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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 9, 2023 18:55:26 GMT
Electoral Calculus write-upThe 45 holdouts An odd list: there are some seats there which I'd really expect the Lib Dems to take if the Tories really were having a meltdown on this sort of scale. If you look at the numbers many of them are shown as close three ways. For what it's worth I tried putting the FindOutNow polling aggregate numbers into my own spreadsheet (which tries to simulate tactical voting and uses a different swing calculation) to see how different the results would be. I ended up with a similar number of Tory seats, but different seats... Labour 464, Lib Dem 63, Conservative 53, SNP 47. The Tory seats in my model are Arundel and South Downs, Boston and Skegness, Bosworth, Brentwood and Ongar, Castle Point, Chichester, Christchurch, Clacton, Devizes, East Hampshire, East Surrey, Fareham, Havant, Horsham, Kenilworth and Southam, Louth and Horncastle, Ludlow, Maidstone and The Weald, Maldon, Meon Valley, Mid Worcestershire, New Forest East, New Forest West, Newton Abbot, North Dorset, NE Cambridgeshire, North Herefordshire, NW Hampshire, Orpington, Rayleigh and Wickford, Richmond Yorks (Sunak hanging on by 2000 votes), Rutland and Melton, Saffron Walden, Salisbury, Sevenoaks, Sleaford and North Hykeham, South Holland and the Deepings, South Staffordshire, SW Hertfordshire, SW Norfolk, Stratford on Avon, Tewkesbury, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Torridge and West Devon, Wealden, West Worcestershire, Windsor, Witham, Banff and Buchan, and Montgomeryshire. As well as Beaconsfield and East Devon but those are pretty much an artefact of me not putting in any particular formula to handle 2019 independent voters in seats like that. The flaw in the FindOutNow methodology is clearly the lack of modelling tactical voting (Esher and Walton will obviously not be, as they predict, a three-way marginal with the Tories narrowly pulling it off), but I expect they'll realise this and plan for it next time. You had me at "my own model". Top level nerdness. Respect.
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 9, 2023 18:56:11 GMT
Electoral Calculus write-upThe 45 holdouts An odd list: there are some seats there which I'd really expect the Lib Dems to take if the Tories really were having a meltdown on this sort of scale. If you look at the numbers many of them are shown as close three ways. For what it's worth I tried putting the FindOutNow polling aggregate numbers into my own spreadsheet (which tries to simulate tactical voting and uses a different swing calculation) to see how different the results would be. I ended up with a similar number of Tory seats, but different seats... Labour 464, Lib Dem 63, Conservative 53, SNP 47. The Tory seats in my model are Arundel and South Downs, Boston and Skegness, Bosworth, Brentwood and Ongar, Castle Point, Chichester, Christchurch, Clacton, Devizes, East Hampshire, East Surrey, Fareham, Havant, Horsham, Kenilworth and Southam, Louth and Horncastle, Ludlow, Maidstone and The Weald, Maldon, Meon Valley, Mid Worcestershire, New Forest East, New Forest West, Newton Abbot, North Dorset, NE Cambridgeshire, North Herefordshire, NW Hampshire, Orpington, Rayleigh and Wickford, Richmond Yorks (Sunak hanging on by 2000 votes), Rutland and Melton, Saffron Walden, Salisbury, Sevenoaks, Sleaford and North Hykeham, South Holland and the Deepings, South Staffordshire, SW Hertfordshire, SW Norfolk, Stratford on Avon, Tewkesbury, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Torridge and West Devon, Wealden, West Worcestershire, Windsor, Witham, Banff and Buchan, and Montgomeryshire. As well as Beaconsfield and East Devon but those are pretty much an artefact of me not putting in any particular formula to handle 2019 independent voters in seats like that. The flaw in the FindOutNow methodology is clearly the lack of modelling tactical voting (Esher and Walton will obviously not be, as they predict, a three-way marginal with the Tories narrowly pulling it off), but I expect they'll realise this and plan for it next time. BTW, what are the LD seats your model predicts?
