value) then it does make sense in that it's her home ward, where she grew up (like me, at the same time, in the Bromborough part of Brookhurst) and I believe she still lives (a bit further north now on the outskirts of Bebington). So she would have a claim on the new Wirral West seat, apart from it taking in two wards as she actually lives in it too. Compared to the other two the seat's broken into it's her best shot locally. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,926
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Post by right on Jun 28, 2021 19:40:58 GMT
One overlooked area is where there is not necessarily a carve up and no safe seat for the MP to go to, but a radical enough change for there to be a totally new committee and a significant amount of members who don't know the MP. Deselections are rather easier that way.
One speculation was that Corbyn when he was leader may allow a boundary review in order to reshape the Parliamentary party. That didn't happen. But the Corbynites are still there and they are still organised. Is this now a chance for them to deny a few of the old guard their seats?
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Post by rivers10 on Jun 28, 2021 19:54:06 GMT
I’m not sure the infighting in the Labour group has had much effect on the Deeside areas. Obviously a lot in Birkenhead where the Greens have had the benefit. I assume too that these green local voters revert to Labour at a GE , as do the LibDems. I’ve not myself heard of Conservative local voters switching. Wallasey, Carlton, in this (as in much else) is an odd place! When I first moved up here and was familiarising myself with the Borough, I found it hard to understand how it was a Conservative constituency at all, though Linda Chalker was quite popular. No surprise when it turned Labour and is now solid for them. South Wirral is divided between the fairly well heeled Deeside and the industrialised Merseyside with traditional working class estates. West Wirral has possibly the wealthiest area in the region in Calday but also some mixed parts around the fringes of Hoyalke and West Kirby and some overspill estates as well. But you would I think be very surprised to tour Deeside in Wirral (comprising the bulk of the new West Wirral) to think this was a notionally Labour constituency. The vast majority of Wirral South is very comfortable suburbia/exurbia though, the 'traditional working class' estates are shoved up in the north east of the seat, are low turnout and, though they are the bedrock of the Labour vote, are completely overwhelmed by the character of the rest of the seat. If rivers10 is right about Clatterbridge (and, having seeing Labour tallying over the years at a whole range of elections, it's embarrasingly bad so I'm not taking that assertion at face value) then it does make sense in that it's her home ward, where she grew up (like me, at the same time, in the Bromborough part of Brookhurst) and I believe she still lives (a bit further north now on the outskirts of Bebington). So she would have a claim on the new Wirral West seat, apart from it taking in two wards as she actually lives in it too. Compared to the other two the seat's broken into it's her best shot locally. All I can say is look at the arithmetic of the results in 2017, Ali had an 18 point majority Given that yes we know Labour would have been miles ahead in both Bebington and Bromborough but the Tories were equally miles ahead in Heswall thus to get the result we did (given differential turnout as you already acknowledged) Labour had to either have comfortably carried Clatterbridge or have been as far ahead in Eastham as we were in Bromborough and Bebington. Alas we weren't, we carried Eastham comfortably but a lot of that Lib Dem vote peels off to the Tories in a GE and the local Lib Dems would tell you as such Even then we'd still have had to have been effectively tied with the Tories in Clatterbridge to get the result we did Given the profile of the ward and how close its been locally on occasion I don't know why it's so unbelievable to imagine Labour carrying it comfortably in a GE where we had an 18 point majority in the seat |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,055
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 28, 2021 22:27:28 GMT
