clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 20, 2022 18:23:33 GMT
Obviously don't take hypothetical polls as gospel, but FindOutNow polling suggests none of the Conservative leadership candidates would make a big difference to the Tories' chances at the next election: linkWestminster VI by possible Conservative leader (18-19 July):Sunak: Lab 37, Con 25, LDm 15, Grn 10, RUK 4 (Oth ~9) Truss: Lab 37, Con 25, LDm 16, Grn 9, RUK 3 (Oth ~10) Morduant: Lab 36, Con 27, LDm 15, Grn 9, RUK 3 (Oth ~10)Based on previous polling differences between FindOutNow and the average of other pollsters, it would suggest a typical poll conducted by the company right now would show roughly: Lab 40, Con 29, LDm 15, Grn 7, RUK 3, Oth 6 (these could be wrong by quite a decent margin depending on any relative changes since the previous FindOutNow poll in February). Obviously, Morduant has been eliminated since this poll was conducted. I'd imagine the undecided voters are significantly higher than a typical poll, due to uncertainty the average voter may have about a new Conservative leader's policies. That would explain why both Labour and the Conservatives are down from the estimated standard figures across all three candidates; without seeing the crosstabs however, it's only speculation on my behalf.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 20, 2022 19:26:18 GMT
Plug those numbers into electoral calculus and Truss loses 4 more seats to the Lib Dems than Sunak.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 22, 2022 4:02:36 GMT
Obviously don't take hypothetical polls as gospel, but FindOutNow polling suggests none of the Conservative leadership candidates would make a big difference to the Tories' chances at the next election: linkWestminster VI by possible Conservative leader (18-19 July):Sunak: Lab 37, Con 25, LDm 15, Grn 10, RUK 4 (Oth ~9) Truss: Lab 37, Con 25, LDm 16, Grn 9, RUK 3 (Oth ~10) Morduant: Lab 36, Con 27, LDm 15, Grn 9, RUK 3 (Oth ~10)Based on previous polling differences between FindOutNow and the average of other pollsters, it would suggest a typical poll conducted by the company right now would show roughly: Lab 40, Con 29, LDm 15, Grn 7, RUK 3, Oth 6 (these could be wrong by quite a decent margin depending on any relative changes since the previous FindOutNow poll in February). Obviously, Morduant has been eliminated since this poll was conducted. I'd imagine the undecided voters are significantly higher than a typical poll, due to uncertainty the average voter may have about a new Conservative leader's policies. That would explain why both Labour and the Conservatives are down from the estimated standard figures across all three candidates; without seeing the crosstabs however, it's only speculation on my behalf. The crosstabs are out and it seems the number of undecideds within the normal range FindOutNow has. What appears to be the case, however, is the Scottish and Welsh subsamples are overly SNP/Plaid - the SNP was between 58% and 59% in Scotland depending on candidate, while Plaid was between 23% and 25% in Wales. The figures in the data tables don't match what was reported in that article - the changes between what was reported and what was in the tables are shown: Sunak: Lab 39 (+2), Con 24 (-1), LDm 15, Grn 10, SNP 6, RUK 5 (+1), PC 1 Truss: Lab 39 (+2), Con 25, LDm 16, Grn 10 (+1), SNP 6, RUK 3, PC 1 Mordaunt: Lab 38 (+2), Con 28 (+1), LDm 14 (-1), Grn 10 (+1), SNP 6, RUK 4 (+1), PC 1 I don't know if there's been a change in weighting since the report and the release of the tables, which is probably the most likely explanation. Weirdly, there's no option for 'Other' in the poll.