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Post by YL on Feb 9, 2023 20:24:40 GMT
For what it's worth I tried putting the FindOutNow polling aggregate numbers into my own spreadsheet (which tries to simulate tactical voting and uses a different swing calculation) to see how different the results would be. I ended up with a similar number of Tory seats, but different seats... Labour 464, Lib Dem 63, Conservative 53, SNP 47. The Tory seats in my model are Arundel and South Downs, Boston and Skegness, Bosworth, Brentwood and Ongar, Castle Point, Chichester, Christchurch, Clacton, Devizes, East Hampshire, East Surrey, Fareham, Havant, Horsham, Kenilworth and Southam, Louth and Horncastle, Ludlow, Maidstone and The Weald, Maldon, Meon Valley, Mid Worcestershire, New Forest East, New Forest West, Newton Abbot, North Dorset, NE Cambridgeshire, North Herefordshire, NW Hampshire, Orpington, Rayleigh and Wickford, Richmond Yorks (Sunak hanging on by 2000 votes), Rutland and Melton, Saffron Walden, Salisbury, Sevenoaks, Sleaford and North Hykeham, South Holland and the Deepings, South Staffordshire, SW Hertfordshire, SW Norfolk, Stratford on Avon, Tewkesbury, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Torridge and West Devon, Wealden, West Worcestershire, Windsor, Witham, Banff and Buchan, and Montgomeryshire. As well as Beaconsfield and East Devon but those are pretty much an artefact of me not putting in any particular formula to handle 2019 independent voters in seats like that. The flaw in the FindOutNow methodology is clearly the lack of modelling tactical voting (Esher and Walton will obviously not be, as they predict, a three-way marginal with the Tories narrowly pulling it off), but I expect they'll realise this and plan for it next time. That looks a considerably more plausible answer to the question of what seats the Tories might be left with if they went down to 50 seats or so than FindOutNowUK's. (But shouldn't SW Herts be in the same category as Beaconsfield?)
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Post by nyx on Feb 9, 2023 20:33:31 GMT
For what it's worth I tried putting the FindOutNow polling aggregate numbers into my own spreadsheet (which tries to simulate tactical voting and uses a different swing calculation) to see how different the results would be. I ended up with a similar number of Tory seats, but different seats... Labour 464, Lib Dem 63, Conservative 53, SNP 47. The Tory seats in my model are Arundel and South Downs, Boston and Skegness, Bosworth, Brentwood and Ongar, Castle Point, Chichester, Christchurch, Clacton, Devizes, East Hampshire, East Surrey, Fareham, Havant, Horsham, Kenilworth and Southam, Louth and Horncastle, Ludlow, Maidstone and The Weald, Maldon, Meon Valley, Mid Worcestershire, New Forest East, New Forest West, Newton Abbot, North Dorset, NE Cambridgeshire, North Herefordshire, NW Hampshire, Orpington, Rayleigh and Wickford, Richmond Yorks (Sunak hanging on by 2000 votes), Rutland and Melton, Saffron Walden, Salisbury, Sevenoaks, Sleaford and North Hykeham, South Holland and the Deepings, South Staffordshire, SW Hertfordshire, SW Norfolk, Stratford on Avon, Tewkesbury, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Torridge and West Devon, Wealden, West Worcestershire, Windsor, Witham, Banff and Buchan, and Montgomeryshire. As well as Beaconsfield and East Devon but those are pretty much an artefact of me not putting in any particular formula to handle 2019 independent voters in seats like that. The flaw in the FindOutNow methodology is clearly the lack of modelling tactical voting (Esher and Walton will obviously not be, as they predict, a three-way marginal with the Tories narrowly pulling it off), but I expect they'll realise this and plan for it next time. BTW, what are the LD seats your model predicts? In order of victory margin: Twickenham, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park. St Albans, Westmorland and Lonsdale. Winchester, Cheltenham, Carshalton and Wallington, Esher and Walton, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, Lewes, Eastbourne, Guildford, St Ives, Hazel Grove, Wokingham, Hitchin and Harpenden, SW Surrey, Wells, Wimbledon, Brecon and Radnorshire, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Sutton and Cheam, SE Cambridgeshire, Taunton Deane, Chippenham, Orkney and Shetland, Wantage, Woking, Romsey and Southampton North, Edinburgh West, Mole Valley, Thornbury and Yate, West Dorset, Witney, Henley, Totnes, NE Fife, Eastleigh, Tunbridge Wells, North Devon, Newbury, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Yeovil, North Cornwall, North Norfolk, East Dunbartonshire, Finchley and Golders Green, Chesham and Amersham, Mid Dorset and North Poole, Somerton and Frome, Surrey Heath, North Wiltshire, Buckingham, Mid Sussex, Chelmsford, Maidenhead, Cotswolds, Epsom and Ewell, NE Hampshire. Additionally, North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton are both predicted Labour thanks to not taking by-elections into account so would obviously be LD if by-elections were taken into consideration... though on the other hand in reality Labour would win Finchley and Golders Green and Wimbledon (in both of which my model predicts Labour comes second). All in all pretty much what you'd expect: Conservative support dropping a lot and naturally going to the second placed candidate.
