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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 15:39:41 GMT
William Hill are offering 1/4 on the Tories and 3/1 on Labour. I said the Tories would be odds on, and they are. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
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Post by middyman on May 10, 2021 15:40:37 GMT
Interesting to see when it will be called. The normal approach is to call asap, but would that be best at the moment? She’s already at the Chiltern Hundreds... If I was Labour I’d get it over and done with. If they hold great... if they get turned over Starmer will have to go. Then they’ll have a leadership election that takes about two years, as they always do.That would give many opportunities for the timing of an early general election. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on May 10, 2021 17:00:35 GMT
I live close by... Batley is Labour heavily... Heckmondwike is Labour too but the rest - all much more Tory. Birstall, Birkenshaw, Gomersal... all blue. Cleckheaton votes Lib Dem locally but I’d say it would break Tory at this present time. Tories will be cock a hoop, Labour deflated - I think that will be reflected in the campaign. For that reason I’m going to say a narrow Tory gain. Wasn't Heckmondwike the only Kirklees ward to have voted BNP at one point? I know that was a while ago but such a reputation sticks... Surely an Asian candidate would not go down well at all there, unless it has become more diverse itself over time. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 10, 2021 17:03:35 GMT
I live close by... Batley is Labour heavily... Heckmondwike is Labour too but the rest - all much more Tory. Birstall, Birkenshaw, Gomersal... all blue. Cleckheaton votes Lib Dem locally but I’d say it would break Tory at this present time. Tories will be cock a hoop, Labour deflated - I think that will be reflected in the campaign. For that reason I’m going to say a narrow Tory gain. Wasn't Heckmondwike the only Kirklees ward to have voted BNP at one point? I know that was a while ago but such a reputation sticks... Surely an Asian candidate would not go down well at all there, unless it has become more diverse itself over time. They have one Asian Cllr in Heckmondwike now, Aafaq Butt. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 10, 2021 18:01:35 GMT
Will the Heavy Woollen Independents put in a Shoddy effort?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2021 18:04:03 GMT
Wasn't Heckmondwike the only Kirklees ward to have voted BNP at one point? I know that was a while ago but such a reputation sticks... Surely an Asian candidate would not go down well at all there, unless it has become more diverse itself over time. They have one Asian Cllr in Heckmondwike now, Aafaq Butt. With a name like that he'll be popular on this forum |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 10, 2021 18:15:19 GMT
My initiaL vote in the Hartlepool poll was 'Labour Retain', but I changed to 'Conservative Gain' In the final weeks when the evidence became overwhelming. Here, I start feeling more strongly that the position will be 'Labour Retain'. It looks a more difficult target to me with an Asian element that will aid Labour, who I have thought for some time to be identified as the 'Asian Party' or at least the 'For the Asians' party, or the 'Immigrant Friendly' party? That of course does have at least a consequential rub off with a significant element of the White vote in tending to draw it to the Conservatives, but that will be markedly reduced if the Conservatives negative that effect by choosing an Asian candidate. In pure politics terms it is a matter of 'do they try to attract some of the Asian vote by choosing as Asian candidate' or capitalize on being 'not Asian' and thereby securing part of one end and losing much of the other end? I am convinced that the ethnic issue does play with a significant minority of both communities and an actual majority at times. AND Can we have a poll here please? The poll is set up. The only minor flaw is that I can't make our poll close when the actual polls here close, because we don't have a date for the by-election. So instead it's set to close at the end of June, at which point I'll reopen it (and manually close it on the evening of the election). The poll may also be changed if there are huge national shifts or if a notable independent stands - I was half minded to include the Heavy Woollen independents in the poll but we don't yet know whether they will offer a candidate. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 10, 2021 18:41:47 GMT
Wasn't Heckmondwike the only Kirklees ward to have voted BNP at one point? I know that was a while ago but such a reputation sticks... Surely an Asian candidate would not go down well at all there, unless it has become more diverse itself over time. They have one Asian Cllr in Heckmondwike now, Aafaq Butt. and last week it was the Tories who tried (narroely failed) to make it two. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 10, 2021 18:49:53 GMT
I understand that the Gorgeous One (Piss Be Upon Him) is considering returning from Scotland to contest this seat.
Would it be the Muslim-majority ward of Batley East that attracts him?
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 18:51:11 GMT
Galloway Party are standing it seems
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2021 18:54:26 GMT
oh ffs
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 19:06:05 GMT
I understand that the Gorgeous One (Piss Be Upon Him) is considering returning from Scotland to contest this seat. Would it be the Muslim-majority ward of Batley East that attracts him? Interestingly the majority of Asians in Batley East are from India (Gujarat), but they are overwhelmingly Muslim |
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Post by curiousliberal on May 10, 2021 19:08:07 GMT
Galloway's probably dead on arrival, but I really wouldn't be surprised by the Asian community swinging Conservative (in terms of margin, at least), so long as the Conservatives avoid abnormal levels of race-baiting.