The vast majority of Wirral South is very comfortable suburbia/exurbia though, the 'traditional working class' estates are shoved up in the north east of the seat, are low turnout and, though they are the bedrock of the Labour vote, are completely overwhelmed by the character of the rest of the seat. If rivers10 is right about Clatterbridge (and, having seeing Labour tallying over the years at a whole range of elections, it's embarrasingly bad so I'm not taking that assertion at face value) then it does make sense in that it's her home ward, where she grew up (like me, at the same time, in the Bromborough part of Brookhurst) and I believe she still lives (a bit further north now on the outskirts of Bebington). So she would have a claim on the new Wirral West seat, apart from it taking in two wards as she actually lives in it too. Compared to the other two the seat's broken into it's her best shot locally. All I can say is look at the arithmetic of the results in 2017, Ali had an 18 point majority Given that yes we know Labour would have been miles ahead in both Bebington and Bromborough but the Tories were equally miles ahead in Heswall thus to get the result we did (given differential turnout as you already acknowledged) Labour had to either have comfortably carried Clatterbridge or have been as far ahead in Eastham as we were in Bromborough and Bebington. Alas we weren't, we carried Eastham comfortably but a lot of that Lib Dem vote peels off to the Tories in a GE and the local Lib Dems would tell you as such Even then we'd still have had to have been effectively tied with the Tories in Clatterbridge to get the result we did Given the profile of the ward and how close its been locally on occasion I don't know why it's so unbelievable to imagine Labour carrying it comfortably in a GE where we had an 18 point majority in the seat And nothing I'm saying is disagreeing with the overall picture you're painting, I just don't trust Labour tallying. McGovern is from a comfortably middle class area of a comfortably middle class ward (and as I say I think she now lives in an even nicer area of the same ward) so I don't find it surprising she would have strong support particularly in the suburban east of Clatterbridge (I've no doubt that she would have swept Brookhurst and done very well in the area off Dibbensdale Road and up towards Spital as well as Raby Mere due to its vicinity to Brookhurst). The exurban/rural bits of the ward would be strongly Tory alongside the very poshest bits of Higher Bebington & Spital that fall within the ward. All in all, I think she is the perfect candidate to maximise the Labour vote in Clatterbridge, I doubt very much if this does move into West and she's not the candidate, that it would be a struggle (especially if another candidate was from the eastern part of the ward). |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 7:18:16 GMT
Marginal & Abolished
MPs that are in trouble but retirement in the area are likely to save:
1.Mike Wood (Bill Cash retiring)
2.Alan Campbell/Mary Glindon (Nick Brown retiring)
3.Andrew Percy (David Davis retiring)
In "normal trouble":
NORTH EAST
1.Richard Holden-Marginal Tory
2.Paul Howell-not even sure the Tories are notionlly ahead
3.Julie Elliot-Marginal Lab
4.Bridget Phillipson/Mary Foy-Marginal Lab+Potentially nasty selection fight
5.Ian Levy-Marginal Tory
6.Jill Mortimer-By election
7.Jacob Young-Tory marginal (But a very popular MP)
8.Alex Cunningham-Labour Marginal
9.Sharon Hodgson-Labour Marginal
NORTH WEST
10.Barbara Keeley-Lab Marginal
11.Charlotte Nichols-Lab Mrginal
12.Andy Carter-Notionaly marginaly bahind Lab
13.Mary Robinson-Con Marginal
14.Jonathan Reynolds-Lab Marginal (and was against a very bad candidate in 2019)
15.Chris Clarkson-Notionaly marginaly bahind Lab
16.Debbie Abrahams-Lab Marginal
17.Antony Higginbotham-Con Marginal
18.Margaret Greenwood-Notionaly marginaly bahind Con (and if the new leader of the Tory group Tom Anderson stands she might be in deeper trouble)
19.Mark Logan-Con Marginal
20.James Daly-Con Marginal
21.Chistian Wakeford-Con Marginal
22.James Grundy-Con Marginal
YORKSHIRE
23.Karl Turner-Notionaly marginaly bahind Con
24.Emma Hardy-Notionaly marginaly bahind Con
25.Ed Milliband-Lab Marginal
26.Rosie Winterton-Lab Marginal
27.John Healey-Lab Marginal
28.Sarah Champion-Lab Marginal
29.Olivia Blake-Lab Marginal
30.Kim Leadbeater-not even sure Labour are notionlly ahead (Can move to the new Dewsbury)
31.Judith Cummins-Lab Marginal
32.Craig Whittaker-not even sure the Tories are notionlly ahead
33.Holly Lynch-not even sure Labour are notionlly ahead
34.Robbie Moore-Con Marginal
35.Richard Burgeon-not even sure Labour are notionlly ahead
36.Stuart Andrew (Leeds NW)-Con Marginal
37.John Trickett-Lab Marginal
38.Yvette Cooper-Lab Marginal
39.Rachel Reeves (Pudsey)-Lab Marginal
40.Imram Kham-Con Marginal
WEST MIDLANDS
41.Gary Sambrook-Con Marginal
42.Nicola Richards-Notionaly marginaly bahind Lab (but I have strong doubts about St.Paul remaining after consultation)
43.Pat McFadden-Lab Marginal
44.Stuart Anderson-Con Marginal
45.Taiwo Owatemi-Lab Marginal
46.Zarah Sultana-Lab Marginal
47.Jo Gideon-Con Marginal
48.Matt Western-Lab Marginal
EAST MIDLANDS
49.Toby Perkins-Lab Marginal
50.Amanda Sollaway-Con Marginal
51.Robert Largan-Con Marginal
52.Liz Kendall-Lab Marginal
53.Karl McCartney-Con Marginal
54.Darren Henry-Con Marginal (but I will be suprised if he doesnt get Kimberley back and lose Beeston)
55.Tom Randall-Con Marginal (but Lab would lose Coaker's personal vote)