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Post by nyx on Feb 9, 2023 20:34:33 GMT
That looks a considerably more plausible answer to the question of what seats the Tories might be left with if they went down to 50 seats or so than FindOutNowUK's. (But shouldn't SW Herts be in the same category as Beaconsfield?) Indeed it should. I forgot David Gauke existed.
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Post by batman on Feb 9, 2023 21:11:19 GMT
For what it's worth I tried putting the FindOutNow polling aggregate numbers into my own spreadsheet (which tries to simulate tactical voting and uses a different swing calculation) to see how different the results would be. I ended up with a similar number of Tory seats, but different seats... Labour 464, Lib Dem 63, Conservative 53, SNP 47. The Tory seats in my model are Arundel and South Downs, Boston and Skegness, Bosworth, Brentwood and Ongar, Castle Point, Chichester, Christchurch, Clacton, Devizes, East Hampshire, East Surrey, Fareham, Havant, Horsham, Kenilworth and Southam, Louth and Horncastle, Ludlow, Maidstone and The Weald, Maldon, Meon Valley, Mid Worcestershire, New Forest East, New Forest West, Newton Abbot, North Dorset, NE Cambridgeshire, North Herefordshire, NW Hampshire, Orpington, Rayleigh and Wickford, Richmond Yorks (Sunak hanging on by 2000 votes), Rutland and Melton, Saffron Walden, Salisbury, Sevenoaks, Sleaford and North Hykeham, South Holland and the Deepings, South Staffordshire, SW Hertfordshire, SW Norfolk, Stratford on Avon, Tewkesbury, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Torridge and West Devon, Wealden, West Worcestershire, Windsor, Witham, Banff and Buchan, and Montgomeryshire. As well as Beaconsfield and East Devon but those are pretty much an artefact of me not putting in any particular formula to handle 2019 independent voters in seats like that. The flaw in the FindOutNow methodology is clearly the lack of modelling tactical voting (Esher and Walton will obviously not be, as they predict, a three-way marginal with the Tories narrowly pulling it off), but I expect they'll realise this and plan for it next time. That looks a considerably more plausible answer to the question of what seats the Tories might be left with if they went down to 50 seats or so than FindOutNowUK's. (But shouldn't SW Herts be in the same category as Beaconsfield?) SW Herts has quite a few areas of local strength for the LDs, plus South Oxhey which is normally a Labour stronghold. Beaconsfield constituency doesn't really have any areas of weakness for the Conservatives
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 9, 2023 21:32:31 GMT
BTW, what are the LD seats your model predicts? In order of victory margin: Twickenham, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park. St Albans, Westmorland and Lonsdale. Winchester, Cheltenham, Carshalton and Wallington, Esher and Walton, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, Lewes, Eastbourne, Guildford, St Ives, Hazel Grove, Wokingham, Hitchin and Harpenden, SW Surrey, Wells, Wimbledon, Brecon and Radnorshire, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Sutton and Cheam, SE Cambridgeshire, Taunton Deane, Chippenham, Orkney and Shetland, Wantage, Woking, Romsey and Southampton North, Edinburgh West, Mole Valley, Thornbury and Yate, West Dorset, Witney, Henley, Totnes, NE Fife, Eastleigh, Tunbridge Wells, North Devon, Newbury, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Yeovil, North Cornwall, North Norfolk, East Dunbartonshire, Finchley and Golders Green, Chesham and Amersham, Mid Dorset and North Poole, Somerton and Frome, Surrey Heath, North Wiltshire, Buckingham, Mid Sussex, Chelmsford, Maidenhead, Cotswolds, Epsom and Ewell, NE Hampshire. Additionally, North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton are both predicted Labour thanks to not taking by-elections into account so would obviously be LD if by-elections were taken into consideration... though on the other hand in reality Labour would win Finchley and Golders Green and Wimbledon (in both of which my model predicts Labour comes second). All in all pretty much what you'd expect: Conservative support dropping a lot and naturally going to the second placed candidate. Lots of familiar names there. A few I think are a stretch too far. I'd guess most of the top third will fall, some from the middle and one or two from the bottom.
