Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,677 
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Post by Jack on May 9, 2021 18:11:49 GMT
Now it's official.  |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on May 9, 2021 19:06:46 GMT
Surely it will be Labour to lose unless they get their act together. The run of Labour representation also only goes back to 1997 and not '64 like Hartlepool so it seems like it will be less of a surprise. Over 6,000 votes to a right-leaning Independent are up for grabs, and a 3,500 Labour majority. The only thing that can be said is perhaps those 6,000 independent (and around 1600 Brexit) votes couldn't stomach voting Tory but they could just as easily stay at home. Also the idea that Brexit party votes are also "couldn't make myself vote Tory" was blown out of the water in Hartlepool so...
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Post by curiousliberal on May 9, 2021 19:37:04 GMT
Someone is going to dig up Jo Cox's grave again and start a really grim event of the culture war, and everyone will lose as a result. Even if all the parties avoid turning it into a battleground, some hack in the press will raise it for clickbait's sake.
I already feel sorry for the constituents.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on May 9, 2021 19:44:12 GMT
Is Paul Halloran likely to run again?
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edgbaston
Labour
Posts: 4,362
Member is Online
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Post by edgbaston on May 9, 2021 19:57:31 GMT
This seat is not ‘like Hartlepool’ or a ‘Labour heartland’. But will be referred to as such multiple times over the coming weeks by a brigade utterly clueless journalists.
I really hope this thread can be the sole place of reasonable and informed comment on what is quite a complex constituency with an interesting history in many ways.
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Post by elinorhelyn on May 9, 2021 20:01:22 GMT
If Tory gain this would this be their least white seat outside London. Maybe one of their WM seats is even less white.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on May 9, 2021 20:05:48 GMT
If Tory gain this would this be their least white seat outside London. Maybe one of their WM seats is even less white. Without looking anything up and therefore possibly wrong, but doubt it. It was the more diverse seats across the Black Country like Walsall South and Warley that Labour held on to |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 9, 2021 20:06:16 GMT
If Tory gain this would this be their least white seat outside London. Maybe one of their WM seats is even less white.
What you talking about, its in Yorkshire, of course its a completely white (and not for example red) seat.
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,417
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Post by Merseymike on May 9, 2021 20:15:40 GMT
If Tory gain this would this be their least white seat outside London. Maybe one of their WM seats is even less white. More so than Wycombe or Wolverhampton South West? |
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Post by greenchristian on May 9, 2021 20:20:38 GMT
This seat is not ‘like Hartlepool’ or a ‘Labour heartland’. But will be referred to as such multiple times over the coming weeks by a brigade utterly clueless journalists. I really hope this thread can be the sole place of reasonable and informed comment on what is quite a complex constituency with an interesting history in many ways. I really hope that there are other corners of the internet which also have reasonable and informed comment on the constituency. Though I obviously would be shocked to see it from any major media outlet. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2021 20:22:21 GMT
If Tory gain this would this be their least white seat outside London. Maybe one of their WM seats is even less white. More so than Wycombe or Wolverhampton South West? Yes both of those - Wolves SW is massively more non-White (about 35% compared with 20%). Also both West Bromwich seats, Watford |
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Post by lancastrian on May 9, 2021 20:30:53 GMT
More so than Wycombe or Wolverhampton South West? Yes both of those - Wolves SW is massively more non-White (about 35% compared with 20%). Also both West Bromwich seats, Watford Also Wolves NE and Peterborough, though those were close. In terms of northern mill towns it's only very slightly less white than Dewsbury or Pendle. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 0:45:39 GMT
It is not Hartlepool, but it is another seat that would already be Tory but for the intervention of the BXP and a well known right wing independent. And I don't think the Tories tried very hard in 2019 compared to Colne Valley or Dewsbury, but not sure about that
I do live about a mile from one corner of this seat. Oakwell Hall is well worth a visit..
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Post by carlton43 on May 10, 2021 1:03:47 GMT
Oh! Happy Days! The Party that keeps on giving.
Corbyn, Starmer, 2019, Hartlepool, bungled re-shuffle, and now Batley.
Dear friends! You spoil us.
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Post by seanryanj on May 10, 2021 1:41:21 GMT
[br I see the no mayor says undoubtedly it will be a labour win! Surely say we are going to listen work etc |
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 10, 2021 7:26:18 GMT
I live close by...
Batley is Labour heavily... Heckmondwike is Labour too but the rest - all much more Tory.
Birstall, Birkenshaw, Gomersal... all blue.
Cleckheaton votes Lib Dem locally but I’d say it would break Tory at this present time.
Tories will be cock a hoop, Labour deflated - I think that will be reflected in the campaign.
For that reason I’m going to say a narrow Tory gain.
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Post by elinorhelyn on May 10, 2021 8:42:52 GMT
I live close by... Batley is Labour heavily... Heckmondwike is Labour too but the rest - all much more Tory. Birstall, Birkenshaw, Gomersal... all blue. Cleckheaton votes Lib Dem locally but I’d say it would break Tory at this present time. Tories will be cock a hoop, Labour deflated - I think that will be reflected in the campaign. For that reason I’m going to say a narrow Tory gain. I think Labour can get a few votes out of Gomersal if their lucky. The Western part of Cleckheaton will be good for Labour as well |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on May 10, 2021 8:50:00 GMT
Tories will be cock a hoop, Labour deflated - I think that will be reflected in the campaign. This will surely be a factor. Who from crushed Labour is going out to campaign in the rain over the next few weeks as pubs open? |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,417
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Post by Merseymike on May 10, 2021 8:56:55 GMT
Tories will be cock a hoop, Labour deflated - I think that will be reflected in the campaign. This will surely be a factor. Who from crushed Labour is going out to campaign in the rain over the next few weeks as pubs open? Which is why Labour should pick a shortlist of people favoured by the local party, rather than try and parachute someone in. The constituency has a history of diligent local MP's who care little for the party line and prioritise Batley and Spen. Both Elizabeth Peacock and Mike Wood were in that mould. Very different politically, but both were very tuned in to local issues. Peacock was quite critical of Tory housing policies, for example, thought nationally people knew her for getting caught out saying she's have capital (or was it corporal?) punishment live on the National Lottery! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 8:58:18 GMT
Batley & Spen is estimated to have voted 60% Leave so less Brexity than Hartlepool by quite a bit.
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