nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,456
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 10, 2023 12:26:00 GMT
Electoral Calculus were involved, so they could have used theirs. Well that's a bit of a red flag in itself tbh  Flag or rag? |
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 10, 2023 22:53:05 GMT
To some extent I am relying on my hunch that a Westminster GE campaign will be helpful to Labour v SNP - particularly when there are strong indications that the Tories are likely to be ousted. Today Redfield & Wilton have released a Scotland poll giving SNP 37% Lab 34% Con 17%. I can certainly see those Lab/SNP figures being reversed in the course of a campaign. I have a sense that the new First Minister will not be a vote winner for his party. it's a bit more than a hunch. In 2017, we saw that irrespective of positions for or against independence there was a body of voters who had voted SNP in 2015 who now thought that (probably late on in that campaign) Labour had a chance of Britain-wide success, generally wanted Labour to do well nationwide, and thus switched their votes in their Westminster Scottish constituency to that party, hence the modest but definite gains achieved in that elections (which were of course all reversed in 2019). There is quite likely to be a similar body of voters, who bear the SNP no ill-will but who will in the end decide that, if Labour is to form a government, they want to contribute towards that. I will be fairly surprised if Labour wins Britain-wide but is still behind the SNP north of the border, but also very surprised if the SNP collapse is of the wholesale variety predicted by for example utracalthing. Except in 2017 Corbyn said he would back Indyref2. Starmer has ruled it out apparently for ever (like the Tories and Lib Dems). So unless the constitutional question goes away then I can't see why SNP sympathetic Labour supporters will vote for a right of centre unionist option which is what Starmer has turned Labour into to win the seats he needs in England. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 3, 2023 13:51:19 GMT
LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 23% (-1)
LDM: 10% (-2)
RFM: 8% (+2)
GRN: 7% (+1)
SNP: 4% (=)
Via @findoutnowuk, 31 Oct.
Changes w/ 31 Jul - 4 Aug.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 15, 2023 20:13:25 GMT
Lab 46% (+2)
Con 19% (-4)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Reform 10% (+2)
Greens 8% (+1)
SNP 5% (+1)
Via @findoutnowuk
2,198 GB adults, 13-14 Nov
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Post by batman on Nov 15, 2023 20:35:44 GMT
not all that different from the People poll, and quite a large sample. Note also it's sampled after the reshuffle. I don't think the Tories will poll as little as 19% in the general election, but these polling figures are really dire. It is hard to believe that the Tories are polling 19% in Britain as a whole but 24% in Wales. The Labour figure however probably isn't far out as things are at the moment.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Feb 14, 2024 17:59:45 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 14, 2024 18:04:23 GMT
Anything below 100 seats will be a big blow to the Tories. 80 isn't the worst estimate I've seen.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Feb 14, 2024 19:19:19 GMT
The SNP figure looks far too high. The party will do well to win 20 seats.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Feb 14, 2024 19:48:51 GMT
Bristol Central: Green
Ashfield: Other (Zadrozny I assume)
Sheffield Hallam: Lib Dem
Also this does appear to be taking account of by-elections somehow; I can't imagine that it'd be showing North Shropshire as Lib Dem if it weren't. (I suspect it may well be right on that one, mind.)
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Post by batman on Feb 14, 2024 20:36:15 GMT
I'll be very surprised if the LDs win Sheffield Hallam. Labour won this in 2019 despite a ) their lamentable standing in the country as a whole and b ) the obvious complete unfitness to serve of the previous briefly-Labour MP. Olivia Blake should enjoy a modest first-time incumbency boost, although perhaps not much of one, plus Labour is much stronger nationally. They have had a decent & functional Labour MP for the first time & it would be surprising if she were now ousted.
In Ashfield I suspect Lee Anderson will be third.