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Post by nyx on Feb 9, 2023 21:57:04 GMT
Lots of familiar names there. A few I think are a stretch too far. I'd guess most of the top third will fall, some from the middle and one or two from the bottom. I'd agree with you broadly, as I don't think the Tories will fall under a hundred seats in the end. But in the unlikely event that they do fall as low as 50 seats, I think most of the seats on that list would have to fall- as otherwise it would have to be a case of the likes of Richmond falling to Labour.
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Post by batman on Feb 9, 2023 22:01:08 GMT
In order of victory margin: Twickenham, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park. St Albans, Westmorland and Lonsdale. Winchester, Cheltenham, Carshalton and Wallington, Esher and Walton, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, Lewes, Eastbourne, Guildford, St Ives, Hazel Grove, Wokingham, Hitchin and Harpenden, SW Surrey, Wells, Wimbledon, Brecon and Radnorshire, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Sutton and Cheam, SE Cambridgeshire, Taunton Deane, Chippenham, Orkney and Shetland, Wantage, Woking, Romsey and Southampton North, Edinburgh West, Mole Valley, Thornbury and Yate, West Dorset, Witney, Henley, Totnes, NE Fife, Eastleigh, Tunbridge Wells, North Devon, Newbury, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Yeovil, North Cornwall, North Norfolk, East Dunbartonshire, Finchley and Golders Green, Chesham and Amersham, Mid Dorset and North Poole, Somerton and Frome, Surrey Heath, North Wiltshire, Buckingham, Mid Sussex, Chelmsford, Maidenhead, Cotswolds, Epsom and Ewell, NE Hampshire. Additionally, North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton are both predicted Labour thanks to not taking by-elections into account so would obviously be LD if by-elections were taken into consideration... though on the other hand in reality Labour would win Finchley and Golders Green and Wimbledon (in both of which my model predicts Labour comes second). All in all pretty much what you'd expect: Conservative support dropping a lot and naturally going to the second placed candidate. Lots of familiar names there. A few I think are a stretch too far. I'd guess most of the top third will fall, some from the middle and one or two from the bottom. I can't see the Conservatives losing Surrey Heath in a general election ever
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 9, 2023 22:49:52 GMT
In order of victory margin: Twickenham, Bath, Oxford West and Abingdon, Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park. St Albans, Westmorland and Lonsdale. Winchester, Cheltenham, Carshalton and Wallington, Esher and Walton, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, Lewes, Eastbourne, Guildford, St Ives, Hazel Grove, Wokingham, Hitchin and Harpenden, SW Surrey, Wells, Wimbledon, Brecon and Radnorshire, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Sutton and Cheam, SE Cambridgeshire, Taunton Deane, Chippenham, Orkney and Shetland, Wantage, Woking, Romsey and Southampton North, Edinburgh West, Mole Valley, Thornbury and Yate, West Dorset, Witney, Henley, Totnes, NE Fife, Eastleigh, Tunbridge Wells, North Devon, Newbury, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Yeovil, North Cornwall, North Norfolk, East Dunbartonshire, Finchley and Golders Green, Chesham and Amersham, Mid Dorset and North Poole, Somerton and Frome, Surrey Heath, North Wiltshire, Buckingham, Mid Sussex, Chelmsford, Maidenhead, Cotswolds, Epsom and Ewell, NE Hampshire. Additionally, North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton are both predicted Labour thanks to not taking by-elections into account so would obviously be LD if by-elections were taken into consideration... though on the other hand in reality Labour would win Finchley and Golders Green and Wimbledon (in both of which my model predicts Labour comes second). All in all pretty much what you'd expect: Conservative support dropping a lot and naturally going to the second placed candidate. Lots of familiar names there. A few I think are a stretch too far. I'd guess most of the top third will fall, some from the middle and one or two from the bottom. It's a pretty plausible list, but there are a few factors which I think will derail the LDs in some cases. Continuing unwind from popular incumbents having departed (e.g. East Dunbartonshire, Wells, Somerton & Frome) or loss of what might be termed tradition (Brecon & Radnor). High profile defending Conservatives (e.g. Wokingham, Maidenhead). I would - of course - be delighted to be wrong!