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 19:20:24 GMT
Galloway's probably dead on arrival, but I really wouldn't be surprised by the Asian community swinging Conservative (in terms of margin, at least), so long as the Conservatives avoid abnormal levels of race-baiting. Hindus and Sikhs in London have been swinging Tory I saw, but I don't think Muslims are. Keep in mind Boris's comments about Islamic dress. There are polling districts where you would soon spot that in the verification though. |
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Post by peterski on May 10, 2021 19:37:22 GMT
I'm almost certain of a Labour hold here , for reasons many have already elucidated about the presence of a Muslim Labour block vote . This vote has been very effectively mobilised in parliamentary by-elections before like Peterborough and Oldham West and Royton. Muslim voters will probably make up about a third of the electorate here and the Tories will need to run up big margins in Birstall and Birkenshaw, liversedge and Gomersal and Cleckheaton to counteract big turnouts in Batley and the increasingly Muslim Heckmondwike .
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on May 10, 2021 19:53:32 GMT
Galloway's probably dead on arrival, but I really wouldn't be surprised by the Asian community swinging Conservative (in terms of margin, at least), so long as the Conservatives avoid abnormal levels of race-baiting. Hindus and Sikhs in London have been swinging Tory I saw, but I don't think Muslims are. Keep in mind Boris's comments about Islamic dress. There are polling districts where you would soon spot that in the verification though. There will be many exceptions though, a growing minority could well be due to satisfaction with the government (as has been seen across communities) - places like Pendle and Blackburn (where that Conservative candidate with the eccentric video won), Bolton and Oldham where there were swings against Labour. Yet nearby very white Wigan was an excellent result for Labour, though whether that was the Burnham/Nandy effect remains to be seen. As has been mentioned a significant minority if not a majority of Asian origin in less well-off areas voted leave on the basis of anti-EU migration ("why should Eastern Europeans get a free pass here?") - take UKIP's candidates in Bradford and Rochdale for example. So nobody of any community can be taken for granted. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 19:59:00 GMT
Hindus and Sikhs in London have been swinging Tory I saw, but I don't think Muslims are. Keep in mind Boris's comments about Islamic dress. There are polling districts where you would soon spot that in the verification though. There will be many exceptions though, a growing minority could well be due to satisfaction with the government (as has been seen across communities) - places like Pendle and Blackburn (where that Conservative candidate with the eccentric video won), Bolton and Oldham where there were swings against Labour. Yet nearby very white Wigan was an excellent result for Labour, though whether that was the Burnham/Nandy effect remains to be seen. As has been mentioned a significant minority if not a majority of Asian origin in less well-off areas voted leave on the basis of anti-EU migration ("why should Eastern Europeans get a free pass here?") - take UKIP's candidates in Bradford and Rochdale for example. So nobody of any community can be taken for granted. Asians will certainly sometimes vote for Asians who stand for the Tories. And sometimes on the basis of local politics far away. But being an Asian candidate is no guarantee of getting Asian votes. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 20:04:27 GMT
I'm almost certain of a Labour hold here , for reasons many have already elucidated about the presence of a Muslim Labour block vote . This vote has been very effectively mobilised in parliamentary by-elections before like Peterborough and Oldham West and Royton. Muslim voters will probably make up about a third of the electorate here and the Tories will need to run up big margins in Birstall and Birkenshaw, liversedge and Gomersal and Cleckheaton to counteract big turnouts in Batley and the increasingly Muslim Heckmondwike . It was 18.8% Muslim at the time of the 2011 census according to UKPollingReport. I note that an Asian standing as a Tory nearly won in Heckmondwike last Thursday. We may all be guilty of making too many assumptions. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on May 10, 2021 20:12:10 GMT
There will be many exceptions though, a growing minority could well be due to satisfaction with the government (as has been seen across communities) - places like Pendle and Blackburn (where that Conservative candidate with the eccentric video won), Bolton and Oldham where there were swings against Labour. Yet nearby very white Wigan was an excellent result for Labour, though whether that was the Burnham/Nandy effect remains to be seen. As has been mentioned a significant minority if not a majority of Asian origin in less well-off areas voted leave on the basis of anti-EU migration ("why should Eastern Europeans get a free pass here?") - take UKIP's candidates in Bradford and Rochdale for example. So nobody of any community can be taken for granted. Asians will certainly sometimes vote for Asians who stand for the Tories. And sometimes on the basis of local politics far away. But being an Asian candidate is no guarantee of getting Asian votes. Absolutely - if anything if they are a particularly poor candidate they could even end up repelling said voters. I wouldn't be surprised if Shaun Bailey didn't do any better than other Conservative candidates in Camberwell and Peckham for example. A local example to me - the Tories chose a local Jewish candidate in the Sedgley ward who misspelled Prestwich three different times and lost the seat by a considerable margin to the non-Jewish Labour candidate. If there's anything Starmer has achieved it has been putting the anti-Semitism problem to rest. Back to Batley - I think everyone can agree that what is needed from all parties is a solid local candidate of whatever race or religion. The idea of Paul Williams standing (which has been touted on Twitter by several, but not sure how seriously) is extremely worrying and it would be so bad it would almost be impressive to see how much political antennae could be lacking if he is even close to being chosen, following the initial 'sacking' of Rayner. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 10, 2021 20:16:30 GMT
I'm not sure if that is how it will be widely perceived locally - Brabin appears to be quite well liked. Yes, that dress is rather flattering... |
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