56.Alex Norris-Lab Marginal (but I will be suprised if he doesnt lose Kimberley back and Notts S. gains Beeston)
ANGLIA
57.Mohammad Yasin-Lab Marginal
58.Anthony Brown-Con Marginal (but will likely go to St.Neots)
59.Paul Bristow-Con Marginal
60.Dean Russel-Con Marginal
61.Chloe Smith-Con Marginal
SOUTH WEST
62.Cherilyn Mackrory-Con Marginal
63.Alex Chalk-Con Marginal
64.Siobhan Baillie-Con Marginal
LONDON
65.Jon Cruddas-Lab Marginal (can chickan run to Barking if Hodge retires)
66.Mike Freer-Not even sure the Tories are ahead (I doubt the review in Barnet would stand scrutiny)
67.Matt Offord-Not even sure the Tories are ahead (I doubt the review in Barnet would stand scrutiny)
68.Barry Gardiner-Lab Marginal
69.Bob Stewart-Con Marginal (Likely retirement)
70.Sarah Jones-Notionaly marginaly bahind Con (and Croydon Labour + the borough itself have imploded since 2019)
71.Bambos Charalambos-Lab Marginal
72.Clive Efford-Notionaly marginaly bahind Con
73.Stephen Hammond-Con Marginal
74.Elliott Colburn-Con Marginal (but alot of the LD vote was a personal one)
75.IDS-Con Marginal (Likely retirement)
76.Fleur Anderson-Lab Marginal
SOUTH EAST
77.Steve Baker-Con Marginal (also an unpopular MP)
78.Iain Stewart-Con Marginal
79.Sarah Green-by election
80.Caroline Ansel-Con Marginal
81.Sally-Ann Hart-Con Marginal
82.Maria Caulfield-Con Marginal
83.Rosie Duffield-Lab Marginal
84.Angela Richardson-Con Marginal
85.Dominic Raab-Con Marginal (Unpopular MP)
Selection fights with no retirements in the area:
86.Ally McGovern against the world (Greenwood,Whitley,Madders)
87.Bridget Phillipson vs Mary Foy
Dead in the water:
88.Falicity Buchan-Labour ahead by a mile.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,813
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Post by andrea on Jul 10, 2021 8:11:03 GMT
2.Alan Campbell/Mary Glindon (Nick Brown retiring)
Selection fights with no retirements in the area:
85.Ally Mcgoven against the world (Greenwood,Whitley,Madders)
86.Bridget Phillipson vs Mary Foy
Phillipson could also challenge Sharon Hodgson for Washington & Sunderland South West. It will be interesting the order in which NEC decides the 2 selections would take place (if the proposed seats remain as such). After the last boundary review, Hodgson went against David Clelland for Gateshead. He won. And then the next year he announced retirement. In the meantime Hodgson got Washington and Sunderland West in an open selection (with Philippson as runner up). In North East they need to fit Kathrine McKinnell somewhere. She can challenge Chi Onwurah for the proposed Newcastle West. She doesn't have a 40% claim on Newcastle North. Mary Glindon has it. If Glindon (who will be 67 in 2024) decides to retire, I guess McKinnell would win an open selection in North comfortably. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 8:27:57 GMT
2.Alan Campbell/Mary Glindon (Nick Brown retiring)
Selection fights with no retirements in the area:
85.Ally Mcgoven against the world (Greenwood,Whitley,Madders)
86.Bridget Phillipson vs Mary Foy
Phillipson could also challenge Sharon Hodgson for Washington & Sunderland South West. It will be interesting the order in which NEC decides the 2 selections would take place (if the proposed seats remain as such). After the last boundary review, Hodgson went against David Clelland for Gateshead. He won. And then the next year he announced retirement. In the meantime Hodgson got Washington and Sunderland West in an open selection (with Philippson as runner up). In North East they need to fit Kathrine McKinnell somewhere. She can challenge Chi Onwurah for the proposed Newcastle West. She doesn't have a 40% claim on Newcastle North. Mary Glindon has it. If Glindon (who will be 67 in 2024) decides to retire, I guess McKinnell would win an open selection in North comfortably. But Phillipson is a much better idiological fit in Durham. I agree with you on Glindon but i think it is more likely Nick brown retires and McKinnell moves to West. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,813
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Post by andrea on Jul 10, 2021 8:55:40 GMT
Phillipson could also challenge Sharon Hodgson for Washington & Sunderland South West. It will be interesting the order in which NEC decides the 2 selections would take place (if the proposed seats remain as such). After the last boundary review, Hodgson went against David Clelland for Gateshead. He won. And then the next year he announced retirement. In the meantime Hodgson got Washington and Sunderland West in an open selection (with Philippson as runner up). In North East they need to fit Kathrine McKinnell somewhere. She can challenge Chi Onwurah for the proposed Newcastle West. She doesn't have a 40% claim on Newcastle North. Mary Glindon has it. If Glindon (who will be 67 in 2024) decides to retire, I guess McKinnell would win an open selection in North comfortably. But