Based on adjusting the SNP and Plaid figures to be 46% and 15% in their respective nations (more inline with recent full-scale polls) and distributing that proportionally based on the other party's figures in each nation: Sunak: Lab 40, Con 25, LDm 15, Grn 10, RUK 5, SNP 4, PC 1 Truss: Lab 39, Con 26, LDm 16, Grn 10, SNP 4, RUK 3, PC 1 Mordaunt: Lab 38, Con 29, LDm 15, Grn 10, SNP 4, RUK 4, PC 1 Seat wise (using the Electoral Calculus calculator, without any Scotland or Wales adjustments): Sunak: Lab 381, Con 161, SNP 51, LDm 33, PC 5, Grn 1, RUK 0 Truss: Lab 354, Con 186, SNP 51, LDm 34, PC 5, Grn 1, RUK 0 Mordaunt: Lab 323, Con 224, SNP 51, LDm 27, Grn 2(*), RUK 0 *I think the independent vote in Devon East (40.4%) is being discarded and transferred to the party which gains the most - the Greens in this case. I'd imagine the seat would either go Conservative or Lib Dem, without the independent (probably Lib Dem on these numbers).
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 28, 2022 19:36:20 GMT
You spend what seems an eternity waiting for an MRP to come along and then look at this, two in a few days!
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 29, 2022 0:56:50 GMT
You spend what seems an eternity waiting for an MRP to come along and then look at this, two in a few days! More nonsense from Baxter. I'm not exactly a fan of MRP (for reasons I have stated ad nauseam) but even for them, Baxter's projections are bizarre.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Sept 29, 2022 6:29:38 GMT
You spend what seems an eternity waiting for an MRP to come along and then look at this, two in a few days! More nonsense from Baxter. I'm not exactly a fan of MRP (for reasons I have stated ad nauseam) but even for them, Baxter's projections are bizarre. Without rehashing the same points that get raised every time an MRP comes out, I would say that it's possible this is the current situation. However this cannot be taken as what would actually happen in a general election campaign, given: voters' lack of tactical voting considerations at this stage; a relatively large amount of undecided voters (with nearly half being 2019 Conservative voters, along with nearly half of refusers being 2019 Conservative voters); people not necessarily weighing up party policies; and people not knowing who will be a candidate in their constituency. MRP data is also based upon the previous general election's results, which arguably isn't beneficial to use as the 2019 election was a rather unique election in terms of its context.
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afleitch
SNP
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Post by afleitch on Sept 29, 2022 8:04:47 GMT
Only 1 Labour gain from the SNP here as SNP are at 51% on the sample.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Sept 29, 2022 9:35:41 GMT
Only 1 Labour gain from the SNP here as SNP are at 51% on the sample. But has the Tories holding three seats, and virtually no progress made versus the Lib Dems (despite the much-commented-on Lib Dem problem in MRPs). The Scottish sample certainly looks odd.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2022 10:22:53 GMT
We could certainly do with some new Scottish polling soon.
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afleitch
SNP
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Post by afleitch on Sept 29, 2022 13:52:41 GMT
A note on vote efficiency. Using UNS on Baxter's site and keying in the average of the last four polls, the Tories are less efficient based on 2019 (188 seats) than the the previous three elections The Lib Dems are more efficient (25 seats) over the same period.
Labour are less efficient than in 2010 (due to the SNP) but only slightly less efficient than 2017
Labour seat leads over Conservatives by base year v Labour plus SNP seat leads
2019 174/225 2017 168/205 2015 137/193 2010 184/189 2005 226/231
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 8, 2023 21:24:56 GMT
Don't have the figures other than Labour & Conservative yet, but there's an MRP poll in the Torygraph from Find Out Now with a 28,000 sample size. it shows Lab 48 C 23
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msc
Non-Aligned
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Post by msc on Feb 8, 2023 21:45:22 GMT
Don't have the figures other than Labour & Conservative yet, but there's an MRP poll in the Torygraph from Find Out Now with a 28,000 sample size. it shows Lab 48 C 23 It has the Tories on 45 seats, but the Lib Dems winning only 12 of those 300+ lost Tory seats. Which is, frankly, ludicrous.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 8, 2023 21:54:39 GMT
oh yes the detailed seat findings are not credible. The voting intention figures however are not that dissimilar to plenty of other polls at the moment.
