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Post by matureleft on Feb 9, 2023 9:38:13 GMT
Bumped into a Tory MP I know yesterday. I was surprised at his gloomy prognosis - indeed I said that I'd place a bet on their losing their majority but not on much beyond that. He faced boundary changes that had turned his way from, as he thought, a certain loss from a current notional majority of 5000 or so to potential survival with a current cushion of 13-14,000. His neighbour got the rough end of the change in Boundary Commission sentiment with his majority being eliminated altogether.
He's mainstream and level-headed. But the Westminster bubble has a nasty effect of locking you in with a load of people rapidly losing objectivity (if they ever had that). The fact is that overturning the Tory majority and producing a Labour majority of 20 (his guess) involves, allowing for boundary change effects, around 150 Labour gains. Everything's possible (and polls like these must scare bubble inhabitants) but I'd need a lot stronger evidence to get me putting my money down.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 9, 2023 9:42:51 GMT
Bumped into a Tory MP I know yesterday. I was surprised at his gloomy prognosis - indeed I said that I'd place a bet on their losing their majority but not on much beyond that. He faced boundary changes that had turned his way from, as he thought, a certain loss from a current notional majority of 5000 or so to potential survival with a current cushion of 13-14,000. His neighbour got the rough end of the change in Boundary Commission sentiment with his majority being eliminated altogether. He's mainstream and level-headed. But the Westminster bubble has a nasty effect of locking you in with a load of people rapidly losing objectivity (if they ever had that). The fact is that overturning the Tory majority and producing a Labour majority of 20 (his guess) involves, allowing for boundary change effects, around 150 Labour gains. Everything's possible (and polls like these must scare bubble inhabitants) but I'd need a lot stronger evidence to get me putting my money down. I dare say he could be identified by many here from that description
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Post by matureleft on Feb 9, 2023 10:00:32 GMT
Bumped into a Tory MP I know yesterday. I was surprised at his gloomy prognosis - indeed I said that I'd place a bet on their losing their majority but not on much beyond that. He faced boundary changes that had turned his way from, as he thought, a certain loss from a current notional majority of 5000 or so to potential survival with a current cushion of 13-14,000. His neighbour got the rough end of the change in Boundary Commission sentiment with his majority being eliminated altogether. He's mainstream and level-headed. But the Westminster bubble has a nasty effect of locking you in with a load of people rapidly losing objectivity (if they ever had that). The fact is that overturning the Tory majority and producing a Labour majority of 20 (his guess) involves, allowing for boundary change effects, around 150 Labour gains. Everything's possible (and polls like these must scare bubble inhabitants) but I'd need a lot stronger evidence to get me putting my money down. I dare say he could be identified by many here from that description I kept the numbers pretty vague to make that harder!
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Post by grahammurray on Feb 9, 2023 10:11:09 GMT
I dare say he could be identified by many here from that description I kept the numbers pretty vague to make that harder! You said he was 'level headed' which cuts the possibilities down massively.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 9, 2023 10:17:51 GMT
I dare say he could be identified by many here from that description I kept the numbers pretty vague to make that harder! Indeed but you just set us a more interesting challenge in doing that!
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 9, 2023 10:34:06 GMT
I kept the numbers pretty vague to make that harder! Indeed but you just set us a more interesting challenge in doing that! I think I've got it - and if I'm right his pessimism becomes more understandable. The new boundaries move a lot of reasonably affluent and Conservative territory into his seat, but it's pretty much all new build housing and there's a lot of people with mortgages there - so any cost of living pressures around interest rates will be keenly felt. And that might well mean an above average swing to Labour...
