The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 16, 2021 9:07:46 GMT
So, a 13 point lead for the Tories which is just one point more at the GE - but they get all those extra seats?
And a near clean sweep for the SNP - even though they didn't manage that at the Holyrood elections just gone??
Hmmm.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 16, 2021 9:35:19 GMT
So, a 13 point lead for the Tories which is just one point more at the GE - but they get all those extra seats? And a near clean sweep for the SNP - even though they didn't manage that at the Holyrood elections just gone?? Hmmm.
And 18 months longer in power. The key question therefore is do they think they will be in a better position to win again in 3 and a half or 5 years time. Honestly I'd be tempted to call an election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2021 10:15:33 GMT
If they call an election in 2023, I think Burnham would still re-enter Parliament despite his term ending in 2024, citing the precedent of one Boris Johnson
After what happened in Hartlepool, the Tories gaining the remaining Labour-held Doncaster seats, Wentworth and a few other constituencies with a high Brexit Party vote share wouldn't be a total shock
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 16, 2021 10:18:17 GMT
There is little upside and much possible downside to the Tories calling an election *now*, I do agree that one in 2023 is a possibility.
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Post by justin124 on May 16, 2021 10:53:09 GMT
I suspect that these big leads are short term and spinoffs from Hartlepool and the Local Elections. News of the Indian variant will likely puncture a fair bit of the optimism and see the Tory lead falling back again. The high Green vote is also unlikely to be sustained in a GE.
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on May 16, 2021 11:11:34 GMT
There is little upside and much possible downside to the Tories calling an election *now*, I do agree that one in 2023 is a possibility. Also, it will allow the Conservatives to make major gains in 2023 in the District Council elections, where high turnouts tend to benefit them. |
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Post by justin124 on May 16, 2021 11:28:49 GMT
There is little upside and much possible downside to the Tories calling an election *now*, I do agree that one in 2023 is a possibility. Also, it will allow the Conservatives to make major gains in 2023 in the District Council elections, where high turnouts tend to benefit them. But the new electoral boundaries will not be operating in May 2023. Realistically , Autumn 2023 will be the earliest date to take advantage of such changes. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on May 16, 2021 11:35:31 GMT
What is the second Green seat they are projecting?
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Post by bjornhattan on May 16, 2021 11:39:50 GMT
What is the second Green seat they are projecting? I don't know their methodology, but it's possible there isn't one. If their projection works by adding probabilities, it could be that they give the Greens a 33% chance of winning each of (say) Bristol West, Sheffield Central, and the Isle of Wight, and that adds up to an extra seat for them even though they wouldn't be expected to win any of them individually. |
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Post by hullenedge on May 16, 2021 11:51:27 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 16, 2021 12:21:58 GMT
Also, it will allow the Conservatives to make major gains in 2023 in the District Council elections, where high turnouts tend to benefit them. But the new electoral boundaries will not be operating in May 2023. Realistically , Autumn 2023 will be the earliest date to take advantage of such changes. The realignment that has painted a load of undersized seats in the Midlands and North blue makes the boundaries much less important. |
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Post by justin124 on May 16, 2021 12:32:19 GMT
But the new electoral boundaries will not be operating in May 2023. Realistically , Autumn 2023 will be the earliest date to take advantage of such changes. The realignment that has painted a load of undersized seats in the Midlands and North blue makes the boundaries much less important. That will be true if it persists. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2021 14:52:24 GMT
There is of course no guarantee that the boundary changes will actually be to the Tories' benefit
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on May 16, 2021 15:20:01 GMT
I would caution people against citing the Hartlepool result as evidence that Labour are on course to lose many more seats if a general election were to be held. While the Brexit Party vote is clearly breaking for the Conservatives, the council results in Hartlepool concurrent with the by-election were significantly more disastrous for Labour than essentially anything they achieved anywhere else in the country, so do not seem particularly representative to say the least.
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Post by justin124 on May 16, 2021 15:26:36 GMT
I would caution people against citing the Hartlepool result as evidence that Labour are on course to lose many more seats if a general election were to be held. While the Brexit Party vote is clearly breaking for the Conservatives, the council results in Hartlepool concurrent with the by-election were significantly more disastrous for Labour than essentially anything they achieved anywhere else in the country, so do not seem particularly representative to say the least. I tend to agree - though it adds to the sense that the by election was a totally self inflicted wound for which Starmer deserves a great deal of flak. There was no reason for the by election to have happened at all - instead of persuading the sitting MP to resign ,the Whip could have been removed with him then able to sit as an Independent until the next GE. |
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on May 16, 2021 15:37:17 GMT
It would be very unwise to go unnecessarily early, and I doubt if anyone who matters is seriously considering it. In normal circumstances ( admittedly it feels like a while since anything was normal!) any Prime Minister , with a working majority and the decision in his or her hands , would look at four years and then, to be sure, use the window between then and full term to time an election to the governments advantage so far as that is possible. I see no reason to doubt that will be the same now once the necessary legislation is passed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2021 16:12:52 GMT
I doubt the SNP would win 58 seats. They didn't manage that in 2015 when they got 50% of the vote in Scotland.
I'd expect the Tories to hold Aberdeenshire West, Berwickshire, Dumfries and Dumfriesshire at least.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 16, 2021 17:18:11 GMT
There is little upside and much possible downside to the Tories calling an election *now*, I do agree that one in 2023 is a possibility. October 23. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on May 16, 2021 17:42:18 GMT
I doubt the SNP would win 58 seats. They didn't manage that in 2015 when they got 50% of the vote in Scotland. I'd expect the Tories to hold Aberdeenshire West, Berwickshire, Dumfries and Dumfriesshire at least. And I'd expect Ian Murray to hold on in Edinburgh South and the Lib Dems to hold Orkney and Shetland and probably Edinburgh West. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 16, 2021 18:07:09 GMT
I doubt the SNP would win 58 seats. They didn't manage that in 2015 when they got 50% of the vote in Scotland. I'd expect the Tories to hold Aberdeenshire West, Berwickshire, Dumfries and Dumfriesshire at least. And I'd expect Ian Murray to hold on in Edinburgh South and the Lib Dems to hold Orkney and Shetland and probably Edinburgh West. There will be boundary changes though. Not for O&S, of course. |
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