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Post by afleitch on Feb 14, 2024 20:37:02 GMT
The SNP figure looks far too high. The party will do well to win 20 seats. I mean it's high, but it's based on the model limiting losses to Labour and picking up (all) Tory seats. Which is also what YouGov picked up on it's MRP. Whatever they are picking up, it suggests that the SNP's vote spread is perhaps more efficient than a straight swing would suggest. |
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Post by afleitch on Feb 14, 2024 20:52:16 GMT
Though oddly it looks like they are using the current seats, not the new ones.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Feb 14, 2024 21:00:10 GMT
Though oddly it looks like they are using the current seats, not the new ones. They're not: make sure you're looking at the 2024 map not the 2019 one. |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Feb 14, 2024 21:00:10 GMT
Though oddly it looks like they are using the current seats, not the new ones. No it is the new ones - what made you think otherwise? |
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Post by afleitch on Feb 14, 2024 21:21:31 GMT
Though oddly it looks like they are using the current seats, not the new ones. No it is the new ones - what made you think otherwise? I downloaded the data from the data wrap and it has the old seat names. Glad it's the up to date seats. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 14, 2024 21:23:05 GMT
An interesting note on a sample size of 18,000 - the Margin of Error is +/- 0.75% rather than the usual 3%. Doesn't change House Effect mind.
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 14, 2024 21:27:34 GMT
Bristol Central: Green Ashfield: Other (Zadrozny I assume) Sheffield Hallam: Lib Dem Also this does appear to be taking account of by-elections somehow; I can't imagine that it'd be showing North Shropshire as Lib Dem if it weren't. (I suspect it may well be right on that one, mind.) They also have the Greens coming extremely close in Sheffield Central (46% Labour 40% Green). More curiously they have some reasonable Green performances in some seats where they have traditionally performed poorly - Bradford West (23%), Leicester South (22%), Birmingham Ladywood (21%), Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley (19%). This could just be a quirk of their methodology, but these are all seats with a very large Muslim population, and in some cases a reasonably large population of "trendy" white graduates, so may be picking up a Gaza related swing? For what it's worth they have Waveney Valley as Lab 33, Con 29, Grn 16, Reform 11, LD 10; if that came to fruition it'd be a rare case of five different parties winning more than 10% of the vote. When was the last time that happened (Norwich South, Bristol South, and the Isle of Wight all came fairly close in 2015)? |
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Post by grumpyguy on Feb 14, 2024 22:21:18 GMT
This latest FON poll seems to have an improved methodology (byelection results, for example) but I see 3 problems remaining; local factors/campaigning (eg Waveney Valley, a Green target seat, based on local election success), over-reliance on uniform national swing, and something else I can't quite pin down. I wouldn't have thought for instance that Gove and Steve Baker would have survived a massacre like this but that Geoffrey Cox would not. If this is a case of divided opposition producing counter-intuitive outcomes (something which might also apply in Sheffield Hallam or Scotland), then it doesn't seem to be happening consistently. Maybe EC or FON has tried to make allowance for tactical voting. If so, I don't think they've got it right.
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 14, 2024 22:38:32 GMT
Bristol Central: Green Ashfield: Other (Zadrozny I assume) Sheffield Hallam: Lib Dem Also this does appear to be taking account of by-elections somehow; I can't imagine that it'd be showing North Shropshire as Lib Dem if it weren't. (I suspect it may well be right on that one, mind.) They also have the Greens coming extremely close in Sheffield Central (46% Labour 40% Green). More curiously they have some reasonable Green performances in some seats where they have traditionally performed poorly - Bradford West (23%), Leicester South (22%), Birmingham Ladywood (21%), Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley (19%). This could just be a quirk of their methodology, but these are all seats with a very large Muslim population, and in some cases a reasonably large population of "trendy" white graduates, so may be picking up a Gaza related swing? For what it's worth they have Waveney Valley as Lab 33, Con 29, Grn 16, Reform 11, LD 10; if that came to fruition it'd be a rare case of five different parties winning more than 10% of the vote. When was the last time that happened (Norwich South, Bristol South, and the Isle of Wight all came fairly close in 2015)? I understand Waveney is a green target. Leicester South is an interesting one. It's a real mix bag. There is a huge student population in Leicester. I think it's 25,000 at DMU alone. Many will be remote students. There are many south Asian students from Leicester who attended DMU so they can stay in Leicester for study. Not all will be in South though |
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Post by evergreenadam on Feb 14, 2024 23:18:42 GMT
Chichester - Labour
I don’t think so.
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