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 9, 2023 10:58:04 GMT
Indeed but you just set us a more interesting challenge in doing that! I think I've got it - and if I'm right his pessimism becomes more understandable. The new boundaries move a lot of reasonably affluent and Conservative territory into his seat, but it's pretty much all new build housing and there's a lot of people with mortgages there - so any cost of living pressures around interest rates will be keenly felt. And that might well mean an above average swing to Labour... Yes - it looks a bit more like the boundaries did in 1997 and it fell to Labour then of course
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 9, 2023 11:08:11 GMT
Everything's possible (and polls like these must scare bubble inhabitants) but I'd need a lot stronger evidence to get me putting my money down Well for me, maybe the "stronger evidence" is that the Tories seem to have increasingly given up any interest in even trying to govern properly? Even outside the bubble, this is the sort of thing that people start to notice after a while.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 9, 2023 11:23:15 GMT
Everything's possible (and polls like these must scare bubble inhabitants) but I'd need a lot stronger evidence to get me putting my money down Well for me, maybe the "stronger evidence" is that the Tories seem to have increasingly given up any interest in even trying to govern properly? Even outside the bubble, this is the sort of thing that people start to notice after a while. If the polling carries on like this it could fulfil two of my minimum hopes for the GE-substantially fewer Con seats, substantially more Lab. I'd like to also see far fewer SNP seats but that I'm not optimistic on.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 9, 2023 11:27:29 GMT
Well, the prediction in this that Labour will win 500 seats but the SNP still win 50 is clearly for the birds - it points to an underlying weakness in these sorts of models. In reality, a significant number of Scots would be inclined to support a party that was obviously set to sweep England and Wales - just as Labour's slump in Scotland last time was significantly driven by the general perception they couldn't win the GE as a whole. The common SNP fantasy that they can keep themselves hermetically sealed from what is happening elsewhere, is very likely exactly that.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 9, 2023 11:29:28 GMT
Well, the prediction in this that Labour will win 500 seats but the SNP still win 50 is clearly for the birds - it points to an underlying weakness in these sorts of models. In reality, a significant number of Scots would be inclined to support a party that was obviously set to sweep England and Wales - just as Labour's slump in Scotland last time was significantly driven by the general perception they couldn't win the GE as a whole. The common SNP fantasy that they can keep themselves hermetically sealed from what is happening elsewhere, is very likely exactly that. Yes i seriously doubt a 1931 in reverse
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 9, 2023 11:32:52 GMT
Well yes, so do I - but my real point is that in Scotland just as everywhere else, a significant number of voters like to back a winner.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 9, 2023 11:34:37 GMT
Well yes, so do I - but my real point is that in Scotland just as everywhere else, a significant number of voters like to back a winner. glory hunters lol . I think my statement above implies I might be wanting more Lib Dems too...
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YL
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Post by YL on Feb 9, 2023 11:51:13 GMT
Electoral Calculus write-upThe 45 holdouts Beaconsfield Brentwood & Ongar Castle Point Chesham & Amersham Chippenham Christchurch North Cornwall The Cotswolds East Devon North Devon Mid Dorset & North Poole North Dorset West Dorset Esher & Walton East Hampshire North East Hampshire Harrogate & Knaresborough Henley South West Hertfordshire Louth & Horncastle Maidenhead Maldon Meon Valley Mole Valley New Forest East New Forest West Newbury North Norfolk Orpington Rayleigh & Wickford Romsey & Southampton North Saffron Walden Sevenoaks South Holland & the Deepings South Staffordshire Stratford upon Avon East Surrey Surrey Heath South West Surrey Sutton & Cheam Taunton Deane Thornbury & Yate Torbay North Wiltshire Yeovil An odd list: there are some seats there which I'd really expect the Lib Dems to take if the Tories really were having a meltdown on this sort of scale. If you look at the numbers many of them are shown as close three ways.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 9, 2023 12:01:13 GMT
Electoral Calculus write-upAn odd list: there are some seats there which I'd really expect the Lib Dems to take if the Tories really were having a meltdown on this sort of scale. If you look at the numbers many of them are shown as close three ways. No fewer than 15 of the 45 are seats the Lib Dems have held previously (or hold now in the case of C&A) with quite a few others such as Orpington* and SW Surrey which have been serious targets relatively recently *Not counted as one of their previously held seats despite the distant Liberal history
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Post by andrewp on Feb 9, 2023 12:01:58 GMT
Electoral Calculus write-upThe 45 holdouts Beaconsfield Brentwood & Ongar Castle Point Chesham & Amersham Chippenham Christchurch North Cornwall The Cotswolds East Devon North Devon Mid Dorset & North Poole North Dorset West Dorset Esher & Walton East Hampshire North East Hampshire Harrogate & Knaresborough Henley South West Hertfordshire Louth & Horncastle Maidenhead Maldon Meon Valley Mole Valley New Forest East New Forest West Newbury North Norfolk Orpington Rayleigh & Wickford Romsey & Southampton North Saffron Walden Sevenoaks South Holland & the Deepings South Staffordshire Stratford upon Avon East Surrey Surrey Heath South West Surrey Sutton & Cheam Taunton Deane Thornbury & Yate Torbay North Wiltshire Yeovil An odd list: there are some seats there which I'd really expect the Lib Dems to take if the Tories really were having a meltdown on this sort of scale. If you look at the numbers many of them are shown as close three ways. Absolute Tosh of a list that reflects that the model doesn’t pick up that a lot of seats don’t swing directly from Conservative to Labour. So flawed. If the Tories went below 50 seats, there is no almost no circumstance where Taunton Deane or South West Surrey would be held, when Boston and Skegness and Richmond wouldn’t be.