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 9, 2023 23:18:58 GMT
Well, the prediction in this that Labour will win 500 seats but the SNP still win 50 is clearly for the birds - it points to an underlying weakness in these sorts of models. In reality, a significant number of Scots would be inclined to support a party that was obviously set to sweep England and Wales - just as Labour's slump in Scotland last time was significantly driven by the general perception they couldn't win the GE as a whole. The common SNP fantasy that they can keep themselves hermetically sealed from what is happening elsewhere, is very likely exactly that. It's not a feature of the model. It's a feature of polling. The sample included about 1000 Scottish voters; what you need for a decent full poll which gave the SNP 48% with Labour at 49% GB wide. Even accounting for that sample not being fully weighted in itself, it's not out of line with what we know about polling. Labour at 45-55% in polling in GB with the SNP at or above 40-45% in Scotland, which we have seen since September is not at odds with or incompatible with what we know about switchers. They are predominately directly from CON to LAB (2017-2019 switchers and as deep down as voters who've not voted Labour since Blair or in some demographics, ever) This is true both in Scotland and rGB. There are SNP to Labour switchers, but even in Labour's stronger polls in Scotland, SNP support is 'backfilled' by some leakage from CON-LAB-LD. It might feel intuitive that a BIG Labour win would be reflected in Scotland too, but the dynamics are different. 1997 was won on the backs of direct CON to LAB switching. That was true in Scotland. SNP support, much weaker than today and the Lib Dem support, much stronger than today wasn't cannibalised by the Labour advance. If a Labour government is coming, we just don't know the strength, and it's a majority on on the back of a strong rGB showing, if you're an SNP convert, for broadly constitutional reasons, it's not going to make you vote Labour again if it's not needed or sends a signal that jeopardises your constitutional viewpoint. It would be equally as disingenuous to argue say that because Labour aren't hitting 40% in Scotland then the rGB polling is a mirage. There's a real decoupling. However, the Conservative vote will probably collapse harder in Scotland than elsewhere. Not only do you have the general nationwide Con --> Lab swing, but a) a lot of Scotland's Tories are quite new to voting Tory and therefore likely to be less loyal and b) Conservative voters by and large seem quite happy to tactically vote Labour to support the Unionist cause. Secondly, a lot of the Lab --> SNP swing was based on voters simply falling out with Labour, first over the independence referendum and then over Labour's general, well, "2019 GE-ness". A lot of those voters and especially what you might call "low interest" and/or "low information" voters will be happier to come back to Labour now that they look like a party pf government again. Now, I am not arguing that the SNP are weak or that Labour are going to overhaul them. I would think most if not all seats where the SNP were over 50% last time are safe for now. But I will be astonished if the SNP come out of the next election with anything like 50 seats
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Post by michaelarden on Feb 9, 2023 23:20:40 GMT
Lots of familiar names there. A few I think are a stretch too far. I'd guess most of the top third will fall, some from the middle and one or two from the bottom. It's a pretty plausible list, but there are a few factors which I think will derail the LDs in some cases. Continuing unwind from popular incumbents having departed (e.g. East Dunbartonshire, Wells, Somerton & Frome) or loss of what might be termed tradition (Brecon & Radnor). High profile defending Conservatives (e.g. Wokingham, Maidenhead). I would - of course - be delighted to be wrong! It really isn't. On 9% the Lib Dems will struggle to gain momentum in many seats and even if the Tory vote collapses Labour will leapfrog them. Finchley and Golders Green is a nailed on Labour gain on these polling figures for example. They won't be gaining any seats in Scotland on an even lower share. And all of that is before boundary changes which abolish or significantly change a number of these seats including East Dunbartonshire. Similarly ludicrous is the idea that the Conservatives will hold Banff & Buchan when reduced to 50 seats.
