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Post by carlton43 on Nov 13, 2021 14:02:04 GMT
If that were the case we'd see 40% non-voters in every poll outside a GE campaign. We don't. I've canvassed non voters today who swear down they vote and voters who swear down they're nonvoters All those are English words and it looks like an English sentence! It seems to be gibberish when read. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 13, 2021 14:10:20 GMT
'The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.' Baxter... 🙄 The question is have they factored in tactical voting anywhere? If Baxter's involved I wouldn't bet on it... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2021 14:24:01 GMT
If that were the case we'd see 40% non-voters in every poll outside a GE campaign. We don't. I've canvassed non voters today who swear down they vote and voters who swear down they're nonvoters What's that got to do with owt? |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 13, 2021 14:29:13 GMT
I've canvassed non voters today who swear down they vote and voters who swear down they're nonvoters What's that got to do with owt? people lie all time to point where pollsters have to weight their polls so not to scew their findings. Sometimes not even intentionally. False recall increasingly happens, like in Hartlepool where almost no one remembers voting for Brexit Party despite them getting 25% of vote. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2021 14:31:23 GMT
What's that got to do with owt? people lie all time to point where pollsters have to weight their polls so not to scew their findings. Sometimes not even intentionally. False recall increasingly happens, like in Hartlepool where almost no one remembers voting for Brexit Party despite them getting 25% of vote. That's not actually relevant to the point about turnout though is it? The point is that this poll shows something vastly different to the majority of polls and that if showing low turnout outside a GE campaign were the norm it would show up in other polls which it simply doesn't |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 13, 2021 14:38:40 GMT
people lie all time to point where pollsters have to weight their polls so not to scew their findings. Sometimes not even intentionally. False recall increasingly happens, like in Hartlepool where almost no one remembers voting for Brexit Party despite them getting 25% of vote. That's not actually relevant to the point about turnout though is it? The point is that this poll shows something vastly different to the majority of polls and that if showing low turnout outside a GE campaign were the norm it would show up in other polls which it simply doesn't you asked why polls don't show 40% non voter. My point is that's because people lie about nonvoting |
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 13, 2021 15:51:05 GMT
'The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.' Baxter... 🙄 The question is have they factored in tactical voting anywhere? Notionals don’t and can’t take account of tactical voting in either old or new seats. There is always a health warning to say so on any serious calculation. There are methods - largely demographic - to deal with areas where there are many independents and/or there is limited participation from the main parties. The assumption is made where there are large discrepancies between local and national voting patterns that the relative performance in wards is in the same order. Mostly this works but anyone who has both calculated notionals and knows something about the area concerned will know that this isn’t always true. But adjusting by hand is dangerous, although again you might be able to apply demographics. Rallings and Thrasher are pretty good, if you have followed their notionals down the years. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 13, 2021 17:34:01 GMT
That's not actually relevant to the point about turnout though is it? The point is that this poll shows something vastly different to the majority of polls and that if showing low turnout outside a GE campaign were the norm it would show up in other polls which it simply doesn't you asked why polls don't show 40% non voter. My point is that's because people lie about nonvoting Mentioned before but back at the start of the 2017 campaign there was a Kantar (?) poll that gave us a 25% lead (50 to 25) however when you dug down into the data the poll was also forecasting a 47% turnout, which would have been shockingly low. You're right about voters/non-voters being less than truthful about their intentions. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 4, 2021 15:52:44 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Dec 6, 2021 20:23:33 GMT
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 6, 2021 21:05:31 GMT
That’s a properly hung, drawn and quartered Parliament! |
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 6, 2021 21:17:00 GMT
Sone fascinating swings here. Labour graining Ashfield from 3rd but Tories marginally holding onto Newcastle under lyme
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Dec 6, 2021 21:17:34 GMT
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322 
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Post by wallington on Dec 6, 2021 21:18:59 GMT
Why call yourself 'Find Out Now UK' though? Just sound proper cheap as a polling organisation, even if you were accurate.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 7, 2021 11:43:35 GMT
Last time they had the SNP winning 58 out of 59 Scottish seats, now its all 59.
As long as they continue to present such implausible outcomes there, I'm not sure how seriously the rest of their forecast should be taken.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 7, 2021 12:07:26 GMT
Sone fascinating swings here. Labour graining Ashfield from 3rd but Tories marginally holding onto Newcastle under lyme It is hard to see how their method could possibly account for the Ashfield Independents. If they disappear then Labour do probably win Ashfield |
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 7, 2021 12:44:13 GMT
Sone fascinating swings here. Labour graining Ashfield from 3rd but Tories marginally holding onto Newcastle under lyme It is hard to see how their method could possibly account for the Ashfield Independents. If they disappear then Labour do probably win Ashfield It is worth saying though that the Tory vote was squeezed by Zardozny too, not anywhere near as much to be fair but there's probably a good 10% of the vote they didn't pick up because it went to Jason instead |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 7, 2021 14:05:47 GMT
It is hard to see how their method could possibly account for the Ashfield Independents. If they disappear then Labour do probably win Ashfield It is worth saying though that the Tory vote was squeezed by Zardozny too, not anywhere near as much to be fair but there's probably a good 10% of the vote they didn't pick up because it went to Jason instead Well, more generally their methods probably work quite well in Lab Con marginals, which is what Ashfield would be without him. But what they don't take account of is targetting and tactical voting, where applying uniform swing to the previous election probably works better. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Dec 7, 2021 19:36:24 GMT
Very unlikely that the SNP would exceed 55 seats |
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Post by batman on Dec 7, 2021 23:29:57 GMT
Sone fascinating swings here. Labour graining Ashfield from 3rd but Tories marginally holding onto Newcastle under lyme It is hard to see how their method could possibly account for the Ashfield Independents. If they disappear then Labour do probably win Ashfield Not sure why the Ashfield Independents would disappear. Basically they are the Lib Dems in all but name in that constituency. |
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