|
|
Post by justin124 on Sept 13, 2021 15:02:51 GMT
This new outfit looks very dubious to me. Relying on local election results on a ward by ward basis simply does not work in the many areas where Indpendents dominate local government. That certainly applies to large chunks of Wales and Scotland.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2021 15:44:02 GMT
This new outfit looks very dubious to me. Relying on local election results on a ward by ward basis simply does not work in the many areas where Indpendents dominate local government. That certainly applies to large chunks of Wales and Scotland. Electoral Calculus is quite set in its ways. I'm not sure it has been ever truly audited. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 13, 2021 16:06:09 GMT
They do seem to be using the new boundaries, yes. These guys think they can predict the results based on wards, thus enabling prediction after BC. But of course they don't actually know the ward data in general elections so they use demographics to partition the GE result, plus a bit of magic fiddling using local election resukts I think. The trouble is that the tactical situation in (for example) Leeds NW and Pudsey were very different at the last GE, and tactical voting is very important in all the marginal Scottish seats, and any seat anywhere held by the Lib Dems The link given above for the MRP (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppoll_20210913.html) uses the existing boundaries, not the new ones. Indeed it would be hard to use new ones in Scotland... The interactive map within the link uses the new boundaries, and appears to be predicting on the basis of the current poll, although it his hard to be sure.. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Sept 13, 2021 17:02:55 GMT
The link given above for the MRP (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppoll_20210913.html) uses the existing boundaries, not the new ones. Indeed it would be hard to use new ones in Scotland... The interactive map within the link uses the new boundaries, and appears to be predicting on the basis of the current poll, although it his hard to be sure.. It's not very clear but those predictions were there before this poll and I think they're based on a more conventional notional calculation together with some modelling of what has changed since the election. There's also the "Browsable Seat Map" which shows current predictions for the existing seats, and that's a different prediction from this MRP. (At least it's different for Preseli Pembrokeshire, which was the first of the MRP's Labour gains I checked.) |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Sept 14, 2021 18:51:01 GMT
This new outfit looks very dubious to me. Relying on local election results on a ward by ward basis simply does not work in the many areas where Indpendents dominate local government. That certainly applies to large chunks of Wales and Scotland. It's also problematic for wards with a strong Lib Dem or Green presence where the party isn't actively targeting the Westminster seat. Such wards almost always include a very large proportion of voters who vote one way for the council and another way for parliament. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Sept 15, 2021 9:58:38 GMT
This new outfit looks very dubious to me. Relying on local election results on a ward by ward basis simply does not work in the many areas where Indpendents dominate local government. That certainly applies to large chunks of Wales and Scotland. It's also problematic for wards with a strong Lib Dem or Green presence where the party isn't actively targeting the Westminster seat. Such wards almost always include a very large proportion of voters who vote one way for the council and another way for parliament. Isn't that a general problem with the way notionals are done and not specific to Electoral Calculus? (And it's also nothing to do with the MRP which I don't think uses local election results at all.) |
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 12, 2021 21:49:04 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Nov 12, 2021 22:57:09 GMT
Looking at their detailed tables, one thing which stands out is the proportion of non-voters. They have it at about 43% - if that turned out to be true then it would result in the lowest turnout for over a century (on par with 1918). |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Nov 12, 2021 22:59:01 GMT
Looking at their detailed tables, one thing which stands out is the proportion of non-voters. They have it at about 43% - if that turned out to be true then it would result in the lowest turnout for over a century (on par with 1918). this,ofc we aren't in election mode atm but still depressing |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
|
Post by Khunanup on Nov 12, 2021 23:01:19 GMT
'The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.' Baxter... 🙄 |
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 12, 2021 23:18:51 GMT
Looking at their detailed tables, one thing which stands out is the proportion of non-voters. They have it at about 43% - if that turned out to be true then it would result in the lowest turnout for over a century (on par with 1918). None of the main parties are generating much sense of enthusiasm so I could believe this. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 12, 2021 23:21:49 GMT
Looking at their detailed tables, one thing which stands out is the proportion of non-voters. They have it at about 43% - if that turned out to be true then it would result in the lowest turnout for over a century (on par with 1918). None of the main parties are generating much sense of enthusiasm so I could believe this. Agree and that's probably causing the Green% to rise. Small fish in a shrinking pool. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 13, 2021 8:15:02 GMT
Looking at the data tables and 96 seats forecast to have turnouts below 50% whilst eleven exceed 70% (Dunbartonshire East top).
|
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Nov 13, 2021 9:10:14 GMT
'The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.' Baxter... 🙄 just to clarify Martin Baxter doesn't have anything to do with the MRP, elec calc produce the results but its findoutnow who collect and crunch the data, right? |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 13, 2021 9:19:57 GMT
'The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.' Baxter... 🙄 just to clarify Martin Baxter doesn't have anything to do with the MRP, elec calc produce the results but its findoutnow who collect and crunch the data, right? Reading the website I'd say that he is involved. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_polling.html |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 13, 2021 11:56:03 GMT
'The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.' Baxter... 🙄 The question is have they factored in tactical voting anywhere? |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 13, 2021 12:28:28 GMT
' The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.' Baxter... 🙄 Which would mean all but one Scottish seat (and 2 more than in 2015) why even bother with such a ridiculous "prediction". Not buying that turnout forecast either. |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Nov 13, 2021 13:33:44 GMT
' The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.' Baxter... 🙄 Which would mean all but one Scottish seat (and 2 more than in 2015) why even bother with such a ridiculous "prediction". Not buying that turnout forecast either. the turnout seems to be the most normal thing about this poll. With no prospect GE a large number of people probably won't vote atm |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2021 13:38:22 GMT
If that were the case we'd see 40% non-voters in every poll outside a GE campaign. We don't.
|
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Nov 13, 2021 13:56:39 GMT
If that were the case we'd see 40% non-voters in every poll outside a GE campaign. We don't. I've canvassed non voters today who swear down they vote and voters who swear down they're nonvoters |
|
