graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Aug 9, 2023 12:33:21 GMT
The Scottish figures, if you use the seat percentages to get actual votes give The Tories 14%, Labour 31% the Lib Dems 7% and the SNP 39%. Not completely out of line with where things could be given we've not had polling in a month. Reform are given exactly 0% in Scotland by the model and the Greens 5% which cushions the Tories somewhat. In a GE I suspect the Labour and SNP figures shown there are more likely to be reversed. |
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Aug 9, 2023 12:53:15 GMT
The Scottish figures, if you use the seat percentages to get actual votes give The Tories 14%, Labour 31% the Lib Dems 7% and the SNP 39%. Not completely out of line with where things could be given we've not had polling in a month. Reform are given exactly 0% in Scotland by the model and the Greens 5% which cushions the Tories somewhat. In a GE I suspect the Labour and SNP figures shown there are more likely to be reversed. I mean we can all suspect. It's really an issue of polling. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 9, 2023 13:07:34 GMT
Channel 4 News have not attempted even to thinly veil their political agenda and biases for at least a couple of decades now Likewise the Daily Mail, Express and Telegraph. Readers of the right wing press only ever critisise bias when it's not in their favour. What is the collective noun for non sequiturs? |
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Aug 9, 2023 14:02:29 GMT
Likewise the Daily Mail, Express and Telegraph. Readers of the right wing press only ever critisise bias when it's not in their favour. What is the collective noun for non sequiturs? A Brexiteer of non sequiturs. |
|
carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,779
Member is Online
|
Post by carolus on Aug 9, 2023 14:17:23 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 9, 2023 14:59:52 GMT
Likewise the Daily Mail, Express and Telegraph. Readers of the right wing press only ever critisise bias when it's not in their favour. What is the collective noun for non sequiturs? An inchoateness |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 9, 2023 17:28:17 GMT
If they commissioned it, that surely becomes more understandable? It’s the fact that they’ve chosen to commission it several months, possibly over a year before the general election, using a projection at the upper end of Labour’s poll leads giving them over 450 seats - then splashing it all over their programme. It does feel like they’ve got a thinly veiled anti government agenda by milking it like this. your contributions here are usually measured and reasonable and this comes as a bit of a surprise rant. It's really pretty simple; Channel 4 News have commissioned the poll, and it's hardly surprising that they should choose to feature it fairly prominently. It is quite unusual for opinion polls to hit the news headlines on the TV but, then, they aren't usually commissioned by TV news programmes. The media in the UK are hardly noted for their pro-Labour bias in general and it seems that you are rather overplaying an instance when one of the channels is apparently not very pro-Conservative. For years we used to have to listen to the various TV news programmes talking about "Ken Livingstone, the left-wing leader of the Greater London Council" ; they never said, for balance, "Mrs Thatcher, the right-wing Prime Minister" or such like. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
Member is Online
|
Post by YL on Aug 9, 2023 17:37:01 GMT
Not that it will make an enormous amount of difference, but it's a bit disappointing that they used the old boundaries. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2023 17:51:48 GMT
I suspect that will be the case until the new ones actually become law (which they still aren't yet)
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Aug 9, 2023 18:04:22 GMT
I suspect that will be the case until the new ones actually become law (which they still aren't yet) The new boundaries will now apply automatically as Parliamentary approval is no longer needed. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2023 18:06:12 GMT
I know that, but they have still not been signed into law by His Majesty - something that is likely to happen next month after parliament returns.
|
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Aug 9, 2023 18:52:33 GMT
The Scottish figures, if you use the seat percentages to get actual votes give The Tories 14%, Labour 31% the Lib Dems 7% and the SNP 39%. Not completely out of line with where things could be given we've not had polling in a month. Reform are given exactly 0% in Scotland by the model and the Greens 5% which cushions the Tories somewhat. In a GE I suspect the Labour and SNP figures shown there are more likely to be reversed. On what basis? Despite the recent SNP shenanigans support for independence is almost unchanged at 45+%. And with Labour taking an increasingly unionist and right of centre positions to chase so called 'Red Wall' votes where is this vote going to go? Why would left of centre, pro indy (or more devolution powers) back Starmer's Labour when the constitution question is front and centre of Scottish debate? I think that's why the SNP vote is proving surprisingly sticky and unless Labour (and the Lib Dems) moderate their extreme unionist position it will remain so and the main vote switches will continue to be between Lab unionists and Con unionists. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Aug 9, 2023 19:08:56 GMT
In a GE I suspect the Labour and SNP figures shown there are more likely to be reversed. On what basis? Despite the recent SNP shenanigans support for independence is almost unchanged at 45+%. And with Labour taking an increasingly unionist and right of centre positions to chase so called 'Red Wall' votes where is this vote going to go? Why would left of centre, pro indy (or more devolution powers) back Starmer's Labour when the constitution question is front and centre of Scottish debate? I think that's why the SNP vote is proving surprisingly sticky and unless Labour (and the Lib Dems) moderate their extreme unionist position it will remain so and the main vote switches will continue to be between Lab unionists and Con unionists. To some extent I am relying on my hunch that a Westminster GE campaign will be helpful to Labour v SNP - particularly when there are strong indications that the Tories are likely to be ousted. Today Redfield & Wilton have released a Scotland poll giving SNP 37% Lab 34% Con 17%. I can certainly see those Lab/SNP figures being reversed in the course of a campaign. I have a sense that the new First Minister will not be a vote winner for his party. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,452 
