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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 20:32:54 GMT
Asians will certainly sometimes vote for Asians who stand for the Tories. And sometimes on the basis of local politics far away. But being an Asian candidate is no guarantee of getting Asian votes. Absolutely - if anything if they are a particularly poor candidate they could even end up repelling said voters. I wouldn't be surprised if Shaun Bailey didn't do any better than other Conservative candidates in Camberwell and Peckham for example. A local example to me - the Tories chose a local Jewish candidate in the Sedgley ward who misspelled Prestwich three different times and lost the seat by a considerable margin to the non-Jewish Labour candidate. If there's anything Starmer has achieved it has been putting the anti-Semitism problem to rest. Back to Batley - I think everyone can agree that what is needed from all parties is a solid local candidate of whatever race or religion. The idea of Paul Williams standing (which has been touted on Twitter by several, but not sure how seriously) is extremely worrying and it would be so bad it would almost be impressive to see how much political antennae could be lacking if he is even close to being chosen, following the initial 'sacking' of Rayner. I would think the idea of recycling Paul Williams in Batley after his success in Hartlepool is probably a bit ironic! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 10, 2021 20:40:01 GMT
Absolutely - if anything if they are a particularly poor candidate they could even end up repelling said voters. I wouldn't be surprised if Shaun Bailey didn't do any better than other Conservative candidates in Camberwell and Peckham for example. A local example to me - the Tories chose a local Jewish candidate in the Sedgley ward who misspelled Prestwich three different times and lost the seat by a considerable margin to the non-Jewish Labour candidate. If there's anything Starmer has achieved it has been putting the anti-Semitism problem to rest. Back to Batley - I think everyone can agree that what is needed from all parties is a solid local candidate of whatever race or religion. The idea of Paul Williams standing (which has been touted on Twitter by several, but not sure how seriously) is extremely worrying and it would be so bad it would almost be impressive to see how much political antennae could be lacking if he is even close to being chosen, following the initial 'sacking' of Rayner. I would think the idea of recycling Paul Williams in Batley after his success in Hartlepool is probably a bit ironic!
Would he be standing against George Jabbour?
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Post by Merseymike on May 10, 2021 20:48:00 GMT
Galloway's probably dead on arrival, but I really wouldn't be surprised by the Asian community swinging Conservative (in terms of margin, at least), so long as the Conservatives avoid abnormal levels of race-baiting. Hindus and Sikhs in London have been swinging Tory I saw, but I don't think Muslims are. Keep in mind Boris's comments about Islamic dress. There are polling districts where you would soon spot that in the verification though. Not sure whether it's quite as noticeable among Sihks. Slough, Southall and Feltham & Heston still seem pretty strong for Labour |
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 20:53:09 GMT
Hindus and Sikhs in London have been swinging Tory I saw, but I don't think Muslims are. Keep in mind Boris's comments about Islamic dress. There are polling districts where you would soon spot that in the verification though. Not sure whether it's quite as noticeable among Sihks. Slough, Southall and Feltham & Heston still seem pretty strong for Labour Just what I read somewhere Mike! I know little or nothing about London |
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 10, 2021 20:53:25 GMT
I'm almost certain of a Labour hold here , for reasons many have already elucidated about the presence of a Muslim Labour block vote . This vote has been very effectively mobilised in parliamentary by-elections before like Peterborough and Oldham West and Royton. Muslim voters will probably make up about a third of the electorate here and the Tories will need to run up big margins in Birstall and Birkenshaw, liversedge and Gomersal and Cleckheaton to counteract big turnouts in Batley and the increasingly Muslim Heckmondwike . UKIP's campaign in Oldham was horrendous. They were really, really shit at parliamentary elections. Running a BNP type campaign in a diverse area was a bit dim. Some of these areas are populated by the least number of voters who'd back a racist campaign. |
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Post by ideal4radio on May 10, 2021 21:51:18 GMT
I know nothing of Batley, except that my Great, great, great Grandfather was Joseph Jubb, the 1st Mayor of Batley !!
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Post by cmarsh on May 10, 2021 22:35:45 GMT
I think, there is a large distinction to be made between mill towns, and mining areas (where Tories are doing so well at the moment). Former has a lot of ethnic minorities, not as entrenched former Labour voting traditions (e.g. I would argue, a lot of the results in the NE can be explained by “my mum & dad always voted Labour”, no longer applying, a correction so to speak - the original Red Wall as pioneered by Kanasagooriam.), more metropolitan in West Yorkshire too (broken up by hills and green belt). Hence why I think Labour should (only just) manage to hold Batley and Spen.
