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Post by manchesterman on Feb 14, 2024 23:21:33 GMT
I'll be very surprised if the LDs win Sheffield Hallam. Labour won this in 2019 despite a ) their lamentable standing in the country as a whole and b ) the obvious complete unfitness to serve of the previous briefly-Labour MP. Olivia Blake should enjoy a modest first-time incumbency boost, although perhaps not much of one, plus Labour is much stronger nationally. They have had a decent & functional Labour MP for the first time & it would be surprising if she were now ousted.
In Ashfield I suspect Lee Anderson will be third.Electoral Calculus, as you probably know, ranks all parties in each seat with a percentage chance of victory.
It had Labour at 44% chance Reform UK 30% Ind 13% with Lee Anderson in 4th on a 11% shot!
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Feb 14, 2024 23:31:17 GMT
This is in the wrong section. Electoral Calculus isn’t a poll (it’s a Labour-aligned misinformation channel, helping the Tories in places like Chichester).
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 14, 2024 23:35:53 GMT
This is in the wrong section. Electoral Calculus isn’t a poll (it’s a Labour-aligned misinformation channel, helping the Tories in places like Chichester). Martin Baxter is a tory isnt he? |
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 14, 2024 23:41:40 GMT
Problem with Hallam is it's the kind of seat that Corbyn and a 2nd referendum wasn't as much of a drag. Oliver Coppard once told us that students plus public sector workers make up 39% of the vote here.
The split opposition help labour too. Oliver is convinced Jared's appeal in 2017 was he was an unknown quantity. Oliver said there were a significant number of Tories who voted Lib Dem in 2015 to stop him.
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Post by kevinf on Feb 15, 2024 0:18:22 GMT
Folks, get a grip. The Tories aren’t going down to 80 sears FFS.
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YL
Non-Aligned
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Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Feb 15, 2024 7:50:27 GMT
Problem with Hallam is it's the kind of seat that Corbyn and a 2nd referendum wasn't as much of a drag. Oliver Coppard once told us that students plus public sector workers make up 39% of the vote here. The split opposition help labour too. Oliver is convinced Jared's appeal in 2017 was he was an unknown quantity. Oliver said there were a significant number of Tories who voted Lib Dem in 2015 to stop him. There is no doubt that there was a substantial Tory tactical vote for Nick Clegg in 2015 which went back home in 2017 and 2019, and that does give some uncertainty, because if 10% of votes shift from Tory to Lib Dem again it's going to be hard for Labour to hold the seat. I doubt it'll be that extreme, and national trends ought to mean Labour pick up a few votes of their own, so one MRP is not going to change my guess of a Labour hold, but ultimately a seat as middle class as this one is not likely to be secure for Labour. Regarding Sheffield Central, it does have some similarities to Bristol Central (though its demographics are not as extreme) and also has a substantial Muslim population. So if the Greens are winning Bristol Central and doing well in Muslim areas they could be in contention, and of course they also have a local base. |
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Post by batman on Feb 15, 2024 8:58:43 GMT
This is in the wrong section. Electoral Calculus isn’t a poll (it’s a Labour-aligned misinformation channel, helping the Tories in places like Chichester). it is a poll. It has clearly shown national voting intentions as well as an attempt (often misguided) to forecast seat by seat. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 15, 2024 11:30:09 GMT
This is in the wrong section. Electoral Calculus isn’t a poll (it’s a Labour-aligned misinformation channel, helping the Tories in places like Chichester). Electoral Calculus is first and foremost rubbish, its supposed political biases are secondary. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 15, 2024 11:59:29 GMT
Problem with Hallam is it's the kind of seat that Corbyn and a 2nd referendum wasn't as much of a drag. Oliver Coppard once told us that students plus public sector workers make up 39% of the vote here. The split opposition help labour too. Oliver is convinced Jared's appeal in 2017 was he was an unknown quantity. Oliver said there were a significant number of Tories who voted Lib Dem in 2015 to stop him. There is no doubt that there was a substantial Tory tactical vote for Nick Clegg in 2015 which went back home in 2017 and 2019, and that does give some uncertainty, because if 10% of votes shift from Tory to Lib Dem again it's going to be hard for Labour to hold the seat. I doubt it'll be that extreme, and national trends ought to mean Labour pick up a few votes of their own, so one MRP is not going to change my guess of a Labour hold, but ultimately a seat as middle class as this one is not likely to be secure for Labour. Regarding Sheffield Central, it does have some similarities to Bristol Central (though its demographics are not as extreme) and also has a substantial Muslim population. So if the Greens are winning Bristol Central and doing well in Muslim areas they could be in contention, and of course they also have a local base. central I think is less of a concern imo from what I've heard the Green vote is a core vote that does well when the turnout falls. People I've spoken to think if the election is in may could be bad news for the local greens |