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 8, 2023 21:56:25 GMT
Lab: 509 (+307) SNP: 50 (+2) Con: 45 (-320) Lib: 23 (+12)
according to the model. Given that MRP can't tell what's happening 'on the ground', a pinch or two of salt is needed. Even if taking that fully in to account, the outlook for the Tories is beyond dire.
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 8, 2023 21:57:23 GMT
They show Labour gaining seats which we simply will not gain, e.g. Richmond (Sunak's seat, not mine where I live of course), SW Norfolk & Fareham - the latter seat one where we have not won a council seat for decades.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 8, 2023 22:15:18 GMT
Lab: 509 (+307) SNP: 50 (+2) Con: 45 (-320) Lib: 23 (+12) according to the model. Given that MRP can't tell what's happening 'on the ground', a pinch or two of salt is needed. Even if taking that fully in to account, the outlook for the Tories is beyond dire. not so much a pinch, more a whole warehouse full.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Feb 9, 2023 1:01:30 GMT
Lab: 509 (+307) SNP: 50 (+2) Con: 45 (-320) Lib: 23 (+12) according to the model. Given that MRP can't tell what's happening 'on the ground', a pinch or two of salt is needed. Even if taking that fully in to account, the outlook for the Tories is beyond dire. I’m sure there were multiple polls like this back in Truss’ day. Still, it would be amusing to see multiple ‘future leadership contenders’ lose and ironically only Sunak/Truss/or even May hold their seats (I agree their seats falling are a touch too far unless they make a complete mess of it locally or a high profile unity candidate a la Tatton stands) - but where would you draw the line? A tiny swing sees Raab out (and he’s too damaged now anyway), a slightly larger swing Hunt (again unlikely unless he believes in third time lucky) and I think following that the much-touted Wallace and Mordaunt need fairly high but not astronomical swings. Would that only leave Badenoch, Braverman and Tugendthat of the previous runners? And of other few senior people left, would Cleverly throw his hat in the ring? Braintree was Labour in ‘97 but surely a 24k majority is too much to overturn. Or his neighbour Patel? Welcome back Theresa May? In short, it would be quite something if the only people with considerable experience in high office left are two former PMs and the sitting one (assuming RS survives the local elections…). Even May has had shaky majorities in the past and had a swing against her last time but the LDs there I’d assume be pouring all their resources into Wokeingham regardless of whether Redwood stands again or not.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Feb 9, 2023 8:12:26 GMT
Remember that under new boundaries, May's home will be in the Earley and Woodley constituency, not Maidenhead. Which will be an interesting constituency.
As an MP who has always seen and portrayed herself as a local MP (even while PM), I'd be surprised if she stood in one that will come to not even border the one she would now live in.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 9, 2023 8:40:00 GMT
Raab has little chance of survival surely. And Hunt has opted for the less easy of the two options open to him, and will find it hard to hold on too.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 9, 2023 9:10:15 GMT
Raab has little chance of survival surely. And Hunt has opted for the less easy of the two options open to him, and will find it hard to hold on too. If the polls stay broadly as they are Tory seats with majorities of 10000-15000 ish over the Lib Dems, like Hunt’s, are going to be interesting. Blunt Uniform polls/ MRPs show the Lib Dems gaining them with little increase in their own vote and a close three way split with Labour. In practice it’s hard not to see the Lib Dems gaining more votes than polls would indicate in those types of seats, but if their polling rating stays at c.9%, whether they will attract loads of disaffected Tories and/ or tactical voters in those types of seats is the question. In 1997, whilst the Lib Dems did gain 20-25 seats some of the Tories least bad results were in the likes of Wells and Eastbourne where they held majorities of 6-8000 over the Lib Dems partly because the Labour vote increased too.
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