All depends on turnout though I think. Also, it would be interesting to see how many of the former fringe right parties that stood last time, will stand again in this seat. Perhaps English Democrats will hold their deposit this time? If they campaign hard. Heritage Party came fourth in Hartlepool too, should stand here.
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 23:54:04 GMT
I think, there is a large distinction to be made between mill towns, and mining areas (where Tories are doing so well at the moment). Former has a lot of ethnic minorities, not as entrenched former Labour voting traditions (e.g. I would argue, a lot of the results in the NE can be explained by “my mum & dad always voted Labour”, no longer applying, a correction so to speak - the original Red Wall as pioneered by Kanasagooriam.), more metropolitan in West Yorkshire too (broken up by hills and green belt). Hence why I think Labour should (only just) manage to hold Batley and Spen. All depends on turnout though I think. Also, it would be interesting to see how many of the former fringe right parties that stood last time, will stand again in this seat. Perhaps English Democrats will hold their deposit this time? If they campaign hard. Heritage Party came fourth in Hartlepool too, should stand here. Batley and Spen was a mining area too you know! |
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Post by peterski on May 11, 2021 0:41:02 GMT
If Labour nominate Dr Paul Williams and the Tories George Jabbour my money is going to be on Count Binface.
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Post by cmarsh on May 11, 2021 1:02:33 GMT
I think, there is a large distinction to be made between mill towns, and mining areas (where Tories are doing so well at the moment). Former has a lot of ethnic minorities, not as entrenched former Labour voting traditions (e.g. I would argue, a lot of the results in the NE can be explained by “my mum & dad always voted Labour”, no longer applying, a correction so to speak - the original Red Wall as pioneered by Kanasagooriam.), more metropolitan in West Yorkshire too (broken up by hills and green belt). Hence why I think Labour should (only just) manage to hold Batley and Spen. All depends on turnout though I think. Also, it would be interesting to see how many of the former fringe right parties that stood last time, will stand again in this seat. Perhaps English Democrats will hold their deposit this time? If they campaign hard. Heritage Party came fourth in Hartlepool too, should stand here. Batley and Spen was a mining area too you know! Never knew that. In that case, will refine to predominant industry. You can tell I do a quantitative subject at uni as opposed to essay based 😅 |
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Post by andrew111 on May 11, 2021 6:10:34 GMT
Batley and Spen was a mining area too you know! Never knew that. In that case, will refine to predominant industry. You can tell I do a quantitative subject at uni as opposed to essay based 😅 If you go to the Oakwell country Park near Birstall you can read about the coal mine that was there while your kids take advantage of the playground. (and then go to Oakwell Hall, if the council reopen it after the pandemic. It was on short time in 2019, but is a hidden gem) |
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right
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Post by right on May 11, 2021 7:08:23 GMT
It’s not a good thing that people assume that the Asian vote is guaranteed for Labour. That is part of what is driving the “ white vote” to feel inclined to vote Conservative. Tribalism isn’t just about class. And it’s no good calling the one racism while being complacent about the other. That's true now in a number of places, where I suspect Labour will start to be perceived as the " Asian " party. In Pendle, all 10 of Labour's Councillors are from the Asian Community despite it numbering only around 15% of residents, and in Burnley, 10/18, with the Asian community representing only 11% or so of the population. One of Burnley's Council wards has a postal vote figure of over 30%, whereas the average for the other 14 wards is around 15% which again will reinforce certain prejudices and suspicions This doesn't bode well for " Community cohesion " , sadly ...  Yes, postal votes screams out at me here The electoral legislation within the Queen's Speech could well be brought forward if there was a credible suggestion of vote farming, as there was in Peterborough. Any principled opposition, particularly in the Lords, could be easily presented as defending an unfair partisan advantage if there is a narrow Labour margin helped by postal votes. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 11, 2021 7:48:01 GMT
That's true now in a number of places, where I suspect Labour will start to be perceived as the " Asian " party. In Pendle, all 10 of Labour's Councillors are from the Asian Community despite it numbering only around 15% of residents, and in Burnley, 10/18, with the Asian community representing only 11% or so of the population. One of Burnley's Council wards has a postal vote figure of over 30%, whereas the average for the other 14 wards is around 15% which again will reinforce certain prejudices and suspicions This doesn't bode well for " Community cohesion " , sadly ... Yes, postal votes screams out at me here The electoral legislation within the Queen's Speech could well be brought forward if there was a credible suggestion of vote farming, as there was in Peterborough. Any principled opposition, particularly in the Lords, could be easily presented as defending an unfair partisan advantage if there is a narrow Labour margin helped by postal votes. There has been quite a big crack down on PV fraud in Kirklees and the elections officers certainly take it seriously. Of course you can't stop voting being influenced by dominant family members and potentially "community leaders" but the days of one person signing hundreds of PV forms are over. I can have a check of PV in polling districts in Huddersfield some time when I have time but I suspect the highest percentage will be in white middle class areas. The Tories are said to win the PV in GE in Huddersfield while Barry Sheerman wins on the day |
