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Post by batman on Aug 8, 2023 19:33:09 GMT
It's a long time since their last poll. "It took me sooooooooooo long to find out - but I found out."
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 8, 2023 19:49:38 GMT
There is a Find out now poll of 11000 people being trailed on Channel 4 news that has headline numbers of Lab 45, Con 24 LD 12, Green7, RefUK 4 and a projection of seats of Lab 461 Con 90 SNP 38 LD 37. It would be amazing if the SNP could hold 38 if Labour did that well. The SNP figure is indeed far too high based on those GB numbers.25 seats would be optimistic for them. |
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 8, 2023 22:15:53 GMT
There is a Find out now poll of 11000 people being trailed on Channel 4 news that has headline numbers of Lab 45, Con 24 LD 12, Green7, RefUK 4 and a projection of seats of Lab 461 Con 90 SNP 38 LD 37. It would be amazing if the SNP could hold 38 if Labour did that well. The SNP figure is indeed far too high based on those GB numbers.25 seats would be optimistic for them. With an 11,000 sample there should be a big enough Scottish sub sample to work it out. Labour polling 47% in E&W and 30% in Scotland with the SNP on 40% in Scotland (3% in UK) would see something like these figures. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 8, 2023 23:03:41 GMT
The SNP figure is indeed far too high based on those GB numbers.25 seats would be optimistic for them. With an 11,000 sample there should be a big enough Scottish sub sample to work it out. Labour polling 47% in E&W and 30% in Scotland with the SNP on 40% in Scotland (3% in UK) would see something like these figures. It rather fits the pattern of earlier surveys from this pollster in 2021 and 2022 which came up with the equally unlikely suggestion that the SNP would win 58 or 59 seats. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 8, 2023 23:10:09 GMT
With an 11,000 sample there should be a big enough Scottish sub sample to work it out. Labour polling 47% in E&W and 30% in Scotland with the SNP on 40% in Scotland (3% in UK) would see something like these figures. It rather fits the pattern of earlier surveys from this pollster in 2021 and 2022 which came up with the equally unlikely suggestion that the SNP would win 58 or 59 seats. That would be especially impressive considering that Scotland as a whole will only have 57 seats next election. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 8, 2023 23:15:18 GMT
It rather fits the pattern of earlier surveys from this pollster in 2021 and 2022 which came up with the equally unlikely suggestion that the SNP would win 58 or 59 seats. That would be especially impressive considering that Scotland as a whole will only have 57 seats next election. Existing boundaries were then being used. |
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Post by afleitch on Aug 9, 2023 9:05:47 GMT
Tables are out now on ElectoralCalculus.
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Post by afleitch on Aug 9, 2023 9:38:38 GMT
Figures for Selby are in line with the by-election. As are Labour's figure in Uxbridge (but not the Tories obviously). Tory figure in Somerton also in line with the Lib Dems underestimated by 12 and Labour overestimated by 12 with tactical voting.
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Post by afleitch on Aug 9, 2023 10:16:32 GMT
The SNP figure is indeed far too high based on those GB numbers.25 seats would be optimistic for them. With an 11,000 sample there should be a big enough Scottish sub sample to work it out. Labour polling 47% in E&W and 30% in Scotland with the SNP on 40% in Scotland (3% in UK) would see something like these figures. You were spot on. 40 to 30. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2023 11:03:55 GMT
There is a Find out now poll of 11000 people being trailed on Channel 4 news that has headline numbers of Lab 45, Con 24 LD 12, Green7, RefUK 4 and a projection of seats of Lab 461 Con 90 SNP 38 LD 37. It would be amazing if the SNP could hold 38 if Labour did that well. It says a lot about Channel 4 News that they would run a story on a single opinion poll held about a year before a general election. If they commissioned it, that surely becomes more understandable? |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Aug 9, 2023 11:10:50 GMT
Figures for Selby are in line with the by-election. As are Labour's figure in Uxbridge (but not the Tories obviously). Tory figure in Somerton also in line with the Lib Dems underestimated by 12 and Labour overestimated by 12 with tactical voting. Like all MRPs this one has its issues (e.g. Harrogate & Knaresborough is the only remaining Tory seat in the north of England, held on a 30-30-28 split; some ludicrously strong Plaid results in their held seats), but it does seem like one of the more reasonable efforts produced. SNP 40%, Green 7% also seems rather optimistic from a pro-Indy point of view. However, comparing to by-election results is not a good measure of how good the MRP is, as they've used some sort of by-election filter - the Lib Dems are very close to winning North Shropshire and Tiverton, Labour barely regain Hartlepool, and (rather ridiculously in this case) Southend West is by far the safest Tory seat in the UK. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 9, 2023 11:24:42 GMT
It says a lot about Channel 4 News that they would run a story on a single opinion poll held about a year before a general election. If they commissioned it, that surely becomes more understandable? It’s the fact that they’ve chosen to commission it several months, possibly over a year before the general election, using a projection at the upper end of Labour’s poll leads giving them over 450 seats - then splashing it all over their programme. It does feel like they’ve got a thinly veiled anti government agenda by milking it like this. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2023 11:26:02 GMT
I think you are stretching it a bit here, not least because its VI findings aren't exactly out of line with most other pollsters just now.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 9, 2023 11:52:38 GMT
Is there a spreadhseet available somewhere?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 9, 2023 11:53:39 GMT
If they commissioned it, that surely becomes more understandable? It’s the fact that they’ve chosen to commission it several months, possibly over a year before the general election, using a projection at the upper end of Labour’s poll leads giving them over 450 seats - then splashing it all over their programme. It does feel like they’ve got a thinly veiled anti government agenda by milking it like this. Channel 4 News have not attempted even to thinly veil their political agenda and biases for at least a couple of decades now |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 9, 2023 12:01:11 GMT
Is there a spreadhseet available somewhere? There's always a spreadsheet somewhere  |
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Post by afleitch on Aug 9, 2023 12:11:56 GMT
Is there a spreadhseet available somewhere? On the Electoral Calculus website |
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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 9, 2023 12:22:53 GMT
Channel 4 News have not attempted even to thinly veil their political agenda and biases for at least a couple of decades now Likewise the Daily Mail, Express and Telegraph. Readers of the right wing press only ever critisise bias when it's not in their favour. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 9, 2023 12:23:11 GMT
Interesting to see that the poll gives Labour a 79% chance of winning Wimbledon. Its predicted result is Lab 40.4% Con 26.6% LD 22.2%. Useful material for Labour leaflets there.
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Post by afleitch on Aug 9, 2023 12:24:25 GMT
The Scottish figures, if you use the seat percentages to get actual votes give The Tories 14%, Labour 31% the Lib Dems 7% and the SNP 39%. Not completely out of line with where things could be given we've not had polling in a month.
Reform are given exactly 0% in Scotland by the model and the Greens 5% which cushions the Tories somewhat.
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