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YL
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Post by YL on Feb 9, 2023 12:38:24 GMT
Electoral Calculus write-upAn odd list: there are some seats there which I'd really expect the Lib Dems to take if the Tories really were having a meltdown on this sort of scale. If you look at the numbers many of them are shown as close three ways. No fewer than 15 of the 45 are seats the Lib Dems have held previously (or hold now in the case of C&A) with quite a few others such as Orpington* and SW Surrey which have been serious targets relatively recently *Not counted as one of their previously held seats despite the distant Liberal history I think this is because in these seats the model sees both a respectable Lib Dem vote based on their recent history and a respectable Labour vote based on a national surge, allowing the Tories to hold on on a low vote share, while seats without the Lib Dem history fall on a higher Tory vote because they don't have the split. I don't believe that this is what would actually happen in that sort of seat, though I will believe the Tories getting 23% of the vote in a General Election when I see it.
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Post by batman on Feb 9, 2023 15:22:48 GMT
It's best just to ignore seat predictions in polls like these, they are usually nonsensical and not based on any understanding of constituencies whatsoever. The idea that the Tories would be down to 45 seats & yet somehow keep an outright pro-Remain marginal like Esher & Walton, to give just one example, is utterly ludicrous.
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Post by afleitch on Feb 9, 2023 15:59:00 GMT
Well, the prediction in this that Labour will win 500 seats but the SNP still win 50 is clearly for the birds - it points to an underlying weakness in these sorts of models. In reality, a significant number of Scots would be inclined to support a party that was obviously set to sweep England and Wales - just as Labour's slump in Scotland last time was significantly driven by the general perception they couldn't win the GE as a whole. The common SNP fantasy that they can keep themselves hermetically sealed from what is happening elsewhere, is very likely exactly that. It's not a feature of the model. It's a feature of polling. The sample included about 1000 Scottish voters; what you need for a decent full poll which gave the SNP 48% with Labour at 49% GB wide. Even accounting for that sample not being fully weighted in itself, it's not out of line with what we know about polling. Labour at 45-55% in polling in GB with the SNP at or above 40-45% in Scotland, which we have seen since September is not at odds with or incompatible with what we know about switchers. They are predominately directly from CON to LAB (2017-2019 switchers and as deep down as voters who've not voted Labour since Blair or in some demographics, ever) This is true both in Scotland and rGB. There are SNP to Labour switchers, but even in Labour's stronger polls in Scotland, SNP support is 'backfilled' by some leakage from CON-LAB-LD. It might feel intuitive that a BIG Labour win would be reflected in Scotland too, but the dynamics are different. 1997 was won on the backs of direct CON to LAB switching. That was true in Scotland. SNP support, much weaker than today and the Lib Dem support, much stronger than today wasn't cannibalised by the Labour advance. If a Labour government is coming, we just don't know the strength, and it's a majority on on the back of a strong rGB showing, if you're an SNP convert, for broadly constitutional reasons, it's not going to make you vote Labour again if it's not needed or sends a signal that jeopardises your constitutional viewpoint. It would be equally as disingenuous to argue say that because Labour aren't hitting 40% in Scotland then the rGB polling is a mirage. There's a real decoupling.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Feb 9, 2023 17:45:10 GMT
Electoral Calculus write-upThe 45 holdouts An odd list: there are some seats there which I'd really expect the Lib Dems to take if the Tories really were having a meltdown on this sort of scale. If you look at the numbers many of them are shown as close three ways. For what it's worth I tried putting the FindOutNow polling aggregate numbers into my own spreadsheet (which tries to simulate tactical voting and uses a different swing calculation) to see how different the results would be. I ended up with a similar number of Tory seats, but different seats... Labour 464, Lib Dem 63, Conservative 53, SNP 47. The Tory seats in my model are Arundel and South Downs, Boston and Skegness, Bosworth, Brentwood and Ongar, Castle Point, Chichester, Christchurch, Clacton, Devizes, East Hampshire, East Surrey, Fareham, Havant, Horsham, Kenilworth and Southam, Louth and Horncastle, Ludlow, Maidstone and The Weald, Maldon, Meon Valley, Mid Worcestershire, New Forest East, New Forest West, Newton Abbot, North Dorset, NE Cambridgeshire, North Herefordshire, NW Hampshire, Orpington, Rayleigh and Wickford, Richmond Yorks (Sunak hanging on by 2000 votes), Rutland and Melton, Saffron Walden, Salisbury, Sevenoaks, Sleaford and North Hykeham, South Holland and the Deepings, South Staffordshire, SW Hertfordshire, SW Norfolk, Stratford on Avon, Tewkesbury, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Torridge and West Devon, Wealden, West Worcestershire, Windsor, Witham, Banff and Buchan, and Montgomeryshire. As well as Beaconsfield and East Devon but those are pretty much an artefact of me not putting in any particular formula to handle 2019 independent voters in seats like that. The flaw in the FindOutNow methodology is clearly the lack of modelling tactical voting (Esher and Walton will obviously not be, as they predict, a three-way marginal with the Tories narrowly pulling it off), but I expect they'll realise this and plan for it next time.
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