Member is Online
|
Post by iain on Aug 9, 2023 20:06:30 GMT
Not that it will make an enormous amount of difference, but it's a bit disappointing that they used the old boundaries. An MRP will need notionals to be of any use I'd have thought. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 9, 2023 22:50:45 GMT
I suspect that will be the case until the new ones actually become law (which they still aren't yet) The new boundaries will now apply automatically as Parliamentary approval is no longer needed. Parliamentary approval is not needed, but constituency boundaries are now to be set by an Order in Council. The Privy Council has not yet approved the Order; evidently it was not drafted by the time of the 19 July Council. It is not usual to hold a Privy Council meeting in August so mid-September is when they become legally effective. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 9, 2023 23:40:42 GMT
In a GE I suspect the Labour and SNP figures shown there are more likely to be reversed. On what basis? Despite the recent SNP shenanigans support for independence is almost unchanged at 45+%. And with Labour taking an increasingly unionist and right of centre positions to chase so called 'Red Wall' votes where is this vote going to go? Why would left of centre, pro indy (or more devolution powers) back Starmer's Labour when the constitution question is front and centre of Scottish debate? I think that's why the SNP vote is proving surprisingly sticky and unless Labour (and the Lib Dems) moderate their extreme unionist position it will remain so and the main vote switches will continue to be between Lab unionists and Con unionists. One cannot have 'an extreme unionist position'. It does not make any sense. It is an on-off switch. One is either Unionist or seeks to break the Union and split the nation. There cannot be degrees within it. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 10, 2023 5:02:06 GMT
On what basis? Despite the recent SNP shenanigans support for independence is almost unchanged at 45+%. And with Labour taking an increasingly unionist and right of centre positions to chase so called 'Red Wall' votes where is this vote going to go? Why would left of centre, pro indy (or more devolution powers) back Starmer's Labour when the constitution question is front and centre of Scottish debate? I think that's why the SNP vote is proving surprisingly sticky and unless Labour (and the Lib Dems) moderate their extreme unionist position it will remain so and the main vote switches will continue to be between Lab unionists and Con unionists. To some extent I am relying on my hunch that a Westminster GE campaign will be helpful to Labour v SNP - particularly when there are strong indications that the Tories are likely to be ousted. Today Redfield & Wilton have released a Scotland poll giving SNP 37% Lab 34% Con 17%. I can certainly see those Lab/SNP figures being reversed in the course of a campaign. I have a sense that the new First Minister will not be a vote winner for his party. it's a bit more than a hunch. In 2017, we saw that irrespective of positions for or against independence there was a body of voters who had voted SNP in 2015 who now thought that (probably late on in that campaign) Labour had a chance of Britain-wide success, generally wanted Labour to do well nationwide, and thus switched their votes in their Westminster Scottish constituency to that party, hence the modest but definite gains achieved in that elections (which were of course all reversed in 2019). There is quite likely to be a similar body of voters, who bear the SNP no ill-will but who will in the end decide that, if Labour is to form a government, they want to contribute towards that. I will be fairly surprised if Labour wins Britain-wide but is still behind the SNP north of the border, but also very surprised if the SNP collapse is of the wholesale variety predicted by for example utracalthing. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
Member is Online
|
Post by YL on Aug 10, 2023 7:05:27 GMT
Not that it will make an enormous amount of difference, but it's a bit disappointing that they used the old boundaries. An MRP will need notionals to be of any use I'd have thought. Electoral Calculus were involved, so they could have used theirs. |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Aug 10, 2023 10:09:10 GMT
On what basis? Despite the recent SNP shenanigans support for independence is almost unchanged at 45+%. And with Labour taking an increasingly unionist and right of centre positions to chase so called 'Red Wall' votes where is this vote going to go? Why would left of centre, pro indy (or more devolution powers) back Starmer's Labour when the constitution question is front and centre of Scottish debate? I think that's why the SNP vote is proving surprisingly sticky and unless Labour (and the Lib Dems) moderate their extreme unionist position it will remain so and the main vote switches will continue to be between Lab unionists and Con unionists. One cannot have 'an extreme unionist position'. It does not make any sense. It is an on-off switch. One is either Unionist or seeks to break the Union and split the nation. There cannot be degrees within it. Unless and until the UK adopts some form of federal system, the level of devolution/home rule constitutes a whole range of shades of grey on this issue. An extreme unionist position would presumably entail seeking to significantly reduce the level of devolution/home rule and to block any attempt at a new indyref. To the best of my knowledge this isn't the Labour or Lib Dem policy, but it is one that would accurately be described as extreme unionism. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 10, 2023 12:17:16 GMT
An MRP will need notionals to be of any use I'd have thought. Electoral Calculus were involved, so they could have used theirs. Well that's a bit of a red flag in itself tbh  |
|