Phillipson is a much better idiological fit in Durham. I agree with you on Glindon but i think it is more likely Nick brown retires and McKinnell moves to West. If Phillipson doesn't have any preference in terms of where she lives and given the 2 seats are roughly at the same level in terms of starting majority, I would suppose the Durham selection would be the first because it would be a way to try and get rid of a Campaign Group MP. In London, Helen Hayes is basically seatless as Dulwich and West Norwood has been split in many ways. There are new seats around her which will likely won't have a claim from another sitting MP. Open selections in London are more competitive than elsewhere, but I guess she can land somewhere between Norwood and Clapham & Brixton. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 10, 2021 8:59:49 GMT
But Phillipson is a much better idiological fit in Durham. I agree with you on Glindon but i think it is more likely Nick brown retires and McKinnell moves to West. If Phillipson doesn't have any preference in terms of where she lives and given the 2 seats are roughly at the same level in terms of starting majority, I would suppose the Durham selection would be the first because it would be a way to try and get rid of a Campaign Group MP. In London, Helen Hayes is basically seatless as Dulwich and West Norwood has been split in many ways. There are new seats around her which will likely won't have a claim from another sitting MP. Open selections in London are more competitive than elsewhere, but I guess she can land somewhere between Norwood and Clapham & Brixton. Tends not to work like that, though. Most people who will vote will be the armchair members and the ideology of the individual may matter less than whether they know her or identify with her more broadly. It may simply come down to membership numbers. Phillipson is a particularly awful example of the wagging finger variety of Labour MP - a sort of Harperson in training - so given what Labour is like at the moment that may assist her. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 9:22:42 GMT
If Phillipson doesn't have any preference in terms of where she lives and given the 2 seats are roughly at the same level in terms of starting majority, I would suppose the Durham selection would be the first because it would be a way to try and get rid of a Campaign Group MP. In London, Helen Hayes is basically seatless as Dulwich and West Norwood has been split in many ways. There are new seats around her which will likely won't have a claim from another sitting MP. Open selections in London are more competitive than elsewhere, but I guess she can land somewhere between Norwood and Clapham & Brixton. Tends not to work like that, though. Most people who will vote will be the armchair members and the ideology of the individual may matter less than whether they know her or identify with her more broadly. It may simply come down to membership numbers. Phillipson is a particularly awful example of the wagging finger variety of Labour MP - a sort of Harperson in training - so given what Labour is like at the moment that may assist her. She has showed herself in the last couple of years of being an increasingly bad fit in Sunderland south to the point to that I think she might lose Washingon for Labour if she beats Hodgson... |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 9:28:00 GMT
But Phillipson is a much better idiological fit in Durham. I agree with you on Glindon but i think it is more likely Nick brown retires and McKinnell moves to West. If Phillipson doesn't have any preference in terms of where she lives and given the 2 seats are roughly at the same level in terms of starting majority, I would suppose the Durham selection would be the first because it would be a way to try and get rid of a Campaign Group MP. In London, Helen Hayes is basically seatless as Dulwich and West Norwood has been split in many ways. There are new seats around her which will likely won't have a claim from another sitting MP. Open selections in London are more competitive than elsewhere, but I guess she can land somewhere between Norwood and Clapham & Brixton. My guess is that Phillipson would prefer Posh and remainy Durham to Washington. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 10, 2021 9:30:48 GMT
If Phillipson doesn't have any preference in terms of where she lives and given the 2 seats are roughly at the same level in terms of starting majority, I would suppose the Durham selection would be the first because it would be a way to try and get rid of a Campaign Group MP. In London, Helen Hayes is basically seatless as Dulwich and West Norwood has been split in many ways. There are new seats around her which will likely won't have a claim from another sitting MP. Open selections in London are more competitive than elsewhere, but I guess she can land somewhere between Norwood and Clapham & Brixton. My guess is that Phillipson would prefer Posh and remainy Durham to Washington. Whether Durham would prefer her is another question, though. It's often the middle class academic seats more likely to want a left wing MP. The right wing dominance of Labour in the north-east is longstanding and wasn't based on middle class party members. More the old right wing union machine |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 9:41:16 GMT
