Post by YL on Jun 1, 2024 6:51:36 GMT
Full details of this MRP are at www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html
Note that although the headline voting figures had the Tories on 19%, they re-weighted to an average of recent polls for the MRP, putting them on 23%.
Notwithstanding some doubts I have about MRPs with this sort of sample size, some observations:
- Lib Dems hold all their by-election gains
- "Oth" (presumably Zadrozny) close in Ashfield
- "Oth" (presumably Galloway) actually ahead in Rochdale (though the seat is shown as Labour); I suspect they may be handling that strange by-election in a way which doesn't take account of the Labour candidate being disowned.
- No real sign of any danger for Labour in Birmingham or Bradford
- Greens narrowly hold Brighton Pavilion and comfortably take Bristol Central
- Labour winning all sorts of places, but that's inevitable with the headline figures
On the "tactical voting" changes, there are a number of patterns:
- Some seats show the predictable pattern of being Tory without it and Lib Dem with it, e.g. Chippenham, North Cornwall, South Cotswolds.
- Some seats are actually Labour without it and Tory with. In some cases I think this is because the model thinks Labour will come from third to first without it, but tactical voting for the Lib Dems will move some votes from Lab to Lib Dem without putting the latter ahead; Bicester & Woodstock is an example of this. But I think tactical voting by Reform UK supporters for the Tories is also involved here, e.g. South Northamptonshire, which is shown as Lab 40% Con 40% without tactical voting, but with it as a Tory hold.
- Some seats are Labour without it and Lib Dem with, presumably again seats where the model thinks Labour go from third to first without it, but tactical voting for the Lib Dems gives the seat to them instead, e.g. Hazel Grove, St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire, Mid Sussex.
- Ynys Môn is shown as Plaid without tactical voting and Labour with it; I'm not sure what is going on here (but I wouldn't trust this sort of thing on Ynys Môn anyway).
- In Scotland a handful of seats, e.g. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, are shown as Labour without tactical voting and SNP with it. I think this is because it thinks some anti-Tory voters will unnecessarily tactically vote SNP based on 2019 figures in seats where it has Labour winning from third.
Note that although the headline voting figures had the Tories on 19%, they re-weighted to an average of recent polls for the MRP, putting them on 23%.
Notwithstanding some doubts I have about MRPs with this sort of sample size, some observations:
- Lib Dems hold all their by-election gains
- "Oth" (presumably Zadrozny) close in Ashfield
- "Oth" (presumably Galloway) actually ahead in Rochdale (though the seat is shown as Labour); I suspect they may be handling that strange by-election in a way which doesn't take account of the Labour candidate being disowned.
- No real sign of any danger for Labour in Birmingham or Bradford
- Greens narrowly hold Brighton Pavilion and comfortably take Bristol Central
- Labour winning all sorts of places, but that's inevitable with the headline figures
On the "tactical voting" changes, there are a number of patterns:
- Some seats show the predictable pattern of being Tory without it and Lib Dem with it, e.g. Chippenham, North Cornwall, South Cotswolds.
- Some seats are actually Labour without it and Tory with. In some cases I think this is because the model thinks Labour will come from third to first without it, but tactical voting for the Lib Dems will move some votes from Lab to Lib Dem without putting the latter ahead; Bicester & Woodstock is an example of this. But I think tactical voting by Reform UK supporters for the Tories is also involved here, e.g. South Northamptonshire, which is shown as Lab 40% Con 40% without tactical voting, but with it as a Tory hold.
- Some seats are Labour without it and Lib Dem with, presumably again seats where the model thinks Labour go from third to first without it, but tactical voting for the Lib Dems gives the seat to them instead, e.g. Hazel Grove, St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire, Mid Sussex.
- Ynys Môn is shown as Plaid without tactical voting and Labour with it; I'm not sure what is going on here (but I wouldn't trust this sort of thing on Ynys Môn anyway).
- In Scotland a handful of seats, e.g. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, are shown as Labour without tactical voting and SNP with it. I think this is because it thinks some anti-Tory voters will unnecessarily tactically vote SNP based on 2019 figures in seats where it has Labour winning from third.