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Post by hullenedge on May 11, 2021 7:51:06 GMT
Never knew that. In that case, will refine to predominant industry. You can tell I do a quantitative subject at uni as opposed to essay based 😅 If you go to the Oakwell country Park near Birstall you can read about the coal mine that was there while your kids take advantage of the playground. (and then go to Oakwell Hall, if the council reopen it after the pandemic. It was on short time in 2019, but is a hidden gem) Didn't we come within of a whisper of Birstall & Birkenshaw being renamed Oakwell? |
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Post by andrew111 on May 11, 2021 7:51:19 GMT
That's true now in a number of places, where I suspect Labour will start to be perceived as the " Asian " party. In Pendle, all 10 of Labour's Councillors are from the Asian Community despite it numbering only around 15% of residents, and in Burnley, 10/18, with the Asian community representing only 11% or so of the population. One of Burnley's Council wards has a postal vote figure of over 30%, whereas the average for the other 14 wards is around 15% which again will reinforce certain prejudices and suspicions This doesn't bode well for " Community cohesion " , sadly ... Yes, postal votes screams out at me here The electoral legislation within the Queen's Speech could well be brought forward if there was a credible suggestion of vote farming, as there was in Peterborough. Any principled opposition, particularly in the Lords, could be easily presented as defending an unfair partisan advantage if there is a narrow Labour margin helped by postal votes. You are sounding like Trump, trying to invalidate the electoral process in advance in case you don't get the "right result" |
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2021 7:59:34 GMT
That's true now in a number of places, where I suspect Labour will start to be perceived as the " Asian " party. In Pendle, all 10 of Labour's Councillors are from the Asian Community despite it numbering only around 15% of residents, and in Burnley, 10/18, with the Asian community representing only 11% or so of the population. One of Burnley's Council wards has a postal vote figure of over 30%, whereas the average for the other 14 wards is around 15% which again will reinforce certain prejudices and suspicions This doesn't bode well for " Community cohesion " , sadly ... Yes, postal votes screams out at me here The electoral legislation within the Queen's Speech could well be brought forward if there was a credible suggestion of vote farming, as there was in Peterborough. Any principled opposition, particularly in the Lords, could be easily presented as defending an unfair partisan advantage if there is a narrow Labour margin helped by postal votes. If the conservative view on the Asian community is that they're thick and with no agency, then you don't need to make up unfounded fraud allegations to explain why those communities overwhelmingly vote for Labour. |
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2021 8:01:57 GMT
I've switched my vote to Labour hold so that the poll is tied
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Post by carlton43 on May 11, 2021 8:23:27 GMT
I know nothing of Batley, except that my Great, great, great Grandfather was Joseph Jubb, the 1st Mayor of Batley !! 'Are Nuu Nuthing of Baatlee ............... Buutt Are Nuu Wot Are Laiik. Beware the Jubb Jubb Bird and the Fumious JohnLooney. A By-Election for All Seasons! |
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Post by peterski on May 11, 2021 8:33:20 GMT
Regarding the global fame of Batley ; who can forget Monty Python's sketch of the Batley Townswomen's Guild and their re-enactment of the battle of Pearl Harbour?
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right
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Post by right on May 11, 2021 8:37:55 GMT
Yes, postal votes screams out at me here The electoral legislation within the Queen's Speech could well be brought forward if there was a credible suggestion of vote farming, as there was in Peterborough. Any principled opposition, particularly in the Lords, could be easily presented as defending an unfair partisan advantage if there is a narrow Labour margin helped by postal votes. You are sounding like Trump, trying to invalidate the electoral process in advance in case you don't get the "right result" Nothing like a personal insult to poison the well. It diminishes you. I'm not saying it's what they should do, it's just what they could do. There's going to be a very contentious piece of legislation coming through (as it happens I dislike the photo ID requirements) and if there's credible evidence that there is postal vote fraud this could well help pass it through, and associate opposition to the measures with fraud being advantageous to Labour. |
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