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Post by bridgyboy on Feb 15, 2024 12:18:26 GMT
Bristol Central: Green Ashfield: Other (Zadrozny I assume) Sheffield Hallam: Lib Dem Also this does appear to be taking account of by-elections somehow; I can't imagine that it'd be showing North Shropshire as Lib Dem if it weren't. (I suspect it may well be right on that one, mind.) Ok Bristol Central is slightly different to Bristol West but I cannot see Thangam Debbonaire surrendering the best part of a 29,000 majority on the day of a Labour landslide |
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Post by loderingo on Feb 15, 2024 12:52:21 GMT
Bristol Central: Green Ashfield: Other (Zadrozny I assume) Sheffield Hallam: Lib Dem Also this does appear to be taking account of by-elections somehow; I can't imagine that it'd be showing North Shropshire as Lib Dem if it weren't. (I suspect it may well be right on that one, mind.) Ok Bristol Central is slightly different to Bristol West but I cannot see Thangam Debbonaire surrendering the best part of a 29,000 majority on the day of a Labour landslide Look at the majority in 2015 though - only 5.5k. Bristol W is the sort of place that Lab did well in because Corbyn was the leader. They are less likely to do well with a more centrist leader like Starmer. Also worth noting that Bristol Central sheds West's two most ethnically diverse wards of Easton and Lawrence Hill (EC estimates that Central is 78% ethnic white vs. 73% for West) |
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YL
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Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Feb 15, 2024 16:03:51 GMT
There is no doubt that there was a substantial Tory tactical vote for Nick Clegg in 2015 which went back home in 2017 and 2019, and that does give some uncertainty, because if 10% of votes shift from Tory to Lib Dem again it's going to be hard for Labour to hold the seat. I doubt it'll be that extreme, and national trends ought to mean Labour pick up a few votes of their own, so one MRP is not going to change my guess of a Labour hold, but ultimately a seat as middle class as this one is not likely to be secure for Labour. Regarding Sheffield Central, it does have some similarities to Bristol Central (though its demographics are not as extreme) and also has a substantial Muslim population. So if the Greens are winning Bristol Central and doing well in Muslim areas they could be in contention, and of course they also have a local base. central I think is less of a concern imo from what I've heard the Green vote is a core vote that does well when the turnout falls. People I've spoken to think if the election is in may could be bad news for the local greens Yes, I more meant that it was consistent with the rest of the MRP than that I think Labour are in real trouble there. |
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YL
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Post by YL on May 30, 2024 12:00:42 GMT
Another Electoral Calculus/FindOutNow MRP coming 9pm tomorrow, apparently.
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on May 31, 2024 20:06:14 GMT
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iain
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Post by iain on May 31, 2024 20:35:12 GMT
Another Electoral Calculus/FindOutNow MRP coming 9pm tomorrow, apparently. Headline figures show: Labour - 476 Conservative - 66 Lib Dem - 59 SNP - 17 Plaid - 3 Green - 2 |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on May 31, 2024 21:06:42 GMT
Another Electoral Calculus/FindOutNow MRP coming 9pm tomorrow, apparently. Headline figures show: Labour - 476 Conservative - 66 Lib Dem - 59 SNP - 17 Plaid - 3 Green - 2 There are two versions, one with a tactical voting model, giving the above figures, and one without giving Lab 493 Con 72 Lib Dem 39 SNP 22 Plaid 4 Green 2 I haven't seen full seat by seat figures yet. |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 31, 2024 21:12:19 GMT
Why would tactical voting reduce Labour's total?
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YL
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Post by YL on May 31, 2024 21:15:21 GMT
Why would tactical voting reduce Labour's total? I suspect because of tactical voting for the Lib Dems in seats where they were second in 2019 but where the other version of the model predicts that Labour would go from third to first. |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 31, 2024 21:17:42 GMT
Why would tactical voting reduce Labour's total? I suspect because of tactical voting for the Lib Dems in seats where they were second in 2019 but where the other version of the model predicts that Labour would go from third to first. Labour is likely to jump from third to first - indeed in Scotland from fourth to first - under these circumstances. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 1, 2024 0:13:21 GMT
FWIW the percentages are Lab 46 Con 19 Ref 12 LD 10 Green 8
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