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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 16, 2021 18:21:58 GMT
I'd beware the Green surge on that poll. There's no guaranteeing that a good chunk of these people will even have a Green candidate to vote for, and one would assume that a good chunk of them would vote tactically for Labour in any event.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on May 16, 2021 18:24:19 GMT
And whilst the boundaries won't be exactly the same, Holyrood results would seem to suggest that NE Fife is likely to be a Lib Dem hold.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 16, 2021 18:28:04 GMT
And I'd expect Ian Murray to hold on in Edinburgh South and the Lib Dems to hold Orkney and Shetland and probably Edinburgh West. There will be boundary changes though. Not for O&S, of course. True, although the changes for Edinburgh could well be not that significant. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 17, 2021 11:53:17 GMT
I doubt the SNP would win 58 seats. They didn't manage that in 2015 when they got 50% of the vote in Scotland.I'd expect the Tories to hold Aberdeenshire West, Berwickshire, Dumfries and Dumfriesshire at least. More to the point, they didn't manage it this month - even though Holyrood elections have traditionally been better for them. |
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Post by swanseaoptimist on May 17, 2021 12:36:33 GMT
Appears to have Orkney & Shetland as the only non-SNP seat in Scotland, but they do note "this [SNP gains] might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model"
Has the Tories gaining 29 seats from Labour plus Westmoreland from the Lib Dems, but losing Lewes to Lib Dems, Ynys Mon to Plaid Cymru, and Bridgend to Lab, as well as all their Scottish seats to SNP.
Also has Labour losing Bristol West to Greens, Sheffield Hallam to Lib Dems & Edinburgh South to SNP.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 18, 2021 10:26:59 GMT
So basically a load of woo, as I suspected.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 10, 2021 22:32:50 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 11, 2021 8:20:48 GMT
Clicking on the Tweet reveals:- MRP Seat Forecast: CON: 311 (-54) LAB: 244 (+42) Preseli (2019 Maj 12%) falls but we must be stacking up votes somewhere to generate a 4% lead. Take with a pinch of salt but allowing for boundary changes we will probably require a 3-5% lead in 2023 for a majority. |
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polupolu
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Post by polupolu on Sept 11, 2021 9:15:31 GMT
Roughly the same sort of shift as the recent YouGov.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 11, 2021 9:23:18 GMT
This survey and the latest ComRes meant 151 Tory leads in a row before the latest YouGov finally reset the counter.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 13, 2021 8:32:11 GMT
Are the full tables for this available anywhere? I'm interested in seeing regional breaks more than individual constituencies (although those would be interesting too).
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 13, 2021 10:54:18 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2021 11:07:00 GMT
Yes, that sounds likely..... |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 13, 2021 11:22:09 GMT
Lib Dems to gain five seats in England but lose all 4 in Scotland to the SNPYes, that sounds likely..... Edinburgh South flips too.... |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 13, 2021 11:36:26 GMT
Yes, that sounds likely..... They also have Labour winning the new Leeds NW seat. Taking out Weetwood and Headingley, adding Horsforth and Guiseley, and unwinding the Lib Dem vote further in Otley and Adel (which is based on trying to squeeze Tory votes in 2019), that seems unlikely... |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2021 11:44:29 GMT
Well if they are using the proposed new (and very much unconfirmed) boundaries then it is going to be a bit of a s***show almost by definition  |
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 13, 2021 11:49:04 GMT
Yes, that sounds likely..... Edinburgh South flips too.... The SNP would gain 11 - so that's all of the seats they don't hold in Scotland. They're also forecast to win 5% of the vote across Great Britain - which depending on rounding translates to between 52% and 63% in Scotland. They're also overestimating Plaid - predicting them to get 1.1% of the vote which translates to almost 22% in Wales. I'm not saying that's impossible but it would be much better than their best ever performance at a general election thus far. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2021 12:11:55 GMT
For context, the most recent Scottish poll puts the SNP at 47% in a Westminster election.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 13, 2021 12:20:11 GMT
Well if they are using the proposed new (and very much unconfirmed) boundaries then it is going to be a bit of a s***show almost by definition They do seem to be using the new boundaries, yes. These guys think they can predict the results based on wards, thus enabling prediction after BC. But of course they don't actually know the ward data in general elections so they use demographics to partition the GE result, plus a bit of magic fiddling using local election resukts I think. The trouble is that the tactical situation in (for example) Leeds NW and Pudsey were very different at the last GE, and tactical voting is very important in all the marginal Scottish seats, and any seat anywhere held by the Lib Dems |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 13, 2021 12:29:10 GMT
Well if they are using the proposed new (and very much unconfirmed) boundaries then it is going to be a bit of a s***show almost by definition They do seem to be using the new boundaries, yes. These guys think they can predict the results based on wards, thus enabling prediction after BC. But of course they don't actually know the ward data in general elections so they use demographics to partition the GE result, plus a bit of magic fiddling using local election resukts I think. The trouble is that the tactical situation in (for example) Leeds NW and Pudsey were very different at the last GE, and tactical voting is very important in all the marginal Scottish seats, and any seat anywhere held by the Lib Dems The link given above for the MRP (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppoll_20210913.html) uses the existing boundaries, not the new ones. Indeed it would be hard to use new ones in Scotland... |
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