My guess is that Phillipson would prefer Posh and remainy Durham to Washington. Whether Durham would prefer her is another question, though. It's often the middle class academic seats more likely to want a left wing MP. The right wing dominance of Labour in the north-east is longstanding and wasn't based on middle class party members. More the old right wing union machine I agree, but given that both Hodgson & Phillipson are Starmer allies one would expect the leadership to make sure that the both have a seat and given the fact that hodgeson doesnt have 40% in Jarrow (which would have been the best solution in my opinion) Foy is the one they will need to deselect. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 10, 2021 9:51:17 GMT
Whether Durham would prefer her is another question, though. It's often the middle class academic seats more likely to want a left wing MP. The right wing dominance of Labour in the north-east is longstanding and wasn't based on middle class party members. More the old right wing union machine I agree, but given that both Hodgson & Phillipson are Starmer allies one would expect the leadership to make sure that the both have a seat and given the fact that hodgeson doesnt have 40% in Jarrow (which would have been the best solution in my opinion) Foy is the one they will need to deselect. It's not always down to the leadership, though. The membership doesn't always play ball. Actually the best example of this is the number of right wing MPs who survived despite having a lot of local critics - because the less active members, who had largely voted for Corbyn, didn't want to deselect their MP. Another important thing to remember is that turnout isnt that high and so local organization can make a difference. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 9:54:01 GMT
I agree, but given that both Hodgson & Phillipson are Starmer allies one would expect the leadership to make sure that the both have a seat and given the fact that hodgeson doesnt have 40% in Jarrow (which would have been the best solution in my opinion) Foy is the one they will need to deselect. It's not always down to the leadership, though. The membership doesn't always play ball. Actually the best example of this is the number of right wing MPs who survived despite having a lot of local critics - because the less active members, who had largely voted for Corbyn, didn't want to deselect their MP. Another important thing to remember is that turnout isnt that high and so local organization can make a difference. What I was saying is that I would be suprised if Phillipson went to Washington before Durham given the current situation. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 10, 2021 10:04:12 GMT
It's not always down to the leadership, though. The membership doesn't always play ball. Actually the best example of this is the number of right wing MPs who survived despite having a lot of local critics - because the less active members, who had largely voted for Corbyn, didn't want to deselect their MP. Another important thing to remember is that turnout isnt that high and so local organization can make a difference. What I was saying is that I would be suprised if Phillipson went to Washington before Durham given the current situation. I suppose it may depend on how prominent the EU issue is - has she gone full-on rejoin or is he being loyal? Certainly her stance appeared to be considerably separate from her leave voting seat - not so much being a Remainer but the level of fervour.... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2021 10:10:33 GMT
There is no guarantee the "new" Batley seat will survive the consultation period, and even if it does Leadbeater might fancy her chances in a more "normal" electoral situation. Plus she fairly clearly wants to represent her "own" area and would have little interest in "carpet-bagging" to somewhere notionally safer.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 10, 2021 10:13:56 GMT
There is no guarantee the "new" Batley seat will survive the consultation period, and even if it does Leadbeater might fancy her chances in a more "normal" electoral situation. Plus she fairly clearly wants to represent her "own" area and would have little interest in "carpet-bagging" to somewhere notionally safer. It's going to be a marginal no matter what, so quite why she wouldn't stand I don't get at all |
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