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 9, 2023 23:24:10 GMT
It's a pretty plausible list, but there are a few factors which I think will derail the LDs in some cases. Continuing unwind from popular incumbents having departed (e.g. East Dunbartonshire, Wells, Somerton & Frome) or loss of what might be termed tradition (Brecon & Radnor). High profile defending Conservatives (e.g. Wokingham, Maidenhead). I would - of course - be delighted to be wrong! It really isn't. On 9% the Lib Dems will struggle to gain momentum in many seats and even if the Tory vote collapses Labour will leapfrog them. Finchley and Golders Green is a nailed on Labour gain on these polling figures for example. They won't be gaining any seats in Scotland on an even lower share. And all of that is before boundary changes which abolish or significantly change a number of these seats including East Dunbartonshire. Similarly ludicrous is the idea that the Conservatives will hold Banff & Buchan when reduced to 50 seats. However the LDs tend to get to 9% by getting to 20% in several seats, 30-40 in a few, and lost deposit territory in a lot. That kind of vote distribution can win you more seats than generally expected. Their main problem of course is the number of votes lost in seats where they get 20-30% but still don't win
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Post by michaelarden on Feb 9, 2023 23:29:09 GMT
It really isn't. On 9% the Lib Dems will struggle to gain momentum in many seats and even if the Tory vote collapses Labour will leapfrog them. Finchley and Golders Green is a nailed on Labour gain on these polling figures for example. They won't be gaining any seats in Scotland on an even lower share. And all of that is before boundary changes which abolish or significantly change a number of these seats including East Dunbartonshire. Similarly ludicrous is the idea that the Conservatives will hold Banff & Buchan when reduced to 50 seats. However the LDs tend to get to 9% by getting to 20% in several seats, 30-40 in a few, and lost deposit territory in a lot. That kind of vote distribution can win you more seats than generally expected. Their main problem of course is the number of votes lost in seats where they get 20-30% but still don't win I agree. On 9% they won't be winning more than 60 seats though - they might be able to get to 25.
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 9, 2023 23:36:08 GMT
However the LDs tend to get to 9% by getting to 20% in several seats, 30-40 in a few, and lost deposit territory in a lot. That kind of vote distribution can win you more seats than generally expected. Their main problem of course is the number of votes lost in seats where they get 20-30% but still don't win I agree. On 9% they won't be winning more than 60 seats though - they might be able to get to 25. True, however I suspect the dynamics of this (ie that an unusual number of votes are lost to Labour because "they're the non-Tory party I'm familiar with", which applies to a lot of voters who don't really do politics but do vote at GEs) would lead to the LDs winning 35% instead of 30% and actually winning a few seats on that kind of vote share. Even if 60 is pushing it I would say their range is quite wide and could see them winning maybe 45 or so if everything lines up for them
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Post by andrewp on Mar 4, 2023 15:07:16 GMT
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Post by graham on Mar 4, 2023 21:01:38 GMT
Lots of familiar names there. A few I think are a stretch too far. I'd guess most of the top third will fall, some from the middle and one or two from the bottom. It's a pretty plausible list, but there are a few factors which I think will derail the LDs in some cases. Continuing unwind from popular incumbents having departed (e.g. East Dunbartonshire, Wells, Somerton & Frome) or loss of what might be termed tradition (Brecon & Radnor). High profile defending Conservatives (e.g. Wokingham, Maidenhead). I would - of course - be delighted to be wrong! Finchley & Golders Green will be a Tory/Labour contest next time with 2019 being an aberration due to local factors which will not be repeated.
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Post by batman on Mar 4, 2023 21:26:10 GMT
especially now that the 2019 LD candidate will be advocating a vote for Labour.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 8, 2023 19:03:45 GMT
There is a Find out now poll of 11000 people being trailed on Channel 4 news that has headline numbers of Lab 45, Con 24 LD 12, Green7, RefUK 4 and a projection of seats of Lab 461 Con 90 SNP 38 LD 37.
It would be amazing if the SNP could hold 38 if Labour did that well.
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 8, 2023 19:10:59 GMT
There is a Find out now poll of 11000 people being trailed on Channel 4 news that has headline numbers of Lab 45, Con 24 LD 12, Green7, RefUK 4 and a projection of seats of Lab 461 Con 90 SNP 38 LD 37. It would be amazing if the SNP could hold 38 if Labour did that well. It says a lot about Channel 4 News that they would run a story on a single opinion poll held about a year before a general election.
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